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1. Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 |
Background: Likely not acoincidence, but Sandra Day O’Connor High School has been home to four draft picks, two coming in 2018 and the other pair being selected in 2008. Gorman, easily the best product to come out of the Phoenix, Arizona, school, was drafted with the 19th overall pick in 2018. The lefty-swinging third baseman was selected between a pair of high profile collegiate players, Brady Singer and Trevor Larnach, both of whom already made their big league debuts, and signed for a hefty $3.2 million bonus. And since signing with the perennial National League powerhouse Gorman has deposited a ton of baseballs over the fence – including 25 in 2021. Splitting time between Springfield and Memphis, St. Louis’s AA and AAA affiliates, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound infielder slugged an aggregate .279/.333/.481 with 20 doubles, one triple, and 25 homeruns. He also went a perfect 7-for-7 in the stolen base department as well. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 15%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Gorman’s one of the more underrated defenders – as well as being one of the best defensive infielders – in the minor leagues. There’s the potential to earn a few Gold Gloves at the major league level. Last year I remarked how Gorman’s ceiling resides in the .250/.340/.540 neighborhood. Throw in some plus-defensive value and all of a sudden you’re staring down the ceiling of a Matt Chapman.
Scouting Report: The young third baseman spent the majority of time with Memphis in Triple-A East in 2021; so let’s take a look at how his production stacks up against his peers. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-olds met the following criteria in AAA in a season with one organization (min. 300 PA): a wRC+ between 100 and 110, a sub-20% strikeout rate, and a K-rate below 8%. Those three hitters: Corey Seager, Manuel Margot, and – of course –Nolan Gorman.
- And just for fun: Seager is career .297/.367/.504 big league hitter, owning a wRC+ total of 132, and Margot is sporting a career .251/.306/.388 with an 87 wRC+ total.
Prior to last offseason Gorman looked like a lock to man St. Louis’s third base gig for at least a decade. But the front office acquired future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado from Colorado for peanuts. So where does that leave Gorman and his elite glove? Second base, of course. Plus in-game power. Improving contact skills to the point where his K-rate dropped from 31.7% in High-A in 2019 all the way down to 19.2% in AAA last year. The lone pockmark on an otherwise impeccable resume: his struggles against southpaws in 2021, the first time in his professional career he’s been impotent against lefties. He batted .191/.250/.278 in 124 plate appearances vs. LHP. Assuming that it’s just a blip, which it should be, Gorman is going to be a star. Oh, one more thing: per FanGraphs, his batted ball data is out of this world. His average exit velocity was 91 mph with a peak of 109 mph. He’s going to put a .300/.360/.560 triple-slash line at some point in his big league career.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Jordan Walker, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 50/60 | 55/45 | 50 | 40/50 | 60 |
Background: Since the inception of the draft, Georgia-based Decatur High School has produced just four draft picks: Dwight Bryant, the 388th overall player in 1975; David Fowlkes, a fifth rounder by Cleveland in 1976; Trumon Jefferson, a 39th round selection by the Rangers in 2011; and – of course – Jordan Walker, the 21st overall pick in 2020. Standing an imposing 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, the massive third baseman had one of the biggest showings in 2021. The baby faced slugger torched the Low-A competition to the tune of .374/.475/.687 through 27 games and continued to dominate following a promotion up to High-A at the end of June. He would bat .292/.344/.487 in 55 games with Peoria. In total, Walker battered the older competition to the tune of .317/.388/.548 with 25 doubles, four triples, 14 homeruns and 14 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average by a mindboggling 51% – tied for the 18th best showing among all MiLB hitters with at least 350 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: No teenager with at least 350 plate appearances was more lethal at the plate last season than the Cardinals’ former first round pick. With respect to his work in High-A, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a High-A season with one organization (min. 225 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, a strikeout rate of at least 24%, and a single digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Gabriel Arias, Hudson Potts, and – of course – Mr. Jordan Walker.
