Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Jordan Walker, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50/60 | 55/45 | 50 | 40/50 | 80 |
Background: Just three years removed from the 2020 draft, and it’s already apparent that the first round is pockmarked with tons of disappointment and stalled development. Spencer Torkelson, the #1 overall pick that year, looked dreadful during his debut in Detroit last season. Miami’s Max Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery. Asa Lacy, the fourth overall selection, lost all feel for the strike zone. Austin Martin’s already been traded and has overwhelmed in Double-A. Austin Hendrick swings and missed too frequently. Patrick Bailey’s hit tool has regressed. Ed Howard, Carson Tucker, and Aaron Sabato haven’t hit – at all. But the Cardinals do what they seemingly always do – they didn’t miss. Equipped with the 21st overall pick that year, the front office opted to take prep third baseman Jordan Walker. A product of Decatur High School, Walker, according to most reports, had the skillset in place but there were questions about his actual hit tool. A year later, once he debuted with St. Louis’s Low-A affiliate, Walker answered every single question and established himself as one of the game’s preeminent prospects. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder, who split time between third base and the outfield, mashed .317/.388/.548 with 25 doubles, four triples, 14 homeruns, and 14 stolen bases in only 82 games two years ago between Palm Beach and Peoria. Last season the organization sent him up to the minors’ most challenging level – Double-A – and Walker didn’t miss a beat. Appearing in 119 games with Springfield, the budding middle-of-the-lineup thumper bashed .306/.388/.510 with 31 doubles, three triples, 19 homeruns, and 22 stolen bases (in 27 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 28%. Walker spent the fall with the Salt River Rafters, hitting .286/.367/.558 with 11 extra-base knocks in 21 games.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 20-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 123 and 133 in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Billy Butler, Luis Urias, Nomar Mazara, Jake Bauers, Orlando Arcia, and – of course – Jordan Walker.
While Walker’s defense at third base continues to improve, it’s still below-average. In his limited time in the outfield last season, though, he showed Gold Glove caliber potential. Speed, power, hitting for average, defense. Walker ticks off every important checkbox on either side of the ball. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound burgeoning star hasn’t full tapped into his plus-power potential, but it’s coming – and quickly. Really, really good-looking swing, Walker shows an innate ability to (A) adjust mid-pitch to offspeed offerings, (B) take the pitch the other way, and (C) absolutely destroy mistakes. His numbers are a little inflated by Springfield’s home ballpark, but he still mashed on the road (.283/.370/.481). Walker is a prototypical Cardinals-type player, and he’s poised to step in for Paul Goldschmidt when his bat finally slows. There’s the potential to become a perennial .300/.370/.550 slugger, adding 30 doubles, 35 homer, and 20 stolen bases. He’s on his way to being Matt Holliday 2.0.
Ceiling: 6.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Tink Hence, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 70 | 70 | 60 | 60 |
Background: It’s undeniable that the organization hit a mammoth homerun with their 2020 draft just by selecting Jordan Walker in the opening round. But their draft class moved into a different stratosphere with the emergence of wiry right-hander Tink Hence (and that doesn’t account for Masyn Winn either). Hence, who was taken 42 picks after Walker, turned in an intriguing, albeit short, debut in the Complex League that summer – he posted a 14-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only eight innings pitched. Then the Cardinals did the prudent thing. They unleashed the right-handed version of Godzilla onto the unsuspecting hitters in Low-A. Limited to just turning the opposition’s lineup less than two times per game, the 6-foot-1, 175-pound right-hander looked like the second coming of Pedro Martinez as he tallied a sparkling 81-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 52.1 innings of work. For those counting at home, he averaged 13.9 strikeouts and just 2.6 walks per nine innings. Hence finished the year with a 1.38 ERA, 1.59 FIP, and a laughably impossible 1.94 xFIP. He made nine additional appearances working out of the Salt River Rafters’ bullpen in the Arizona Fall League as well, fanning nine and walking a quartet. He allowed just four hits and two earned runs during that time frame.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been 333 instances in which a 19-year-old tossed at least 50 innings in the any Low-A league. Tink Hence’s strikeout percentage, 41.5%, is the highest over the past 17 seasons. Subsequently, his strikeout-to-walk percentage, 33.9%, also is the highest as well – by a wide margin.
