Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Jackson Merrill, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 40/50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: FriarsGeneral Manager A.J. Preller and the club’s entire scouting department and player development gurus do not get enough credit. In their quest to win a World Series the franchise dealt away a plethora of young minor league talent. Guys like: Ryan Weathers, Justin Lange, Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Owen Caissie, Blake Hunt, Cole Wilcox, Luis Patino, David Bednar, and Jack Suwinski, among others. That exodus of talent all came within the last three to three-and-a-half years. And, yet, the farm system remains as full as ever, from top to bottom. There’s Blue Chip bats like Ethan Salas and Jackson Merrill, or promising young arms like Jairo Iriarte, Robby Snelling, and Dylan Lesko. It’s just a well-run organization when it comes to identifying, acquiring, and developing young ballplayers and enough credit isn’t given to the front office for this. Honestly, it’s remarkable. Almost, say, like finding a franchise cornerstone shortstop at the backend of the first round who just also happened to be the ninth player at the position taken that summer. But that’s exactly what happened to the Padres and Jackson Merrill. A product of Severna Park High School, Merrill would hear his name called until the 27th overall pick in 2021, but he’s quickly established himself as one of the best young players in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound infielder looked dynamic during his abbreviated 2022 in Low-A, slugging .325/.387/.482 in 45 contests. Last season, he split his time between Fort Wayne and San Antonio, putting together a rock solid .277/.326/.444 line with 25 doubles, four triples, 15 homers, and 15 stolen bases (in 19 attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 8%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Filling in the role that former top prospect C.J. Abrams once held: a talented, young shortstop with the potential for a plus hit tool, though Merrill offers up better power potential and glove. There’s a chance he could peak in the 20- to 25-HR range.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 300 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a sub-14% strikeout rate, and a walk rate between 4% and 7%. Those four bats: Cedric Hunter, Tyrone Taylor, Simon Muzziotti, and – of course – Jackson Merrill.
What’s even more impressive about Merrill’s 2023 season is the fact that he was absolutely dreadful the first month of the year, putting together a lowly .182/.244/.338 through his first 21 games. After that he slugged .296/.343/.465 over his remaining 93 contests. Merrill’s a do-everything well-type of prospect: plus hit tool, developing power, great pitch recognition, speed, and above-average work as a defender. I’ve always been a fan of Merrill’s swing and it’s never failed to live up to expectations. He’s just beginning to tap into his raw power now. In terms of big league production, think .300/.360/.440. Xander Bogaerts vibes.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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2. Ethan Salas, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 60 | 40/30 | 50/55 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: It has to be tough to have a highly touted baseball prodigy for an older brother. Always living in his shadow; always being compared to him. The Miami Marlins signed shortstop José Salas to a massive $2.8 million deal during the summer of 2019. And it looked like Salas would be on the fast-track to big league success early in his career: he reached Low-A as an 18-year-old and spent half-a-season in High-A a year later. He was even listed among some pundits as a Top 100 prospect heading into last season before his offense cratered. In spite of growing up with a highly touted prospect for a brother, Ethan Salas has – easily – surpassed his older brother’s status as a baseball player. Signed off the international free agent market last January for twice the bonus his brother received, the younger Salas, who received $5.6 million from the Padres, quickly became the talk of baseball. Touted as a generational type catcher, even before the season began, Salas’s rapid ascension through the minor leagues failed to quell that notion. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound 17-year-old looked like a man among boys during his debut in the California League last season, batting .267/.350/.487 with 11 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and five stolen bases in only 48 games. His production with the Lake Elsinore Storm, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 22%. The front office brass pushed Salas up to High-A (briefly) and then onto Double-A to wrap up the season of fervor.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only thirteen 17-year-old hitters tallied at least 200 plate appearances with one club in any Low-A league. Salas’s 122 wRC+ ranks third among the group, trailing only former Mets super prospect Fernando Martinez and former Yankees youngster Jose Tabata.
