Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Jeremy Pena, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Often overlooked, the University of Maine has produced seven big leaguers, the best of which include: Bill Swift, who tallied more than 20 bWAR, and Mark Sweeney. Jeremy Lee, a third round pick by the Astros, in 2018 not only became the school’s highest selection since 1991 (Larry Thomas, White Sox), but he’s on the precipice of becoming the school’s eighth big leaguer. His 2021 season, however, was delayed several months as he recovered from a surgical procedure on his left wrist. Pena made his debut in AAA on August 28th. He was able to squeeze in 30 impressive games with Sugar Land, slugging a scorching .287/.346/.598 with four doubles, two triples, and 10 homeruns. He also swiped five bags in six total attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 26% – his lowest total since his debut in short-season ball in 2018.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The power’s a 45 and will result in 10 or so homeruns. Above-average speed. Defensive versatility. And a solid glove. He’s going to be a solid bench option in the next 18 months or so.
Scouting Report: The presumed heir apparent when Carlos Correa bolts Houston for greener pastures. And, to be honest Pena’s offensive potential has already exceeded my modest expectations. He’s consistently, from Low-A to High-A to Triple-A, been a well above-average performer at the dish. A .270/.340/.430 slash line seems like a reasonable expectation. Above-average speed and glove. Solid approach at the plate with newly added thump. He’s not going to be a superstar, but he’s going to be a competent big league shortstop for a long time.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Joe Perez, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Archbishop High School’s home to a pair of notable big leaguers, who just happen to be former teammates: All-Stars Nick Castellanos and Alex Avila. The Florida-based prep school has also produced 2012 first rounder Nick Travieso, 2014 third round selection Brian Gonzalez, and – of course – the Astros second round pick five years ago, Joe Perez. A two-way star with a pair of plus offerings as a pitcher, upper 90s heater and a slider, Houston selected him with the 53rd overall pick and signed him to a deal worth $1.6 million. Maybe it was the Tommy John surgery or, simply, the Astros believed in Perez’s bat more, but he’s been strictly a hitter since entering pro ball. And at the end of 2019 it looked like that was the wrong decision: Perez hit a paltry .188/.246/.365 with 50 games with Tri-City in the New York-Penn League. But something seemed to click for the 6-foot-2, 198-pound third baseman as he jetted through Low-A, High-A, and handled Double-A with aplomb. When the dust finally settled Perez compiled an aggregate .291/.354/.495 triple-slash line, belting out 34 doubles and 18 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by 25%.
Scouting Report: With regard to Perez’s showing in AA, his longest stint last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+ and a strikeout rate between 25% and 28%. Those three hitters: Wladimir Balentien, Trey Michalczewski, and Joe Perez.
Obviously, it’s less-than-stellar production comps. So let’s dive down into Perez’s tour through the minors’ toughest challenge. Perez’s tenure with Corpus Christi began, perhaps predictably so, on a low note: he hit a paltry .137/.211/.216 through his first 14 contests. But after the adjustment period Perez slugged .296/.348/.465 with 18 doubles and seven homeruns over his next 55 games. His overall production topped the league average mark by 17%. I’m a believer in the bat. In terms of ceiling, think along the lines: .270/.340/.470.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Hunter Brown, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 65 | 60 | N/A | 45 | 55 |
Background: Thanks to a later birthday the hard-throwing right-hander was able to get in three full seasons of college ball – despite entering the draft as a 20-year-old. After a pair of mediocre campaigns at Wayne State, Brown blossomed into a bonafide ace during his junior year with the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference school. The 6-foot-2, 212-pound right-hander averaged 12.0 strikeouts and 4.0 free passes every nine innings. Houston drafted the hard-throwing hurler in the fifth round three years ago, 166th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $325,000. After debuting in the New York-Penn League in 2019, the organization aggressively challenged Brown and sent him to Double-A. And after 13 appearances with Corpus Christi, Brown earned a promotion up to AAA. He made 24 appearances, 19 of which were starts, fanning 131 and walking 50. He finished the year with a 4.04 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, five 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in a AAA season with one organization (min. 50 IP): 24.5% and 26.5% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 8% and 11%. Those five pitchers: Wade Davis, Griffin Canning, Logan Allen, Dana Eveland, and Hunter Brown.