The argument could be made that Hence is the best pitching prospect in baseball, not Miami’s Eury Perez nor Philadelphia’s Andrew Painter nor Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez nor Cleveland’s Daniel Espino. Electric arsenal, it’s the type that doesn’t come along very often. And I don’t think its sacrilege to say that it could be generational. Explosive, late-life mid- to upper-90s fastball that was sitting in 94- to 97-mph range and touching 98 mph against his midseason start against the Bradenton Marauders. His breaking ball, often called a curveball, is actually a slider (the backstop signals with three fingers) is so wickedly devastating. It’s hard with unfair tilt and depth. And his changeup is Bugs Bunny-esque, showing tremendous velocity separation (about 12 mph difference) with arm-side fade. The sky’s – literally – the limit for the former second rounder. And for the sake of baseball and baseball fans everywhere, I hope that Hence can avoid the vaunted injury nexus because he’s going to special with the chance to be generational. You don’t have to squint too hard to see flashes of a young Pedro Martinez. It’s doubtful he transcends the game the way Martinez did, but – man – if there’s any young pitcher that could do it, well, Hence would be my pick.
Ceiling: 5.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Masyn Winn, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 35/45 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Winn was part of the club’s vaunted – and potentially historic – 2020 draft class. A product of Kingwood High School, St. Louis selected the 5-foot-11, 180-pound dynamo in the second round, 54th overall, and handed him a hefty $2.1million deal. Winn began his professional career with Palm Beach two years ago, hitting a respectable .262/.370/.388 through 61 games, and then spent the remainder of the season – mostly struggling – with Peoria. Unsurprisingly, the former Bonus Baby found his way back to High-A to begin the 2022 campaign. This time, though, the results were incredible. Winn mashed the opposition to the tune of .349/.404/.566 through 33 games and looked like a legitimate top prospect in his extended stint at the most challenging minor league level – Double-A. He finished his second full season with an aggregate .283/.364/.468 slash line with 36 doubles, eight triples, 12 homeruns, and 43 stolen bases (in only 48 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 17%. Winn was named to the 2022 Futures Game as well.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, a walk rate north of 10%, and a strikeout rate between 20% and 23%. Those two hitters: Wil Myers and Masyn Winn.
Winn opened a lot of eyes and garnered even more social media attention when he unfurled a 100 mph throw from shortstop during the Futures Game last summer. But as noted in the 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook, that’s nothing new for the former two-way prep star. The real progress, though, was made at the dish. The offensive sparkplug developed more pop leading to a career high in extra-base hits while maintaining strong patience at the plate and consistent contact rates. Plus speed, above-average bat speed, improving hit tool, and a nose for first base. Throw in Gold Glove caliber defense and Winn has the makings of a valuable big league infielder. In terms of big league ceiling, think something along the lines of .260/.340/.415.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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4. Alec Burleson, LF / RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A part of what’s quickly becoming one of the franchise’s best draft classes in recent memory – and, perhaps, in their entire history. St. Louis selected the East Carolina University slugger in the second round three years ago, 70th overall, after a stellar sophomore and junior campaigns. Burleson’s collegiate career began slowly as he batted a lowly, power-deficient .252/.325/.282 in 49 games with the Pirates. But after shredding the Cal Ripken Collegiate Baseball League competition that summer (.383/.444/.776), Burleson returned to school with a vengeance as he mashed .370/.399/.573. And he continued to slaughter the opposition during his COVID-abbreviated 2020 season too – .375/.440/.547. The former two-way star showed no signs of slowing at the plate as he moved into the professional ranks as well, hitting an aggregate .270/.329/.454 between stops in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A in 2021. Last season he raised the bar even further during his time with Memphis, slugging .331/.372/.532 with 25 doubles, one triple, 20 homeruns, and four stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 37%. Burleson, barely just two years removed from college, cracked the Cardinals’ lineup for 16 games as well, hitting .188/.264/.271 with one double and one homerun.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 23-year-old hitters posted a 132 to 142 wRC+ with a sub-17% strikeout rate in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Chris Carter, Alberto Callaspo, Corban Joseph, L.J. Hoes, Devin Mesoraco, and Alec Burleson.
