Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Harry Ford, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45/55 | 50/40 | 50/55 | 60 | 55 |
Background: Just the third high school catcher the Mariners have drafted in franchise history. Ford follows in the footsteps of Seattle immortals Steven Baron, the 33rd overall pick in 2009, and Ryan Christianson, who was taken directly after Barry Zito and Ben Sheets in the last draft of the 20th century. Just for the record: Harry Ford is not Steven Baron or Ryan Christianson. He’s much better. Hell, he’s much better than nearly any catching prospect currently dwelling in the minor leagues. The 12th overall pick three years ago in what’s quickly become one of the better draft classes in recent memory, Ford put the rest of the minors on notice after a phenomenal debut showing that summer, slugging .291/.400/.582 with seven doubles, three homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases in just 19 Arizona Complex League games. The front office – wisely – sent Ford up to the California League at the start of 2022. And he proved that he had no issues with Low-A pitching as he batted .274/.425/.439 with 23 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and 23 stolen bases (in only 28 total attempts). Last season, the North Cobb product continued his level-by-level move through the Mariners’ system as he handled his assignment with the Everett AquaSox. Appearing in a career best 118 games, the 5-foot-10, 200-pound Georgia native put together a .257/.410/.430 triple-slash line while setting career highs in doubles (24), homeruns (15), and stolen bases (24). He “only” tied his previous high of four triples, as well. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Ford’s overall production smashed the league average mark by an impressive 35%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: if he wasn’t so good behind the plate, he’d be a candidate to move away from the position to hasten his development. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him listed as the consensus top catching prospect within a year. He looks like perennial All-Star in the making with a ceiling as a .290/.380/.460 hitter with Gold Glove winning defense.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and an 18% to 22% strikeout rate. Those three bats: Caleb Gindl, Jeter Downs, and – of course – Harry Ford.
Ford’s an interesting prospect for a variety of reasons:
#1. He’s an overly athletic catcher. Not that it’s even a remotely bad thing, but he’s well beyond the norm in terms of athleticism at the position.
#2. He’s not just masquerading as a catcher; he’s an above-average defender and with incredible pitch-framing skills.
#3. He’s one of those most patient hitters in the minor leagues, walking in more than 18% of his plate appearances last season and 17.8% for this entire career.
#4. Along with plus speed, Ford is growing into his average power projection.
Add it all up and it’s a recipe for extended big league success. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .270/..370/.430, something like an early career Russell Martin.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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2. Cole Young, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: After a stretch of five consecutive drafts that saw the Mariners go after college players in the first round, the organization shifted philosophical gears beginning in 2021 and have only drafted high school-aged players in the first round, taking five consecutive prospects from the prep ranks. Cole Young, the 21st overall pick two years ago, was the first of three teenage shortstops the club eventually grabbed. A product of North Alleghany High School, the 6-foot, 180-pound middle infielder got off to a blistering start to his professional career that summer, hitting a scorching .367/.423/.517 between the Complex League and Modesto. Last season, the Pennsylvania native split his first full campaign between stops with Modesto and Everett. Appearing in 126 total games, Young slugged .277/.399/.449 with 34 doubles, nine triples, 11 homeruns, and 22 stolen bases (though he was thrown out 10 times). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production line topped the league average mark by a whopping 34%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Young isn’t going to be a superstar, but he has the potential to turn into a fringe big league starting caliber shortstop. Low ceiling / high floor high school prospect.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 19-year-old prospects met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 123 to 133 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and sub-15% strikeout rate. Those three bats: Adael Amador, Geraldo Perdomo, and – of course – Cole Young.
