Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Julio Rodriguez, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 50/60 | 55 | 55/60 | 55/60 | 70 |
Background: Looking back at the 2017 international free agent market only solidifies just how difficult it is to predict player development behind Wander Franco, the consensus #1 prospect available at the time. MLB Pipeline listed Julio Rodriguez as the 9th best prospect, behind the likes of: Daniel Flores, Jelfry Marte, Everson Pereira, Eric Pardinho, Raimfer Salinas, Luis Garcia, and Antonio Cabello. Baseball America had a slightly different list, listing Rodriguez as the 6th best teenager behind Flores, Ronny Mauricio, Pereira, and George Valera. Fast forward five years and it’s clear that (A) Wander Franco is going to be a superstar and (B) Seattle’s young outfielder has the potential – and minor league production – to follow suit. Standing a solid 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, Rodriguez made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League a year after joining the Mariners’ organization, slugging a rock solid .315/.404/.525 in the offensive-friendly environment. The Mariners immediately placed him on an aggressive development schedule after that. Rodriguez spent time at Low-A and High-A the next season, batting .326/.390/.540 as an 18-year-old against the significantly older competition. As baseball returned from its COVID absence last season, the front office bounced the then-20-year-old back down to High-A for a tune-up before sending him to the minors’ toughest challenge, AA, in late June. The Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, native finished his third full season of professional action with a stellar .347/.441/.560 slash line, belting out 19 doubles, two triples, 13 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a monstrous 69%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The Mariners’ future face-of-the-franchise does everything else at an above-average or plus level. He’s going to be a perennial .300/.370/.550 type hitter, though he likely slides over into right field permanently.
Scouting Report: Consider the following little tidbits:
- There were 853 different hitters that received at least 300 plate appearances in the minor leagues last season. Rodriguez’s total offensive production, 169 wRC+, ranked second. He trailed only the Yankees’ Anthony Volpe, who was playing a level under Rodriguez. And both were the same age (20), by the way.
- The next best offensive production by a 20-year-old or younger was 18-percentage points less than Rodriguez: St. Louis’ Jordan Walker, who tallied a 151 wRC+.
- Rodriguez’s 1.001 OPS was the ninth best among the same group.
Now let’s take a look at how his production stacks up from a historical perspective. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ of at least 160 and a sub-20% strikeout rate in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 200 PA): Eric Hosmer, Dilson Herrera, and Julio Rodriguez.
- Rodriguez, by the way, owns the best mark among the trio, by seven percentage points.
And if you’re not willing to buy into Rodriguez’s incredible production at the Double-A level last season just yet, how’s this for a kicker? He hit .362/.461/.546 with Arkansas, which, according to Baseball America’s park factors, is the single most pitcher-friendly home field in all three Double-A leagues. Not only does Rodriguez do everything, but he does everything incredibly well. He hits for average. He hits for power, though he’s just starting to tap into his power potential. He has above-average speed. He makes consistent contact. He walks – a lot. And he’s an above-average to potential plus defender in right field. There’s zero indication that he’s not going to ascend to the top five players in all of baseball. After he rolled out his new found plus patience at the dish, Rodriguez is tracking to be a .310/.400/.550-type hitter.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. George Kirby, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 70 |
Background: With a name that sounds like he’d be the guy to do your taxes, George Kirby is providing plenty of other reasons to turn heads. A product of Elon University – which, let’s be honest, sounds like an accounting school – Seattle drafted the 6-foot-4, 215-pound right-hander in the opening round, 20th overall, three years ago. After inking a deal worth $3,242,900, Kirby was practically unhittable during his debut with the Everett AquaSox, posting a 25-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23.0 innings of work. Last season the front office – hoping to make up for the lost 2020 year – pushed Kirby up to High-A to begin the season. After nine mostly dominant starts, the hard-throwing right-hander, who also dealt with a bout of right should fatigue, moved up to Arkansas for his final six games. In total, Kirby tossed 67.2 innings of work, averaging a stellar 10.6 punch outs and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. He finished with a 2.53 combined ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Kirby attacks hitters with four average or better offerings: his fastball sits comfortably in the low 90s without much effort and may have some additional growth as his lanky frame begins to fill out; his curveball is a tightly spun 12-6 bender; his slider shows cutter-like characteristics. One final thought: his changeup, when it’s on, could be among the best in the draft.
