Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Junior Caminero, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 70 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: It may not be etched in the annals of unwritten laws or even mentioned among the game’s guiding principles. But it should be. Never make a deal with someone smarter than you. And the Rays, always tightrope walking on their shoestring budget, are smarter than you and everyone else, so don’t take it personally. And, yet, here we are, the Rays holding one of the game’s preeminent prospects – again. This time courtesy of the Cleveland Con. Back in mid-November three years ago, the Guardians, looking to fortify a pitching staff with some inexpensive arms, acquired saber-darling Tobias Myers for in exchange for a 17-year-old infielder coming off of a strong debut showing in the Dominican Summer League. At best, that teenage infielder would take years to climb through the minor league ranks and that’s even assuming he doesn’t peter out at any given point. And, yet, here we are. While Myers was busy floundering in the upper minor leagues the past two seasons, moving on from Cleveland to San Francisco to Chicago and then on to Milwaukee, Junior Caminero blitzed through the Complex League and Low-A competition in 2022. He followed that up with a scorching showing with Bowling Green, a dominant 81-game tenure in in Double-A, and finished off 2023 with a seven-game cameo in the big leagues. The 6-foot-1, 157-pound shortstop / third baseman finished his third full season in pro ball with an aggregate .324/.384/.591 slash line with 18 doubles, six triples, 31 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in 10 total attempts). His overall minor league production, as measured by FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, blew past the league average mark by 56%. He went 8-for-34 with a double and a dinger while donning a Tampa Bay Rays uniform.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Watching Caminero’s cuts leaves the impression that he’s selling out for long ball power, but he’s made consistent contact in his young career. Defensively, Caminero’s split time between both positions on the left side of the infield, but he’s likely to gain additional girth that pushes him permanently to the hot corner.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been a dozen 19-year-old hitters that have accrued 350 plate appearances with one club in any Double-A league. Four of those hitters have tallied at least a 130 wRC+ mark during that time. In descending order: Mike Trout (156 wRC+). Ozzie Albies (148), Junior Caminero (140), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (133).
Ignoring Caminero temporarily, here’s how the other three have fared in the big leagues:
Mike Trout: 170 wRC+, Ozzie Albies: 110 wRC+, Fernando Tatis Jr.: 139.
Arguably the best in-game power among all minor leaguers, Caminero can absolutely punish baseballs to the point where they may never land. The young infielder seemingly has everything: lightning fast hands, plus-plus power, an above-average hit tool, pitch recognition, and – just for good measure – he plays a pretty good third base. There’s a pretty good chance he grows into a 40-homerun hitter at the game’s pinnacle level. In terms of production: .285/.355/.550. One more thought: it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he moves permanently to third base.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Carson Williams, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 |
Background: At the backend of that seriously deep and immensely talented collection of shortstops that were drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft class, Tampa Bay selected the Torrey Pines High School native with the 28th overall pick that July, making him the tenth player taken at the position. After a strong, albeit limited, 11-game debut in the Complex League three years ago, Williams showed off an impressive, well-rounded toolkit during his stint in the Carolina League in 2022 as he slugged .252/.347/.471 with 22 doubles, 10 triples, 19 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases. Last season, the 6-foot-1, 180-pound middle infielder turned in a similar performance with the organization’s South Atlantic League affiliate, hitting .254/.351/.506 with 18 doubles, seven triples, 23 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts) across 105 contests. His overall production, per FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, was31% better than the league average threshold. Williams also appeared briefly with the Montgomery Biscuits and Durham Bulls during the season as well.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Even if the hit tool hovers somewhere between the 40- and 45-grade territory, there should be enough secondary skills to make him an above-average big league shortstop.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ mark with a strikeout rate of at least 30% with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): Tyler O’Neill, Cody Johnson, and – of course – Carson Williams.
A potential Gold Glove contender at a premium position, Williams can pick with the best of them – even better. Williams has kind of the Gunnar Henderson starter kit in place: premium athleticism, power, speed, smooth movements on the defensive side of the ball, and – of course – a hit tool that’ll hover in the .240 or .250 range for batting averages. Plus bat speed, but Williams can be susceptible to stuff low in zone, particularly slow offerings away. He’s always going to deal with a suboptimal hit tool, but the secondary skills are more than strong enough to compensate. In terms of production line, think: .245/.330/.440.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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3. Curtis Mead, 2B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Heading into the 2023 season it looked like the Rays completely pilfered the Phillies out of Curtis Mead, a consensus Top 100 prospect and future lineup cornerstone. But the player Tampa Bay parted with, Cristopher Sánchez, quietly had a breakout season for the National League Eastern Division Champions, tallying a 3.44 ERA across 18 starts and one relief appearances (99.1 IP) to go along with impeccably precise command; he walked just 16 batters, or an average of 1.4 free passes every nine innings. As for Mead, despite missing nearly two months due to a fractured wrist courtesy of an errant pitch, he continued to impress at the plate. Appearing in 61 games with the club’s International League affiliate, the 6-foot-0, 171-pound infielder slugged .294/.385/.515 with 21 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and four stolen bases (in six attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 23%. Mead also squeezed in 24 games at the big league level, hitting .253/.326/.349 in 92 trips to the plate.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Not only is Mead one of the purest hitters in the Rays’ system, but also in the entire minor leagues. There’s Sean Casey-like potential that plays up even more at an up-the-middle position.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 275 PA): 118 to 128 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a 16% to 19% strikeout rate. Those two bats: Grégor Blanco, a .255/.338/.348 hitter in more than 1,000 big league games, and – of course – Curtis Mead.