At some point Burleson has to stumble, at least once – right? Within two years he went from starring at East Carolina to briefly starting for one of the best run organizations in baseball. He’s 228 games into his minor league career and he owns a .300/.350/.492 slash line with above-average power, a 55-grade hit tool, and no discernible platoon splits. Throw in average defense at either corner outfield position and Burleson has the makings of a league average starter, maybe more if he doesn’t stop hitting. Reasonable baseline: .270/.335/.450.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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5. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: It’s generally bad for business to get involved with the Rays on any type of transaction because, well, they’ll probably pull the wool over your eyes and you’ll have no idea how they evaluated your players better than you did. But the Cardinals, who have a long track record of successful player evaluation, threw caution to the wind in early January 2002 and agreed on a four-player, two-draft pick deal with the AL East contending club. The specifics of the swap: Tampa Bay acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena, declining infielder / outfielder Jose Martinez, and a supplemental first round pick for Matthew Liberatore, minor league backstop Edgardo Rodriguez, and a supplemental second round selection. The Rays added Arizona State University infielder Alika Williams with their newly acquired supplemental pick and the Cardinals, well, the used their selection on Tink Hence, who’s developing into one of the game’s best prospects. So while Liberatore hasn’t established himself as a viable big league option – yet – the deal still appears to be a win-win. Acquired with the 16th overall pick in 2018, Liberatore spent the past two seasons working out of the Memphis Redbirds’ rotation. He’s posted a 239-to-74 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 239.2 innings of work to go along with an aggregate 4.58 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 22-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage between 22.5% to 24.5% in any Triple-A league (min. 100 IP): Lucas Giolito, Gio Gonzalez, Zac Gallen, Mike Foltynewicz, Brad Hand, and – of course – former Tampa Bay Ray Matthew Liberatore. Giolito, Gonzalez, and Gallen are / were above-average starting pitchers at the game’s pinnacle level. Foltynewicz was a league average arm – briefly – with one All-Star season on his resume. Hand is a three-time All-Star closer.
Liberatore was throwing significantly harder than 2021. Instead of sitting 92- to 94-mph, the big, thick-bodied southpaw was consistently sitting 94- to 95-mph and touching 96 mph on occasion. The problem, of course, is that the velocity has moved into plus territory, but it’s more hittable than you’d expect, downgrading it into above-average range. His changeup is a solid-average offering but doesn’t show a whole lot of velocity separation, ranging about 7- to 8-mph slower. And it appears that he slows down when he’s throwing it as well. His slider didn’t look as sharp as previous seasons. And his curveball, which he doesn’t throw as often as he should, is his best offspeed weapon. It’s hard to believe because it feels like he’s been around forever, but Liberatore is only entering his age-23 season and has logged two full years in Triple-A. He’s ready for the big leagues now and could grab the club’s #5 gig. Danny Duffy’s made over $70 million in his career as – mostly – a fringy league average arm. Liberatore’s going to hover in the same neighborhood. He’s likely going to average around 8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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6. Leonardo Bernal, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 55/60 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The Cardinals are always on the hunt for the next big catching prospect – or at least that’s how it seems. But they have a knack for developing backstops that make it to the big leagues. Carson Kelly, Andrew Knizner, and Ivan Herrera all immediately come to mind. And the latest promising youngster the club unearthed – Leonardo Bernal. Signed out of Panama for $680,000 two years ago, Bernal looked abysmal during his debut in the Dominican Summer League as he cobbled together a lowly .209/.298/.373 slash line with only 15 extra-base hits in 44 games. Last season, though, the front office took a rather unpredictable route and sent the young, unproven teenage backstop straight up to Low-A. And Bernal flourished in 45 games with Palm Beach. The 6-foot, 200-pound prospect batted a respectable .256/.316/.455 with eight doubles, one triple, seven homeruns, and a stolen base – just for good measure. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 17%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 18-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Low-A league (min. 150 PA): 112 to 122 wRC+ total with a K-rate between 17.5% to 20%. Those three: Justin Upton, Cheslor Cuthbert, and Leonardo Bernal.