Scouting Report: It was roughly two years in between the time I scouted Kirby, a favorite of mine coming out of Elon. And I have to be frank: I was absolutely blown away with how much his arsenal improved since entering Seattle’s farm system. (Side note: The Mariners’ front office does not get nearly the credit it deserves for its pitching analytics department; it’s among the best in the game.) Kirby’s heater grew from an above-average, low-90s offering to plus-plus upper-90s one. He features an above-average curveball and a “sit-your-butt-down” slider that’s lethal. And his changeup remains among the best in the game. Plus command. Add it all up and there’s a very high ceiling with the potential to ascend to true ace-dom. This is going to come across a bit skewed, and I certainly don’t take this lightly: but if I were to pick a minor league pitcher that could ascend to the level of Max Scherzer, it’d be George Kirby.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Noelvi Marte, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50/55 | 55/50 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: There aren’t too many organizations and big league farm systems that can boast (A) a player of similar or better potential than Marte or (B) the one-two hitting punch of Julio Rodriguez / Noelvi Marte for one season. Let alone for multiple years like the Mariners, who sported Jarred Kelenic and Rodriguez as their top duo in years past. A year after signing mega-prospect Rodriguez on the international free agency market, Seattle inked the toolsy shortstop to a deal worth slightly more than $1.5 million. Marte would make his debut the following season, 2019, in the foreign rookie league, batting .309/.371/.511 with 18 doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns. And despite losing a year to the COVID shutdown, as well as his relative youth, the front office aggressively pushed the then-19-year-old shortstop straight into Low-A to begin 2021. And Marte was tremendous. In 99 games with the Modesto Nuts, the 6-foot-1, 181-pound prospect slugged .271/.368/.462 with 24 doubles, two triples, and 17 homeruns. He also swiped 23 bags in 30 total attempts. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 19%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ between 115 and 125 with a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 21% and 24% in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Akil Baddoo and – of course – Noelvi Marte.
- Baddoo, of course, is coming off his rookie season in which he slugged .259/.330/.436 for the Detroit Tigers.
Diving into the month-by-month production, Marte’s poor showing in July (.219/.270/.316) really tanked his overall numbers. He slugged .299/.398/.527 in May and June and then finished the year with a .281/.393/.486 showing in August and September. His numbers in Low-A are all that more impressive once his home ballpark is factored in: John Thurman Field, according to Baseball America’s Park Factors, was the least hitter-friendly park in Low-A West last season. Patient approach. Solid contact rates. Above-average power potential. Above-average speed, though I expect it to regress down to average in the coming years. And an above-average glove. Add it all up and he looks like a potential All-Star at his peak.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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4. Emerson Hancock, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | N/A | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Hancock’s prep school alma mater, Cairo High School, is home to former big league Willie Harris, who appeared in over a thousand big league games. Fun Fact Part II: The hard-throwing right-hander became the second highest draft pick out of the University of Georgia, trailing only Jeff Plyburn, the fifth overall pick in 1980. Fun Fact Part III: with the consecutive first round selections of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock between 2018 through 2020, it was first time the organization selected hurlers in the opening round three straight years since 2006 through 2008 (Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont, and Josh Fields). Hancock, who signed a deal with the organization for a hefty $5.7 million as the sixth overall pick two years ago, was limited to just 12 starts between Everett and Arkansas as he battled a non-structural shoulder issue. He posted a 43-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 44.2 innings of work.