One of the most consistent, reliable bats in the minor leagues since making his stateside debut in 2019, Mead’s 2023 season falls in line with his career norms that we’ve come to expect: great batting average, solid power with plenty of doubles, and a real strong sniffer for first base. His plus hit tool / average pop play up even more on the infield dirt. The batted ball data for Mead during his Triple-A stint last season is good, not great. He rarely swings-and-misses inside the zone. His chase rate (28%) is in line with the MLB average, same with the average exit velocity. He could be perennial .300 hitter with 35 doubles, 15- to 20-homeruns, and steady defense.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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4. Xavier Isaac, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50/60 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: When all of baseball is busy zigging, the Rays are zagging – all over the damn place. Take for example: Xavier Isaac. It’s common knowledge that you just don’t take first baseman, especially – doubly especially – high school first baseman in the opening round. And, yet, here we are. Armed with the 29th overall pick two years ago, Tampa Bay bucked traditional common sense and selected East Forsythe High School first baseman Xavier Isaac, signing him to a deal worth $2,548,900, the recommended slot value. Isaac would dip his toes into the Florida Complex League that summer, going 4-for-19 in five contests. Last season, the hulking first baseman appeared in 90 games with the Charleston RiverDogs, slugging .266/.380/.462 with 16 homeruns, three triples, 13 homeruns, and going a perfect 10-for-10 in the stolen base department. He also appeared in a 12-game cameo in the South Atlantic League, mashing .408/.491/.898. Isaac finished the year with an aggregate .285/.395/.521 slash line. His overall production, as determined by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was an impressive 54% better than the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Physically reminiscent of a young Bobby Bradley. There are very few ballparks on the planet that can hold a smash from Isaac. Power is the true calling card for the first base-only prospect, making him a risk for one of the more risk adverse organization’s in Major League Baseball. I had a second round draft grade on him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 133 to 143 wRC+, a 20% to 22% strikeout rate, and a walk rate north of 12%. Those two bats: Delino DeShields Jr. and Zavier Isaac, forming one of the unlikeliest similarly performing pairs – maybe ever.
Physically, Isaac looks significantly more solid than he did coming out of high school. The former first rounder made more contact than expected during his first taste of full-season action last year. But I still have concerns about the hit tool and the length of the swing, in general. Premium power, giving the Rays two of the best power bats in all the minors, Isaac shows a fairly refined approach with an impressive ability to recognize spin. Defensively, he’s raw and may eventually have to shift into a full time DH gig. There’s some Ryan Howard vibes here.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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5. Brayden Taylor, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 45/50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A remarkably consistent hitter during his three-year tenure with the Horned Frogs. Taylor, a lefty-swinging shortstop, quietly hit .324/.445/.572 with 11 doubles, four triples, 12 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases (in only 16 attempts) as a true freshman. And he acquitted himself well enough as a teenager in the vaunted Cape Cod League that summer as well, batting .269/.361/.385 with eight extra-base knocks in 26 contests. The Copper Hills High School product picked up right where he left off in his sophomore season, mashing .314/.454/.576 with 14 doubles, one triple, 13 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (without getting caught). He split the ensuing summer between shorts stints with Team USA (.111/.333/.111) and with the Falmouth Commodores in the Cape (.242/.395/.546). Last season, Taylor continued to chug right along, posting a .308/.430/.631 slash line, setting career bests in doubles (15) and homeruns (23) while swiping 14 bases in as many attempts. Tampa Bay selected the TCU bopper in the first round, 19th overall, signing him to a deal worth a smidgeon below $3.9 million. Taylor batted .242/.361/.517 during his debut last season, most coming in Low-A.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, there have been eleven instances where a Big 12 hitter posted a .300/.420/.570 slash line with a walk rate of at least 15% in a season (min. 250 PA). Brayden Taylor accomplished the feat three separate times.
