Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 60/70 | 30 | 70 | 50 | 70 |
Background: The draft is, at best, a gamble. Sure, front offices and organizations will make decisions to help mitigate risks, but nothing is certain. Personally, I always find it fascinating when undrafted prep players step into big time Division I baseball and dominate – a la Spencer Torkelson. A product of Casa Grande High School in Petaluma, California, the corner infielder put together a season for the ages – as a true freshman. In 55 games for the Arizona State Sun Devils, the 6-foot-1, 220-pound slugger hit .320/.440/.743 with 12 homeruns and 25 dingers – obliterating Barry Bonds’ freshman homerun record at the school. He continued swinging a massive stick during the following summer in the Cape Cod League: in 25 games with the Chatham Anglers he put together a .333/.472/.704 slash line. Next season, 2019, Torkelson continued to showcase his elite talents for the Sun Devils, posting an impressive .351/.446/.707 with 17 doubles and 23 homeruns. And he was on pace for a historic junior year before COVID canceled the college season, slugging .340/.598/.780 through 17 games. Detroit, of course, made him the top pick in the draft two years ago and handed him a humungous $8,416,300 bonus – which already has the makings of a massive bargain. Last season, his debut in professional ball, he blitzed through High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, hitting an aggregate .267/.383/.552 with 29 doubles, two triples, and 30 homeruns.
Scouting Report: This cannot be said enough: Torkelson played in a total of 17 actual games in 2020 and stepped right into the mid-levels of the minor leagues without missing so much as a beat. He rocketed through three different levels and put himself in position to make his big league debut at some point in 2022. Torkelson is going to hit for average. He’s going to hit for plus power. He consistently barrels balls, all day long. He doesn’t swing-and-miss a lot. And he walks a ton. Defensively, he was average at both first and third bases – potentially adding even more value if he can stick at the hot corner. Outside of the power display last season, Torkelson did a phenomenal job with his strikeout-to-walk rate, posting an aggregate 114-to-77 mark. In terms of big league ceiling, think something along the lines of .320/.420/.630.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Riley Greene, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
Background: Looking back at the 2019 draft and it’s obvious that the early portion of it has a chance to be historic: Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Riley Greene, C.J. Abrams, Nick Lodolo, and Josh Jung have all established themselves as legitimate top prospects. That doesn’t include the likes of Andrew Vaughn and Alex Manoah, who already appeared with their respective big league teams. And there is plenty of top talent sprinkled through the rest of the round too. Greene, a product of Paul J. Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida, received an impressive $6,180,700 bonus from Detroit as the fifth overall pick that year. The organization immediately put the toolsy center fielder on the fast track to the big leagues, pushing him through rookie ball, short-season, and Low-A during his abbreviated professional debut. His aggressive assignments continued last season as well: he ripped through the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, in a mere 84 games before finishing the year at Triple-A. When the dust finally settled Greene’s slash line was a healthy, five-tool packed .301/.387/.534 with 25 doubles, eight triples, 24 homeruns and 16 stolen bases (in 17 attempts).
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He has the potential to develop into an above-average big league starting outfielder.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): 140 to 150 wRC+ and a double-digit walk rate. Those five hitters: Cody Bellinger, Dylan Carlson, Colby Rasmus, Jon Singleton, and – or course – Mr. Riley Greene.
A few additional notes and tidbits:
- Greene’s strikeout rate, 27.4%, was the worst among the group, by at least four percentage points.
- Here are the career big league wRC+ totals for each of the hitters: 124 (Bellinger), 106 (Carlson), 102 (Rasmus), and 81 (Singleton).
