Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Paul Skenes
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Who’s the best college pitching prospect in history? Certainly Stephen Strasburg belongs on the list, as does Mark Prior, Ben McDonald, David Price, Gerrit Cole, Kris Benson, Andy Benes, and Tim Belcher too. When Strasburg mania hit it was unlike anything seen before. His college games became an attraction. University of Southern California ace Mark Prior was deemed the greatest pitching prospect in history with nearly perfect mechanics during his time. McDonald, Price, Cole, Benson, Benes, and Belcher were all going to lead an MLB franchise to the promise land. Louisiana State University ace Paul Skenes – thanks in large part to social media – likely surpassed everyone on his way to the best pitching prospect. Or at least an argument could be made that he was the best collegiate pitching prospect in history. A product of El Toro High School, home to Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, and Austin Romine, Skenes began his began his collegiate career for the Air Force Falcons. Used as the club’s closer, the burly, broad-shouldered right-hander saved 11 games with a 30-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.2 innings of work. Skenes split the ensuing summer with the Wareham Gatemen in the vaunted Cape Cod League (8.0 IP, 11 strikeouts, 5 BB) and with Team USA (5IP, 4K, 4BB). The 6-foot-6, 235-pound righty moved into the Falcons’ rotation in 2022. And he blossomed. Making 15 starts, Skenes tossed 85.2 innings with 96 punch outs and 30 free passes to go along with a 10-3 win-loss record and a 2.73 ERA. And, once again, he appeared in a handful of games for Team USA, recording a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four innings of work. Oh, yeah, he batted .410/.486/.697 with 21 doubles and 11 homeruns as a freshman and followed that up with a .314/.412/.634 showing during his final season at Air Force. Midsummer two years ago he announced that he would be transferring to LSU. The rest, as they say, is history. Skenes sported a 1.69 ERA while averaging an impossible 15.3 strikeouts to just 1.5 walks per nine innings across 19 starts and 122.2 innings of work. Pittsburgh selected the LSU ace atop the draft last season, signing him to a deal worth $9.2 million. Skenes hurled 6.2 innings during his highly anticipated debut, fanning 10 and walking a pair.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, there have been 165 instances in which a SEC pitcher eclipsed the 90-inning threshold. Only three hurlers averaged 14 or more strikeouts per nine innings: Jack Leiter, Ethan Small, and – of course – Paul Skenes. Only one of those pitchers posted a sub-2.0 BB/9 rate: Paul Skenes. Skenes, the former Air Force transfer, owns the highest strikeout total in the SEC in 2023.
Even in a high octane, jet fuel throwing era where fastball velocity is exploding, Skenes’ heater is a grade above, both in terms of velocity. His fastball will sit in the mid- to upper-90s and reach well above 100 mph on occasion – including touching 101 on the 124th pitch of the game in early June. But that’s only a part of story. The big righty features – arguably – the best slider in the draft class and a plus, power changeup. The genuine ace material brewing here. Skenes possesses the size, repertoire, and command to front a big league rotation. He’s far superior to recent top college pitching prospects like Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Max Meyer, and Nick Lodolo. He’s going to be star – as long as he can stay healthy.”
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Termarr Johnson, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 50/55 | 40 | 60 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Since the inception of the modern MLB draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates have owned a Top 5 selection 14 different times, a rather remarkable feat if you truly think about. With those 14 picks, the franchise has selected a collegiate player 10 different times (with mixed results). Using basic math, that means four of those picks were used on high schoolers: Kurt Miller, Jameson Taillon, Mark Merchant, and – of course – Termarr Johnson, the highest drafted teenage infielder in the organization’s history. Nabbed with the fourth overall pick out of Mays High School two years ago, Johnson was one of the most dynamic bats available in the draft class, showing a smooth left-handed swing, surprising pop, and a potential plus-plus hit tool. After a brief jaunt between the Complex League and Low-A during his debut, the 5-foot-8, 175-pound second baseman split time between Bradenton and Greensboro in 2023. Appearing in 105 games (75 with Bradenton; 30 with Greensboro), Johnson batted .244/.422/.438 with 12 doubles, one triple, 18 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (in 12 total attempts). His production, as measured by FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 41%.