Brown not only owns the best arsenal in the Houston system, but he’s among the most lethal hurlers in all of minor league baseball. The former Division II hurler sports a mid-90s heater, a filthy yacker of a curveball, and a wipeout slider. All three offerings are plus with the curveball flashing plus-plus. He reportedly throws a below-average changeup, though I didn’t see it. There’s obvious reliever risk given his propensity for handing out walks. Boom-bust. Reliever or Front half of a rotation caliber starting pitcher.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Pedro Leon, SS/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Signed out of La Habana, Cuba, for $4 million last January. Leon first popped up on big league radars as a 19-year-old when he debuted in the Cuban National Series, hitting .333/.365/.556 for the Huracanes de Mayabeque. And he followed that up with an even better showing the next year in Cuba’s premier professional league: he slugged .383/.467/.789 with seven doubles and 15 homeruns. And Houston didn’t have any qualms about challenging their high priced import during his first season stateside either. In 52 games with the Corpus Christi Hooks, Houston’s Double-A affiliate, Leon batted a respectable .249/.359/.443 with seven doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns. He also appeared in 17 mostly forgettable games in AAA as well.
Scouting Report: I’ll be accused – I’m sure – of manipulating the data to fit a narrative, but I’ll explain my argument in a minute. Let’s break down Leon’s season into three separate parts:
- Part I: In 13 games he bats .128/.226/.277
- Part II: In 44 games he hits .285/.402/.481
- Part III: In 12 games he hits .073/.240/.073
Part II is, by far, the most reliable baseline. Now let me explain:
- Part I: Adjustment period. Leon hadn’t played official baseball in two years and Houston shoved the 23-year-old straight into the minors’ toughest challenge, the make-it-or-break-it level (Double-A).
- Part II: Post-adjustment period, which is pretty self explanatory.
- Part III: Return from DL. Leon spent six weeks on the disabled list, the result of a fractured pinky.
His production during Part II, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 38%. If you’re into speculating on prospect baseball cards, here’s one I’d be buying.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Korey Lee, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Not much of an offensive threat during his first two seasons at University of California, Berkley, Lee burst onto the scene during his junior campaign: he slugged a healthy .337/.416/.619 for the Pac 12 conference school, belting out 12 doubles and 15 homeruns. Houston selected the surging backstop in the opening round, 32nd overall, in 2019 and signed him to a deal worth $1.75 million. Lee made stops at three separate levels during his 2021 season, going from High-A to Double-A and capped it off with a nine-game stint in AAA. In total, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound catcher batted a solid .277/.340/.438 with 18 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped four bags in five attempts. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 6%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Lee doesn’t own a true standout skill. He’s similar to former University of California backstop – and 2016 second rounder – Brett Cumberland, though with less patience at the plate. Lee looks like a solid backup, perhaps peaking as a low-end starting option for a non-contending team.
Scouting Report: Average hit tool, 15-homer thump, and a solid approach at the plate. The bar for catcher production is fairly low at the big league level, so Lee’s still tracking as a potential starting option within the next year or two. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, seven 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 200 PA): Austin Romine, Ali Sanchez, David Winfree, Jake Cave, Engelb Vielma, Nathan Lukes, and Korey Lee.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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6. Jaime Melendez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45/55 | 45 |
Background: The franchise handed the diminutive right-hander a fairly sizeable bonus, just under $200,000, three years ago. And it looked like a questionable signing at the time. Melendez stood just 5-foot-8 and looked to be physically maxed out. And then he stepped on the mound. Melendez posted a 39-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28.1 innings of work in the Dominican Summer League in 2019. And the front office decided to aggressively challenge the teenage right-hander last season, assigning him directly to Low-A. That lasted all of six appearances – in which he posted a 0.49 ERA – before getting bumped up to High-A and then eventually up to Double-A. By season’s end Melendez, the new Mighty Mouse, averaged 14.0 strikeouts and 5.1 walks per nine innings. He tallied 11 starts, nine relief appearances, and 58.0 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Per Baseball Reference’s Stathead, there are 123 instances in which a pitcher 5-foot-8 or less tossed at least 150 innings. The last do it: Fred Norman, all the way back in 1972. And before him: Vic Lombardi, in 1946. Both of those guys, for what it’s worth, were southpaws. So, needless to say, Melendez has some pretty long shot odds to become a big league starting pitcher – though that’s not for a lack of talent. Fastball peaks at 94 mph. Above-average curveball. Average slider. And an average changeup that’s a bit too firm for my liking. Melendez shows a lot of confidence in his entire repertoire and he changes speeds well. He’s a potential multi-inning relief arm or an opener, if Houston decides to employ that strategy. I really like him, though.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Diosmerky Taveras, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | N/A | 45/55 | N/A | 40 | 45 |
Background: The news barely registered a blip in the press release. Major League Baseball announced the Astros had signed 26 international free agents on July 3, 2017, highlighted by Brazilians Heitor Tokar and Victor Coutinho, and Dominican Jose Betances. And listed at the bottom of the article, almost as if he’s a footnote, was the announcement of Diosmerky Taveras’ signing, for $55,000 out of the Dominican Republic. Last year Taveras, a broad-shouldered hurler who’s built more like a linebacker, moved into full season action for the first time. He made 17 appearances with Fayetteville before moving up to Asheville for another four appearances. The 6-foot-3, 248-pound righty tossed 78.1 innings, recording a whopping 95 punch outs and racking up 49 free passes. He compiled an aggregate 4.37 ERA.
