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1. Curtis Mead, 2B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: At the time, Mead’s signing with the Phillies barely caused a ripple on the baseball newswire. Philly agreed to a $200,000 deal with the Australian-born infielder back in early May five years ago. Mead would make his stateside debut the following summer, appearing in 44 games with the ball club’s Gulf Coast League affiliate, hitting a respectable .285/.351/.462 as an 18-year-old squaring off against similarly aged prospects. A few months after the season the Phillies worked out a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, agreeing to send Mead southward for hard-throwing, erratic lefty Cristopher Sanchez – another transaction that hardly caused waves. Mead, a 6-foot-2, 171-pound infielder, would spend that offseason battering the Australian Baseball League competition to the tune of .309/.373/.485. COVID would crush the 2020 minor league season before it even began, so the Adelaide native would pop up again in the AUBL the following winter where he could continue to mash, putting together an impressive .347/.385/.569 in 76 plate appearances with the Adelaide Giants. Finally, more than a year-and-a-half after joining the organization, Mead would appear in a Tampa Bay affiliated game in 2021. He shredded the Low-A East pitching (.356/.408/.586), continued to perform better than expected in his promotion up to High-A East (.282/.348/.466), and he caught fire during his brief cameo with Durham at the end of the year. The smooth-swinging second / third baseman hit an aggregate .321/.378/.533 with 38 doubles, two triples, 15 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. Last season, despite dealing with an elbow injury in the second half of the year, Mead slugged .298/.390/.532 with 27 doubles, 13 homeruns, and seven triples in 76 games between Montgomery and Durham. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, surpassed the league average threshold by a staggering 42%.
Scouting Report: After shooting up prospect lists during his breakout 2021 season, Mead followed it up with an even better campaign last year – doing most of the damage at the minors’ most difficult level, Double-A. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Double-A (min. 225 PA): 140 to 150 wRC+, 16% to 20% strikeout rate, and an 8% to 11% walk rate. Those two hitters both happened to accomplish the feat in Tampa Bay’s organization – Justin Williams and – of course – Curtis Mead.
Not only is Mead one of the purest hitters in the Rays’ system, but also in the entire minor leagues. Poised to be a consistent .300 hitter at the big league level, he combines a plus-plus hit tool with developing power that should develop into a perennial 25-homerun total. Patient approach with a knack for barreling up the baseball, Mead’s bat whizz’s through the zone with blistering speed and plenty of natural loft. Tampa Bay had the Australian youngster spend time at both corners of the infield in 2021, but they experimented with him at the keystone in 2022 – and the results were encouraging. There’s Sean Casey-like potential that plays up even more at an up-the-middle position.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Shane Baz, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
Background: Yes, the Chris Archer deal with the Pirates is a slam dunk, no-doubt win for the Rays. But the trio of top prospects Tampa Bay acquired have battled issues over the past couple of seasons. Tyler Glasnow dealt with a wonky elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2021, forcing him to miss the remainder of the year and the overwhelming majority of the 2022 campaign. Austin Meadows, a 2019 All-Star for the Rays, batted a massively disappointing .228/.311/.440 over his final two seasons with the club and was shipped off to Detroit last April for Isaac Paredes. And Baz, who was the Player To Be Named Later in the Archer deal, had not one, but two surgical procedures on his precious right elbow in 2022. In late March Baz underwent the knife to remove loose bodies in joint and was shut down for a couple weeks. He made it back to a minor league mound in mid-May. But just two months later he hit the disabled list and eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery. Originally taken by the Pirates with the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft; Baz finished the year with a total of 13.0 innings with Durham and another 27.0 frames with the Rays. For his minor league career, he’s averaging 10.8 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. And he’s averaging 10.7 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings in his brief cups of big league coffee.
