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1. Marco Luciano, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/60 | 50/40 | 55 | 45/50 | 70 |
Background: Scouting is a tough gig. No matter how long you’ve been around, players destined for greatness bust, and players destined for the scrapheap succeed. Whether it’s the Pirates passing on Sandy Koufax after his tryout with the ballclub, or 22 teams passing on Mike Trout, or the Giants handing out $6 million to Lucius Fox, or several national pundits ranking Victor Mesa as the top international prospect in 2018, who ahead of Marco Luciano, Diego Cartaya, Noelvi Marte, Orelvis Martinez, and Francisco Alvarez to name few. Luckily for the Giants’ brass, the massive swing-and-miss on Fox didn’t create any doubt to chase Luciano and hand him a hefty $2.6 million bonus. A native of San Francisco de Macoris, Dominican Republic (perhaps, serendipitous), the 6-foot-2, 178-pound shortstop immediately created a buzz as he dug in against the Arizona Summer League, slugging a robust .322/.438/.616 with 21 extra-base hits as a spry 17-year-old. He also appeared in the Northwest League for a handful of games at the end of the year, as well. After losing a year of development time due to the COVID-imposed shutdown, the club’s player development program refused to pump the brakes on Luciano’s express train to stardom: he began the year off in Low-A West, as a 19-year-old. That tour lasted all of 70 games as he slugged a hearty .278/.373/.556 and then the front office shoved him up to High-A – where his bat finally cooled (.217/.283/.295). Luciano finished his second professional season with an aggregate .258/.344/.471 slash line, belting out 17 doubles, five triples, and 19 homeruns.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He flashed tremendous potential as a dynamic top-of-the-lineup bat with an extreme saber-slant. He walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances during his debut. Mix in solid contact rates, above-average speed, strong defense at an up-the-middle position, and plus- to plus-plus power potential and there’s A LOT to love about this kid. Per FanGraphs, Luciano’s average exit velocity, 92 mph, last season was tied as the seventh best among all measured minor league hitters (304 total). Again, he was 17-years-old.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Low-A with one organization (min. 300 PA): 133 to 143 wRC+ total, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 20% and 23%. Those four hitters: Trevor Story, Kyle Blanks, Delino DeShields, and – of course – Mr. Marco Luciano.
The – seemingly – large red flag that’s pockmarked Luciano’s 2021 season would be his abysmal showing in High-A. Except, well, it’s not a concern at all. Luciano struggle for the first week-and-a-half with the Eugene Emeralds, hitting a paltry .105/.167/.263 across his first 42 plate appearances. But after that, though, he slugged .283/.345/.377 over his final 119 plate appearances. Luciano owns a patient approach at the plate and solid contact skills that belie his prodigious power potential. He’ll swipe a handful of bags each season, but that’s almost guaranteed to become a non-skill at full maturity. Defensively, he played a passable Derek Jeter version of shortstop.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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2. Luis Matos, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50/60 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Clearly not an organization that shies away from doling out big money on the international scene (see: Lucius Fox, Marco Luciano, etc…) and Matos, a tools laden center fielder from Venezuela, is just another example. Signed out of Valera for a relatively small sum, at least in comparison to his other highly-touted prospects, Matos received a deal worth $725,000. And he put on a fireworks display during his debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019: he slugged .362/.430/.570 with 24 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and 20 stolen bases in only 55 games. San Francisco bumped him to the stateside rookie league for another five games (.438/.550/.500) to cap off his explosive first season in affiliated ball. Last season, the front office shoved the then-19-year-old, baby-faced outfielder straight up to the wolves of Low-A. And it was Matos’ growling that forced the rest of the pack to take notice. In 109 games with the San Jose Giants, the 5-foot-11, 160-pound dynamo hit .313/.358/.494 with 35 doubles, one triple, 15 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average by 21%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Like a blade quickly and quietly moving through the air, Matos’ swing looks almost effortless. Impressive bat speed and the type of lean, projectable frame that should only add layers of athleticism as he matures. Matos – basically – ran at will during his stint in the Dominican Summer League, but the thick lower half and large plodding steps has me doubting if he’ll continue to do so as he matures. There’s a chance for average or better tools across the board.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters posted 115 to 125 wRC+ total with a sub-14% strikeout rate and a sub-7% walk rate in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Austin Romine and Luis Matos.