It’s worth noting that Martinez failed to live up to the hype that swirled about his minor league production, batting .206/.269/.362 in 99 big league games, and Tabata was essentially a league average bat for his 509-career big league games.
Already standing 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, it’s easy to forget how young Salas is based on physical appearances – as long as you’re not looking directly at his baby face. Salas’s inexperience was exposed late in the season, particularly in Double-A where pitchers relied on their guile and deception to generate some awful swings out of the backstop. Prodigious power, both raw and in-game, Salas was on pace for 37 doubles and 30 homeruns in Low-A (based on a full 162-game season). He did show a propensity for whiffing, but given his age and levels of competition it doesn’t even register a blip on the concern-o-meter. San Diego’s not doing him any favors by pushing him through the system so aggressively. He should be slated to spend at least half-a-season back in High-A. The ceiling is Adley Rutschman-high.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Dylan Lesko, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60/70 | 70 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: Armed with a pair of first round picks two years ago, the front office threw caution to the wind not once, not twice, but three times. Calculated Gamble #1: Use the 15th overall pick on a high school hurler, easily the riskiest of positions / ages to draft. Calculated Gamble #2: Use their second first round pick, 39th overall, on another prep arm. Calculated Gamble #3: Select a high school hurler who recently underwent Tommy John surgery. But here we are. And here’s San Diego, quietly patting themselves on the back for two very, very strong selections with those first round picks. Obviously, the club snagged southpaw Robby Snelling with the latter of the two picks. The first was used on Buford High School ace – and Tommy John recipient – Dylan Lesko. Formerly committed to the University of Vanderbilt, Lesko finally made his way back to a meaningful mound in late June. After four appearances in the Complex League, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound right-hander made five appearances with Lake Elsinore and finished his debut season with three starts with Fort Wayne. Lesko would hurl a combined 33.0 innings, striking out 52 and walking 22 to go along with a 5.45 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s #2-type potential.
Scouting Report: A year after the falling to the 15th overall pick, you could make an argument that Lesko may have been the #1 overall pick had he not succumbed to Tommy John surgery. To put it simply: his plus, mid-90s fastball is the worst of this three offerings, which is clearly saying something. Lesko complements his 95-mph heater with a curveball that will flash plus-plus, a bonafide swing-and-miss offering with tremendous, hard, down bite and one of the best – if not the best – changeup in the minor leagues. His changeup will hover in the 79- to 81-mph range, about 15 mph less than his fastball. Lesko battled command issues with all three of his offerings last year, which isn’t surprising given the layoff and accelerated development once he returned from injury. He’s a max effort guy, on every pitch, and I think that ultimately will limit his command ceiling to a 45-grade. Josh Beckett-type ceiling.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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4. Robby Snelling, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 45/50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: For the first time in a decade, the Friars drafted a pair of high school arms in the opening round of the 2022 draft. The last time they did so, in 2012, the club hit on one of their two selections: Zach Eflin, who turned into an All-Star for the Rays last season. Their other pick: fellow right-hander Walker Weickel never made it through the fires of Double-A. As for their first round picks two years ago, San Diego snagged right-hander Dylan Lesko with the 15th overall pick and then circled back around to select lefty Robby Snelling with the 39th pick. A product of Robert McQueen High School, Snelling’s debut – similar to most other prep arms from the 2022 class – was delayed until last season. But that didn’t stop the 6-foot-3, 210-pound southpaw from reaching Double-A by the end of the year. Making stops with Lake Elsinore, Fort Wayne, and San Antonio, Snelling hurled 103.2 innings (a surprising total for a teen arm) while averaging 10.2 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings. He tallied an impossibly small 1.82 ERA with a 3.07 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some Mike Hampton-type potential.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 19-year-old arms posted a 28.5% to 30.5% strikeout percentage with a 5.5% to 7.5% walk percentage with one club in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Noah Syndergaard, A.J. Cole, and Robby Snelling.