Snippet from The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s tabbed to slide over to second base. There’s a little bit of Joe Morgan here, though minus the speed.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters posted a 135 to 145 wRC+ with a 25.% to 27.5% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): Zac Veen, Cameron Maybin, Ryan McMahon, and – of course – Termarr Johnson.
A few things to note:
#1. Johnson’s walk rate, 21.8%, was significantly higher than the runner up (Zac Veen, 13.4%).
#2. Throughout their respective big league careers, Maybin and McMahon were / are below-average bats, owning wRC+ marks of 93 and 88, respectively.
A shortstop in high school, it was all but written in stone that Johnson would slide over to the right side of second base as soon as he turned pro. That’s exactly what happened. And the results were surprisingly good, like potential Gold Glove winner good. At the plate, the former fourth overall pick shows a lot of pre-pitch movement, starting from a more upright stance before crouching rather significantly during his load. Johnson’s incredibly patient at the plate, almost to a fault, but he displays tremendous pitch recognition, premium bat speed, and thump that belies his 5-foot-8 frame. But here’s the truth: Johnson’s hit tool wasn’t nearly as lethal as everyone expected. That’s not to say he won’t be a dynamic big leaguer, but it may come in a different package (defense, on-base percentage).
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Jared Jones, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: While the jury’s final verdict on Nick Gonzales is still pending, let’s just say the evidence is stacking up against him in terms of not becoming a viable big league starter. Their second first rounder, Carmen Mlodzinski has carved out a nice role as a bullpen arm. If there is going to be an impact player from their 2020 COVID draft class, it may be their third pick Jared Jones. Taken in the second round, 31st overall, Jones looked impressive – erratic at times, but impressive nonetheless – during his debut in Low-A in 2021, averaging 14 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings spread across 18 games. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound righty would spend the following year twirling games for Greensboro in the South Atlantic, showing an improved feel for the strike zone (3.7 BB/9) while still missing plenty of bats (10.4 K/9). Last season, the former second round selection split his time between Altoona and Indianapolis, the organization’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, throwing 126.1 innings, recording 146 punch outs against just 50 free passes. He tallied an aggregate 3.85 ERA and a nearly identical 3.77 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s mid-rotation caliber potential here. And Jones remains one of the more underrated hurlers in the minor leagues. He could be one of the larger breakout hurlers in 2023 – even as he moves into Double-A.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers posted a 27.5% to 29.5% strikeout percentage with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 75 IP): Jose Berrios, Trevor Bauer, and – of course – Jared Jones. For those counting at home: there are three All-Star appearances, one ERA title, one Cy Young Award, and nearly 35 Wins Above Replacement between Berrios and Bauer. Jones’ walk percentage, 9.71%, was nearly identical to Bauer’s (10.09%).
The Dodgers or Rays or Guardians are usually associated with a deep, bountiful collection of minor league arms. But the Pirates can rival any organization in pitching prospects at this point. Case in point: Jared Jones. If the former second rounder was in Los Angeles’s or Tampa Bay’s system, he’d be a consensus Top 15 prospect – without question – but he’s not. Jones features a mid-90s fastball that touches as high as 98 mph early in his starts. He’ll complement the borderline plus-plus pitch with an above-average, low-80s deuce, a hard-tilting upper-80s slider, which is a genuine swing-and-miss offering, and a rare – but sneakily good – changeup. Throw in average command and Jones should have no issue carving out a role as a mid-rotation arm, maybe even squeezing in an All-Star game appearance or two.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. Bubba Chandler, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: After grabbing Louisville star backstop Henry Davis with the top pick in the 2021 draft, the Pirates’ brass used their next four selections on high school phenoms: southpaw Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White, Bubba Chandler, and Owen Kellington, with the first three ranking among the club’s best minor leagues. But it was Chandler, the club’s lone third round pick, who received the largest bonus among all the teenagers, agreeing to join the rebuilding organization for $3 million. A potential two-way prospect, the Pirates let Chandler spend his first full season in the minor leagues on both sides of the ball, though it was immediately clear as to where his future would be. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound DH / right-hander batted a putrid .196/.331/.382 in 124 plate appearances, but managed a 60-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41.1 innings between the Complex League and Bradenton. Last season, Chandler nixed the hitting and focused solely on his work on the mound. And he was borderline brilliant at times. Making 24 starts with Greensboro and one final appearance with Altoona, the former third rounder averaged 10.4 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings. He tallied an aggregate 4.54 ERA and a slightly higher 4.78 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Hitting a baseball is the hardest task in any professional sport – period. Hitting a baseball while developing your craft as a pitcher is nearly impossible. Bubba Chandler is attempting to do it, and it’s crystal clear just how impossible the feat actually is. The command is a 30, but when he’s on he’s nearly unhittable. It’s almost unfair. The Pirates may continue to give him at bats, but at some point he’s going to have to focus solely on pitching or he’s going to turn into the great “What If?”.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 20-year-old arms posted a 24.5% to 26.5% strikeout percentage with a 10% to 12% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 75 IP): Omar Poveda, who petered out in Triple-A, and Bubba Chandler.
