Regardless of your opinion(s) on Jeff Luhnow, stealing signs, or the Houston Astros in general, it’s undeniable that the tarnished former General Manager assembled a dynasty – a rarity in a post-free agency world. The former Economics and Engineering dual major inherited a team fresh off of a 56-win season in 2011 and began selling everything not bolted down – and that necessarily didn’t stop him either.
Houston would win just 55 games the next season, 2012, and took an unimaginable step backward a year later, winning just 51 games. But beginning in 2014, the organization started to show a faint heartbeat. Within three years the ball club was in the World Series, starting an impressive string of six consecutive American League Championship Series appearances – including four World Series nods and a pair of titles.
It didn’t take that long for the rest of baseball to recognize the impressive talent the Astros had stashed away in the front office. Milwaukee signed wunderkind David Stearns near the end of the 2015 season. Stearns, a product of Harvard, was coming off of his third season as Houston’s assistant GM.
Three years later the Orioles, another downtrodden organization, convinced another longtime Luhnow understudy to take a job in the tough American League East.
Both moves, by the way, have been smashing successes.
Before resigning in late October, Stearns captained the tightly wound purse strings of the Brewers to four consecutive playoff appearances (2018-2021). And the early returns on the Orioles rebuild have been quite positive – including a top ranked farm system and a surprising 83-win season in 2022.
But the parallels between former Luhnow understudies don’t end there, either.
The way each club has approached the early parts of the draft is eerily similar. And it’s paying off in a big way.
Stearns and Elias each have an affinity for college prospects in the opening round of the draft – particularly college bats.
Prior to stepping down, Stearns’ front office owned nine first round picks – seven of them used on collegiate prospects with six being bats. Those six hitters have formed the backbone of the club’s farm system at varying points. Corey Ray, the fifth overall pick in 2016, was once a consensus Top 50 prospect, but never hit like he was supposed to. The next year Milwaukee grabbed UC Irvine infielder Keston Hiura with the ninth overall pick and he, too, looked like a potential franchise cornerstone as he was a consensus Top 20 prospect. And he quickly looked like one of the most promising young bats in the major leagues, posting 138 OPS+ in 348 plate appearances during his rookie year – though the success has proved to be fleeting. The club grabbed UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell, another Top 100 consensus prospect, in 2020. A year later they selected two college hitters in the opening round: Sal Frelick, yet another across the board top prospect, and Tyler Black. With the last pick of the Stearns era, Milwaukee selected – you guessed it – another college stick: Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown.
Similarly, Elias’ Orioles have had six first rounders during his tenure at the helm. Five of the six were used on college bats with the lone standout being #1 overall pick in 2022 Jackson Holliday. Elias and Co. went with the easily selection atop the 2019 draft, grabbing generational backstop Adley Rutschman with the #1 overall pick. A year later they used both their first rounders on college hitters: Heston Kjerstad, who’s dealt with myocarditis early in his professional career but looked quite promising since his debut in 2022, and Jordan Westburg, a top 100 prospect who is knocking loudly on the club’s big league door. Colton Cowser followed a year later. And then they snagged California outfielder Dylan Beavers with the 33rd overall pick last summer.
Not only did both General Managers focus on college hitters, but they’ve been fairly successful at it as well.
Corey Ray, Keston Hiura, and Garrett Mitchell have all made the big leagues. While Ray’s big league time is scant, Hiura’s been the eighth most productive pick in the 2017 first round. And Mitchell’s just one of eight 2020 first rounders to appear in the big leagues (becoming the third most productive player in the group). That doesn’t count Sal Frelick, who’s all but guaranteed to see some quality time in The Show this year as well.
Baltimore’s success is much more tangible, of course – thanks in large part due to their high picks. Rutschman’s a stud. Westburg and Cowser are currently Top 100 prospects. Kjerstad, if not for the lengthy time away due to the heart issue, likely would be too.
After the first round, though, the club’s draft philosophy begins to diverge.
Milwaukee’s only used three of their 10 second round picks on college bats, whereas the Orioles have spent six of their seven second rounders on older hitters.
So what are the odds that that two highly successful front office executives – from the same development tree – approach the opening round of the draft in similar fashion, placing a strong emphasis on successful college hitters? It seems to be more than just a coincidence – especially given the organizations’ success at it. The old adage goes states that there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Maybe it needs to be tweaked to include the importance of college hitters?
