Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Bobby Witt Jr., 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 80 |
Background: Every time I look up Bobby Witt Jr.’s Baseball Reference page, which is about – oh – every other day, I inevitably wind up on his old man’s page and I’m always blown away by his first couple of years in the big leagues. Witt Sr., the third overall pick in the 1985 draft, was a full-time big leaguer by the ’86 season. And between his first two MLB season the hard-throwing right-hander averaged 8.5 BB/9 in 300.2 innings. Man, the 1980s were wild time, weren’t they? Anyways, when you’re old man is the third overall pick in the draft, the odds are pretty small that you’re going to be able to top that lofty status, but Bobby Witt Jr. did just that – barely. A product of Colleyville Heritage High School, the club signed him to a massive $7,787,400 deal – nearly a third of the earnings his dad tallied in 16 big league seasons. Junior appeared in 37 games with Kansas City’s Arizona Summer League affiliate that year, batting a mediocre .262/.317/.354 with eight extra-base knocks. Last season, after minor league ball returned to action following the COVID-imposed shutdown, the front office looked almost insane as they shoved the then-21-year-old infielder with barely three dozen professional games past his high school days straight into the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, to begin the 2021 campaign. But Dayton Moore & Co. proved to be crazy – like a fox. Witt responded by slugging an impressive .295/.369/.570 with 11 doubles, four triples, 16 homeruns, and 14 stolen bases. The front office bumped him up to Triple-A in late July and he continued to mash, posting a nearly identical .285/.352/.581 slash line. In total – again, with just 37 games beyond his high school career – Witt Jr. slugged an aggregate .290/.361/.576 with 35 doubles, four triples, 33 homeruns, and 29 stolen bases (in 40 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by an astounding 43%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: A patient hitter with explosive bat speed, Witt Jr. possesses the rare gift of true five-tool talent. The hit tool and power look like above-average offerings. And he does a phenomenal job keeping his hands inside of the baseball.
Scouting Report: Let’s have a little fun, shall we? With regard to Witt’s production in Double-A, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 21-year-old hitters posted a 140 to 150 wRC+ total with a walk rate between 8% and 10% in Double-A with one organization (min. 275 PA): Gavin Lux, Miguel Vargas, Justin Williams, Kyle Blanks, and – of course – Bobby Witt Jr.
Now let’s take a look at his production in AAA:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hitters posted a 137 to 147 wRC+ total with a strikeout rate between 21% and 23% in Triple-A with one organization (min. 275 PA): Adam Jones, Wil Myers, Dilson Herrera, and – of course – Bobby Witt Jr.
Unsurprisingly, Witt got off to a wickedly slow start to the year, hitting a lowly .234/.303/.467 through his first 26 games. Beginning on June 5th through the rest of the season, he slugged .305/.376/.605. Phenomenal hit tool. Plus power. Solid patience. Above-average speed. No platoon splits. Elite production against significantly older competition. The lone knock on an otherwise perfect prospect? His below-average glove. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .300/.380/.550.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. M.J. Melendez, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The Royals front office led off their 2017 draft class by selecting prep first baseman Nick Pratto and followed it up by choosing another prep phenom, MJ Melendez, with their first selection in the second round – perhaps, forever linking the two top picks. And if their draft status and age made them comparable, then their significant, almost career defining slumps in 2019 only cemented the two. After slugging .251/.322/.492 in 111 games in Low-A in 2018, the lefty-swinging backstop hit a putrid .163/.260/.311 in 110 games with Wilmington the following year. And just like – you’ve guessed it! – Nick Pratto, Melendez’s production surged to a career best in 2021 as he split time in Double-A and Triple-A. When the dust had finally cleared on his renaissance season, the former second round pick was batting .288/.386/.625 with 22 doubles, three triples, and 41 homeruns, the highest total in the minor leagues. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a staggering 62%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: If one promising hitting prospect looks lost at the plate as his production craters to sub-Mario Mendoza lines it could be a variety of things: undisclosed injury, poor conditioning, mechanical flaws, or – perhaps – a failure of talent. But if two highly drafted hitters fail at the identical subterranean levels, than it can’t be a coincidence, right? Because Pratto’s hit tool was superior to Melendez prior to their disastrous 2019 season, but the latter’s defense adds an added dimension. But they’re both fighting an uphill battle now. One final note: Melendez threw out 60% of would-be base stealers last season.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters posted at least a 150 wRC+ with a walk rate north of 12% and an 18% to 22% strikeout rate in Double-A with one organization (min. 300 PA): Joey Votto, Alex Gordon, Chris Carter, and – of course – MJ Melendez.
