Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Harry Ford, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 45/55 | 50/40 | 50/55 | 60 | 60 |
no stranger to drafting catchers in the early rounds of the midsummer draft throughout their history, taking a total of nine backstops in the first round and four in the second. And the list includes more than a few notable names, like: Jason Varitek (who was foolishly traded along with Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb), Jeff Clements (the third round pick in 2005 who was taken directly ahead of Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun), Mike Zunino, Dave Valle (who spent 13 years in the big leagues), and – of course – Harry Ford, who became the club’s first prep backstop taken in the opening round in 12 years. The 12th overall pick in 2021, Ford turned in a dynamic – albeit shortened – debut with the franchise’s Complex League that summer, bashing .291/.400/.582 with 10 extra-base knocks in only 19 games. Unsurprisingly, the front office sent the stocky backstop straight up to Modesto for the 2022 season. And Ford mashed – especially for a catcher still learning the finer nuances of the most difficult position. In 104 games with the Nuts, the 5-foot-10, 200-pound catcher slugged .274/.425/.439 with 23 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and 23 stolen bases (in only 28 total attempts). His production topped the league average mark by 32%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Low-A (min. 350 PA): 127 to 137 wRC+ with a strikeout rate between 22% and 24%. Those four hitters: Nick Castellanos, who owns a 112 wRC+ in his big league career, Oneil Cruz, Triston Casas, and – of course – the supremely underrated Harry Ford.
Ignoring Ford’s offensive prowess, at least momentarily, the North Cobb High School product was nothing short of spectacular behind the dish during his first full season in the minors – regardless of the metric. Clay Davenport’s numbers showed him as a +9 defender, and Baseball Prospectus’s calculations had him as 6.8 Fielding Runs Above Average. And just like a cheesy infomercial host would say, “That’s not all!” Baseball Prospectus’s showed he was an above-average pitch-framer as well. Whatever Ford adds with the bat, let alone on the base paths, is simply icing on the proverbial cake. And it’s a lot. Above-average hit tool, developing power that should peak in the 20- to 25-homerun range. Elite patience at the plate. And plus speed on the base paths. Last year he – almost predictably so – got off to a slow start with the Nuts, which isn’t surprising because of the position, his age, and level of competition. He batted a lowly .209/.370/.291 over his first 29 games. After that, though, his bat caught fire and he slugged .300/.446/.496 over his final 75 games. The bat speed is off the charts. And if he wasn’t so good behind the plate, he’d be a candidate to move away from the position to hasten his development. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him listed as the consensus top catching prospect within a year. He looks like perennial All-Star in the making with a ceiling as a .290/.380/.460 hitter with Gold Glove winning defense.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Cole Young, 2B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: While Young doesn’t have the bloodlines of the some of the other top prep hitters in the 2022 Draft Class – guys like Druw Jones or Elijah Greene or Cam Collier or Jackson Holliday – the promising lefty-swinging shortstop, nonetheless, has been a known commodity in eastern Pennsylvania for nearly a decade. Young would capture the title for MLB’s Pitch, Hit, and Run competition in 2014 as a 10-year-old. And his draft stock has been on a steady climb since then. North Alleghany High School isn’t exactly a known hotbed for baseball talent throughout the years, graduating just one player – right-hander Tom Carroll – to the big leagues out of six total draft picks. And their most recent draft pick, Kevin McCarthy, was a fourth rounder by the Mets all the way back in 1994, the same year the club selected Paul Wilson, Terence Long, and Jay Payton. McCarthy, by the way, also happens to be the school’s high drafted player as well. Until Young heard his name. Two years ago the young middle infielder batted a scorching .437 while scoring 33 runs and driving in 23. And he continued to swing a hot stick as a senior in 2022 as well: in 21 games for North Alleghany, the 6-foot, 180-pound youngster slugged .433/.564/.800 with eight doubles, four triples, and a pair of homeruns. Young committed to Duke University following his freshman season in high school. Seattle selected the 6-foot, 180-pound middle infielder 21st overall, signing him to a deal worth $3.3 million. He batted an impressive .367/.423/.517 with one double, one triple, two homeruns, and four stolen base in the Complex League and Low-A.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Young takes a well-rounded approach at the plate, showing a willingness to turn on the inside pitch and shoot outside offerings down the left line. He doesn’t project to develop more than average power, but should pepper plenty of two-baggers in the gaps. Defensively, the Pennsylvania-native has the chops to stick at shortstop, showing soft hands and a quick release. Young isn’t going to be a superstar, but he has the potential to turn into a fringe big league starting caliber shortstop. Low ceiling / high floor high school prospect.”