Committed to Clemson as a football and baseball player, Chandler owns a dynamic four-pitch arsenal: borderline plus-plus fastball sitting in the 95- to 97-mph range, above-average mid-80s curveball, a plus slider that hovers works around 90- to 92-mph, and an average upper-80s changeup. It’s not easy velocity, but it’s premium for a starter. A fast, efficient worker, Chandler’s feel for the strike zone wavers at points, but the athleticism and continued focus on pitching helps project it to climb into average territory. He’s reminiscent of Shane Baz, though Chandler may have better overall stuff. Another strong showing in 2024 may position him (A) to move among the Top 25 prospects in the game and (B) for a late season cameo in Pittsburgh.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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5. Tom Harrington, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: After selecting May High School phenom Termarr Johnson with the fourth overall pick two years ago, Ben Cherington & Co. looked towards the collegiate ranks for their second pick in the opening round, opting for Campbell University ace Tom Harrington with the 36th overall pick. Harrington was able to carry his dominant performance in the Big South Conference in 2022 into a similar debut performance with Bradenton and Greensboro. He would make 26 starts between the club’s Low-A and High-A affiliates, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound righty averaged 10.3 strikeouts and just 2.9 walks per nine innings to go along with an aggregate 3.53 ERA and a 4.00 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Harrington doesn’t own the biggest of frames, but he’s efficient with his offerings and mechanics. He has the ceiling of a #4-type arm. He could be a very quality pick in the opening of the second round.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 75 IP): 27% to 29% strikeout percentage with a 6.5% to 8.5% walk percentage. Those three arms: Wade Davis, Kris Bubic, and Tom Harrington.
Harrington basically came as advertised: quality arsenal, fills the zone up with plenty of strikes, the likelihood to move quickly, and a safe high-floor outcome. A low- to mid-90s fastball sitting in the 92- to 94-mph range that can touch a tick or two higher when needed, an above-average Frisbee slider (that likely gets termed a sweeper once the metrics come out), and an above-average changeup in the upper 80s. He’ll also mix in a rare CB at times too. Harrington moves like a cat on the mound and may win a Gold Glove at the position. If he can handle the jump up to Double-A well (which I think he will), reaching Pittsburgh by the end of the year isn’t out of the question either.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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6. Anthony Solometo, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: The Pirates have a history going back several decades where they focus in on pitching in the second round of the midsummer draft. Since its inception in 1965, Pittsburgh has owned a total of 68 second round picks; they’ve selected pitching 43 times – or roughly 63% of the time. Thirty-one of those selections happened to come from the high school ranks, though they’ve really only hit on two so far: John Candelaria, distinct member of the Hall of Very Good, and Mitch Keller. And it looks like Jared Jones, maybe Braxton Ashcraft, and Anthony Solometo have a solid chance to develop into viable big league arms, as well. Taken with the club’s second pick in the 2021 draft, 37th overall, the Bishop Eustace Preparatory product look incredibly promising during his limited debut in 2022: he would hurl 47.2 innings, with Bradenton, averaging 9.6 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Last season, the front office took off Solometo’s governor as he logged 110.1 innings between Greensboro and Altoona, posting a dominant 118-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio with an aggregate 3.26 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Didn’t like the arm angle coming out of high school, and I dislike it even more as a professional. It’s brutally long and it’s a crossfire, low three-quarter slinging release. Platoon splits against right-handers are likely going to be a concern in the coming years. And he already struggles getting it in on righties.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, nine 20-year-old arms posted a 22% to 24% strikeout percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 50 IP): Eduardo Rodriguez, Tink Hence, Archie Bradley, Beau Burrows, Jaime Garcia, Manny Banuelos, Martin Perez, Robbie Erlin, Sixto Sanchez, and – of course – Anthony Solometo.
