Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Andrew Painter, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 50 | 60 | 55/60 | 60 | 60 |
Background: The 2022 season was borderline magical for Andrew Painter. After the ball club made him the 13th overall pick in 2021, Painter put on an absolute show of dominance during his abbreviated debut in the Complex League as he punched out 12 batters without issuing a free pass over six innings of work. And, well, that proved to be just the start for the 6-foot-7, 215-pound right-hander. Painter began the year off in the Florida State League, but that stint lasted nine starts before moving on up to High-A. The competition proved to be of little concern for the hard-throwing, budding ace and he made mincemeat of anything that stood in his way. So, once again, the front office bumped their prized arm up to the fires of Double-A, the true test for every prospect, and he was remarkable for five games. Painter finished his first full professional year with 103.2 innings, averaging 13.5 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine innings to go along with a dazzling 1.56 ERA. But, unfortunately, that’s the last time Painter’s toed a rubber. A UCL injury last spring knocked him out of action and eventually forced him under the knife for Tommy John surgery in late July. Assuming there are no setbacks, Painter will likely make it back at the end of 2024.
Snippet from The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook: It’s almost sacrilege to say it, but he’s reminiscent of young Justin Verlander in some ways.
Scouting Report: Without any new data or game tape to report on, here’s his scouting report heading into last season:
“Painter has a lot of elite traits:
#1. Plus-plus fastball, sitting easily in the mid- to upper-90s.
#2. Command of his plus-plus fastball.
#3. A wickedly unfair low- to mid-80s slider.
#4. Command of his wickedly unfair slider.
#5. A tremendously underrated changeup.
#6. Command of his tremendously underrated changeup.
#7. A willingness to mix speeds and throw his offspeed offerings in any count.
#8. Athletic with a quick pickoff move.
With a little more seasoning on his changeup, Painter will – unquestionably – own three plus offerings backed up by a rare, solid-average curveball that could climb into above-average territory if he focused more heavily on it. Painter’s two breaking balls are especially effective due to their different movements – the slider is more of horizontally darting / sweeping pitch and his curveball is more traditional with downward bite. There’s a lot of luck that goes into navigating through the injury nexus, but Painter has the makings of a true, genuine ace.”
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025
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2. Mick Abel, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 40 | 50 |
Background: The 2020 draft is going to provide an interesting case study at some point in the future – both near and far. COVID wrecked the majority of amateur seasons, so front offices were left with small sample sizes, previous year’s data and reports, and a whole lot of projections. It’s not surprising that so many early picks have failed to live up to their lofty expectations, guys like Asa Lacy, Austin Martin, Nick Gonzales, and Robert Hassell among many others. But here’s another two interesting points: #1 the first high school pitcher taken, Mick Abel, lasted until the 15th overall pick, and #2 the Phillies seemingly hit on the riskiest type of pick (teenage arm) in an incredibly risky situation (COVID-limited draft class). Abel spent his debut season in Low-A in 2021 and followed that up by splitting time between Jersey Shore and Reading the next season. Last year, the 6-foot-5, 190-pound right-hander made 22 starts back with Reading before finishing up with a one-game cameo in Lehigh Valley. He finished the year with a career high 113.1 innings of work, posting a 132-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 4.13 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Perhaps unfairly, but the dynamic duo of Andrew Painter and Mick Abel will forever be linked and compared to each other. Taken in the opening round in back-to-back drafts, each talented hurler features similar repertoires: plus-plus fastball, plus slider, above-average changeup, and a rare curveball (I did not witness Abel’s reported deuce). The big differentiator, though, is Abel’s wavering command / control.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers posted a 26% to 29% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage of at least 12% with one club in any Double-A league (min. 100 IP): Genesis Cabrera, Jesse Biddle, and Mick Abel. It’s worth nothing that Cabrera and Biddle cracked big league pitching staffs as full-time relievers, not starting pitchers.
