From the second overall pick in the 2020 draft to nearly forgotten within a year’s time. Heston Kjerstad, the former University of Arkansas slugger who missed several years due to myocarditis, continues to rebuild his once golden prospect luster.
Kjerstad, a 6-foot-3, 205-pound corner outfielder, began his collegiate career with pizazz as he slugged .322/.419/.553 while tying for the Razorbacks’ lead in doubles (16) and homeruns (14). And he was able to maintain that level of production during his stellar sophomore campaign for the SEC-based school as well, batting .327/.400/.575 with 31 extra-base knocks in 65 games.
That summer the former Mariners late-round draft flier dominated on Team USA’s star-studded roster: he mashed .395/.426/.651 with a trio of doubles, a triple, and a pair of dingers in only 14 games.
COVID would eventually limit his fantastical junior campaign to just 16 games, but Kjerstad made the most of it with a scorching .448/.513/.791 slash line.
After the Tigers snagged Arizona State University star Spencer Torkelson with the top overall pick, the Orioles – with their penchant for collegiate hitters – quickly grabbed the Razorback bopper. But, unfortunately for all parties involved, Kjerstad wouldn’t dig in at the plate for roughly two years. He was diagnosed with myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle.
The former first rounder would – finally – make it into an affiliated game midway through June two years ago. He promptly made quick work of the inferior pitching in the Carolina League, batting .463/.551/.650 over 22 games. The front office bumped him up to High-A for the remainder of the year, though his numbers would take a modest step back (.233/.312/.362).
Trying to make up as much lost development time as possible, Baltimore sent their young slugger to the Arizona Fall League for some extra ABs. And Kjerstad looked Ruthian – he bashed .357/.385/.622 against some of the better arms in the minors.
Heading into the season I wrote the following in this year’s Prospect Digest Handbook:
“Plus power potential, particularly pull power, there’s a solid chance he develops an above-average hit tool. Very similar swing as former All-Star Sean Casey. Kjerstad also showed a surprising amount of agility in right field as well. He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakouts in 2023. After his strong AFL, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the O’s push him directly up to Double-A at the start of the year.”
Big Breakout? Check.
Double-A? Check.
Kjerstad’s continued to impress as he’s (A) moved straight into the minors’ toughest level and (B) did so with only 392 plate appearances since his collegiate career ended midway through 2020. Through his first 26 games, the former Razorback is sporting a .294/.385/.657 production line, belting out four doubles, three triples, and nine dingers to go along with a trio of stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production has eclipsed the league average mark by a massive 82%.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of his continued success: he’s making consistent (hard) contact. Kjerstad’s flashing a low strikeout rate (just 17.9%) to go along with premium power. And parts of two seasons into his professional career, the lefty-swinging outfielder is showing the ability to wreck southpaws too.
If you’re into speculating on baseball cards, you’re running out of time to throw a little money on Kjerstad because it feels like not enough people are talking about this middle-of-the-lineup thumper.