Very simple, easy swing. Despite the big uptick in power throughout his collegiate career, Taylor doesn’t sell out for the long ball. Instead, he’s willing to slap it in a gap or the opposite way. He’s a candidate to get the “professional hitter” label at some point at the next level. The swing path is more geared towards doubles and line drives. He has the potential to belt out 30 or 40 two-baggers in a season.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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6. Dominic Keegan, C/1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 30 | 55 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: Keegan barely saw the field during his first two seasons at Vanderbilt, tallying just 15 games during his freshman season and another nine during the COVID-limited 2020 campaign. But once baseball reemerged from its hiatus, he became one of college baseball’s most ferocious hitters, slugging .345/.427/.638 with 17 doubles, three triples, and 15 homeruns. But all that firepower did was earn him a late round draft flier by the Yankees that season. Keegan passed on the 19th round overtures and headed back to the Commodores for another go at it. All he did was simply raise the bar, putting together a .371/.458/.646 with 17 doubles, two triples, 14 homeruns, and – just for good measure – a pair of stolen bases. Tampa Bay snagged Keegan in the fourth round two years ago, signing him to a deal worth slightly less than $400,000. The Vanderbilt basher would make his way into just a dozen minor league games after joining the organization. Last season, the part-time first baseman / catcher split time between the franchise’s Low-A and High-A affiliates, hitting .287/.386/.467 with 20 doubles, four triples, 13 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, surpassed the league average by 37%.
Scouting Report: For a guy that splits time between catching and first base, Keegan is remarkably solid, if not above-average, behind the dish – a pleasant surprise. At the plate, unsurprising for a player coming from a collegiate powerhouse, the former fourth round pick shows a selective, patient approach at the plate. He generates average in-game power but possesses borderline plus raw power in BP. Keegan absolutely annihilated a mistake during an August 25th contest against the Winston-Salem Dash last season that may still be going. I’m going a little conservative (at least now), but he’s tracking like a league average starter, but there’s certainly room for growth. If there’s one guy that blossoms into a Stephen Vogt-type player, it’s Dominic Keegan. He’s going to get everything out of his talent. Don’t bet against him.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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7. Tre’ Morgan, 1B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 40/45 | 30 | 55 | 80 | 50 |
Background: While most – if not all – of the accolades that were heaped upon the LSU baseball program centered on ace right-hander Paul Skenes and dynamic centerfielder Dylan Crews, the top two picks last July, first baseman Tre’ Morgan was as critical to the team’s success as any. A sweet-swinging, silky smooth defender, Morgan was one of the best bats in college baseball as a true freshman, mashing a scorching .357/.441/.526 with 16 doubles, four triples, six homeruns, and 15 stolen bases (in 21 total attempts). His production during his sophomore campaign, while still good, took a noticeable step backward. Appearing in 62 games for the perennial SEC powerhouse, Morgan slashed .324/.414/.463 with 18 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns. He finished the year with a near one-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio (26-to-25). The Louisiana native spent part of the ensuing summer on Team USA’s national squad, hitting a paltry .133/.278/.133 in six games. A product of Brother Martin High School, Morgan remained consistent at the dish during his junior season for the World Series winning Tigers: he batted .316/.418/.502 with 15 doubles, four triples, and a career best nine homeruns. Tampa Bay, in a very Tampa Bay move, selected the underrated Morgan in the third round, 88th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $781,300, saving the club $2,500 – which is another Tampa Bay move. The former Tiger batted a scorching .396/.482/.542 in 14 games during his debut.
Scouting Report: Any baseball fan knows that the first basemen of yesteryear were known as slick-fielding defenders. Guys like George Sisler or George Giles, who is considered (at least by Hall of Famer Monte Irvin) as the greatest defensive first baseman in Negro Leagues History. Tre’ Morgan is right up there with the leatherwork. A tremendous glove, bordering on an 80-grade, and baseball IQ to match. With regard to his bat, consider the following:
Between 2011 and 2022, only 10 SEC hitters batted at least .310/.410/.500 with more walks than strikeouts in a season (min. 300 PA): Christian Walker (twice), Alex Bregman, Jacob Gonzalez, J.J. Bleday, Austin Martin, Jonathan India, Blake Allemand, Boomer White, Austin Dillard, and Hunter Haas.
Plus bat speed but not a lot of power to show for it, especially in college baseball’s high octane explosion in 2023, but Tampa Bay’s exactly the type of organization to get more thump out of Morgan’s stick. There’s a chance for an above-average hit tool, 50-grade power, and on-base skills to go along with a Golden Glove at first (even though he’s spending some time in left field). There’s no such thing as a lock to make the big leagues, but Morgan’s as close to it as possible. He plays with flair, the type that hasn’t been seen in a hundred years. He’s fun to watch and could become the face of a franchise.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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8. Adrian Santana, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
Background: Perhaps more than any other big league organization the Rays have placed a heavy emphasis on shortstops in the opening rounds of the draft, grabbing at least one among the top three rounds since 2017. Heading into the 2023 draft last summer, the club grabbed three shortstops in the first, second, and third rounds the previous six years. So it’s not surprising that they opened up 2023 by selecting shortstops with both of their first round selections. After using their first pick, 19th overall, on Texas Christian infielder Brayden Taylor, Tampa Bay swung back around and snagged Doral Academy Preparatory School product Adrian Santana twelve picks later. Committed to the University of Miami, the 5-foot-11, 155-pound switch-hitter was an offensive dynamo during his prep career: he batted .368/.476/.573 as a sophomore, followed that up with a .433/.530/.800 slash line as a sophomore, and mashed .360/.427/.750 with four doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. Tampa Bay signed Santana to a below-slot deal worth $2 million, saving the club approximately $670,000. He batted .205/.340/.256 in 10 Complex League games.