- Now…slow down…Melendez’s production was at least 10 percentage points below the next closet hitter (Gordon).
If Pratto’s metamorphosis was special, than Melendez’s transformation is – simply – one-in-a-million. The lefty-swinging shortstop went from posting three consecutive seasons of 30% or higher strikeout rates to – somehow – whiffing in less than 22% of his plate appearances at the minors’ two most challenging levels. Of course, Melendez, like Pratto, made some mechanical tweaks between 2019 and 2021, such as: he lowered his hands, holding them closer to his chest/torso. Throw in his trademark stellar work behind the dish and his ability to control the running game, and Melendez – like Pratto – should become a franchise cornerstone. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .270/.370/.500.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Nick Pratto, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 45/50 | 60 |
round: It might not have been the right move, but it wouldn’t have been out of the question when John Sherman took control of the Kansas City franchise that he would have cleaned house in the front office. The Royals were at the start of another rebuild, many of the club’s supposed top prospects had regressed mightily (see: Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez), and it would have given Sherman the perfect excuse to bring in his own guys. But the new captain of the Royals’ ship did the prudent thing: he left Dayton Moore, who remains one of the more underrated front office members in the game (at least, in terms of the casual fan), alone. Two years later the system is flourishing, the Royals seem on track for another resurgence, and those failed top prospects have rebounded. Taken with the 14th overall pick five years ago, Pratto had the look and feel of a smooth-hitting, batting average-driven, power-deficient first baseman. He handled the tough South Atlantic League with relative ease as a 19-year-old, batting .280/.343/.443 in 2018. And then the wheels on the Pratto express just…fell off. He stopped hitting – completely – when he moved in High-A in 2019, cobbling together a vomitous .191/.278/.310 slash line in 124 games. The performance was so bad, that most – including myself – had all but written him off. Two years later: he’s morphed into a legitimate power-hitting first baseman. In 124 games between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, the Huntington Beach High School product mashed .265/.385/.602 with 28 doubles, seven triples, 36 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by a whopping 56%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Mechanically speaking, he’s made some changes. In 2018 the former first round pick kept his hands closer to his torso with his left thumb near ear level height. Last season, though, the hands were pushed back with a lot more jostling prior to the pitch. He also looked noticeably bulking in 2019 as well, and not in a good one. I ultimately think it’s just going to be a mechanical flaw, so it’s difficult to completely hop off Pratto’s bandwagon after an abysmal season (though, you can’t really blame someone for doing so). But he has a long road ahead of him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters posted a 150 wRC+ total with at least a 12% walk rate and a strikeout rate north of 26% in Triple-A with one organization (min. 250 PA): Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Domingo Santana, and Nick Pratto.
Let’s go to the game tape, shall we? Reexamining his 2019 tape and it’s pretty evident that Pratto was out of sync (his timing and weight transfer were off) and he did look a bit…pudgy. Last season, though, Pratto was swinging with much more authority, getting better rotation with his torso, showcasing better bat speed, and – in general – looked much better. Plus, he’s walking more frequently, putting the ball on the ground less, and still showing no platoon splits (he actually hit lefties slightly better in 2021). In terms of big league ceiling, think: .280/.350/.500.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Asa Lacy, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 70 | 40/45 | 60 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Kansas City has selected 16 players out of Texas A&M University throughout their history. Fun Fact Part II: The organization has used two Top 5 selections on former Aggies – Jeff Granger (1993, fifth overall) and Asa Lacy (2020, fourth overall), both of whom are hurlers. A dominant, sometimes erratic pitcher throughout his tenure with the SEC Conference school, Lacy seemed to be on the precipice of one of the most dominating pitching seasons in recent memory: he posted a videogame-esque 0.75 ERA with 46 punch outs and eight free passes in 24.0 innings across four starts. Last season, though, Lacy battled a few demons as he made his highly anticipated debut within the organization: his control had completely abandoned him and he hit the disabled list with a wonky shoulder in late July. He was limited to 14 starts with the Quad Cities River Bandits, averaging an impressive 13.7 K/9 and a hugely concerning 7.1 BB/9. He finished the regular season with a 5.19 ERA, a 4.81 FIP, and a 4.70 xFIP. Lacy did pop up with the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League, throwing another 7.2 innings with a bunch of strikeouts (15) and too many free passes (six).