Scouting Report: A long time fan of Emerson Hancock, pre-dating his junior campaign with the Georgia Bulldogs. Hancock is built in a similar fashion as fellow Mariners top pitching prospect George Kirby, both physically as well as repertoire-wise. Hancock posses a plus fastball, sitting in the mid-nineties and plays up ever further given his above-average command. Reports indicate he’ll mix in a pair of breaking balls, though I only personally witnessed a plus slider. He seems to vary the break on the pitch, but its plus. He’ll also throw a Zack Greinke power changeup as well, showing plenty of hard tumble. Hancock doesn’t quite have the ceiling that Kirby does, but he’s going to be a very good – sort of Robin to Kirby’s Batman. Barring any significant injury, of course.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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5. Harry Ford, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 45/55 | 50/40 | 50/55 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Prior to the 2021 season North Cobb High School in Kennesaw, GA, has produced six pro baseball players – C.J. Bressoud, Eric McQueen, Skip Shipp, Kyle Reese, Ronnie McGarity, and John Jiles. Fun Fact Part II: The earliest drafted player – at least until Ford’s named was called in the opening round in 2021 – is McQueen, a fourteenth round pick by the Mets after his career at Georgia Tech wrapped up. Fun Fact Part III: Five of the six players were backstops. Ford, committed to Georgia Tech during the summer of 2019. Seattle selected the stocky, well-built prep backstop with the 12th overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $4,366,400. Ford appeared in 19 games with the organization’s Arizona Complex League affiliate, slugging an impressive .291/.400/.582 with seven doubles and 10 dingers to go along with a 14-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“One of the most athletic – either college or prep – prospects in the 2021 draft class. Ford, a [catcher], shows plus bat speed and matching 60-times, as well. He was reportedly clocked in the 6.4-range in the 60-yard dash. The 5-foot-10, 200-pound athlete shows natural loft that suggests 20- to 25-homerun power potential. Simplified stance with very few moving parts. Premium athlete that will likely move to another position to hasten his develop. Strong lower half. Fast hands. Defensively, it’s not an overly quick release and the arm is average, maybe a tick better. One of my favorite prospects in the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team like Kansas City jump all over him.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Adam Macko, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55/60 | 65 | 45/50 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: According to the invaluable Baseball Reference, only two players in baseball history have been born in Slovakia and made it to the big leagues: right-hander Jack Quinn, who’s a borderline Hall of Famer, and right fielder Elmer Valo, who turned in a very solid, respectable 20-year career. Taken in the seventh round, 216th overall, in 2019, Adam Macko could be the third player born in the country and ascend up to the big leagues. After moving from Bratislava, the left-hander’s family eventually settled in Albert, Canada. After a solid debut in 2019, Macko battled a shoulder injury / issue and missed several weeks last season. In total, he was limited to just nine starts, spanning 33.1 innings – though he managed to average a mindboggling 15.1 punch outs per nine innings (as well a 5.7 BB9).
Scouting Report: High ceiling southpaw, which is surprising given his draft status (seventh round, 2019) and unimpressive frame size (6-foot, 170 pounds). But there’s some sneaky, sneaky mid-rotation caliber potential here. Macko is a slinger. His fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s with relatively ease. But it’s his wicked knuckle curveball, referred by him as “spike” curveball in an article on FanGraphs by fantastic writer David Laurila, that separates him from a lot of the pack. He’ll also mix in a changeup which projects as average. Macko’s still incredibly raw, but there’s some Erik Bedard-type potential here. He needs to further develop his changeup. And his command has to bump up at least to a 45. He also has to avoid the injury nexus as well – obviously.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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7. Gabriel Gonzalez, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 40/55 | 50/40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The early part of last year the Mariners added a bevy of high end international talent, including the likes of third baseman Starlin Aguilar, outfielder Juan Cruz, outfielder Victor Labrada, and a little bit lesser known Gabriel Gonzalez. Barely cracking Baseball America’s Top 30 International Prospect list, Gonzalez, ranked as #30, agreed to join the organization for a deal worth slightly more than a million dollars. The 5-foot-10, 165-pound right fielder made his debut in the foreign rookie league last season. Appearing in 54 games, the teenage Venezuelan slugged a hearty .287/.371/.521 with 15 doubles, four triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped nine bags in 12 total attempts. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 41%.
Scouting Report: Gonzalez outperformed his two fellow high profile Dominican Summer League counterparts – Starlin Aguilar and Juan Cruz – by sizeable amounts. Considering the offensively-friendly environment, Gonzalez performed well, showing no major red flags. He whiffed in a modest amount of his plate appearances (15.8%). He walked a decent amount time (9.5%), which is preferred so as to not overly inflate his production at such a low minor league level. He showed power and speed. During his time in the Dominican Summer League, when Gonzalez connected it sounded like a shotgun blast. Good bat speed, not elite. There’s quite a bit of potential here, but he’s years away.