Scouting Report: One of the more fascinating hurlers to watch in the minor leagues. Taveras uncorks a plus to plus-plus heater – which, admittedly, a lot of guys do nowadays. But it’s the way he delivers the ball that makes him fascinating. It’s an extreme, funky short-arm action. One of the minor league announcers likened it to shot-putting the ball towards home plate. He throws two separate breaking balls: a curveball, which he was reluctant to throw, and a power slider that flashed above-average, maybe even better. The slider is inconsistent, raw, but it’s going to become a swing-and-miss pitch with some further fine-tuning. He also throws a changeup, but he consistently shook off that pitch as well. He’s heading into a full time relief role. But there’s a high ceiling here as a late-inning fireman.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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8. Forrest Whitley, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 45 |
Background: What’s the baseball equivalent of the old adage, “Always a bridesmaid, never a bride”? For Forrest Whitley it has to be something like, “Always a Top Prospect, never a Big Leaguer.” It goes without saying that Whitley, the 17th overall pick in the 2016 draft, has had a rough go over it for the past several years. He dealt with an oblique and lat issue in 2018. That was followed up with right shoulder woes in 2019. And then his elbow flared up during the COVID 2020 season. Finally, he missed all of last year – wait for it – recovering from Tommy John surgery. He last toed the mound in a meaningful game on September 2, 2019.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The control, repertoire, and build – he’s 6-foot-7 and 195-pounds – all suggest elite pitcher, but it’s concerning that he’s been as limited as he has been in terms of workload.
Scouting Report: Once upon a time Whitley looked like the steal of the 2016 draft. A bevy of plus pitches, solid command, a massive frame – it’s literally the mold every pitcher should be cut from. At this point, though, anything the club gets out their former top prospect would be surprising. Here’s hoping for a healthy return to action in 2022.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2022 /2023
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9. Peter Solomon, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 |
Background: Just another example of the organization’s ability to churn out pitching prospects. Solomon, a fourth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, was a little-used spot starter during his junior campaign. And one who had a history of spotty command. And just a year after entering the organization Solomon developed into one of the club’s better performing minor league arms, averaging 10.2 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings in 24 appearances between Low-A and High-A. Solomon missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery and, of course, had to sit out the 2020 COVID year as well. Last season, his first game action since June 28, 2019, Solomon tossed 97.2 innings with Sugar Land, posting a 112-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also tossed an additional 14.0 innings with the Astros, fanning 10 and walking 8.
Scouting Report: It’s all about the breaking ball for Solomon – all three of them. And they’re all above-average. The 6-foot-4 right-hander relies primarily on a slider / cutter combination, particularly as his out pitches. He loves locating the cutter in on left-handed hitters’ hands. And he spots the slider low-and-away to right-handers. Beyond that, his fastball sits in the low 90s, peaking a tick or two higher, and a low 80s changeup. Solomon’s likely not going to get a ton of opportunities in the Astros’ rotation because (A) they’re trying to extend their closing window of contention and (B) it’s simply a numbers game. There’s some Kendall Graveman-type relief potential here.
Ceiling: 1.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020
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10. Alex Santos II, RHP
| FB | CB | SL/CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50 | 50/55 | N/A | 40/45 | 40 |
Background: Surprisingly enough Mount St. Michael High, located in the Bronx, has produced a number of draft picks – seven, to be exact. None of the previous six, though, ever sniffed the big leagues during their professional career. Houston selected the 6-foot-4, 194-pound New Yorker in the second round, 72nd overall, two years ago and signed him to a deal worth $1.25 million. The young right-hander made 12 appearances, seven of which were starts, with the organization’s Low-A affiliate; he struck out 48 and walked 30 in 41.2 innings of work. He compiled a 3.46 ERA, a 4.53 FIP, and a 5.50 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in a season in Low-A with one organization (min. 40 IP): a strikeout percentage between 25% and 27% with a walk percentage of at least 14%. Those three hurlers: Archie Bradley, Adys Portillo, and – of course – Alex Santos II.
It’s pretty incredible that Santos was handing out walks like they were going out of style and, yet, somehow he finished the year with a 3.89 ERA. A low 90s fastball, a slurvy-type curveball, and a slider/cutter that projects to above-average. While the young pitcher is quite raw – which is to be expected coming from a cold-weather state – there’s a silver lining to his command-deficient debut: Santos has back-to-back starts in early July where he walked 11 hitters in 5.1 innings of work. Ignoring those two disastrous outings, his walk rate declines from 6.5 BB/9 to 4.71 BB/9. As an organization Houston develops breaking balls as well as any. Santos is certainly a name to watch in the coming years.
Ceiling: 1.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