In terms of comparisons, it’s less than promising. Potts has been abysmal in three trips through AA; though Arias looked quite promising in his season with Cleveland’s AAA affiliate last year (.284/.348/.454) as a 21-year-old. I don’t think Walker takes the Potts development path, though. The Cardinals’ young infielder showed an incredible feel for the strike zone and strong contact skills during his abbreviated stint in Low-A at the beginning of the year. His k-rate through his first 33 games in High-A was a reasonable 24.5%. Over his final 22 contests he whiffed 31% of the time. He either (A) tired down the stretch or (B) the league figured him out. If it’s the latter, I’m betting on Walker making the necessary adjustments. Like Nolan Gorman, he’s going to shift away from the hot corner, though Walker’s likely headed for a corner outfield spot. In terms of big league production, think: .280/.350/.490
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: it doesn’t happen too often – or barely ever – but Liberatore could be the rare pitching prospect that reaches his full potential after leaving Tampa Bay’s organization. Originally drafted out of Mountain Ridge High School with the 16th overall pick in 2018, St. Louis acquired the talented southpaw, Edgardo Rodriguez, and a 2020 supplemental second round pick for eventual 2021 AL Rookie of the Year Randy Arozarena and Jose Martinez. Liberatore, a close friend of fellow Cardinals top prospect Nolan Gorman, was aggressively assigned to AAA last year – at the ripe ol’ age of 21. In 22 appearances with Memphis, 18 of which were starts, the 6-foot-4, 200-pound left-hander struck out 123 and walked 33 in a career best 124.2 innings of work. He finished the year with a 4.04 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: St. Louis has generally done well in cultivating young arms and Liberatore could begin to move quickly once the training wheels are removed. A year after prognosticating a potential #2 ceiling, I’m more inclined to bump him down to a true #3, unless some extra velocity develops and/or above-average control/command.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers struck out between 23% and 25% in a season in AAA with one organization (min. 100 IP): Noah Syndergaard, Bryse Wilson, and Liberatore.
Owner of three above-average pitches and poise well beyond his years. Liberatore’s heater sits in the 92- to 94-mph range, but has reached several ticks higher on occasion. His curveball is a legitimate, bonafide swing-and-miss plus offering that tops out at 2800 RPMs. He’ll also showcase – primarily to left-handers – an above-average slider and a firm changeup. Liberatore’s a strike-thrower that mixes speeds well. He’s not destined to become an upper echelon pitcher, but should settle in for St. Louis as a very strong mid-rotation arm.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Ivan Herrera, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 35 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
Background: More of a testament to his Hall of Fame endurance than anything else, but there’s been several catching prospects that have been tabbed as Yadier Molina’s heir apparent. The two that immediately come to mind: Carson Kelly, a sturdy backstop who was dealt to Arizona as part of the package for Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew Knizner. The latest potential long term solution to the Cards’ catching position: baby-faced backstop Ivan Herrera. Hailing from Panama, Panama, the pudgy 5-foot-11, 220-pound prospect consistently put together impressive showing after impressive showing since his debut in 2017 – at least until 2021 rolled around. He batted .335/.425/.441 in 2017, slugged .336/.415/.483 the following season, and hit .284/.374/.405 in 2019. Last season he spent the year toiling away in the minors’ toughest level: Class AA. In 98 games with Springfield Herrera hit a respectable .231/.346/.408 with 13 doubles and 17 homeruns. His overall production topped the league average threshold by 4%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s a solid possibility that Herrera develops into a 50-grade hit tool with 20-homerun thump with a solid enough glove to stay behind the dish.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in AA with one organization (min. 400PA): 100 to 110 wRC+, a strikeout rate between 20% and 23%, and a walk rate of at least 12% Those four hitters: Trent Grisham, Delino DeShields Jr., Lucius Fox, and Ivan Herrera.
Herrera showed some pretty impressive batted ball data last season, according to FanGraphs. His average exit velocity was an average-ish 87 mph but his peak exit velocity was 110 mph, tied for the 19th highest mark. After a bit of an adjustment period, Herrera finished the year on a high note, slugging .256/.335/.518 over his final 43 games with Springfield. He’s tracking to be a .250/.340/.450-type hitter with average-ish defense.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Michael McGreevy, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: A two-way star for San Clemente during his prep years, McGreevy had a couple interesting colleges pursuing him, including: UC Irvine, Nevada, and Oregon. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound right-hander opted to attend UC Santa Barbara, whose notable alums include 2015 former fourth overall pick Dillon Tate, Michael Young, Barry Zito, and – of course – Shane Bieber. McGreevy spent his freshman year pitching exclusively out of the bullpen for the Gauchos, throwing 60.1 innings with 53 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a tidy 1.94 ERA. He spent the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign transitioning into the club’s rotation, making four dominant starts en route to totaling a 1.32 ERA with 26 punch outs and seven walks. And the beach loving righty carried that momentum into an incredible junior season: 101.2 innings, 115 strikeouts, just 11 free passes, a 2.92 ERA, and a 9-2 win-loss record. St. Louis selected him in the opening round last July, 18th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.75 million. McGreevy tossed 7.2 innings during his professional debut, allowing a whopping 14 hits while fanning seven and walking a pair.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up on the young righty:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, only three Big West hurlers have averaged at least 10 strikeouts and fewer than 2.0 walks per nine innings in a season (min. 75 IP): Connor Seabold, Ben Brecht, and – my all-time favorite college player – Clayton Andrews.