Young doesn’t hold anything back on each swing, generating plenty of torque to alter his final foot placement. Tremendous eye at the plate, one of the better ones I saw in 2023, Young has no problem laying off pitches just outside the zone – be it fastballs or breaking balls. Great bat control that allows him to turn on inside pitches and shoot outside balls the other way. It’s also not uncommon for Young to inside-out balls the other way too. Defensively, he’s solid on either side of second base. The ceiling isn’t overly high, but the floor is – especially considering his age. He’s a grinder, someone who will be easy to root for. Early career Matt Duffy vibes with a slightly higher production line: .290/.360/.410.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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3. Colt Emerson, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: New Concord is a small town in the heart of Ohio. So small, in fact, that the 2020 census recorded a population of just 2,361 people. And despite John Glenn High School being established in 1965, just three years after the former NASA astronaut became the first American to orbit the earth, they captured its first – and only – OHSAA title in 2016 when the boys basketball team beat LeBron James’ old stomping ground – St. Vincent-St. Mary High School. But nestled in the quant little Ohio town is one of the best high school hitters in the nation – Colt Emerson. A lefty-swinging infielder, Emerson slugged a scorching .459/.580/.847 during his junior season with the Muskies, belting out 12 doubles, three triples, and five homeruns. He spent the summer playing for Team USA’s 18U World Cup squad, batting .360/.515/.520 with a trio of extra-base knocks in nine games. Last season the offensive sparkplug mashed .446/.594/1.013 with 12 doubles, three triples, and eight homeruns for the Ohio-based school. He was previously committed to Auburn University. Seattle drafted Emerson in the opening round last summer, 22nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3.8 million. Emerson split his professional debut between the Complex League and Modesto, batting a scorching .374/.496/.550 with 12 extra-base knocks.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Despite coming from small town Ohio, Emerson has no issues with big time velocity. Smooth left-handed swing, blazing bat speed. He grinds out at bats. Solid-average pop. He doesn’t hold back when swinging either. Defensively, he shows a strong arm that can make all the throws. There’s enough leather to stay at shortstop, but he could shift over to the second base or the hot corner.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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4. Felnin Celesten, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: There was just one prospect that MLB Pipeline ranked above Felnin Celesten as part of the international free agency signing period. And that prospect happens to be San Diego catching phenom Ethan Salas, who – somehow – reached Double-A (briefly) as a 17-year-old last season. As for Celesten, well, he’s yet to make his affiliated debut. Seattle backed up the Brinks truck and doled out a massive bonus to convince the young shortstop to join the organization — $4.7 million, to be exact. Given his age in 2024, 18, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Seattle send him to the Complex League.
Scouting Report: The Seattle Times (03/28/2023) has an interesting quote from Mariners manager Scott Servais, who watched him take BP:
“I saw Fernando Tatis Jr. when he was about to be 16 years old. I’ve seen a young Elvis Andrus at 18 years old. Guys like that. It’s very interesting. It’s just his skill set and his actions. He’s got it. You can see this kid growing and projecting, getting bigger. He looks the part, but he needs to play and get some things cleaned up. But the skill set is electric. It’s the switch-hitting and it’s pretty cool.”
Watching developmental tape of Celesten and it is immediately clear: the kid can play. He’s so unbelievably fluid at shortstop, moving like a 10-year veteran. Very fundamentally sound. Quick and fast. It’s clear Celesten is still learning the finer nuances of switch-hitting; he looks robotic and lacking explosion as a lefty. From the right side, he’s already showing bat speed and power as a young teenager. He’s one of the prospects to watch in 2024.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2028
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5. Michael Arroyo, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 35/50 | 40 | 50 | 40/50 | 50 |
Background: One of thetop players the front office signed off the international mark in 2022. And Arroyo looked every part the top prospect during his debut in the Dominican Summer League a few months later as he hit .314/.457/.484 with 10 doubles, two triples, four homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases. The Mariners’ decision makers opted to send the Columbian-born middle infielder to the stateside rookie league, but Arroyo had other plans. The diminutive teenager promptly went 7-for-11 with a homerun in four games and the organization relented and pushed him up to full season action. Arroyo would spend the remainder of the year battling – and often struggling – against the Cal League competition. He would hit a lowly .234/.389/.373 with 17 doubles, three triples, two homeruns, and five stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Despite his slight frame and twitchy movements, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his develop 15- to 20-homer thump in the coming years. He could POP in a big way in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following;
Since 2006, only three 18-year-old hitters posted a 113 to 123 wRC+ mark with a double-digit walk rate and a 19% to 21% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 250 PA): Justin Upton, Cheslor Cuthbert, and Michael Arroyo.