Following his blistering start, I’ve bumped up my original assessment.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Bryce Miller, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The Mariners have really turned into one of the better pitching development organizations over the past couple of years. They may not be on the same level as, say, the Dodgers or Rays or Guardians, but they’re in a tier directly below them, though. And just another example of Seattle’s pitching evaluation prowess is Bryce Miller. Taken in the fourth round two years ago out of Texas A&M, Miller’s collegiate career wrapped up with a multitude of ups-and-downs as he moved into the Aggies’ rotation for the first time. The good: the 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander averaged an impressive 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bad: his bloated walk rate (5.1 BB/9). But almost immediately after he donned a Seattle affiliate organization Miller honed in the strike zone with pinpoint precision during his debut as he walked just a pair of hitters in 9.1 innings of work. But no one could have expected the dominant performance awaiting the former Aggie heading into last season. Miller made 27 appearances in 2022 (all but one coming with Everett and Arkansas), throwing 133.2 innings with a whopping 163 strikeouts and just 46 walks. He finished his first full season with a tidy 3.16 ERA and a 3.49 FIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, seven 23-year-old hurlers posted a 29% to 31% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage in any Double-A league (min. 50 IP): Dinelson Lamet, Konnor Pilkington, Alejandro Chacin, Humberto Sanchez, Travis Ott, Yerry Rodriguez, and Bryce Miller.
Slow methodical worker, like the type to lull his defense asleep if he’s not careful. If you went in blind, not knowing anything about Miller or Emerson Hancock, or their draft statuses, and watched them pitch. It’d be difficult to not side with Miller. He doesn’t have the repertoire depth, but his upper-90s fastball is better; his slider is similar. And he’s proven to be able to handle the workload. Explosive fastball. The slider lacks consistency, but will flash above-average. He’ll also show a solid-average changeup. He’s not a command guy, but doesn’t really need to be given the ferocity of heater. If there was one pitcher that could burst onto the scene like Spencer Strider, Miller’s name would be on the list.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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4. Axel Sanchez, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: A bit of an under-the-radar signing out of the Dominican Republic in early July 2019 – at least as much as a $290,000 signing can be under-the-radar. Sanchez, like a lot of amateurs that turned pro at that point had to wait until the 2021 season to make his affiliated debut due to the COVID pandemic. Seattle would send the then-18-year-old slick-fielding middle infielder into the Dominican Summer League. And the results were completely underwhelming as he batted a punchless .261/.360/.323 with just seven doubles and a dinger in 52 games. Last season the brass shipped Sanchez up to the Complex League, but he hardly resembled the same player – despite yo-yoing by the front office. Sanchez began the year in High-A for six games, was then sent to the Complex League before going back up to High-A briefly. He was then sent back down to the Complex League – again – in late June. A month later he has up with Modesto. In spite of the club’s handling, Sanchez quietly turned in a breakout campaign as he mashed .283/.365/.510 with 19 doubles, four triples, 10 homeruns, and 13 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 28% — a 27-percentage point improvement from the previous year.
Scouting Report: Just for fun, here are Sanchez’s numbers prorated for a full 162-game schedule: 45 doubles, 10 triples, 24 homeruns, and 31 stolen bases. Not bad work for a defensive wizard. Sanchez struggled driving ball during his debut in the Dominican Summer League two years ago, projecting – at that time – as a smooth-fielding backup infielder. Fast forward a year, all of sudden he’s mashing and his defensive numbers are above-average (in an admittedly small sample size). Sanchez could very well announce his arrival as one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors as soon as 2023. Remember the name. Boom goes the dynamite.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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5. Gabriel Gonzalez, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45/50 | 50/40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: TraderJerry Dipoto may not be the Mariners’ General Manager anymore, thanks to his promotion to President of Baseball Operations, but the club’s new GM, Justin Hollander, is picking up right where his predecessor left off. Hollander dealt away one of the club’s top young arms, Adam Macko, as part of the package to fetch Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays. And that comes months after the Mariners used their prospect capital to acquire ace right-hander Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds, dealing away Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Andrew Moore, and Levi Stoudt. So Seattle’s farm system cupboard is pretty barren at this point – though it’s not without a handful of potential quality future big league contributors. Like Gabriel Gonzalez. Signed out of Carupano, Venezuela, in early February 2021, Gonzalez made his affiliated debut just a few months later with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate. And he sparkled. The 5-foot-10, 165-pound corner outfielder slugged .287/.371/.521 with 15 doubles, four triples, seven homeruns, and nine stolen bases (in 12 attempts). The front office brass bumped Gonzalez stateside and into the Complex League. But after mashing .357/.421/.548 in 35 games, Gonzalez was pushed up to Low-A. And he continued to hit with Modesto (.286/.400/.389). He finished the 2020 campaign with a .321/.410/.468 with 14 doubles, one triple, seven homeruns, and nine stolen bases (in 13 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by an impressive 39%.