McGreevy attacks hitters with a 92-93-mph fastball that will peak a couple ticks above that at times, an above-average upper 12-6 curveball, an above-average 83 mph slider, and a workable changeup. He’s not overpowering, but gets the most out of his talent and arsenal due to his superb feel for the strike zone. He’s a safe, low risk college arm that should move quickly through the minor leagues. He’s been linked to the Indians in recent mock drafts, and that seems like a logical choice given their propensity for developing similar arms.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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6. Alec Burleson, LF/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: It feels like every year a Cardinals minor leaguer – or three – explodes and rockets up prospect lists. Enter: Alec Burleson, a second round pick in 2020 out of East Carolina University. A stout, power-packed bat throughout his collegiate career, Burleson left the American Athletic Conference squad as a career .341/.387/.496 hitter. Less than a year later the 6-foot-2, 212-pound corner outfielder was digging in against Triple-A pitching. Burleson ripped through High-A to start the year, batting .286/.367/.595 in 11 games. He continued to produce against the minors’ toughest challenge, AA, for 63 games, slugging .288/.333/.488. And he finally slowed during his 45-game stint with Memphis in AAA. In total, the former Division I bomber hit .270/.329/.454 with 18 doubles, 22 homeruns, and three stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league mark by 8%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 250 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a strikeout rate between 20% and 22%, and a sub-7% walk rate. Those two hitters: Orlando Mercado and – of course – Alec Burleson.
Above-average power that likely tops out with 25 or so homeruns in a full season. Burleson achieved a rather amazing feat during his sprint through St. Louis’ farm system last season: his strikeout rate declined at every stop along the way. No massive platoon splits. Burleson is a typical Cardinals draft pick: he’s going to pop up in the big leagues, without much fanfare, and hit .270/.335/.450 in 400 plate appearances a season for eight years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Masyn Winn, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 35/40 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Kingwood High School is familiar with high-priced amateur talent: the Texas-based school has produced two first round picks, and a pair of second rounders as well. And, on a side note, the school can claim four big leaguers among their alumnus, though they’ve all totaled a negative Wins Above Replacement: Micah Bowie, Jeff Austin, Ryan Jorgensen, and Lance Pendleton. Two years ago St. Louis selected Kingwood shortstop Masyn Winn in the second round, 54th overall, and signed him to a hefty $2.1 million deal. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound shortstop began the year on a high note, hitting .262/.370/.388 as a 19-year-old in Low-A. The front office bumped him up to High-A at the end of July and his production cratered; he hit a lowly .209/.240/.304.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only a pair of 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Low-A in a season with one organization (min. 275 PA): 107 to 117 wRC+, a walk rate north of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 19% and 22%. Those two hitters: All-Star and Silver Slugger award winner Eric Hosmer and, of course, Masyn Winn.
Winn is not Hosmer, though the latter has developed into more of a slap-hitting middle infielder at this point in his career. Winn’s season was a tale of two stories: he was a patient, top-of-the-line type table-setter in Low-A and an OBP-deficient, swing-at-everything hack in High-A. A lot of Winn’s value is tied up into two different facets: (1) his patient approach at the plate and (2) his plus speed on the base paths. He’s never going to win a gold glove, but he should have no problem manning the position. Winn also flashed an upper-90s heater as an amateur, though he tossed just one inning as pro last year.