Scouting Report: If one were to build a pitching prospect from the ground up, the end result may resemble Asa Lacy in a lot of ways. The former Aggies ace owns a quartet of plus offerings, each a potential dominant, swing-and-miss offering on their own. Combined, they could be one of the best repertoires in the game – at any level. Plus mid-90s fastball with incredible life and added deception from the funk in his delivery. Hard tilting, knee-buckling curveball. Late, two-plane-breaking slider that’s lethal when thrown towards the back foot area of the right-hander’s batter’s box. And – quite simply – one of the best changeups I saw all last season. He throws it with tremendous arm, resulting in significant velocity separation. Combine that with his frame size – 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds – and the fact that he throws left-handed, and Lacy seems to have it all. Except a grasp on the strike zone. He was never a “command guy” in college, but last season’s struggles are a first – which brings hope that he’ll rebound in 2022.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Kyle Isbel, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The Royals’ 2018 draft class could – potentially – go down as the best in franchise history – which is saying something. And if it fails to reach that summit, than it could be the deepest in their history. Five of the club’s first six selections – Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Kyle Isbel – have already reached the big leagues. Isbel, the first hitter taken by the organization that year, was a solid contributor in UNLV’s lineup his first two seasons, but things came together for the lefty-swinging center fielder during his junior campaign as he slugged .357/.441/.643 in 59 games. And he continued to swing a hot stick as he moved into the professional ranks for his debut: he batted .326/.389/.504 in 64 games between the Pioneer and South Atlantic Leagues. Kansas City sent him directly to High-A in 2019, but he struggled to stay healthy and hit a disappointing .217/.282/.361 in only 52 games. Last season, despite the poor, limited showing in High-A, the front office aggressively showed the former Rebel directly up to Triple-A. This time, though, Isbel proved up to the challenge. In 105 games with the Omaha Storm Chasers, the 5-foot-11, 190-pound outfielder hit .269/.357/.444 with 18 doubles, three triples, 15 homeruns, and 22 stolen bases. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 16%. Isbel also sandwiched his season with a pair of extended stays in Kansas City, hitting an aggregate .276/.337/.434.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 24-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Triple-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a 9% to 11% walk rate, and a 19% to 21% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Jesus Montero, Tim Federowicz, Conner Capel, and Kyle Isbel.
I’ve always been a huge fan of the former UNLV masher. He just seems like a gamer, the type of guy that gets the most out of his talent – like Ryan Freel. It took Isbel a couple months to get his footing underneath him, but he was able to turn it around in late June. After hitting .234/.320/.360 over his first 53 games (including his first stint in the big leagues), he batted .297/.378/.502 over his final 80 contests (including his second stint in the big leagues). Runs. Works the count. Flashes 15-homer power. Plays a solid center field.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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6. Ben Kudrna, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 60 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: As highlighted in a post-draft article on Sports Illustrated, the script couldn’t have been written better for the young, hard-throwing right-hander. The Kansas-born teenager attended school at Blue Valley Southwest High School which – according to Google Maps – is just 31 minutes away from Kauffman Stadium. The only player drafted in Blue Valley Southwest’s history, the front office went well beyond the recommended slot bonus and signed the 6-foot-3, 175-pound pitcher to a massive $2,997,500 bonus as the 43rd overall pick. The deal was roughly $1.3 million more than recommended value. Prior to the joining the organization he was committed to attend SEC powerhouse Louisiana State University. He was also named the Kansas Gatorade Player of the Year. His final senior numbers: 9-1 win-loss record with a sparkling 0.99 ERA.
