Tyler Thornton: An In-Depth Scouting Report on the Minor League Strikeout King

Cleveland hasn’t hand any no issues finding big league relief arms in the latter rounds of the draft under the direction of Chris Antonetti or Mike Chernoff.

Cody Allen, a 23^rd round pick in 2011, was up in the big leagues a year later and spent eight seasons racking up 153 career saves. Shawn Armstrong’s quietly appeared in more than 200 big league games over parts of eight seasons – despite his 18^th round draft status. Two years later, in 2013, Cleveland nabbed Cole Sulser, a Dartmouth product, in the 25^th round and he’s working on his fifth big league season. J.P. Feyereisen, a 16^th round pick in 2014, was brilliant in 2021 and 2022 with Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, posting a 1.90 ERA in 80.1 innings of work. Eli Morgan and James Karinchak were taken in the eighth and ninth rounds six years ago. And the seventh round of the 2019 draft class added right-hander Xzavion Curry.

There’s another late round pick in the club’s 2021 draft class that’s making all kinds of waves in 2023.

Enter: Tyler Thornton.

Dominant may actually be underselling Thornton’s performance a month-and-a-half into the year. The former 17^th rounder is leading the entire minor leagues in strikeout percentage with a whopping 54.5% and strikeout rate (20.77 K/9). His strikeout-to-walk percentage, 40%, is currently tied for third as well.

With the exception of his first game in 2023 (which wasn’t aired on MiLB TV), I decided to go back and watch every single pitch the former Arizona State University starter threw. And here’s what I saw:

To say Thorton’s reliant on his riding fastball is another understatement. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound right-hander has thrown his heater more than 81% of the time. But the high frequency of the offering hasn’t dulled its results. Over his last 10 appearances, spanning 12.0 innings, the opposition has put his fastball in play just nine times. His CSW, or Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate, is a whopping 44.6%. For context: the big league average is roughly 30%.

Thornton’s fastball doesn’t light up the radar gun. He generally sits 91- to 92-mph and can reach back and touch 93 mph when needed. But its late hop makes it practically unhittable up in the zone – where he likes to live. His drop-and-drive mechanics combined with a lower-than-normal relief point add to the above-average pitch’s deception. Based on how hitters have continually reacted to it, I’m guessing that the spin rate is well above-average.

The former Sun Devil will showcase two distinct offspeed pitches: a mid-70s slider (which looks more like a shallow curveball) and mid-80s inconsistent cutter. The slider’s fringy average and should probably be scrapped all together. The cutter, though, will flash above-average at times – though not nearly as frequently as needed. Thornton’s big league future is predicated on developing a second consistent offering.

His command, particularly with his much-used fastball, is below average. But it’s difficult to hit combined with his “effective wildness” hasn’t caught up to him just yet. And his penchant for missing the strike zone leads to deep counts often. He’s averaging nearly four pitches per batter faced thus far into the year.

Thornton feels like the “late-blooming” type of prospect where he’ll bounce around a bit early in his career, before latching onto a rebuilding team and establish himself as a serviceable sixth or seventh inning specialist. Any minor league arm averaging more than 16.5 strikeouts every nine innings across part of two seasons is one worth watching.