Dennis Green went viral before the term even existed. In the early – or earlier – days of the internet, the longtime NFL Head Coach, then with the Arizona Cardinals, suffered a humiliating defeat to the Bears way back in 2006. Green’s squad, sporting a 1-4 record at the time, owned a 20-0 lead at halftime (and 23-10 with less than 5:30 minutes remaining) and somehow found a way to lose to Chicago.
During his post-game presser, Green went ballistic as he yelled – multiple times – “They are who we thought they were!”
It’s become a part of the game’s lore, an unforgettable rant highlighted by that exceptionally imperfect phrase. “They are who we thought they were!”
Elijah Green (no relation to Dennis Green, I think) is just 29 games into his professional career – one that began as a much ballyhooed fifth overall pick two years ago – and he, too, is proving to be exactly who we thought he’d be.
Heading into the 2022 draft, I wrote the following:
“As a junior, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound outfielder struck out 34 times in just 98 plate appearances – or nearly 35% of the time. [In 2022], he improved that horrific total to a still-concerning 20%. That seems like an awful lot for a potential top prospect.”
After the Nationals signed him to a massive $6.5 million deal, Green promptly shredded the Florida Complex League by slugging .302/.404/.535 through 12 games. The problem, of course, is that he whiffed 21 times (against six free passes). Undeterred by the windstorm swirling about, the front office sent the tools-laden dynamo up to the Carolina League at the start of this season.
And the early returns are even more concerning.
Through his first 77 plate appearances, Green’s punched out a whopping 37 times – roughly 48% of the time. But that’s only half the problem. In his 19 games, he’s struck out at least three times nine times. He’s struck out twice another three times. And only twice has he not whiffed in a game – a four-plate appearance outing against Fayetteville (04/15/2023) and a one-plate appearance stint a week later.
And if Green doesn’t start to turn things around quickly, the future – at least through a historical lens – isn’t all that rosy.
Since 2006, there have been eight instances in which a 19-year-old hitter posted a strikeout rate of 35% or greater in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA) with one organization. Only one of those 11 would go on to big league success – none other than Joey Gallo, who (A) showcased tremendous power and fanned “just” 37% of the time during his stint in Low-A. The highest K-rate for any 19-year-old hitter with 350 PA is 38.7% (Carlos Rincon).
Here’s a quick comparison. Granted, Green less than 100 PA into his stint in Low-A.
| Name | Season | Level | Age | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | wRC+ |
| Joey Gallo | 2013 | A | 19 | 446 | 0.245 | 0.334 | 0.610 | 10.8% | 37.0% | 163 |
| Elijah Green | 2022 | A | 19 | 77 | 0.250 | 0.338 | 0.397 | 10.4% | 48.1% | 108 |
In order for Green to fan “just” 38% of the time in Low-A, he would have to strike out 96 times over his next 273 PA – or roughly 35%. It sounds completely reasonable, but he hasn’t shown any evidence that it’s actually achievable. And even if he does get down in that neighborhood, it’s still a long shot for him to develop into a meaningful big leaguer – at least through a historical lens.