Greene shows an impressive power-speed combo. Throw in above-average patience and defense and he has the makings of a potential perennial All-Star. The strikeout rate is a bit concerning, though not in full blown red flag territory. Assuming that it doesn’t continue to bloat, Greene looks like a .275/.360/.460-type hitter.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Jackson Jobe, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 70 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
Background: “He’s the best high school pitcher I’ve ever seen. You get guys a lot of guys that can throw the ball 95, 96, 97 miles an hour, they don’t always have the command, Jackson can go out there and throw a strike with any of his pitches on any count. It’s just amazing to watch that kid throw the baseball. He just goes out there and he’ll give us a complete game in 75 pitches.” – Heritage Hall Head Coach Jordan Semore, in an interview with Fox 25. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg for the hard-throwing, generationally gifted hurler. Jobe, a Perfect Game All-American, was simply unhittable during his senior campaign for the Oklahoma high school. In 10 starts in 2021, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound righty struck out a whopping 122, surrendered just 15 hits, and compiled a tidy .135 ERA in 52.1 innings of work. For those keeping track at home: that’s a staggering 21 punch outs per nine innings. Or in other words: 77.7% of the outs made were recorded via the punch out. Jobe was committed to Mississippi. Detroit selected the young flame-thrower with the third overall pick last July and signed him to a massive deal worth $6.9 million. He did not appear in a game after joining the organization.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the talented prep arm prior to the draft:
“Silky smooth mechanics that make his mid-90s heat look almost effortless. But the conversation on Jackson begins – and will always begin – on his plus-plus slider, which, according to reports, has reached over 3,000 RPMs. His curveball is a solid above-average strikeout offering. And, according to reports, he’s spent a lot of time during the offseason improving his plus changeup. Barring any injury concerns that come along with a young arm, Jobe has the potential to slide into the front of a rotation.”
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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4. Ty Madden, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | N/A | 70 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Cypress Ranch High School, a Texas powerhouse, has churned out an impressive amount of talent over the past couple of seasons. Right-hander JJ Goss was chosen by the Rays with the 36th overall pick three years ago. And fellow righty Matthew Thompson, who earned a slightly larger signing bonus, was taken by the White Sox nine selections later. Then there’s Sam Houston State center fielder Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in 2021. And, of course, Madden heard his name in the opening round last July as well. A massively broad-shouldered, Texas-born fireballer, Madden, who was taken by the Royals in the late rounds coming out of high school, split his freshman season between the Longhorn’s bullpen and starting rotation. He tossed 42.1 innings, racking up 37 punch outs and a whopping 24 free passes. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound hurler spent the ensuing summer playing for the Chatham Anglers: he made another eight appearances, averaging 9.3 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings. Madden got off to dominant start to the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. He posted an impressive 26-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 innings of work. And he was able to carry that momentum over into a dominant 2021 season. He made a career best 18 appearances, all of them coming via the start, throwing 113.2 innings with 137 strikeouts and 44 walks. He compiled a 2.45 ERA while winning seven games. He was projected to be a Top 10 selection, but fell to the Tigers with the 32nd overall pick. The club signed him to a $2.5 million deal. He did not appear in a game after signing.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the hard-throwing Longhorn before the draft last summer:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of Big12 pitchers that averaged at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 90 IP): Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Jon Gray, Steven Gingery, Brandon Finnegan, Ben Krauth, Jake Irvin, and Chad Donato. Madden, of course, averaged 10.8 K/9 in 2021.
I have to admit, going into the games I saw Madden pitch I fully expected his command/control to be below-average. But each time, though, I was pleasantly surprised. Madden attacks hitters with one of the class’s better heaters, a plus offering that can touch as high as 99 and sits comfortably in the mid-90s. His slider is one of the best secondary pitches in the class as well, showing hellacious downward tumble and sits in the mid-80s. He also features a solid-average changeup that showed some inconsistent arm-side fade when he was finishing. Madden is the rare high floor/high ceiling prospect. If his changeup fails to materialize – or if the command/control regresses – he’s a dominant relief arm. But if everything clicks [Madden] looks like a #2/#3-type starting pitcher.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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5. Reese Olson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55+ | 55 | 55 | 55/60 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Exactly the type of trade a rebuilding team should execute. All. Day. Long. Detroit acquired the young right-hander from the Brewers a day before the trade deadline in exchange for veteran southpaw Daniel Norris. Milwaukee’s scouting and player development program have done wonders. Taken in the 13th round, 395th overall, the club signed the North Hall High School product for a sizeable $440,000 bonus, the (A) largest in the round and (B) enough to convince him to forgo his commitment to Georgia Tech. Olsen opened some eyes – including mine – during his showing in the Midwest League in 2019; the then-19-year-old posted an 84-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 94.2 innings of work. Last season he made 21 starts between High-A and Double-A, throwing 104.2 innings of work with 114 strikeout and 51 free passes. He finished the year with a 3.96 ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The former prep arm is still quite raw, but he has the potential to help fill out the backend of a big league rotation if the control / command continues to trend in the right direction – perhaps peaking as a #4.