Scouting Report: Gonzalez continues to fly under the radar, even in a farm system that’s as thin as the Mariners’. He’s not overly big, but he’s lean and should add some strength to his 165-pound frame in the coming years. Good bat speed, but not elite. Gonzalez owns an above-average hit tool with 50-grade power. He’s spent some time in centerfield the past two seasons, but he’s better suited for a corner spot where his glove should provide net positive value. He could turn in one of the more surprising breakout campaign in 2023.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Michael Arroyo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 40/50 | 40 | 50 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: The front office dealt away a tremendous amount of up-the-middle infield talent last season (Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo), but they were able to add a notable shortstop from the international market too. Seattle signed Michael Arroyo, a 5-foot-10, 160-pound infielder, for a hefty $1.375 million in mid-January last year. A few months later the young Venezuelan was torching the Dominican Summer League to the tune of .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, two triples, four homeruns, and four stolen bases (in eight attempts). According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by a staggering 58%.
Scouting Report: Not close to being physically mature, the baby-faced infielder is already showing an advance approach at the plate. Short, quick stroke. Fast bat / hands. Arroyo could be one the better value signings from the entire class. Only entering his-18 season, Arroyo’s a near lock to square off against Low-A pitching for the majority of 2023 – if not for the entire year. Despite his slight frame and twitchy movements, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his develop 15- to 20-homer thump in the coming years. He could POP in a big way in 2023.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025
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7. Emerson Hancock, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: It may take a couple more years before it finally settles in, but the sheer level of high end talent the Mariners’ farm system curated, but also sent successfully to the big leagues is astonishing. Perennial MVP candidate Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby immediately come to mind. And that doesn’t count outfielder Jarred Kelenic, though hope is dwindling quickly that he can figure out big league pitching – particularly left-handers. The last of the club’s Big 5 is Emerson Hancock. Taken with the sixth overall pick out of the University of Georgia two years ago, there was talk during his sophomore year with the Bulldogs that he could be a potential top pick and he narrowly missed. Hancock’s 2021 season was severely interrupted to a non-structural shoulder issue, limiting him to just 44.2 innings between Everett and Arkansas. And the opening parts of last season looked like a repeat may be in order. A lat injury forced him to miss the first several weeks of year. Finally healthy, Hancock made it back to the Travelers’ mound in mid-May and was able to log 21 solid starts. The hard-throwing righty just missed the 100-inning threshold, tossing 98.1 innings with the club’s Double-A affiliate, fanning 92 and walking 38. He averaged 8.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 3.75 ERA, 5.31 FIP, and a 5.43 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, fourteen 23-year-old hurlers posted a 21.5% to 23.5% strikeout percentage with an 8% to 10% walk percentage in any Double-A league (min. 90 IP): Jordan Montgomery, Tyler Beede, James McDonald, Ariel Pena, Esmerling Vasquez, Hansel Robles, Jerad Eickhoff, Jeremy Beasley, Jorge Alcala, Kyle Weiland, Ofreidy Gomez, Parker Bridwell, Same LeCure, and – of course – Emerson Hancock. It’s worth noting that beyond Montgomery it’s a list of relievers or failed starters.
The polished approach at pitching is still in place, but Hancock no longer looks – or, more importantly, feels – like a special pitching prospect, one that could take that final step towards the front of a big league rotation. That’s not to say he won’t be a successful big leaguer, but the ceiling and expectations have to be dialed back. Plus fastball, average curveball, above-average changeup. His slider seemed to regress from plus to above-average, but it’s still a serviceable weapon. The above-average, sometimes plus, command he showed during his final two seasons at Georgia seems to have taken a step back now as well. Hancock’s looking like a league average arm, which is still a win as a former early first round pick.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Lazaro Montes, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35/45 | 60/70 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Ranked as the eighth best prospect on the international market by MLB Pipeline. Seattle signed the Cuban import to a massive $2.5 million deal last January, committing nearly half of the club’s allotted monies to the corner outfielder. Montes would make his affiliated debut with the organization’s Dominican Summer League affiliate a few months later. He would slug .284/.422/.585 with 13 doubles, five triples, 10 homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases in 55 games. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Montes’ overall production surpassed the league average threshold by an impressive 62%.