The teenager shows an advanced feel for the strike zone, often times spitting on offspeed offerings just off the plate. An above-average runner with a line-drive swing, but I think he grows into average power. Arroyo had no issues making contact against the much older pitching in Low-A last season, even though the swing is a bit too long for my liking. Defensively, he looked a bit stretched at shortstop. Combine that with his small frame and he’s a likely candidate to switch to the right side of second base. Arroyo is tracking like a solid starter at this junction.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026/2027
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6. Tai Peete, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 50 |
Background: A two-sport star at Trinity Christian, Peete, who starred on the basketball court as well as the diamond, spent his time with the Lions under the tutelage of former big leaguer Tommy Gregg. A former seventh round pick by the Pirates in 1985, Gregg spent parts of nine seasons in the big leagues, hitting .243/.301/.363 in 446 career games. Peete, a lefty-hitting shortstop, blossomed during his junior campaign at Trinity Christian, slugging an impressive .400/.538/.716 with five doubles, one triple, and four homeruns. The 6-foot-2, 193-pound infielder raised the bar even higher during his final amateur campaign last season: he batted .444/.563/1.074 with seven doubles, four triples, and 12 homeruns. Seattle, who collects young infielders as frequently as the Cleveland Guardians, selected Peete in the opening round, 30th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.5 million. Peete split his debut between the Complex League and California League, hitting a solid .283/.349/.404 with four doubles, one triple, two homeruns, and six stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Peete flirted – briefly – with the mound during his amateur career. Athletic enough to stay at shortstop and a plus arm to make all the difficult throws, Peete possesses surprising – and impressive – pop for a middle infield prospect. But he seems to sell out at times in an effort to elevate the ball. The hit tool is a bit underwhelming. But the power, glove, and position give him the potential to grow into a solid league average player.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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7. Jonny Farmelo, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A little bit of a fun fact about Westfield High School: Located in Chantilly, Virginia, the Bulldogs have produced just two draft picks in their 23-year history – both of them going in the opening round of the midsummer draft. The Baltimore Orioles selected power-hitting teenage backstop Brandon Snyder with the 13th overall pick in 2005. Eighteen years later the Mariners snagged outfielder Jonny Farmelo with their second (of three) first round selections. Previously committed to the University of Virginia, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound outfielder torched the competition throughout his tenure with the Bulldogs, posting a career .385/.546/.773 slash line, slugging 22 doubles, one triple, and seven homeruns in 48 games. Seattle acquired the 29th overall pick as a reward for Julio Rodriguez capturing the American League Rookie of the Year in 2022. The Mariners signed the Virginia-born outfielder to a deal worth $3.2 million. He did not make his debut after signing with the organization.
Scouting Report: Muscular, yet lean build that still has some ability to add strength and bulk as he matures. Good bat speed, not elite. Farmelo shows the ability to drive the ball out of the park, but his swing is more geared towards line drives. There may be some contact issues as he transitions into the minor leagues. Not sold on the overall hit tool.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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8. Emerson Hancock, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 60 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Between 2018 and 2020, the Mariners’ brass used each of their three first round picks on collegiate pitchers, grabbing righties Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock in successive years. While Gilbert and Kirby have established themselves as some of the better young starting pitchers at the Major League level, Hancock’s quietly drifted down the club’s Top Prospect lists for the last couple of seasons. Taken with the sixth overall pick in the topsy-turvy 2020 draft, Hancock blitzed through High-A and reached Double-A by the end of his first full professional season. He would spend all of 2022 back with the Arkansas Travelers in the Texas League. And then the front office sent him back to Double-A to begin last season. The former first rounder would make 20 starts, throwing 98.0 innings while posting a 107-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 4.32 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, and a 4.43 xFIP. Seattle would call him up in early August, but his big league debut lasted just three (mediocre) games before a Grade 1-plus right shoulder strain. There was no structural damage during the inquiry.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The polished approach at pitching is still in place, but Hancock no longer looks – or, more importantly, feels – like a special pitching prospect, one that could take that final step towards the front of a big league rotation.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 24-year-old hurlers posted a 25% to 27% strikeout percentage with an 8% to 10% walk percentage with one club in Double-A (min. 90 IP): Collin McHugh, Louie Varland, and – of course – Emerson Hancock.