And he needs to get stronger, lean out some as well. Just for comparison’s sake, consider the following:
| Player | Age | Level | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% | wRC+ |
| Julio Rodriguez | 17 | DSL | 255 | 0.315 | 0.404 | 0.525 | 15.7% | 11.8% | 161 |
| Gabriel Gonzalez | 17 | DSL | 221 | 0.287 | 0.371 | 0.521 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 141 |
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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8. Alberto Rodriguez, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50 | 50/40 | 50 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The front office played the game perfectly, to a “T”. The organization signed their former first rounder selection Taijuan Walker to an incredibly team-friendly one year, $2 million deal in mid-February 2020. A little more than six months later the club flipped him to Toronto in exchange for Dominican outfielder Alberto Rodriguez. Last season, his first full year in Seattle’s increasing savvy organization, the 5-foot-11, 180-pound prospect spent the majority of the campaign with the Modesto Nuts. In 93 games, spanning 431 plate appearances, Rodriguez batted .295/.383/.484 with 30 doubles, five triples, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped 13 bags, though he was thrown out seven times. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 27%. He also spent the final seven games of his season in High-A as well.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): a 122 to 132 wRC+, a walk rate between 11% and 13%, and a strikeout percentage between 21% and 24%. T hose four hitters: Travis Harrison, Max George, Brandon Valenzuela, and – of course – Alberto Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is reminiscent of a young Rusty Greer, a short, compact swing with some power and speed. The young outfield is adept at recognizing breaking pitches, particularly low, but he does loved elevated fastballs. No platoon splits. And he can play the hell out of right field. There may be an outside shot he reaches a low end starting production level, but he’s going to have to carry a similar level of production for the next two years.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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9. Zach DeLoach, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: It was a curious path to the professional ranks for the Texas A&M product. DeLoach turned in a solid true freshman campaign in 2018: .264/.355/.374. And he continued to mash in the Northwoods League during the ensuing summer as well (.323/.409/.495). But something happened with the Ivring, Texas, native during his sophomore campaign as he struggled – mightily – to the tune of .200/.318/.294 with just eight extra-base hits. Something clicked as he moved into the Cape Cod League, slugging a scorching .353/.428/.541 in 37 games with the Falmouth Commodores. And DeLoach got off to a tremendous start to the 2020 year too: he batted .421/.547/.789 with a spectacular 3-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 18 games. Seattle drafted him in the second two years ago. Last season the 6-foot-1, 205-pound outfielder picked up in High-A right where he left off: he hit .313/.400/.530 with 23 doubles, two triples, and nine homeruns in only 58 games. But like fellow 2020 draft pick Kaden Polcovich, DeLoach looked overmatched and underprepared when he moved into Double-A; he hit a lowly .227/.338/.384.
Scouting Report: DeLoach actually got off to a solid start in Double-A, hitting .269/.367/.436 through his first 21 games. But a late season collapse tanked his numbers at the level; he .191/.329/.309 over his final 18 games. The lefty-swinging outfielder showed average power with the potential to peak at 20 dingers in a full professional season. But the fact is simple: DeLoach has the basic toolkit as a lot of failed high round college outfielders, like Brad Snyder, Michael Choice, etc… And his struggles in the Arizona Fall League don’t help assuage that gut feeling.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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10. Edwin Arroyo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35/45 | 30/40 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Uniquely talented as a ballplayer. Not only is the young infielder a switch-hitting, but he’s also an ambidextrous thrower. Born in Arecibo, Puerto Rica, Arroyo became the first player drafted out of Arecibo Baseball Academy when the Mariners selected him in the second round, 48th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,650,000. He appeared in 21 games in the Arizona Complex League after joining the organization, hitting a disappointing .211/.337/.324 with a pair of doubles and homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 16% below the league average mark. Arroyo spent the winter playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, batting a solid .296/.367/.370 in 13 games.
Scouting Report: Arroyo’s a potentially premium athlete – as evidenced by his work on the mound as an amateur southpaw. The swing from the left side looks more complete than from the right side. I just don’t know if he’s going to (A) hit or (B) hit for any type of meaningful power. As noted by nearly every draft publication, he was one of the class’s youngest players – and he’s only entering his-18 season. Defensively, he’s got enough to stick at shortstop, but he won’t win any Gold Gloves there.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