Ceiling: 1.5- win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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8. Malcom Nunez, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/55 | 45 | 50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: A high profile signing out of La Habana, Cuba several years ago, Nunez, who received a hefty $300,000 bonus, looked the part of a big, stocky middle-of-the-lineup thumper during his debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018. In 44 games that summer the 5-foot-11, 205-pound third baseman slugged a scorching .415/.497/.774 with 16 doubles, two triples, and 13 homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 138%. And then the bottom fell out. The front office bumped the Cuban import straight up to Peoria the following season, but after batting a paltry .183/.247/.197 in 21 games, he was demoted down to the Appalachian League – where he batted a mediocre .254/.336/.385. Like Lloyd Christmas, Nunez “totally redeemed” himself in 2021. Splitting time between Peoria, now St. Louis’s High-A affiliate, and Springfield, he hit an aggregate .268/.339/.404 with 15 doubles, two triples, and nine homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 3%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s a ton of talent here, strictly as a potential power-hitter, but he looked far rawer than what I thought he was a year ago. I’d put Nunez’s ceiling in the Jesus Aguilar territory.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 200 PA): an 85 to 95 wRC+, a strikeout rate between 19% and 21%, and a single-digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Tommy Joseph, Leody Taveras, and Malcom Nunez.
- Tommy Joseph was a league average hitter during his two-year big league career, belting out 43 homeruns in 249 games. And Taveras, a speedy center fielder, was widely recognized – across the board – as a Top 100 prospect for multiple seasons.
I still think Nunez develops into a Jesus Aguilar-type of hitter, someone capable of putting together a .270/.340/.470 line. Per FanGraphs’ data, Nunez’s average exit velocity was a stellar 90 mph last season. He shows an average glove at third base, though I think he eventually slides across the diamond. There’s the potential to put together one of those patented Cardinals prospects seasons and shoot up the prospect charts.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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9. Tink Hence, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55/60 | 50/55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Watson Chapel High School has been home to three draft picks since 2018: Gionti Turner, who got $125,000 from the Guardians as a 27th round pick in 2018; Kaleb Hill, who was chosen 12 rounds later by Cleveland; and – of course – Tink Hence. The 63rd overall pick in 2020, Hence agreed to join the St. Louis organization for a slightly above-slot $1,115,000. Hence wouldn’t make his debut until last season. In eight brief appearances with the organization’s Florida Complex League affiliate, the 6-foot-1, 175-pound right-hander struck out 14 and walked a trio in eight innings of work. He compiled a 9.00 ERA along the way.
Scouting Report: One of the more fascinating facts about Hence’s debut in the rookie league: the wiry right-hander struck out six and didn’t allow a hit or walk over his first three appearances, and through his first four appearances he sported a 9-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s skinny and needs to pack on some serious poundage, but he’s shown an intriguing four-pitch mix prior to his debut. Very, very loose arm. There’s some potential upside as a backend starter.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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10. Ryan Holgate, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Originally taken by the Minnesota Twins in the late, late rounds of the 2018 draft coming out of Davis High School in 2018, Holgate, a well-built outfielder, put together a solid showing at the University of Arizona as a true freshman the following the season. Appearing in 53 games with the Wildcats, the 6-foot-2, 193-pound slugger batted .240/.378/.437 with eight doubles, two triples, and seven homeruns. Holgate’s production took a noticeable leap forward during the ensuing summer in the Northwoods League as he hit .297/.392/.554 for the La Crosse Loggers. The native Californian, like so many others, got off to a torrid start during the 2020 season, slugging a scorching .377/.459/.547 in 15 contests before the season came to a premature COVID-induced end. Last season, Holgate, appearing in a career best 63 games for the Pac12 squad, developed into one of college baseball’s most explosive bats: he mashed .351/.421/.576 with career highs in doubles (20), homeruns (11) and stolen bases (3). The Cardinals drafted him in the second round, 70th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $875,000, slightly below-slot. Unfortunately, the corner outfielder hit a putrid .193/.279/.289 in 30 games with the Palm Beach Cardinals in Low-A.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of PAC12 hitters to hit at least .340/.410/.560 with double digit homeruns and a single-digit walk rate in a season (min. 275 PA): J.J. Matijevic, a 2017 second round pick out of Arizona, and Garrett Mitchell, a first round selection out of UCLA in 2020.
Gobs of raw power that he was just beginning to tap into in game-play in 2021, Holgate should have no problem slugging 20 to 25 longballs in a full professional season. Not the most patient of hitters, Holgate may battle some swing-and-miss tendencies as he approaches the middle rungs of the minor leagues. Holgate looks like a potential Ryan Ludwick-type bat, capable of hitting .260/.320/.440.”
Ceiling: 1.5- win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