Scouting Report: A ferocious left-handed swing that aims to destroy baseballs when contact is made. But unfortunately for Montes, though, that didn’t happen as nearly as much as the Mariners would have liked during his debut. Playing in the pitcher-friendly DSL, Montes whiffed in a third of his plate appearances last season. He did not strike out in only 10 of his 55 games last season. Just to put that into perspective:
- Since 2006, there have been 199 instances in which a prospect whiffed in more than 30% of his DSL appearances. Not one of them would go on to establish themselves as an adequate big league hitter.
Big time power potential, the La Habana native’s thump may be the best in the entire system already. The force from his swing meeting a pitch is a loud audible explosion, the type that isn’t heard very frequently. If Montes can chew down his whiff rate to 70% of his current total, he could develop into one of the game’s best power-hitting prospects. It’s something that can be done, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: ExtremelyHigh
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Jonatan Clase, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50 | 80 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: An oft-told story always comes up when Billy Wagner is the conversation. The should-be-Hall-of-Famer broke his right arm as a child, so he began to throw with his left, a move that undoubtedly change the course of his entire life as he went on to save 422 games and tally nearly $100,000,000 in career earnings. Well, Jonatan Clase has a similar story of his own. The speedster, as told by MLB.com, missed the majority of the 2021 season due to a lower leg issue. With the added time on his hands he – simply – decided to pick switch-hitting back up after shelving it as an amateur. The naturally right-handed hitter promptly went out and turned in a dynamic, breakout-esque showing in 2022, including hitting a respectable (given the circumstances) .232/.312/.438 as a lefty. Clase, who signed the Mariners during the summer of 2018, mashed .267/.374/.463 with 22 doubles, 11 triples, 13 homeruns, and 55 stolen bases (in 65 total attempts). As measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped surpassed the league average threshold by 17%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season (min. 350 PA): 112 to 122 wRC+, at least an 11% walk rate, and a 25% to 28% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Ryan Dent, Boss Moanaroa, Thomas Hickman, and Jonathan Clase.
A speed demon on the base paths that runs efficiently (85% success rate last season), Clase’s power took an unexpected step forward last season – a surprise given his 5-foot-8, 150-pound frame and that Modesto’s home ballpark is one of the more homer-suppressing environments in the minors. Despite going back to switch-hitting for the first time in a couple years, Clase performed decently as a lefty. Average defender that should improve to above-average. He could be a dynamic table-setter in a few years. Don’t sleep on the new switch-hitter.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Tyler Locklear, 1B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Locklear’s entire family tree is littered with athletes: his father played baseball at St. Andrew’s College, then a Division II school; his cousin, Gavin Locklear, earned a scholarship after walking onto the N.C. State football team; and his uncle, Jeff Locklear, spent five seasons in the minor leagues after the San Francisco Giants drafted him in the 54th round in 1991. An All-Star and 2018 Under Armour All-American during his high school days at Archbishop Curley, Locklear got off to a bit of a slow start during his freshman season at Virginia Common Wealth, hitting a mediocre .259/.380/.397 during the 2020 COVID-shortened season. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound corner infielder had a massive coming out party for the Rams the following season as he slugged an impressive .345/.515/.686 with 12 doubles, three triples, and 16 homeruns. The production was enough to earn him a trip to the prestigious Cape Cod League where he batted a respectable .256/.333/.504 in 34 games with the Orleans Firebirds. Last season Locklear morphed into – arguably – the most lethal college bat in the game as he mashed .402/.542/.799 with 25 doubles, two triples, 20 homeruns, and six stolen bases. Seattle selected him in the second round, 58th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,276,500. After a two-game cameo in the Complex League, Locklear tore through the Low-A pitching to the tune of .282/.353/.504.
Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only four Division I players hit at least .400/.525/.700 in a season (min. 275 PA): Nick Gonzales, Peyton Burdick, Trenton Moses, and – of course – Tyler Locklear.
The question is going to come down to the level of competition – the Atlantic 10 Conference is hardly the SEC. And, on one hand, Locklear handled himself well enough during his extended jaunt through the Cape Cod League two summers ago. But his trademark plate discipline (he walked 101 times vs. 78 punch outs in his career at VCU) had all but evaporated against the most elite competition. In 34 games with Orleans he whiffed 22% of the time against a paltry 4% walk rate. Big time power – both raw and in-game. And Locklear makes his intentions well known during his plate appearance: he shooting for extra-bases on every pitch. Huge natural uppercut on the swing as he drops his back shoulder to help elevate the ball better. He’s big and slow, so he’s not long for the hot corner. If he can walk at a good clip, he’ll be a TTO (Three True Outcomes) hitter. Right now, he looks one dimensional.”
I had a fourth round grade on Locklear heading into the draft. One more note: he walked just 5.8% and fanned a reasonable 21.8% of the time in Low-A.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