Scouting Report: One of my favorite arms in the minors. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a viable big league starting pitcher, and one, who may eke his was into a Top 100 prospect list at some time. Borderline plus fastball that regularly sits in the 93- to 94-mph range and has peaked as high as 95 mph during an outing I scouted. Above-average mid- to upper-70s curveball. Above-average mid-80s slider. And a filthy changeup that eventually becomes a consistent plus offering. The lone thing holding him – and his ceiling – back: command. It’s a 45. If it bumps up to average he’s a lock to surprise a lot of people. He’s entering his age-22 season with Double-A experience. Don’t sleep on this guy.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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6. Dillon Dingler, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50/55 | 30 | 45 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The last time the Tigers drafted a player out of The Ohio State University it didn’t work out so well – for all parties involved. Third baseman Ronnie Bourquin was the best hitter the Buckeyes had during my tenure at the school, showcasing an impressive feel for hitting and flashing above-average thump. So Detroit burned the 50th overall pick in 2006 on the lefty-swinging infielder and it became immediately clear that Bourquin lacked the chops to be a successful professional hitter. Fourteen years later the team snagged another Buckeye in the second round: backstop Dillon Dingler. The 38th overall pick in the 2020 draft – and the first player chosen in the second round – Dingler bounced through three separate levels during his pro debut last season. In total, he hit .239/.310/.407 with 10 doubles, four triples, and 12 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 5% below the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: The overall slash line is a bit low, troublesome. But let’s provide some important context: Like Torkelson, and many others, Dingler was limited to just a few weeks of action during his junior campaign in college, courtesy of COVID. He returns to regular action a year later and immediately steps into High-A without missing a beat: he slugged .287/.376/.549 in 32 games. Detroit bumped him up to Double-A in mid-June and he struggled then hit the injured list for three weeks. So Dingler basically went from college ball to the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, with only a few weeks of game play in between. There’s 20-homer potential with above-average defense. The hit tool will be hard pressed to post .250+ batting averages. But there’s certainly everyday production here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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7. Cristian Santana, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/45 | 50 | 50/40 | 50 | 40/50 | 45 |
Background: One of the club’s big expenditures on the international free agent scene last winter. Santana, touted as a Top 15 prospect by MLB.com, agreed to a deal worth a hefty $2.95 million bonus in January. The 6-foot, 165-pound infielder made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League in the ensuing months, slugging .269/.421/.520 with 12 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and 12 stolen bases in 19 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Santana’s overall production was a staggering 61% better the league average – a stellar showing in the offensive-friendly foreign rookie league.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- There were 51 hitters that made at least 200 trips to the plate in the Dominican Summer League last year. Of those 51, Santana’s 161 wRC+ ranks as the third best showing – and tops for any player under the age of 18.
- His Isolated Power, .251, bested the league, as well.