Loud tools across the board. Matos is doing everything and he’s doing everything well. He’s making consistent, hard contact. He’s hitting for plenty of power. He’s fast and efficient on the base paths. He’s an above-average defender in center field. And he did so while playing half of his games in ballpark that slants toward pitchers. Elite, elite bat speed. He’s going to be a player for a long time.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Joey Bart, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Looking back at the 2018 draft, less than four full years removed, and it’s readily apparent the power level was off the charts: the top seven selections have already spent time in the big leagues, including 2021 N.L. Rookie of the Year winner Jonathan India; pick number nine bypassed the opportunity to play baseball and simply became one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (Kyler Murray); and Grayson Rodriguez and Nolan Gorman are on the brink of stardom. And that’s just barely scratching the service. But it was Bart, a dynamic athlete, that went #2 overall. Before the ink dried on the contract the 6-foot-2, 238-pound backstop was already being pegged as the heir apparent to Buster Posey’s golden throne. No one in their wildest dreams would have thought (A) that Bart wouldn’t have a strangled hold on the position by now, (B) that Posey would have had the resurgence that he did at the age of 34, (C) or that the future Hall of Famer would’ve walked away, saving the organization from making a very difficult decision. Last season Bart appeared in 67 games with the Sacramento River Cats, slugging a rock solid .294/.358/.472 with 15 doubles and 10 homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by just 7%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s like the Adam Jones the catching. Low walk rates, 30-homer power potential, 55-grade hit tool.
Scouting Report: Bart was hitting a scorching .338/.400/.581 before getting recalled to San Francisco for the final time on July 10th. Then after going 2-for-5 against the Diamondbacks, he was demoted back down to Triple-A and his bat cooled – considerably. He hit a lowly .241/.310/.345 over his remaining 32 games (which included a stint on the disabled list with a quadriceps issue). Bart’s been a good hitter, sometimes very good, but he hasn’t reached the heights that were once projected for him. Now he’s whiffing nearly 30% of the time. The power is above-average and he should have no issue belting out 25 homeruns in a season. Good defense, good arm. In terms of offensive ceiling, think: .265/.340/.480.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020
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4. Jairo Pomares, LF/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 55/65 | 30 | 40 | 45 | 60 |
Background: Every now and then the stars seem to align when an organization collects a vast amount of talent in one fell swoop. The Kansas City Royals added Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jonathan Bowlan, and Kyle Isbel with their first six selections in the 2018 draft (and that doesn’t include Austin Cox or Jon Heasley either). The Cleveland Indians added three-fifths of their big league rotation in mid-rounds of the 2016 draft: Aaron Civale (third round), Shane Bieber (fourth round), and Zach Plesac (12th round). And the San Francisco Giants added a triumvirate of high end talent on the international scene during 2018, signing Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, and – of course – Jairo Pomares. A native of Sancti Spiritus, Cuba, Pomares put on an offensive clinic during his debut with the club’s stateside rookie league affiliate in 2019, hitting .368/.401/.542 in 37 games in 2019. The front office pushed the then-20-year-old up to San Jose to begin last season. But that barely lasted 50 games before he moved onto more difficult competition. When the dust had finally settled, he was sporting an aggregate .334/.378/.629 production line with 27 doubles, one triple, and 20 homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a staggering 55%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Big leg kick with a lightning quick bat that was touted for his power potential prior to signing with the club. Pomares has yet to fully tap into his over-the-fence pop, but showed a knack for consistently barreling up the baseball. If you’re a believer in the power potential – which, personally, I am – than there’s a starting caliber ceiling, likely more.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total of at least 175 in High-A with one organization (min. 200 PA): Anthony Volpe, the Yankees’ top prospect; Alex Kirilloff, a consensus Top 100 prospect before losing his rookie eligibility in 2021; and – course – Jairo Pomares.
Named the franchise’s 2021 Minor League Player of the Year, Pomares looked like the second coming of Babe Ruth during his 51-game stint in Low-A last season, slugging .372/.429/.693 – though his production cooled to league average territory after his promotion up to High-A. He’s never going to be the type to work the count. He may end up posting some 30% strikeout rates in the coming years, but the power is legit. And he’s hit with the type of authority that the average minor leaguer doesn’t possess. Pomares actually got off to a great start with Eugene, hitting .301/.310/.566 over his first 21 games before scuffling over his remaining nine (.139/.139/.306). He’s going to be a low OBP, 35-homerun threat whose overall value will fluctuate according to his batting averages.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Kyle Harrison, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50/55 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: Some people play the game. Other people play the game well. San Francisco’s front office played the 2020 draft game well. The savvy regime selected hard-throwing left-hander Kyle Harrison in the third round, 85th overall. Viewed as a first round talent, the organization didn’t have any qualms about ponying up late first round money – $2,497,500, to be exact – to get the deal done. A year later Harrison’s looking like quite the bargain. In 23 starts with the San Jose Giants in Low-A West, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound southpaw averaged a whopping 14.3 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.19 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, and a 4.06 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Among all minor league arms in 2021, three of the top nine highest strikeout totals (A) came from San Francisco pitching prospects and (B) all pitched for the club’s Low-A affiliate, the San Jose Giants. With respect to Harrison, could the following:
- Since 2006, only seven 19-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage of at least 32% in Low-A with one organization (min. 75 IP): Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Tyler Glasnow, Grayson Rodriguez, Joey Estes, Joey Cantillo, and – of course – Kyle Harrison, the former third round pick.