The Cardinals clearly know their prospects well. Because there’s no other reason why they would have sent a teenager coming off of a disastrous debut showing in the Dominican Summer League straight into full season action not expecting him to succeed. And that’s exactly what the young switch-hitter did. Massive raw power that may translate into 25- to 30-homer territory. Very good bat-to-ball skills. There’s enough glove to stick behind the plate, as well. Bernal may be primed for the biggest breakout in 2023. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see him become a consensus Top 100 prospect. This will be the most aggressive ranking in the entire 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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7. Ivan Herrera, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 40/50 | 35 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: For the first time in nearly two full years the Cardinals will begin a season without future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina behind the dish. The front office moved swiftly following the 2022 season, signing three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to hefty five-year, $87.5 million contract – effectively closing whatever window was opened for Ivan Herrera, the once-thought heir apparent. Signed out of Panama for $200,000 during the summer of 2016, the stocky young backstop immediately established himself on the club’s Top 20 Prospect List by slugging .335/.425/.441 during his debut in the foreign rookie league. He continued to mash in his stint in the Gulf Coast League in 2018 and handled the Low-A competition at the beginning of 2019. Herrera’s first true stumble at the plate didn’t happen until his jaunt in Double-A two years ago as he hit a mediocre, secondary skills-driven .229/.342/.403. Last season, though, the 5-foot-11, 220-pound backstop’s bat regressed towards his career norms, hitting .268/.374/.396 with 10 doubles, one triple, six homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six attempts). His overall production with Springfield, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 11%. Herrera also appeared in 11 games with St. Louis as well, hitting .111/.190/.111 in 22 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Triple-A season (min. 275 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a 17% to 20% strikeout percentage. Those four hitters: J.P. Crawford, Brice Turang, Daniel Robertson, and – of course – Ivan Herrera.
A solid defensive catcher throughout his minor league tenure, Herrera will flirt with average power at the dish but he hasn’t quite tapped into it fully – or consistently. The Panamanian backstop has a nose for first base, which only increases his value, and he makes consistent contact. The swing is a bit long, which limits the projection to 45-grade territory. There’s lower end starting capability here, but there’s not a clear path to playing time – at least not for the next five years. In terms of big league ceiling, think .245/.330/.415.
Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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8. Gordon Graceffo, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
Background: There may teams that consistently find talent later in the draft as well as St. Louis, but there aren’t any teams that do it better or more frequently than the Cardinals. And Gordon Graceffo is just another example. A member of the Villanova’s rotation for three seasons, Graceffo was particularly dominant between 2020 and 2021 for the Wildcats. He tossed 107.1 innings, recording 98-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only 14 earned runs. St. Louis selected him in the fifth round two years ago, 151st overall, and handed him a $300,000 bonus to join the organization. He made 11 brief – nearly flawless – appearances with Palm Beach two years ago, posting a 37-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.0 innings of work. And that proved to be harbinger of things to come. Splitting time between Peoria and Springfield, the 6-foot-4, 210-pound right-hander averaged 9.0 K/9 and just 1.8 BB/9 to go along with an aggregate 2.97 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, eleven 22-year-old hurlers posted a 21% to 23% strikeout percentage and a 5.5% to 7.5% walk percentage in any Double-A league (min. 75 IP): Zack Greinke, Brady Singer, Brett Kennedy, Brock Huntzinger, Chase De Jong, Deolis Guerra, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jose Ascanio, Ricardo Sanchez, Wilfredo Boscan, and Gordon Graceffo.