Scouting Report: Long, lean, and just oozing future projection. Physically speaking, Kudrna’s cut from the same cloth as Jackson Kowar. The former prep star features an impressive three-pitch mix: fastball, slider, and changeup, all of which are swing-and-miss options. The fastball’s been clocked in the upper 90s, showing late zip. The slider is tight and, simply put, too good for prep hitters to not chase. And the changeup is one of the better ones you’ll see from a recently signed teenager. The Royals really have a chance to make a statement with their first two picks in the draft last July – as long as they can avoid the injury nexus. It’s easy to see why the club went well beyond the slot value to sign him. The more I watch, the more I like.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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7. Frank Mozzicato, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50/55 | 65 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The biggest surprise on the first night of the draft – easily surpassing Kumar Rocker’s slide to the tenth overall selection – the Royals reached way down into their bag of tricks and selected Frank Mozzicato, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound southpaw out of East Catholic High School in Connecticut. Mozzicato rocketed up drafted charts after spending the offseason developing – and putting on ten pounds – at the Cressey Sports Performance, which created a workout regime and nutrition plan for the teenage phenom. After the extra training, the fuse for Mozzicato’s explosion was lit. He struck out a whopping 135 hitters in just 55.2 innings as a senior, including a 17-strikeout, one-hitter in the Class M Connecticut State Championship. For those counting at home: Mozzicato struck out an average of 21.8 strikeouts every nine innings during his final prep campaign. He finished the season with a stellar 0.16 ERA; he also tossed four straight no-hitters during the season as well. The East Catholic High School star signed for a below slot bonus of $3.55 million, saving the Royals slightly less than $2 million.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my draft write-up:
“Eric Cressey, owner of Cressey Sports Performance where Mozzicato trained last offseason, was hired by the Yankees in early 2020 to oversee their strength/conditioning departments. So…it was clearly a smart move by the young left-hander. Low 90s fastball that, according to reports, touched as high as 94 mph during the 2021 season. Mozzicato’s curveball is (A) his bread-and-butter pitch, (B) lethal, and (C) one of the best in the entire draft class. Sitting in the mid-70s, it’s a snapdragon of a breaking ball, showing late hard, downward bite. The changeup needs some work/tweaking, but it shows some arm-side run and should develop into – at least – an average offering. There’s some sneaky upside here, reminiscent of a young Cole Hamels, though the trademark offspeed pitches differ (changeup vs. curveball). “
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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8. Jackson Kowar, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 65 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar teamed up together to form one of the best pitching tandems in the country in 2018 as each eclipsed 100 innings and 100 strikeouts during their respective junior seasons at the University of Florida. And by happenstance the Royals were able to come away with both Gators in the opening round of the 2018 draft. After selecting Singer with the 18th overall selection, the rebuilding club snagged Kowar 15 picks later. The 6-foot-5, 200-pound right-hander turned in a mediocre, albeit small sample-sized debut, but reemerged as a consensus Top 100 Prospect after a stellar 2019 campaign. Last season, Kowar made 17 appearances with the Storm Chasers of Triple-A, throwing 80.2 innings with 115 punch outs and just 34 free passes. Kansas bumped the hard-throwing North Carolina native up to The Show a couple times. He would toss another 30.1 innings with the Royals, posting an 11.27 ERA while averaging 8.6 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Prior to last year I was concerned about Kowar’s being “too hittable.” The uptick in command has squashed those ill feelings.