I still don’t like the arm action / angle / release point Solometo deploys, but he’s surpassed a lot of expectations that are – perhaps, unfairly – thrust upon early round teenage phenoms, and he’s done so without any true red flags. The arm action is long and funky and makes it look almost impossible to throw consistent strikes, but – again – he’s done it to this point. I still think big league right-handed bats are going to be able to take the inner half of the plate away from Solometo, but we’ll see. Average low 90s fastball that can kiss the mid-90s a few times each game. Solometo owns an above-average mid-80s slider and an improved changeup. He’s tracking like a backend arm, though his improved strike-throwing ability has pushed him up to league average status. One final note: Solometo walked 21 guys over his 29.2 innings; over his 82.1 innings he issued just 20 walks.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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7. Lonnie White Jr., OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50/60 | 55 | 50 | 45/55 | 50 |
Background: Lonnie White was practically an unknown heading into 2023. Snagged in the second round out of Malvern Preparatory School in 2021, White, who was committed to Penn State to play football, appeared in just nine games in the Complex League that summer, slugging .258/.303/.516 while whiffing in nearly 50% of his plate appearances. The Pirates sent White back down to the stateside rookie league the following year, but he hit the disabled list with elbow woes after just a pair of games. Meaning he entered his third professional season with a total of 40 plate appearances on his résumé. Unsurprisingly, the 6-foot-3, 212-pound centerfielder was sent back to the Complex League at the start of the year. But after slugging .318/.434/.444, the front office finally deemed him ready for full season action. The former second rounder responded with a .259/.395/.488 slash line with Bradenton, belting out 11 doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns to go along with 12 stolen bases. His overall production with Bradenton, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 40%. White owns a career .274/.392/.491 slash line across 72 games.
Scouting Report: One of the tools-iest players in the Pirates’ farm system. White’s one of those guys that just looks good in a baseball uniform. The ball jumps off of his bat, just hinting at his plus in-game power potential. He runs like the wind, though his speed hasn’t resulted in a positive defensive value in centerfield, but he would be a premium gloveman in right. It’s all going to come down to the hit tool. If we can keep it as a 45-grade, White could be an impact player for an organization sorely in need of impact players. If not, well, the minor leagues are littered with athletes that couldn’t hit. Wide range of outcomes here.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2026
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8. Mitch Jebb, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: It’s been a long, long time since Michigan State University developed (A) an early round draft pick and (B) a tangible big leaguer. In both instances the answer is former All-Star lefty Mark Mulder, the second overall pick in 1998. Up until last summer, Mulder was the only Spartan drafted among the first three rounds. Enter: lefty-swinging shortstop Mitch Jebb. A well-decorated, well-touted prospect from Swan Valley High School, Jebb turned in a punchless debut showing in East Lansing during his freshman year: he batted a mediocre .276/.330/.362 with 12 extra-base knocks (10 doubles, two triples) in 43 games. He maintained a similar stat line during the summer with the Kenosha Kingfish (.260/.332/.324). But Jebb returned for his sophomore season a transformed hitter. The then-20-year-old infielder mashed .356/.448/.511 with 10 doubles, three triples, six homeruns, and 20 stolen bases. And – perhaps, surprisingly – he continued to swing a hot stick during his summer with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in the Cape Cod League; he slugged .356/.429/.490 with eight doubles, three triples, two dingers, and 26 stolen bases. Last season, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound lefty-swinging shortstop turned in another strong showing as a junior: he hit .337/.438/.495 with career highs in doubles (15) and triples (seven) to go along with one homerun and 14 stolen bases (in 18 total attempts). Pittsburgh selected the MSU standout in the second round, 42nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,647,500. He batted .297/.382/.398 in 34 games with the Bradenton Marauders.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, there have been 23 instances of a Big 10 hitter posting at least a .310/.410/.480 slash line with more walks than strikeouts in a season (min. 225 PA). The only two players to accomplish the feat twice are big league slugger Kyle Schwarber and – of course – Mitch Jebb.