Built in a similar fashion as former Cardinal Lance Lynn. Graceffo looks larger than his 6-foot-4, 210-pound listing. Graceffo owns a solid four-pitch mix: his fastball will sit in the 93- to 94-mph range and will touch as high as 98 mph; his slider is above-average with a little bit of late wrinkle that helps it avoid the fat part of the bat; his upper 70s curveball is a big bending, 12-6 breaking ball; and his changeup is very solid. The entirety of Graceffo’s arsenal plays up half of a grade due to his pinpoint accuracy. There’s league average starting material here, maybe a touch more depending upon his defense because his pitch-to-contact approach.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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9. Jonathan Mejia, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 45/55 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The Cardinals made one of their trade-mark unexpected big splashes last January when they signed switch-hitting shortstop Jonathan Mejia to a deal in the $2 million range. Unfairly dubbed by some media outlets as the “Next Javier Baez”, Mejia settled in nicely against Dominican Summer League competition just months after joining the historic organization. The La Romana, Dominican Republic native slugged a hearty .267/.418/.479 with 14 doubles, three triples, five homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases. The young middle infielder’s production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 45%. He finished the season with a solid 48-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 208 trips to the plate.
Scouting Report: Unsurprisingly, at least for a young switch-hitter, Mejia whiffed far more frequently from the left-side than the right-side (36.7% to 19.9%). So his 23% K-rate, which raised at least an eyebrow, isn’t nearly as concerning. Mejia shows fluidity and soft hands on the defensive side of the ball and should stay at the infield’s most important position as he matures. Good power from the right side with a simple, easy swing that could generate 20 homeruns at full maturity. The swing from the left-side is clearly not his normal and looks forced, stiff, and robotic (though he did manage to bat .240/.367/.440 as a lefty).
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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10. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 45 |
Background: A product of Woodland High School – home to borderline Hall of Fame second baseman Dustin Pedroia – Hjerpe committed to Pac-12 conference powerhouse Oregon State University as a sophomore. He continued to live up to those lofty expectations during the remaining two years of his prep career. The lanky left-hander posted an impeccable 0.78 ERA with a whopping 128 strikeouts in only 55.2 innings of work as a junior. And he was even better during his final campaign for the Wolves, tossing four no-hitters with 105 strikeouts in only 44 innings of work. Hjerpe struggled a bit during his COVID-abbreviated freshman campaign at Oregon State, posting a 16-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six relief outings, spanning 12 innings. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound southpaw had a bit of a coming out party during his sophomore season with the Beavers, averaging 11.5 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.21 ERA in 77.0 innings. Last season Hjerpe continued to progress as a crafty moundsmen: in a career best 18 appearances and 103.1 innings, the California native struck out a nation-leading 161 hitters while averaging 14.0 K/9 – the second best total. St. Louis selected him in the opening round, 22nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3,182,200. He did not appear in an affiliated game after joining the Cardinals’ organization.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2015, here’s the list of Division I pitchers to average at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 100 IP): Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Logan Gilbert, Ethan Small, Reid Detmers, Andrew Abbott, and – of course – Cooper Hjerpe.
Let’s continue:
- Among the aforementioned group, here’s the list of hurlers to walk less than 2.5 BB/9: Logan Gilbert and Cooper Hjerpe.
Low slot lefty gunslinger. Hjerpe attacks hitters with a low 90s fastball, an above-average, difficult to pick up curveball, and an average fading changeup. Listed generously as 6-foot-2 and 190-pounds, Hjerpe is physically maxed and shouldn’t expect to see any sizeable velocity gains in the future. Back of the rotation caliber arm as long as he can take the ball every fifth day.
I had a second round grade on Hjerpe heading into the draft. He’s likely going to move quickly through the low levels of the minor leagues.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