Abel’s fastball has been touted as one of the better ones in the minor leagues, having a history of approaching triple-digits at various points. But his last start of the year, a 4.2-inning affair with Lehigh Valley, Baseball Savant had his fastball peaking a smidgeon below 96 mph, sitting most of the time in the 93- to 94-mph range. The site, by the way, called his curveball and slider a slider and cutter. Either way, both are very solid. He’ll also mix in a surprising solid changeup with some dive. As in years past, Abel’s control – not command – will be the differentiator between successful big league starting pitcher and not. Physically, he’s athletic and lean enough to project at least 45 control with 40 command. And he still has plenty of youth on his side as well.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Justin Crawford, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 35 | 70 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: I mentioned this in last year’s Prospect Digest Handbook, but Carl Crawford, Justin’s old man, was pretty far along on what could have been a Hall of Fame career, but as soon as Father Time rolled the clock to 29 years, the All-Star outfielder was practically done. Sure, he spent another six years in the big leagues, but he tallied just 3.5 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball Reference). Crawford’s son, Justin, is off to one helluva start to his professional career as well. Taken with the 17th overall pick two summers ago, Crawford, who signed on the dotted line for nearly $3.9 million, split time between Clearwater and Jersey Shore in 2023. He batted an aggregate .332/.392/.467 with 22 doubles, eight triples, three homeruns, and 47 stolen bases (in 55 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production line topped the league average threshold by an impressive 34%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He doesn’t have a ton of present power, but could develop into a 15-home run perennial threat. There’s some work to do be done, but he has the potential to develop into an above-average big leaguer.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Low-A, where he spent 69 of his 87 games last season, consider the following:
Since 2006, only a pair of 19-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): 133 to 143 wRC+, a 16% to 18% whiff rate, and a 7.5% to 9.5% walk rate. Those two hitters: Chance Sisco and Justin Crawford.
Sisco, by the way, was once a perennial Top 100 prospect within the Orioles’ system but hasn’t quite figured it out at the big league level, batting .197/.317/.337 in 196 games.
An aggressive hitter with strong bat control, Crawford possess impressive bat speed but lacks the strength to knock it out of the ballpark. He has a pretty distinct setup and stance at the plate: wide base with all of his weight on his back foot and his left elbow held high and parallel to the ground. His standout tool, of course, is plus-plus speed with helps boost his batting averages with infield hits. He could be an elite base stealer in the coming years. But the speed hasn’t translated directly into outfield defensive value yet. Whether he can consistently drive the ball is another question. Final note: Crawford shows an eager willingness to expand the zone, particularly on close offspeed pitches. His bat control and approach allows him to make contact – not quality contact, just contact. Crawford’s the type that can still carve out a starting gig even if the bat takes a step or two backwards.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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4. Aidan Miller, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A longtime member of Team USA through a variety of different teams. Miller, a 6-foot-2, 205-pound third baseman, played on the 2016 12U squad, batting .400/.400/1.000 in seven games and he managed to throw a pair of innings on the mound – though the results were less than desirable (17.50 ERA, 2K, 5BB, and 2 dingers allowed). Three years later, the young Florida native was a key member on the 15U National Team, batting .263/.517/.316 with a quartet of RBIs in nine games. And, finally, he completed his trio of Team USA stints with his best showing: starring for the 18U team, Miller mashed .478/.594/1.000 with a pair of homeruns, 8 RBIs, and 12 runs scored. As for his high school career, Miller, like all the other members of the 2023 class, had his freshman season prematurely curtailed due to COVID. But he made up for lost time during his breakout sophomore campaign, slugging .402/.527/.770. And he came close to repeating that line during his junior year as well: .403/.552/.583. Unfortunately for the burgeoning slugger, a broken hamate bone forced him out for the majority of his senior year. Philly selected Miller in the first round, 27th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3.1 million. He split time between the Complex League and Clearwater during his debut, batting .303/.425/.379.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Classic right-handed power-hitting swing. Natural loft, plus raw power, good bat speed – though the swing can get long at times. Surprisingly patient approach with a solid feel for the strike zone. But make no mistake about it: the power is his true calling card. He could be a great value selection near the 20th pick in the first round. There’s some added potential given the lost development time due to injury.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2027
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5. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
| FB | SW/SL | SF | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Signed out of Hualien, Taiwan for $350,000 midway through January last year. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound right-hander opened up a ton of eyes during his affiliated debut a few months later. Used primarily as a multi-inning reliever, Pan dominated the Low-A competition across 23 appearances. He tallied a dominant 81-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 57.2 innings of work. Philly bumped the hard-throwing youngster up to Jersey Shore for half-a-dozen more appearances before the season ended, striking out seven and walking five in six final innings. Pan finished his first professional season with 63.2 innings of work, averaging 12.4 strikeouts and just 3.4 walks per nine innings. He totaled a 3.97 ERA and a sparkling 2.97 FIP.