The key to Snelling’s success is pretty simple: throw strikes. Well, that and a devastating plus curveball that he commands well. The well-built lefty features a standard three-pitch mix: low 90s, average fastball, a plus curveball, and a mediocre changeup. But the young left-hander changes speeds indiscriminately and lives around that zone. He does a good job of missing off the plate (for the most part). Snelling has a bulldog mentality and requisite build to chew up plenty of innings. It looked – at times – that Snelling was trying to mix in a cut fastball or a very shallow slider, which would be a new additional to his repertoire. He’s physically maxed out, but has a high floor as a #3/#4-type starter. Barring any injuries, I would expect Snelling to debut in the big leagues by midseason 2024.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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5. Adam Mazur, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: San Diego’s selected just five players from the University of Iowa in franchise history. Perhaps interesting enough, two of those five selections came in the 2022 Draft: Adam Mazur, second round, and Dylan Nedved, ninth round. The 53rd overall player taken that summer, Mazur parlayed his stout showing in the Cape Cod the previous year into a solid junior campaign for the Hawkeyes: 93.2 IP, 98 K, 30 BB, and a 3.07 ERA. San Diego delayed Mazur’s debut until last season. And he quickly made up for any lost developmental time. The lanky 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander made 24 appearances between Fort Wayne and San Antonio, 18 of them coming via the start, throwing 96.0 innings while averaging 8.4 strikeouts and a miniscule 1.6 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s the type that will dominate the low levels quickly, before struggling – maybe temporarily – in the mid-levels of the minor leagues. #5-type arm. I had a late second / early third round grade on him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been fourteen 22-year-old hurlers that posted a 19.5% to 21.5% strikeout percentage with a sub-5.0% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 50 IP): Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, Jakob Junis, Anthony Bass, Ryan Merritt, Barry Enright, Brady Rodgers, Dario Agrazal, Jesus Vargas, Mike Mayers, Ryan Weber, Shaeffer Hall, Landon Marceaux, Walker Lockett, and – of course – Adam Mazur.
Mazur looked considerably better when I saw him in 2023 vs. 2022. His fastball ticked up to sitting in the mid-90s. Both of his breaking balls (slider and curveball, with the former the better option) were a bit inconsistent but flashed 55 grades. And his changeup, which sits in the 88- to 90-mph range was sneakily strong. There might be a chance he features three above-average offerings on any given day. The former second rounder also commands the zone well. Mazur is a bit of drop-and-drive guy, giving his fastball some vertical ride and he typically locates it at the letters. Mazur looked like a #5-type arm heading into the draft two years ago; I’d bump that up to a strong #4 starter.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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6. Dillon Head, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 35/40 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Homewood-Flossmoor High School’s produced a couple big league ballplayers in their history, including John Ely and Eric Hillman, as well as a handful of late round picks. Dillon Head, a Clemson University commit, shattered that draft status. A speed demon with an impressive toolkit, the young centerfielder has already been catching the eye of former big leaguers, particularly Howie Kendrick. Per Jesse Borek of MLB.com (dated 01/14/2023), the former All-Star and NLCS MVP said that Head is a “[r]eally good player, a lot of speed. He can play the game and I like the way he goes about it. He’s a hard worker.” Last season, the 6-foot, 180-pound outfielder mashed .486/.565/.916 with nine doubles, two triples, and six homeruns with a 4-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 games for the Vikings. San Diego selected him in the opening round, 25th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.5 million. Head split his debut between the Complex League and Lake Elsinore, hitting an aggregate .267/.363/.400 in 27 games spanning 124 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Speed is the name of the game for the young outfielder – both on the base paths and in the outfield. But he isn’t a one dimensional prospect either. Good looking left-handed swing with tremendous bat control and bat-to-ball skills. The problem, though, is that he tends to top the ball more than you’d like. He’s’ a project, but there’s an interesting foundation in place.”