- Narrowing it a bit: the only two hurlers to fan at last 35% of the hitters they faced: Glasnow and Harrison.
Mid-90s velocity on his explosive fastball coupled with two above-average secondary offerings (changeup and slider). Harrison isn’t your typical teenage power arm. He has full confidence in utilizing his quality offspeed pitches. The slider has tremendous horizontal movement. The changeup is firm, but there’s enough velo separation to make it work. If the command ticks up to average he’s a quality #2/#3 starting pitcher. He could pop in a big way in 2022. He’s a bit of slinger, so platoon splits will have to be monitored (LHH batted .302/.432/.365 in 2021).
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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6. Will Bednar, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 65 | N/A | 55 | 50 |
Background: Like a heavyweight prize fight where each boxer trades off haymaker for haymaker, Bednar went toe-to-toe with Ty Madden, one of the game’s premier amateur hurlers, and came out on top. And when the dust had finally settled, the 6-foot-2, 229-pound right-hander combined with power-armed closer Landon Sims to set a College World Series record with 21 punch outs. A highly touted prospect coming out of Mars Area High School, Bednar, whose older brother David had a breakout season for the Pittsburgh Pirates last year, had his freshman season cut short for the Bulldogs in 2020: he made four appearances, throwing 15.1 innings with 21 strikeouts and 11 free passes. The 2021 season, in many ways, was his first – and only – exposure to college baseball. And he dominated. In 19 appearances, 16 of which were starts, Bednar tossed 92.1 innings, recording a mindboggling 139-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 9-1 record and a 3.12 ERA as his Mississippi State Bulldogs captured the college World Series. San Francisco drafted him with the 14th overall pick and signed him to a deal worth $3,647,500. Bednar made four appearances in the low levels, fanning six and walking one in seven innings.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Bednar prior to the draft last July:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, only six SEC pitchers averaged at least 12 K/9 in a season (min. 75 IP): A.J. Puk, Casey Mize, Asa Lacy, Ethan Small, Zach Thompson, and Mason Hickman, who was the only player in the group not chosen in the first round.
Not bad company to keep for the future first rounder. Bednar ticks off a lot of the important checkboxes: elite production against premier talent, multiple quality offerings, above-average command, workhorse, and – of course – incredibly underrated. Bednar’s fastball sits – effortlessly – in the low 90s and can touch as high as 95 mph. His bread-and-butter offering is a gyro-spinning slider that’s lethal on both lefties and righties. He’ll also mix in an average curveball. And according to reports, he’ll mix in an average changeup (I never saw one). Put him down as a quick moving #3/#4 type arm. Love him. Very safe.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Heliot Ramos, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50/55 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 50 |
Background: The second prep outfielder taken in the 2017 draft. San Francisco selected the 6-foot-1, 188-pound toolsy, but raw center fielder with the 19th overall pick that year, sandwiched between the Tigers’ selection of Alex Faedo and the Mets’ selection of David Peterson. Ramos began his career like every other toolsy, high profile teenage outfielder in the system (or at least that’s how it feels): like a bat out of hell. He slugged .348/.404/.645 in 35 rookie league games. Young for his draft class, Ramos spent the 2018 season as an 18-year-old mostly struggling against the South Atlantic League competition. His production came roaring back the following season in High-A and he held his own for 25 games in Double-A. Last year, with the return of regular minor league action, Ramos labored through a disappointing return to Double-A before spending the second half nestled in the hitter-friendly Triple-A West. In total, the 6-foot-1, 188-pound outfielder hit an aggregate .254/.323/.416 with 25 doubles, three triples, 14 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The lone pockmark (still): his borderline problematic strikeout rates. He whiffed in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in High Class A.
Scouting Report: Ramos’ problematic strikeout rates reared its ugly head again last season as he whiffed in roughly 28% of his plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A. The tools remain in place and, yes, he’s still quite young – he’s only entering his age-22 season – but Ramos has never really dominated a level for an extended period – sans his explosion in High-A three years ago. Otherwise, he’s been good, not great. The batted ball data has typically been off the charts (average exit velocity is 90 mph).