Scouting Report: I’ve found my new favorite minor league arm. It took about three total pitches to realize that the Phillies may have pulled a fast one over on every other organization last January. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound righty unfurls a litany of pitches according to the BlueClaws’ broadcast team, but the front office has asked him to dial it back to just three offerings: a plus fastball that sits 94- to 96-mph and touches a tick of two above that; a sweeper / slider breaking ball that flashes flash, and a dandy of a splitter – his third plus offering. Currently, there’s average command, but he generally lives closely around the zone to project an uptick with some additional seasoning. There is – without a doubt – a mid-rotation caliber ceiling here if the Phillies stretch him out. He could be one of the bigger breakout candidates in 2024. Remember the name: Wen Hui Pan. I could very easily see Pan being a target from other teams during trade talks.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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6. Orion Kerkering, RHP
| FB | SW | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 80 | 60 | 50 |
Background: An old pitching coach of mine used to say – quite a bit, actually – that it didn’t matter where you played, if you were good enough they’d find you. Well, the Phillies certainly found a good in the fifth round out of the University of South Florida. The 152nd player taken two years ago, Kerkering had an up-and-down junior campaign with the Bulls, tallying an ERA hovering near 6.00 but posting a 91-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 67.2 innings of work. The 6-foot-2, 204-pound right-hander would throw just seven low level innings during his pro debut that summer, posting a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then 2023 happened. And no one could have predicted Kerkering’s meteoric rise. The former USF starter ripped off nine scoreless appearances in Low-A, posted a 27-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20.1 innings in High-A, tallied a 2.05 ERA in 21 games with Reading, and pitched a scoreless frame with Lehigh Valley. Philadelphia called him up in late September and he fanned six in only three innings of work. And then the big league club kept him on the Playoff Roster, going from the Wild Card round all the way up to NLCS.
Scouting Report: It doesn’t take long – a pitch, maybe two – to see why Orion Kerkering rocketed through the minor leagues as quickly and dominantly as he has. In fact, it can be summed up in two interconnected points: #1 plus-plus sweeper and #2 command of his plus-plus sweeper (which is borderline elite). But if you wanted to extend it out to a third point: #3 upper 90s, explosive-laden fastball. Kerkering’s sweeper is so good (how good is it?!?) that he threw it 51 times of the 60 total pitches he tossed in the regular season with Philly. Sergio Romo made over $40 million across 15 seasons by throwing his slider / sweeper more often than not. Kerkering could be like that – just better.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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7. Griff McGarry, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 30 | 50 |
Background: Griff McGarry’s biggest performance of his life, a stellar seven-plus inning no-hit start against eventual College World Series winner Mississippi State, showed what he was capable of doing when he can consistently throw strikes. See, McGarry may possess an elite arsenal, but he was terrible during his career at the University of Virginia. He would leave the ACC powerhouse with 131 walks in just 134 innings of work. But since the Phillies took a fifth round gamble on him in 2021, McGarry’s been able to hone in the strike zone with improved – albeit still not great – frequency. Two years ago, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound right-hander averaged 13.4 punch outs and 5.5 walks per nine innings across stints with Jersey Shore, Reading, and Lehigh Valley. Last season, the firebolt-slinging McGarry was limited to just 60.0 innings of work, posting an 81-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio (all but one inning coming between Reading and Lehigh Valley).
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: And, again, if he had 45-grade command he’s be a legitimate #3-type starting pitcher. Philadelphia had him working in short relief late the year – perhaps as an effort to get him ready for a potential stretch run. He’s likely headed for some type of relief career, but I’d still run him out every fifth day for at least the next two years.
Scouting Report: If McGarry doesn’t possess the single best repertoire among all minor leaguers, he’s certainly among the very few in the discussion. Explosive, plus-plus fastball that can take over games. Plus curveball. Plus slider. Plus cutter, which actually may his best overall pitch. And an above-average changeup. Quite frankly, it’s the arsenal of legends. But the problem, of course, is whether he can consistently throw strikes. When he’s on, he’s unhittable. He’s now entering his age-25 season and the Phillies’ contending window is now, so he’s not likely going to get a lengthy look in the club’s rotation barring a massive string of injuries. 45-grade command pushes him to #3 status. 50-grade makes him a borderline bonafide ace.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate toHigh
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Bryan Rincon, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/40 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 45 |
Background: The Phillies added quite a bit of depth to their farm system thanks to their 2022 draft class: Justin Crawford (1st round), Gabriel Rincones (3rd), Alex McFarlane (4th), Orion Kerkering (5th), Emaarion Byrd (11th), and – finally – Bryan Rincon (14th). Signed for $125,000 as the 422nd overall player taken that summer, the Shaler Area High School product looked underwhelming during his debut in the Complex League later that summer, hitting a lowly .177/.317/.412 in 12 games. Last season, the 5-foot-10, 185-pound switch-hitting shortstop opened the year up with Clearwater, batting .228/.369/.370 in 81 games, and finished it with a .258/.364/.323 slash line in 187 games with Jersey Shore. He finished the year with an aggregate .234/.368/.361 mark with 17 doubles, one triple, eight homers, and 27 stolen bases (in 41 attempts). His production topped league average mark by 7%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only a pair of 19-year-old hitters posted a 105 to 115 wRC+ mark with a 17% to 19% strikeout rate and a walk rate north of 15% with one club in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): Leonardo Bernal and Bryan Rincon.