Jebb owns – perhaps – the most peculiar setup at the plate since, maybe, Julio Franco or Tony Bautista. The Spartan starts with a wide base, twists his torso to almost face the pitcher, and tilts his bat head to rest on his shoulder. Line drive doubles power than won’t run into many long balls in the professional ranks. But he owns phenomenal bat control. His arm strength may push him to the right side of the keystone. The hit tool is going to have to carry him a long way.”
Prior to the draft I had a late second / early third round draft grade on Jebb.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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9. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | N/A | 50 | 50 |
Background: Practically a forgotten about prospect heading into 2023 caused by a mix of a deep collection of talented young arms and Ashcraft’s inability to stay on the bump. As detailed by his profile on MLB Pipeline, the former second rounder hit the surgeon’s table in 2019 to fix a non-throwing shoulder injury. Two years later, once minor league baseball returned from its COVID-induced hiatus, Ashcraft’s campaign was curtailed after 10 starts in High-A. The cause: a wobbly elbow that – once again – forced him under the knife (Tommy John surgery). The 6-foot-5, 195-pound righty would miss all of 2022 recovering. Last season, the Robinson High School product nearly tied a career best in innings pitched while averaging a dominant 10.8 strikeouts and just 1.9 walks per nine innings during his brief stints with Bradenton, Greensboro, and Altoona. He finished the year with a 2.39 ERA and a 2.85 FIP.
Scouting Report: To put it bluntly: Braxton Ashcraft, the 2023 version, looked like the prototypical Los Angeles Dodgers pitching prospect. And that’s a good thing. Ashcraft uncorked a mid-90s, plus fastball sitting in the 94- to 97-mph range with good life (even down in the zone). The former second rounder (all the way back in 2018) owns a pair of strong breaking balls: a plus low 80s curveball that sometimes morphs into a sweeper and an above-average, late-moving slider. Reports indicate he mixes in a fringy changeup, though I didn’t see him throw it. Beyond a big league quality repertoire, Ashcraft’s feel for the strike zone was extraordinary – especially for a pitcher that’s missed as much time as he has. There are still (plenty of) questions about his ability to hold up over the course of a full season – he’s thrown less than 54 innings every year – but the potential to develop into a #4-type arm is present. He just doesn’t look like a workhorse at this point in his career.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Zander Mueth, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Zander Mueth has the distinction of being the only high school player the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted among their first 15 picks last summer. Likewise, the big right-hander also has the distinction of earning the only above-slot signing bonus handed out to their first 11 picks. He signed with the ball club for $1.8 million, roughly $700,000 above the recommended dollar amount. Brilliant during his senior season at Belleville East High School – home to former big league right-hander Randy Wells, who finished sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2009 – Mueth punched out 62 batters in only 37 innings with the Lancers. Roughly 56% of the outs he recorded came via the whiff. Prior to joining the NL Central Division organization, the 6-foot-6, 205-pound righty was committed to play at the University of Mississippi.
Scouting Report: With a hair style straight out of That 70’s Show, Mueth attacks hitters with a low spinning, sinking fastball that regularly sits in the low 90s. His long limbs and frame add some deception and length as well. He complements the above-average offering with a pair of equally strong secondary pitches: a very good, concrete-laden changeup that shows significant promise as a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch and low 80s slider. Mueth isn’t your typical spin-rate monster, hard-throwing, gigantically built prep right-hander. But he shows a lot of savvy and throws nothing straight.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