Prior to the draft, I had a late first round / early second round grade on the prep outfielder.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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7. Graham Pauley, IF/OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 45 | 50/40 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Barely a year-and-a-half removed from their 2022 draft, the Friars’ class has to be considered a smashing success, at least at this point. Dylan Lesko, from his return from Tommy John surgery, looked potent as he reached High-A. Robby Snelling, only a teenager last season, spent time in Double-A. Adam Mazur looked significantly better than he did heading into the draft, which is saying something since he was snagged in the second round. Now three of their mid- to late-round selections from that class find themselves among the club’s Top 20 prospects: Nathan Martorella (5th round), Jakob Marsee (6th round), and Graham Pauley (13th round). Signed for just $125,000 as the 390th overall pick two years ago, Pauley turned in a decent debut that summer as he split time between the Complex League and Lake Elsinore, hitting a combined .276/.403/.476 with 12 extra-base knocks in 32 games. Last season, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound corner infielder / corner outfielder made stops with Lake Elsinore, Fort Wayne, and San Antonio, batting an aggregate .308/.393/.593 with 32 doubles, five triples, 23 homeruns, and 22 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 52%.
Scouting Report: A defensive vagabond that spent time at second and third bases, as well as left and right fields last season, Pauley used a contact-heavy approach to propel his way through the low levels of the minors. And he showed improved thump as well. In fact, Pauley was so impressive (how impressive was he?!?) that the organization named him their Minor League Batter of the Year. Simple, short, quick left-handed swing, Pauley looks really good at the plate, peppering line drives all around the diamond and showing a very good feel for the barrel of the bat. The power he showed last season may be a bit of mirage given the swing, but there’s a chance for a 55-grade bat, 45-grade power, and solid defensive versatility. I’m always a bit hesitant when a player rockets through a few levels without the league having time to adjust (a la Pauley), so I’m betting on some type of regression. Low end starting option or a very strong bench / role player on a contender.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Randy Vasquez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 50/55 | 45 | 45 | 40 |
Background: The Padres did as well as they could due to the circumstances involving the Juan Soto impending trade. Because, well, everyone knew they were shopping him and, likely, had to move him. The Friars got a potential Zac Gallen-like starting pitcher in Michael King; minor league strikeout leader Drew Thorpe, who happens to be knocking on the big league’s front door; workable big league arm Jhony Brito; veteran backstop Kyle Higashioka; and – of course – Randy Vásquez, a former international free agent that tossed his best stretch of baseball with the Yankees last season. Vásquez, who joined the historic franchise for just $10,000, kicked his professional career into hyper-drive once minor league baseball came back from its COVID hiatus. He would post a 130-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 107.1 innings between Low-A, High-A, and Double-A. Two years ago the 6-foot, 165-pound right-hander breezed through the Double-A test by averaging 9.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings across 25 starts with Somerset. Last season, Vásquez made 17 starts in the International League, striking out 96 against 40 walks in 80.1 innings. He tossed another 37.2 innings with the Yanks, tallying a 2.87 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 18 walks.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Similar to Will Warren there’s definite big league value to be extracted from Vasquez’s right arm, but whether or not that comes with the Yankees – and their large payroll – is an entirely different question. There’s #4 / #5-type potential here. But, again, he’d likely get the opportunity on a rebuilding team like Orioles or Pirates.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, five 24-year-old hurlers posted a 26% to 28% strikeout percentage with a 10% to 12% walk percentage with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 75 IP): Kyle Bradish, Alex Meyer, Francisco Cruceta, Gavin Stone, and Randy Vásquez.
Long, awkward arm action that looks uncomfortable to imitate, but that doesn’t stop him from sporting an above-average 94 mph heater. Vásquez complements it with a bevy of offspeed offerings: a sweeping curveball, which is arguably his best pitch, a mediocre slider, a newly tuned cutter, which flashes 55, and a fringy changeup. The right-hander generally lives around the zone, but the command is below-average. He doesn’t own a true “out pitch” and will likely have difficulties turning over a big league lineup consistently. Spot starter / multi-inning relief arm.