A plus defender at a premium position, Rincon’s defense alone may be enough to push him towards a utility gig in the big leagues. Outside of the leatherwork, though, he’s a complete project. The hit tool is a 30 – not because he doesn’t make enough contact, but because of the quality of contact. Good bat speed, but he just doesn’t show a strong feel for the barrel. He has average power and above-average speed (but he needs some refinement on the base paths). As it stands now, because the D is exceptionally strong, Rincon could be a no-hit, all-glove low end starter. Rincon has some real Nick Ahmed vibes going on.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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9. Alex McFarlane, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | 60 | 55 | 30/35 | 45 |
Background: Miami has always been a hotbed of baseball talent over the years, producing the likes of Ryan Braun, Greg Vaughn, Charles Johnson, Yasmani Grandal, and – of course – Pat Burrell, whom the Phillies selected atop the 1998 MLB Draft. Surprisingly, though, Philadelphia hasn’t dipped into the Hurricanes’ well frequently this century, nabbing only Harold Martinez in the second round of the 2011 draft and taking a fourth round flier on right-hander Alex McFarlane eleven years later. Blessed with a dynamic fastball / slider combo, McFarlane spent the majority of his collegiate career stowed away in the Hurricanes’ bullpen, making 37 relief appearances and just 12 starts in three years. Since entering pro ball, the Phillies have eyed McFarlane’s potential as a starting pitcher. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righty made 16 starts with the Clearwater Threshers last season, fanning 69 (12.3 K/9) and walking 38 (6.8 BB/9) in 50.1 innings of work. He finished the year with 5.72 ERA, 4.78 FIP, and a 4.47 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Philly has a tendency to take mid-round gambles on projectable, albeit raw JuCo or older hurlers, and McFarlane is the latest. There’s definite starting caliber potential here with two plus pitches (fastball and a mid-80s wipeout slider) and a third offering that’s incredibly promising (an upper 80s, fading / diving changeup). It’s going to come down to his ability to throw strikes.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage between 28% to 31% and a walk percentage of at least 16% with one club in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Noah Dean, Jonathan Teaney, Salvador Montano, Jared Johnson, and – of course – Alex McFarlane.
Simply put: McFarlane owns as much talent in his arm as anyone in the system not named Andrew Painter. The wiry right-hander is equipped with a plus-plus fastball that was sitting in the 98 mph to 100 mph range and easily overpowered the Low-A competition. His slider can be lethal and equally overpowering. And, surprisingly, his upper 80s changeup looks to be an effective third offering with plenty of velo separation and arm-side run. It’s going to come down to his ability to consistently throw strikes, which is far from guaranteed – both presently and projected. There’s obvious reliever risk with the ceiling as a Joe Kelly or Kyle Farnsworth type flamethrower. If he does start throwing strikes, which the organization has struggled to coax out of its young, erratic arms, he could pop in a big way.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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10. Starlyn Caba, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/45 | 20/40 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 45 |
Background: As noted by MLB Pipeline, Caba was one of the more highly touted, highly recognizable free agents on the international scene last signing period. And the Phillies’ front office paid him accordingly too, handing the teenage switch-hitter a hefty $3 million deal. A few months after officially joining the NL East contenders, Caba found himself in the Dominican Summer League for his professional debut. And he more than acquitted himself nicely. Appearing in 38 games, the 5-foot-10, 160-pound infielder batted .301/.423/.346 with two doubles, two triples, and 16 stolen bases (in 22 attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 17%, a solid showing that guarantees his promotion up to Low-A to start 2024.
Scouting Report: A silky smooth defender at the game’s premium position, Caba should have no issues staying at the position and – potentially – contending for a Gold Glove at some point in his career. Solid arm strength, especially given his age and frame, Caba had no trouble making all the throws, both easy and tough. There’s a bit of flash and flare to his leatherwork, which, quite frankly, is fun to watch. Nice easy swing from both sides of the plate, He lacks any type of noticeable thump and drive. Definitely needs to work on getting stronger and utilizing legs.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027/2028
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