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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8. Patrick Bailey, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50/55 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: When it comes to hitting prospects the Giants’ front office brass loves toolsy international free agents and collegiate catching. The club has used first round selections on big time college backstops in two of the last four drafts, selection Georgia Tech star Joey Bart with the second overall pick in 2018 and then snagging N.C. State catcher Patrick Bailey with the 13th pick two years later. Projected as a slam dunk first rounder since his dynamic freshman season when he slugged .321/.419/.604, Bailey lived up to those expectations two years later when he signed a hefty $3.8 million deal. Last season the 6-foot-1, 210-pound prospect made his debut as he spent the majority of the year in Low-A and High-A. Bailey would hit an aggregate .265/.366/.429 with 25 doubles and nine homeruns in 82 contests, some of which was spent rehabbing in the rookie leagues as he was coming back from a concussion.
Scouting Report: The club aggressively assigned the former Wolfpack slugger to High-A to begin his professional career, but Bailey was woefully overmatched as he batted just .185/.290/.296 across his first 33 games (155 plate appearances). He hit the disabled list for a couple weeks, did a two-game tune-up in the Complex League, and was sent down to Low-A. Finally, his bat came alive. He slugged .326/.420/.561 with 17 doubles and nine dingers in 50 games. He’s not likely going to be much more than a .250 hitter. But Bailey owns enough thump to slug 20 homeruns and post a .340 OBP. Throw in above-average defense and a strong throwing arm and he looks like a lock to be a solid caliber starting option for the Giants in a couple years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Nick Swiney, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 65 | 45 | 45 |
Background: A full time reliever over his first two seasons at N.C. State University. The Wolfpack transitioned the lanky lefty into the rotation permanently during his junior campaign. And the 6-foot-3, 185-pound hurler got off to one helluva start to the 2020 campaign: through four starts, spanning 28.0 innings of work, Swiney struck out 42 and walked just six to go along with a 1.29 ERA. San Francisco selected him in the second round, 67th overall, and handed him an above-slot deal worth $1,197,500. The southpaw kicked off his career professional career in stellar fashion, pitching four innings of one-hit ball while fanning six and walking a pair against the Fresno Grizzlies. Then he hit the disabled list for nearly three months. The reason: a severe concussion that resulted from him knocking his noggin on the bus door. After a five-game detour through the Complex League during his rehab assignment, Swiney popped back up in Low-A in mid-August for six final appearances. During his time with San Jose, he posted a 42-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 24.1 innings of work with a 0.74 ERA.
Scouting Report: Swiney owns an average-ish 89- to 93-mph fastball, but it’s all about the offspeed, baby. Swiney’s curveball shows late sweeping movement away from lefties and into righties. When he’s spotting it correctly, it’s nearly difficult for right-handed hitters to pull it and keep it in play. He also throws my favorite changeup in the minor leagues. It’s slow with a bit of cutting action. It’s Bugs Bunny-esque. The command waivered for Swiney last season and it’s tough to pinpoint the reason: had it regressed back to his freshman and sophomore seasons at N.C. State? Or was it from all the time off? If he can keep the walk rate in the upper 3s / lower 4s he’s a nice little backend option. I really enjoyed watching his carve up the opposition, very much so.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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10. Diego Rincones, LF/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 30 | 50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: Let me know if you’ve heard this one before: the Giants have this outfielder plucked off the international market making his way through the club’s farm system with impressive numbers. Signed out of Cuidad Bolivar, Venezuela, the 6-foot, 175-pound corner outfielder turned in another Rincones-like showing in 2021. Splitting time between Eugene and Richmond, the ballclub’s High-A and Double-A affiliates, the young Venezuelan slugged put together an aggregate .293/.377/.514 triple-slash line, belting out 14 doubles, one three-bagger, and a career best 15 long balls in only 76 games. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 40%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Interesting prospect. If the power takes a step forward, he is instantly a starting contender.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters posted a 135 to 145 wRC+ total with a walk rate between 6% and 9% and a strikeout rate between 16% and 19% in a Double-A season (min. 200 PA): Matt Adams, Brandon Laird, Kyle Waldrop, and Diego Rincones.
In terms of notable hitting prospects in the system, Rincones is the outlier in a lot of ways: he’s not projectable, doesn’t own a standout tool (let alone several), but he produces. And produces. And produces. In fact, beginning with his debut in 2016, Rincones has never posted a production line that’s at least 10% above the average mark. He’s still showing impressive bat-to-ball skills and that hasn’t changed as he’s
developing power that’s closely inching towards a 50-grade. Rincones is still tracking like a fourth outfielder, but he’s going to make a very good case to be given a long look at holding down a permanent job.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