Ceiling: 1.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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9. Nathan Martorella, 1B/OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 35/30 | 50 | 50 | 40 |
Background: Not to harp on the club’s 2022 draft, but Martorella joined Robby Snelling, Adam Mazur, Jakob Marsee, and Graham Pauley as members of the class to reach the fires of Double-A by the end of their first full year in pro baseball. Originally taken by the Boston Red Sox in the 30th round coming out of Salinas High School in 2019, Martorella parlayed a breakout junior campaign at the University of California, Berkley into a fifth round selection. The 6-foot-1, 224-pound first baseman / corner outfielder slugged .333/.424/.553 with 15 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns for the Pac-12 conference school. And he continued to perform at the dish as he transitioned to wood bats during his debut that summer as well, hitting .322/.421/.511 with 11 extra-base hits in 28 games between the Complex League and Low-A. Last season, Martorella continued to swing a big stick as he moved in the Midwest League: he batted .259/.371/.450 with 26 doubles, one triple, 16 homeruns, and five stolen bases in 112 games with the Fort Wayne TinCaps. His overall production with the club’s High-A affiliate, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 31%. He spent the last month-and-a-half mostly struggling in the Texas League (.236/.313/.382), and those struggles continued into the Arizona Fall League as well (.237/.338/.339).
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in High-A, consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 22-year-old bats posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ with a 17% to 19% strikeout rate and a walk rate north of 12% with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): Jordan Luplow, John Andreoli, Tres Gonzalez, Abel Nieves, and – of course – Nathan Martorella.
A solid collegiate bat that’s already exceeded the expectations of a mid-round draft pick. The former Golden Bear quickly breezed through High-A with relative easy, showing average power, strong walk rates, and a competent glove at first base. But there’s not enough oomph in the toolkit to push him towards meaningful time at the big league level. San Diego started experimenting with Martorella in the outfield to help expand his versatility and thus his overall value. He’s solid organizational depth, but his ceiling is limited.
Ceiling: 1.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Brandon Valenzuela, C/1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 45 | 20 | 55 | 55 | 40 |
Background: Another one of the under-the-radar talents the front office / scouting department found on the international free agent market. San Diego signed the switch-hitting, oft-times banged up backstop for just $100,000 six years ago – which just makes me feel old. Valenzuela would spend a year each in the foreign and stateside rookie leagues in 2018 and 2019. He would finally make his way into full season action after minor league ball returned from its COVID hiatus. Valenzuela would bat a combined .299/.393/.429 between his time with Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne. Two years ago the Hermosillo, Mexico native returned to the Midwest League, though he struggled considerably at the plate, hitting a lowly .209/.334/.348 in 99 games. Last season, Valenzuela’s litany of injuries limited him to just 66 contests – 39 with Fort Wayne and 27 with San Antonio. He cobbled together a disappointing .239/.337/.374 aggregate slash line with 14 doubles, one triple, five homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was exactly the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: all, it was a pretty terrible showing for Valenzuela last season. So bad, in fact, he batted .211 or below in four separate months (April, June, July, and August). And nearly all of his production at the plate was tied up into his patience as he walked in more than 15% of his plate appearances. The silver lining to his season, though, is the development behind the plate as he moved from a below-average to above-average defender. He’s young enough to expect a bounce back season, a la Bo Naylor, but there’s still not enough to project as a starter.
Scouting Report: Valenzuela actually looked solid at the plate during his third stint in High-A, batting .279/.372/.456 with 15 extra-base hits in only 39 games. His 22-game cameo in Double-A is another entirely different discussion (.181/.287/.255). Valenzuela continued to find first base with regularity thanks to his patient approach at the plate, and his defense behind provided some additional value as well. The bar is so low for big league catchers, that Valenzuela has more than ample opportunity to carve out a backup gig for several years.
Ceiling: 1.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