Scouting Report: Early in his career the question was whether Baz would be able to harness his high octane arsenal enough to capitalize on his vast potential. But after his command took several leaps forward over the past several seasons, the next question he needs to answer is whether he can consistently take the rock every fifth day for the duration of a season. He hasn’t surpassed the 100-inning threshold at any point in his professional career (note: part of his 2021 season was spent on Team USA’s Olympic squad, though he tossed fewer than 3.0 innings). Between both elbow procedures last season, Baz’s arsenal looked as good as ever. A plus-plus fastball that sat in the 96- to 98-mph range, a plus upper 80s slider, an average low 80s curveball, and a solid-average changeup. Baz is more than the typical strike-thrower. He commands the zone well with all four of his offerings. There’s true ace potential here.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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3. Taj Bradley, RHP
| FB | CB | SL/CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
Background: The Rays’ 2018 draft class has already been a smashing success. The club added southpaws Matthew Liberatore (who was dealt away for Randy Arozarena) and ace Shane McClanahan in the first round. Six rounds later they selected Joe Ryan and signed him to a team-friendly deal for less than $150,000. Ryan was eventually traded as part of the package to Minnesota for Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher. And that’s not including the potential of Taj Bradley. Taken in the fifth round, 150th overall, that year, Tampa Bay signed the Redan High School product to an above-slot bonus of nearly $750,000. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound right-hander exploded up prospect charts during his dominant breakout two years ago. He tallied a tidy 1.83 ERA while blowing the doors off the Low-A and High-A competition. And he continued his meteoric rise as he split time between Montgomery and Durham in 2022. Making a career high 28 starts, Bradley pitched 133.1 innings, recording an impressive 141-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.57 ERA. For his career, he’s averaged 10 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings over parts of four years.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hurlers posted a 20% to 23% strikeout percentage with a 5% to 7% walk percentage in any Triple-A league (min. 50 IP): Michael Wacha and – of course – Taj Bradley. Wacha was an All-Star in 2015 and has spent parts of 10 seasons at the big league level.
Bradley seemed to be tired in his final start of the year against Charlotte Bulls. The broad-shouldered right-hander came out firing in the mid-90s with relative ease, but by the third inning he was working in the lower 90s. When he’s right, he’ll consistent pump mid-90s heat with an above-average slider / cutter. He was more reliant on his average-ish changeup as well. Bradley will also mix in a fringy curveball at times as well. The deuce is more of a steal-a-strike breaking ball rather than quality big league offering. The former fifth rounder commands the zone well, particularly with his fastball. Bradley should be ready to slide into a mid-rotation spot by midseason 2023.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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4. Cole Wilcox, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55/60 | 60 | 60 |
Background: The University of Georgia ace was one of the largest over-slot signings in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 draft class. The Padres signed the third rounder to a massive $3.3 million deal after a nearly unhittable – albeit incredibly short – campaign with the Bulldogs; he posted an unimaginable 32-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only a quartet of earned runs in only 23.0 innings that spring. Before he could make his affiliated debut in the San Diego organization, the Friars sent Wilcox, along with Francisco Mejia, Luis Patino, and Blake Hunt for Cy Young-winning southpaw Blake Snell. Settling in with the Rays’ pitching development program, Wilcox continued his dominant run during his professional debut in 2021, averaging 10.6 strikeouts and just 1.0 walk per nine innings. He eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery in mid-September 2021. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound right-hander made it back to the mound in early August last season, making three appearances in the Complex League and another four starts with the Charleston RiverDogs. He tossed 16.0 innings, recording 24-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 3.94 ERA.
Scouting Report: The former Bulldog ace might be the only pitcher in the minor leagues that a catcher will signal for two separate fastballs. His battery mate will use one finger for a four-seamer and use two fingers for his two-seamer. Both offerings are of the plus variety. The four-seamer is straight with riding, explosive life. The two-seamer shows plus movement down-and-away from left-handed hitters. He’ll complement the offerings with a pair of strong offspeed pitches: a plus, hard-biting slider and an above-average changeup that remains one of the most underrated in the minor leagues. Despite the loss of development time over the past several seasons, Wilcox has had no issues commanding the strike zone with all three pitches. Assuming there aren’t any setbacks from the elbow injury, the big 6-foot-5, 232-pound right-hander is poised to become one of the biggest risers in baseball in 2023. Big, big breakout candidate. LOVE him.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Carson Williams, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
Background: The opening round of the 2021 draft saw 11 shortstops go within the first 36 selections, including nine high school players. The second to last of those teenagers was Carson Williams, whom the Rays snagged with the 28th overall pick. A product of Torey Pines High School, Williams joined the organization after signing for a $2,347,500. He put together a solid – albeit abbreviated – debut in the Complex League that summer, hitting .282/.404/.436 with four doubles, one triple, and a pair of stolen bases. Last season the Rays sent the 6-foot-2, 180-pound shortstop up to full season action. He responded with an impressive .252/.347/.471 slash line, belting out 22 doubles, 10 triples, and 19 homeruns to go along with 28 stolen bases (in 38 attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 24%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+ total and a strikeout rate between 30% to 34%. Those four hitters: M.J. Melendez, Khalil Lee, Alex De Jesus, and Carson Williams.