Scouting Report: At first blush, Jackson Kowar owns a tremendously impressive arsenal. His fastball sits in the 94- to 96-mph range. His mid- to upper-80s changeup sometimes looks like the game’s greats from yesteryear woke from their slumber to teach him how to make the pitch dance. And his slider is a solid above-average offering. But my initial fears spelled out after his debut came back to haunt last year. He’s too hittable. And, for whatever reason, the sum isn’t as great as the individual pieces. His four-seam fastball, for example, doesn’t generate many swings-and-misses and posted a paltry 15.2% whiff% with the Royals. To put that into perspective, that’s Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Matt Harvey, Zac Gallen territory. In fact, he relies too heavily on his fastball and should throw his slider more frequently. There’s #4 upside, definitely more, but he needs to adjust his approach on the mound for that to happen.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020
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9. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Old Dominion University isn’t exactly a hotbed of baseball talent. Sure, the Conference USA school has produced one surefire future Hall of Famer (Justin Verlander) and a pair of solid big league arms (Daniel Hudson and Ryan Yarbrough). But the Royals may have unearthed another potentially solid, under-the-radar prospect in first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. A hulking 6-foot-4, 245-pound first baseman, Pasquantino was a solid middle-of-the-lineup thumper in each of his three seasons with the Monarchs as he compiled a career .309/.388/.507 slash line. Kansas City selected the Richmond, Virginia, native in the 11th round, 319th overall, and signed him to a reasonably low risk deal worth $125,000 in 2019. Pasquantino signed early enough to get in a full season with the Burlington Royals in the Appalachian League during his debut, batting a rock solid .294/.371/.592 with 33 extra-base hits in only 57 games. Last season, despite not appearing in a game above the rookie advanced league, the front office pushed him straight into High-A to begin the year. And he flourished. He hit .291/.384/.565 in 61 games with Quad Cities. And he continued to bash as he moved up to Double-A, the minors’ toughest challenge: he slugged .310/.405/.560. Overall, Pasquantino, the former 11th round pick, posted an aggregate .300/.394/.563 with 37 doubles, three triples, and 24 homeruns. He also swiped six bags in as many tries – just for good measure. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 54%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Double-A with one organization (min. 225 PA): a wRC+ total of at least 145, a sub-13.0% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those six hitters: Willson Contreras, John Jaso, Tony Kemp, Jordan Brown, Dave Sappelt, and – of course – Vinnie Pasquantino.
- For those counting at home: Contreras owns a career 114 wRC+ mark; Jaso, always an underrated hitter during his time, finished his nine-year career with a 115 wRC+; and Kemp has been slightly better-than-average in 463 MLB games (101 wRC+).
A good bet to the “professional hitter” label slapped on him at some point in his professional career. The former Old Dominion slugger possesses the rare blend of above-average power, extreme contact rates, and above-average patience at the dish. Really good looking swing from the first baseman. Short, quick, explosive. He handles righties and lefties equally well. Another very savvy draft pick by the Royals.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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10. Angel Zerpa, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Proving that you don’t need to garner a whole lot of attention or command a massive six- or seven-figure bonus on the international market. Kansas City signed the 6-foot, 220-pound southpaw for a small pittance – just $10,000 – midsummer of 2016. Five years later, at the ripe ol’ age of 21, he was donning a Royals uniform during his abbreviated big league debut. A native of Valle de la Pascua, Venezuela, Zerpa was twirling gems for the Burlington Royals for the majority of the 2019 season. After taking the COVID-imposed year off in 2020, the portly southpaw dominated High-A for eight starts, continued to impress across 13 Double-A starts, stopped for a clunker in Triple-A, and made one brief appearance with Kansas City. When it was all said and done, Zerpa posted a 108-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88.1 minor league innings. And he baffled the Cleveland ballclub for five innings in late September.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hurlers posted a 26% to 28% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% and 10.5% walk percentage in Double-A with one organization (min. 40 IP): Tommy Hanson, Chance Adams, Edgar Garcia, and Angel Zerpa.
Quality three-pitch mix backed up by strike-throwing ability. Zerpa’s fastball sits in the 93- to 94-mph range with sneaky life. He’ll complement the above-average offering with two quality offspeed pitches: a low- to mid-80s slider with impressive spin and a genuine swing-and-miss, mid-80s changeup. Kansas City governed his workload in the latter part of the season. The command needs a bit of refining, but there’s definite #4-type potential here – something along the line of a Drew Smyly.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