Scouting Report: Surprisingly, Santana, the 31st overall pick last July, was the first switch-hitter selected. An upper body hitter that sometimes gets caught on his front foot, Santana doesn’t look like he possesses a whole lot of power, but it’s surprising. His stroke is more line-drive oriented from the left-side. Quick release at shortstop, smooth and fluid, Santana projects to stay at the position. Elite speed.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2028
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9. Ben Peoples, RHP
| FB | CU | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | N/A | 55 | 50/55 | 40 | 45 |
Background: As I’ve opined elsewhere, the club’s 2019 draft class is pretty bad with very little to show four-plus years later. The best prospect still in the system – arguably – is right-hander Ben Peoples, an over-slot signing as the club’s 22nd round pick. Peoples, the 668th overall player taken that summer, opened some eyes with his solid showing with the RiverDogs of Charleston two years ago, posting a 109-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 84 innings of work. He capped off his quiet breakout with a pair of starts with Bowling Green. Last season, the 6-foot-1, 175-pound righty returned to the Sally for some additional seasoning. He hurled 84.1 innings, averaging 10.2 strikeouts and 4.8 walks per nine innings.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been six 22-year-old pitchers that posted a 25.5% to 27.5% strikeout percentage with an 11.5% to 13.5% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 75 IP): Kyle Bradish, Jose Cisnero, Ariel Pena, Nick Nelson, Wyatt Olds, and Ben Peoples.
Fall from physically imposing, Peoples, entering his age-23 season, looks like he could still pass off as the ace of a high school team. But don’t let the baby face fool you: Peoples’ fastball sits in the 95- to 97-mph range with hard, riding life that’s particularly lethal high in the zone. He’ll also mix in a slider that flashes 55, and a changeup that shows some promise. He threw one changeup that was definitely a plus when I saw him. (Reports indicate a cutter, but I didn’t see one.) He can be overly reliant on his plus fastball, though it may be by design to help improve his command. There’s some backend starting potential here if he can throw a few more strikes and find some consistency with his changeup. He might be the best pitching prospect you’ve never heard of. Obviously, relief risk, which goes without saying.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Chandler Simpson, LF/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 20 | 80 | 50 | 45/55 | 45 |
Background: One of the more interesting prospects in the entire 2022 draft. Not because he’s chock full of tools, but because I was interested to see how his extreme contact, no power approach would translate into the professional ranks. Simpson spent his first two collegiate seasons at Alabama-Birmingham, leaving the school as a mediocre – at best – hitter sporting a mid-.600s OPS. But once the former middle infielder got to the ACC he caught fire and never looked back. Appearing in 47 games with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the wiry speedster hit a scorching .434/.506/.517 with eight doubles, three triples, a homerun, and 27 stolen bases (in 31 total attempts). And after the Rays nabbed him in the second round, Simpson didn’t stopped hitting either: he batted .370/.471/.482 in the Complex League. Last season, the former Yellow Jacket spent time with Charleston and Bowling Green, batting an aggregate .294/.373/.343 with 13 doubles, five triples, and a mindboggling 94 stolen bases. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 10% above the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the more intriguing prospects – if not the most intriguing prospect – in last year’s class. Simpson is cut from the cloth of yesteryear, showcasing phenomenal, elite bat-to-ball skills, plus speed, and 30-grade power. So it’s not surprising to see the Rays take a calculated gamble on his 65-grade bat and see if they can coax some added power from his lanky frame.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2005, only three 22-year-old hitters posted a 98 to 108 wRC+ with a sub-10% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Connor Joe, Blake Kelso, and Chandler Simpson.
A former middle infielder in college, Simpson’s conversion to the outfielder has had a few bumps and bruises along the way, but his plus-plus speed will eventually translate into positive value. But let’s be honest: if the hit tool doesn’t prove to be a bonafide 60-grade weapon, there’s no hope Simpson develops into anything tangible at the big league level. If the bat does bloom into a 60-grade weapon we’re looking at Juan Pierre 2.0. But there’s a lot – and I mean A LOT – that could go wrong. Worst case: Terrance Gore.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