Short, quick, compact swing with above-average power potential. Santana showed a bit too much swing-and-miss during his debut, fanning in more than 21% of his plate appearances. But after a strong showing as a 17-year-old, Santana’s all but punched his ticket to the states for 2022.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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8. Joey Wentz, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 45 | 45 |
Background: It seems like a lifetime ago – maybe more – that the Braves cornered the 2016 draft class market on high upside teenage arms, grabbing the likes of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller within the first 44 selections. And at one point the trio cultivated dreams of another famous group of Atlanta arms. Alas, those type of things generally don’t happen too frequently. Three years after handing Wentz a $3,050,000 bonus as the 40th overall pick the club dealt him – along with Travis Demeritte – to the Tigers for veteran reliever Shane Greene. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound southpaw spent the 2019 season splitting time between both organizations’ Double-A affiliates and would eventually undergo Tommy John surgery in mid-March a year later. The big southpaw returned to action last season, making five starts with Lakeland before being promoted back up to Double-A. In total, Wentz made 18 starts, throwing 72.0 innings with 82 punch outs, 41 walks, and a 4.50 ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: At times he looks like a solid #4-type arm. And at other times he’s looks like an up-and-down arm. I’d really like to see Wentz throw his fantastic changeup more frequently.
Scouting Report: As expected, Wentz was a bit rusty as he came back from elbow surgery: he allowed 21 earned runs across his first 29.2 innings. But he began to right the ship in mid-July and finished on a positive note: he posted a 3.19 ERA with a 51-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his final 42.1 innings. He’s never been a flamethrower and his command has generally been slightly below-average. But Wentz (A) is left-handed, (B) has two above-average secondary weapons, and (C) owns a high draft pedigree. He still hasn’t distinguished himself from a backend starting pitcher or an up-and-down arm. There’s a lot of Logan Allen vibes going on here.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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9. Ryan Kreidler, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: UCLA has churned out an impressive number of shortstops throughout the years – 25 of them, to be exact. But only four of them eventually made it to the big leagues, with just one – Brandon Crawford – becoming an above-average regular. Only two of the school’s shortstops – Matt McLain and Kevin Kramer – were taken earlier than the Tigers’ selection of Ryan Kreidler. Selected in the fourth round, 112th overall, three years ago, the 6-foot-4, 208-pound infielder made the leap from short-season ball in 2019 all the way to Double-A – and eventually Triple-A – last season. In 129 combined games, Kreidler batted a rock solid .270/.349/.454 with 23 doubles, 22 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 18%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five players met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 100 to 110 wRC+ total, a strikeout rate between 28% and 30%, and a walk rate between 8% and 11%. Those five hitters: Kyle Lewis, Jose Siri, J.J. Matijevic, Matthew den Dekker, and – of course – Ryan Kreidler.
Kreidler quietly put together one of the better offensive campaigns in the Tigers’ farm system last year. After a slow (read: adjustment period) start to the year, which is expected given the leap from short-season all the way up to Double-A, Kreidler slugged a healthy .290/.368/.485 with a 27.7% punch out rate. A little bit of speed and enough glove to stay at shortstop. Kreidler looks like a competent low-end starting option.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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10. Gage Workman, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 45/50 | 60 | 50 | 50+ | 45 |
Background: Originally taken by the Brewers in the 14th round coming out of Basha High School. Workman, instead, opted for the college route and improved his draft status by 10 rounds. A career .298/.372/.496 hitter for Pac12 powerhouse Arizona State, Detroit selected the 6-foot-3, 202-pound switch-hitter with the 102nd overall pick, signing him to a deal worth $1 million. Workman made his professional debut in 2021, hitting an aggregate .246/.326/.434 with 37 doubles, six triples, and 12 homeruns. He also swiped 31 bags in 39 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 6%.
Scouting Report: A younger version of fellow Pac12 counterpart – and organizational mate – Ryan Kreidler. Workman flashes a decent power / speed combination with a good glove at shortstop. The problem, though, is his below-average hit tool and problematic swing-and-miss numbers; he fanned in 30.1% of his plate appearances last season. He’s four-fifths the way to an above-average big league shortstop. The lacking skill, the hit tool, is pretty damning though. If he can maintain some above-average defensive metrics he may be able to carve out a low end starting gig. One final note: Workman’s batted ball data was pretty solid last season, posting an average exit velocity of 91 mph with a peak of 109 mph.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