Williams was far more productive than expected in several facets of the game during his first full season in the minor leagues. He showed far more thump and flashed impressive leather at the infield’s most important position. On the other hand, the overall hit tool wasn’t as advanced as expected either as he whiffed in nearly one-third of his plate appearances. Even if the hit tool hovers somewhere between the 40- and 45-grade territory, there should be enough secondary skills to make him an above-average big league shortstop.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Kyle Manzardo, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Viewed as a production over projection pick two years ago. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound first baseman put together a solid career at Washington State, shining brightly during his junior campaign with the Cougars as he bashed .366/.437/.640 with 19 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns in 47 games. Tampa Bay – in a very Tampa Bay-like move – selected the junior slugger in the second round, 63rd overall, and signed him to a deal for a smidgeon less than $750,000. The lefty-swinging Manzardo continued to mash as got his first look at minor league pitching, hitting .349/.440/.605 in 50 plate appearances in the Complex League. Last season, the front office brass pushed the advanced hitter straight up to High-A, completely bypassing a stop in Charleston. And Manzardo did what he’s done for several years – hit. The Idaho native shredded the Advanced-A competition through 63 games and continued to dominate during his 30-game cameo with Montgomery. The former second rounder finished his first full season with an aggregate .327/.426/.617 slash line with 26 doubles, one triple, 22 homeruns, and one stolen base. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by a whopping 72%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been 635 hitters that earned at least 250 plate appearances during their age-21 season in any High-A league. Of those 635 hitters, Manzardo’s overall production was the fourth highest, trailing Ryan McKenna, Miles Head, and Michael Chavis.
Among all minor league hitters with at least 250 plate appearances in 2022, Manzardo’s 172 wRC+ was second highest, trailing only San Francisco’s Vaun Brown, who was three years older than the Rays’ young power hitter. Manzardo did a little bit of everything last season: he hit for average, hit for power, walked a bunch, made consistent contact, handled lefties and righties well, and he even provided some positive value with the leather too. Short swing, but long through the zone. Manzardo is a really good offspeed hitter and shows an uncanny ability to adjust mid-pitch. The history of the minor leagues has been littered with power-hitting, lethal first baseman and very few actually produce at the big league level. Manzardo won’t be one of them. He’s going to continue to hit and hit well. He has a ceiling as a .310/.380/.460-type hitter.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Junior Caminero, 3B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50/30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: If there already wasn’t enough evidence to never trade with the Rays, consider this just another example of the risks of dealing with the organization. Following the conclusion of the 2021 season, the Guardians dealt Junior Caminero to Tampa Bay for veteran minor league hurler Tobias Myers, who was coming off of a dominant campaign in Double-A and Triple-A as he set career bests in strikeout rate (11.2 K/9) to go along with his consistent ability to throw strikes (2.1 BB/9). Fast forward seven months: Myers looked abysmal in Cleveland’s system and he was eventually dealt to the San Francisco Giants for cash considerations. Roughly three weeks later San Francisco designated the right-hander for assignment and he was claimed by the White Sox. That stint lasted a couple months before his release. Milwaukee eventually signed him to a minor league deal. As for Caminero, well, he went from a low level lottery ticket to becoming one of the Rays’ top young hitting prospects. Originally signed by the Guardians in 2019, Caminero made his professional debut two years later with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate, hitting a robust .295/.380/.534 as a 17-year-old in the offensive-friendly confines. Last season, his first in Tampa’s system, Caminero torched the Complex League and spent the last several weeks bashing the Low-A competition. He finished the year with an aggregate .314/.384/.498 slash line with seven doubles, two triples, 11 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases (in 13 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 42%.
Scouting Report: Caminero packs considerable wallop for a 5-foot-11, 157-pound infield prospect (though he looks at least two pounds heavier than his listed weight). Big leg kick and a vicious right-handed swing. Watching Caminero’s cuts leaves the impression that he’s selling out for long ball power, but he’s made consistent contact in his young career. Defensively, Caminero’s split time between both positions on the left side of the infield, but he’s likely to gain additional girth that pushes him permanently to the hot corner. He’s tracking like a league average starting option with the ceiling as a .270/.330/.460 type hitter.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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8. Mason Montgomery, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50/55 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The Rays had their sights set on a lot of hitters during the early stages of the 2021 draft, selecting everyday players with their first six selections. Their first hurler, Mason Montgomery, wasn’t chosen until the sixth round. A highly touted prospect coming out of Leander High School, Montgomery, who was originally selected by the White Sox in the latter rounds of the 2018 draft, struggled through a disappointing freshman season at Texas Tech. He tallied a 5.14 ERA and walked (26) more than he fanned (24) in 35.0 innings of work. But things seemed to click for the 6-foot-2, 195-pound southpaw during his COVID-abbreviated 2020 season, though, as he averaged 10 punch outs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. And he continued to show flashes of brilliance during his final season with the Red Raiders as well. Throwing a career best 63.2 innings, Montgomery struck out 84 and walked 27. After Tampa Bay selected him with the 191st pick and signed him for $222,500 – roughly $20,000 below the recommended slot bonus. The Texas-born lefty put together one of the most dominant debuts in recent memory as he punched out 20 and walked just one in 10.2 innings of work in the Complex League. And Montgomery continued to impress during his first full season in pro ball. In 27 High-A and Double-A starts, the southpaw fanned 171 and walked 43.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been twenty-two instances of a hurler posted a 23.5% to 25.5% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage of 6.5% to 8.5% in any Double-A league during their respective age-22 season (min. 50 IP): David Price, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anibal Sanchez, Justin Masterson, Luke Jackson, Michael Fulmer, Mitch Talbot, Wade LeBlanc, Trevor Stephan, Adam Warren, Brian Moran, Brian Shaffer, Connor Seabold, Fernando Hernandez, Jackson Kowar, Javier Solano, Juan Gutierrez, Robert Dugger, Angel Zerpa, Ky Bush, and – of course – Mason Montgomery.
