Jack Leiter’s a Mess

There were very few collegiate pitchers – especially in the golden era of social media – that were able to capture the baseball world’s attention like Jack Leiter. The son of a former two-time All-Star and World Series Champion (twice), the teenage right-hander ascended towards top of the 2019 draft class after a phenomenal career at Delbarton School, but he warned teams against drafting him due to his unbreakable commitment to Vanderbilt University. It was a rare move — a potential Top 10 pick and a young arm that would tell big league teams no thanks.

Four games into his tenure with the Commodores, though, Leiter’s self-bet was coming up all aces as he posted a tidy 1.72 ERA with 22 punch outs and eight free passes in only 15.2 innings of work before COVID brought his freshman season to a screeching halt.

But the baby-faced right-hander raised the bar – and the expectations – even higher during his absurd sophomore campaign for Head Coach Tim Corbin. Teaming with future organizational teammate Kumar Rocker, Leiter was dominant the following season – often times looking unhittable (like his actual no-hitter against South Carolina during his SEC debut).

Leiter was everywhere. Clips of his performances flooded social media. Plus fastball, unfair slider, work ethic, diet (like chugging post-game tart cherry juice). And – of course – there was talk about his release point. Every pitch – the heater, the deuce, the slider, the change – all came from the exact same spot.

He was projected by many as the top overall pick – a surefire, fast moving, quick to the big leagues arm.

Pittsburgh passed, opting instead for Louisville backstop Henry Davis. But it didn’t take long for the Rangers to snap up the Vanderbilt co-ace with the second overall pick, handing him the highest bonus in the draft (just a shade below $8 million).

Given Leiter’s heavy workload that year Texas’s front office kept him out of affiliated action the remainder of the year.

The following year, 2022, Leiter would make his professional debut at the minors’ toughest level – Double-A. No Low-A. No High-A. Just Double-A. And he looked brilliant during his unveiling against the Arkansas Travelers, fanning seven and walking a pair while surrendering one hit across three innings. Maybe – just maybe – he could force the Rangers’ hand with a late-season promotion if he kept it up.

But he didn’t.

He struggled. He certainly had his moments too. But it was a disappointing season and there highs were too infrequent that by the end of the year the former #2 overall pick was quietly slipping off of Top 100 Prospect Lists.

I wasn’t completely convinced that the recently dominant college hurler, with just one full season under his belt, wouldn’t be a bounce back candidate as he listed him as the 50^th best prospect in the game. The plus fastball / slider combo were still intact backed up by two solid other offspeed offerings. It just made sense to stick with him.

Three games into 2023, though, it’s clear: Jack Leiter is a mess.

Back in my previous life – many, many, many years ago – I interned as a video scout for Bill James’s company, Baseball Info Solutions. I loved it, the best job I ever had. I was in heaven charting pitches. I decided to go back and watch each (available) pitch Jack Leiter’s thrown this season in his return to Double-A.

(Author’s Note: his 2023 debut against the Amarillo Sod Poodles was plagued by technical difficulties so I missed 23 pitches. These were removed from the below CSW calculations.)

Here’s what I saw – a former top end collegiate hurler battling serious consistency issues, struggling to command the strike zone (especially with his plus fastball), and – at times – becoming too reliant on a single offering.

Here’s the raw data, broken down per start:

(Legend: CS=Caught Strike, SW=Swinging Strike, Foul=Foul Ball, Ball (obvious), Contact=Ball Put in Play, %=Frequency of that offering during that start)

Just for reference: the MLB average Called Strike Plus Whiff rate (CSW) hovers in the 28% to 30%. Now let’s dive into his offerings:

Fastball: Leiter’s heater – without question – showed plus velocity, often times sitting in the 96- to 97-mph range. But only one of his starts did it actually perform like a true plus offering: his most recent game against the Arkansas Travelers. His CSW was elite that game, posting a 40.3%. But it’s misleading. Throughout the duration of his five-inning stint Leiter was consistently missing above the strike zone, but the Travelers lineup of minor league retreads couldn’t leave it alone. They were, simply, masking his poor command by chasing offerings that were clearly out of the strike zone (something that won’t be repeated too many times against a decent lineup, let alone a big league lineup). Leiter’s lack of command on the offering is concerning (but not unfixable). He often misses high or wide to the first base side of the plate – and most aren’t close calls either.

Curveball: Let’s be honest – it’s a mediocre curveball, a pitch that’s designed as a rare, get-me-over, steal-a-strike offering. And, frankly, that’s exactly how he employs it. Leiter also seems to be fond of grabbing a called strike one with the first pitch.

Slider: This is Leiter’s true bread-and-butter pitch. It lacks consistent break, but he command it’s – by far and away – the best of any of his offerings. He can throw it for strikes. He’s confident in it. And he should throw it far more frequently than he does – far more frequently than he should.

Changeup: If the frequency of Leiter’s changeup was a steak, it’d still be mooing.

The fastball command is egregious. But it doesn’t seem broken either. It’s probably a 35 with a future 40, maybe 45 if you squint hard enough. I’m still a believer in Jack Leiter. But there’s a lot to digest with his plate of development needed to go from this point to a big league rotation. He’s a mess now – but throwing his slider more frequently could help him cover his fastball command deficiencies and improve his overall performance.