Carlos Rodriguez: Updated Scouting Report After His Fast Start in Double-A

While all the attention shines on the Guardians’ or Dodgers’ or Rays’ front office for their innate ability to identify high upside arms, the Brewers quietly assembled the backbone of their recent success in similar fashion. Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner and two-time All-Star, was a fourth round pick out of St. Mary’s College seven years ago. Brandon Woodruff, also a two-time member of the Midsummer Classic, was snagged all the way in the 11^th round out of Mississippi State nearly a decade ago.

The front office, under the direction of General Manager David Stearns, swiped right-hander Freddy Peralta (along with Carlos Herrera and Daniel Missaki) from the Mariners for what amounted to one season of below average production from Adam Lind. Eric Lauer is a product of the Padres’ farm system.

It’s how small – or smaller ­­– organizations need to operate. Identify under-the-radar talent. Develop that talent. Repeat.

And Milwaukee may have found another solid big league arm in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. That round, by the way, hasn’t proven to a pipeline to the big leagues either. The only notable prospects – at least this far – are Bryan Woo (Mariners), Spencer Arrighetti (Astros), Hayden Juenger (Blue Jays), Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers), Justyn-Henry Malloy (drafted by the Braves, now with the Tigers), and – of course – Carlos F. Rodriguez.

The 177^th overall player taken that year, Rodriguez – not to be confused with the other Carlos Rodriguez with the same Brewers’ Double-A affiliate – is a product of JuCo Florida SouthWestern State College. A school, by the way, that’s produced just two players taken before the seventh round in June / July draft.

But Rodriguez quickly began to turn heads during his professional debut a year later as he split time between Carolina (A-ball) and Wisconsin (High-A). He finished the year with a solid 129-to-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 107.2 innings of work.

Here’s what I wrote in this year’s Prospect Digest Handbook:

“None of [his] offerings are standalone swing-and-miss pitches, but the young hurler changes speeds indiscriminately and consistently works around the plate. There’s some backend starting potential and Milwaukee generally gets the most out of these types too.”

In a bit of shocking move, the front office sent the young right-hander, who’s only entering his age-21 season, straight up to Double-A at the start of the year – despite throwing just 36.1 innings with Wisconsin in 2022. And Rodriguez’s been nothing short of dominant. Through his first six starts, spanning 28.2 innings, the 6-foot, 206-pound hurler owns a sparkling 1.88 ERA to go along with a 41-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

I watched his May 10^th start against the Rocket City Trash Pandas. Here’s what I saw:

A 92- to 93-mph fastball that will occasionally spill over into the 94-mph range. In today’s high octane, nitrous-powered game, it’s a pitch that falls in between average and above-average, but I graded it out as a 55 due to its ability to touch 94 at times. He’s still throwing a curveball with the same frequency as the Ice Age (he threw it just once in his 92 pitches that day), but it’s a very solid pitch, sitting in the mid-70s. His slider needs further refinement. Sometimes it’s mediocre but it’ll flash above-average frequently. Rodriguez started mixing in an upper-80s cutter this year as well. It’s decent. But his true bread-and-butter offering is a phenomenal changeup, which he has no qualms about doubling or even tripling up during the same at bats. He throws it with tremendous arm speed and locates it better than any of his other offerings.

The former sixth rounder will also add a little Johnny Cueto twist to his windup at times. He’ll also do a quick pitch, no leg kick from the windup too, but that was exclusively done when he would throw his changeup.

The command – particularly with the fastball – is below-average. I’m not sure it ever gets better than that either. But there’s some #5-type potential here, maybe a tick higher if everything breaks the right way.

Below is the pitch chart from that game. (Note: due to the terribly weird camera work, 10 pitches couldn’t be seen.)