Producing in Double-A at the same level as a litany of current and former big leaguers, Montgomery was one of the largest surprises in the Tampa Bay system last year. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound southpaw works out of the stretch and he’s an extreme short-armer, which adds deception to his average fastball. Montgomery’s a peculiar pitcher. His fastball velocity is fringy in today’s game, generally hovering in the 90- to 92-mph range, though it can touch the mid-90s on occasion. But hitters – very talented minor league hitters – seem to always be late on the offering, particularly the first time through the order which makes him an ideal “opener” candidate. His slider is average, but can be a smidge better when he’s locating it down. His changeup hovers in the same territory as well, but consistency makes it the better option.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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9. Willy Vasquez, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45/55 | 60/40 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The ball club signed the infielder out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic at the end of July in 2019. Vasquez made his abbreviated debut just weeks after joining the organization, batting a scorching .364/.370/.455 in 11 games in the foreign rookie league. After Minor League Baseball returned from its COVID hibernation, Vasquez made the leap up to the organization’s Complex League affiliate without missing a beat; he hit a respectable .288/.382/.411 with six doubles, three triples, two homeruns, and 14 stolen bases. Last season the Dominican infielder – finally – moved into full season action, appearing in 113 games with the Charleston RiverDogs. He finished the year with a .256/.313/.410 with 21 doubles, nine triples, 10 homeruns, and 25 stolen bases (in 28 total attempts). His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 1% below the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Low-A season (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, 24% to 27% strikeout rate, and a 6.5% to 8.5% walk rate. Those four hitters: Michael A. Taylor, Dylan Cozens, Aaron Whitefield, and – of course – Willy Vasquez.
Vasquez showcases above-average raw power, but he’s just beginning to tap into it during games. Above-average speed. Enough leather to man third base (his likely landing spot). Last year proved to be a tale of two seasons for Vasquez: he start 2022 off hitting a lowly .202/.263/.296 over his first 58 games, but caught fired and slugged .320/.377/.537 over his remaining 59 contests. If he can maintain the second half production for the majority of 2023, Vasquez could be a consensus Top 100 prospect. I’m betting big on his final 59 contests.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Mason Auer, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The early returns on the club’s 2021 draft class have been beyond phenomenal. Carson Williams bat has provided more power than expected and his glove-work was nothing short of extraordinary during his debut. Kyle Manzardo was one of the most lethal bats in all of the minor leagues. Left-hander Mason Montgomery is knocking – loudly – on the big league club’s door. And, of course, there’s Mason Auer who was taken 30 selections before Montgomery. After spending his freshman season at Missouri State University, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound centerfielder transferred to JuCo San Jacinto College where he promptly dominated by slugging .373/.524/.622 with 11 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and 36 stolen bases. Auer struggled a bit during his debut in the Complex League, though, hitting a mediocre .265/.309/.324 in 11 games. Last season, the toolsy outfielder rebounded as he spent time with Charleston and Bowling Green. He slugged an aggregate .290/.372/.487 with 21 doubles, 12 triples, 15 homeruns, and 48 stolen bases (in only 55 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 34%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a High-A season (min. 250 PA): 128 to 138 wRC+ total, 8.5% to 11.5% walk rate, and a 23.5% to 25.5% strikeout rate. Those three hitters: Sean Rodriguez, Michael Choice, and – of course – Mason Auer.
A speedster on the base paths that’s translated in additional value in centerfield, Auer breezed through the lower levels with relative ease and he’s primed to spend a significant portion – if not all – of 2023 in Double-A. His swing’s a bit long, so his batting average may stumble against more advanced pitching. But there’s enough in the secondary / peripheral tank to make him a valuable asset at the big league level. Auer’s the typical Tampa Bay prospect with versatility and tons of tools. He’s tracking like a fourth outfielder.
Ceiling: 1.5- to2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