Hancock never really panned out as well as many prognosticated, even entering that 2020 draft. His fastball, which used to touch the upper 90s, now settles in the low 90s and will touch a tick or two higher. His slider isn’t as dominant as it once was. But he does have that phenomenal changeup, which is going to be his true key to big league success. The control he showed during his final two seasons in college was based on overpowering less talented competition and not actual command, which now grades out as a 45. Assuming he can grab the ball consistently every fifth day, the former sixth overall pick profiles as a #5 starter or solid relief arm.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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9. Tyler Locklear, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Here’s the list of former VCU (Virginia Commonwealth University) players that have been drafted before the third round in school history: Matt Burch (1st round, Kansas City Royals), Brandon Inge (2nd round, Detroit Tigers), and Tyler Locklear, taken by the Mariners in the second round two years ago. A tremendous masher during his final two collegiate seasons with the Rams, Locklear made the transition to wood bats with aplomb as he batted .285/.366/.504 mostly with Modesto. Last season the former second round pick missed two months dealing with a right hand injury, but his statistics hardly showed it. Appearing in 85 games (two in the Complex League, 61 with Modesto, 22 with Arkansas), he hit .288/.405/.502 with 25 doubles, one triple, 13 homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases (without being caught). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 46%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Huge natural uppercut on the swing as he drops his back shoulder to help elevate the ball better. He’s big and slow, so he’s not long for the hot corner. If he can walk at a good clip, he’ll be a TTO (Three True Outcomes) hitter. Right now, he looks one dimensional.
Scouting Report: A little bit of a Kevin Youkilis-type stance at the plate, upright with his hands held high. Locklear has performed better than expected in terms of contact rate, which hasn’t been a concern at this point in his minor league career. The former VCU slugger possesses plus raw power and above-average in-game pop. It’s tough to be a first base-only prospect because there’s not a lot of wiggle room since the skill set is typically limited, and that’s the case here. 45-grade bat, 55-grade power. It’s the foundation of a low end starter at the big league level.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Gabriel Gonzalez, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The EverettAquaSox, the organization’s Northwest League affiliate, had a tremendous amount of talent cross the foul lines in 2023, including the likes of: Harry Ford, Cole Young, Tyler Locklear, Alberto Rodriguez, Jonatan Clase, and Gabriel Gonzalez. Signed out of Carupano, Venezuela prior to the 2021 season, Gonzalez was nothing short of spectacular during his debut in the foreign rookie league a few months later as he slugged .287/.371/.521 with 26 extra-base hits in only 54 games. The front office sent the 5-foot-10, 165-pound corner outfielder to the stateside rookie league to begin 2022, but after torching the competition across 35 games (.357/.421/.548), he was deemed ready to square off against the more advanced arms in Low-A. And he passed that test too, batting .286/.400/.389 in 32 contests. Last season, the front office took the cautious approach and sent Gonzalez back to Modesto for some additional seasoning. He responded with a .348/.403/.530 slash line in 73 games. Seattle would push him up to Everett in mid-July, though the 19-year-old struggled for the remainder of the year. Gonzalez finished the 2023 season with an aggregate .298/.361/.476 slash line with 23 doubles, four triples, 18 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases. His production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 24%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Gonzalez continues to fly under the radar, even in a farm system that’s as thin as the Mariners’. He’s spent some time in centerfield the past two seasons, but he’s better suited for a corner spot where his glove should provide net positive value. He could turn in one of the more surprising breakout campaign in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters posted a 145 to 155 wRC+ total with a sub-15% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): Luis Arraez, Miguel Vargas, Nick Yorke, and – of course – Gabriel Gonzalez. Not a bad collection of young hitters, though it should be noted it was technically Gonzalez’s second (brief) stint in Low-A.
Gonzalez falls into the same category as most of the club’s other top young hitting prospects: strong, strong contact rates. The teenage outfielder whiffed in less than 14% of his plate appearances during both stints in Low-A. He’s not overly patient, and he’s shown a willingness to expand the zone at times on good offspeed pitches. His power took a nice step forward last season, moving into average territory. He needs some more experience in High-A before moving up to the real test of Double-A. If he can lay off the stuff low-and-away, there’s league average potential here. If not, he’s going to head down the Oscar Gonzalez path.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
