Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. James Wood, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 70 |
Background: Faced with the possibility of losing future Hall of Famer Juan Soto to free agency in a couple seasons, the ball club did the seemingly impossible. They traded this generation’s version of Ted Williams. A task that will always be viewed as a complete failure unless the front office somehow adds multiple All-Stars in the process. And they may have actually done that. Last August Washington dealt away their franchise cornerstone, the one who helped absorb the loss of countless stars like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, to the Padres. The specifics of the deal: The Nats acquired southpaw MacKenzie Gore, first baseman Luke Voit, shortstop C.J. Abrams, outfielders Robert Hassell and James Wood, and pitcher Jarlin Susana for Soto and first baseman Josh Bell. Taken in the second round out of baseball hotbed IMG Academy two years ago, Wood immediately impressed during his 26-game tenure in the Complex League that summer, bashing .372/.465/.535 with five doubles, three homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (without getting caught). And despite a few red flags during his debut, like a whiff rate north of 30%, Wood put together a breathtakingly awesome campaign between both organizations’ Low-A affiliates. Even some knee and wrist injuries, which limited to him to 76 games with Lake Elsinore and Fredericksburg, weren’t enough to cool his bat. The 6-foot-7, 240-pound centerfielder mashed an aggregate .313/.420/.536 with 27 doubles, 12 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 25 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by a whopping 50%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): 145 to 155 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 18% to 24%. Those three hitters: Corey Seager, Ji-hwan Bae, and – of course – James Wood.
There aren’t too many prospects that can be slapped with the true five-tool label. Wood, though, is one of them. The 6-foot-7, 240-pound prospect runs like a gazelle, belts long balls like a perennial homerun leader, showed an impressive feel for the strike zone while chewing off considerable percentage points from his K-rate, has the chops to stick in centerfield, though he may outgrow the position as he continues to fill out. And the lefty-swinging Wood was equally dominant against right-handers and left-handers. Plus-plus bat speed with 70-grade raw power to all fields. He’s going to be a star as long as he’s making consistent contact, which he showed he can in 2022. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .300/.400/.600 with 40 homeruns.
Ceiling: 6.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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2. Brady House, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/55 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Going back to the days of the old Montreal Expos, the franchise has drafted just 11 shortstops in the opening round. Of those 11, ten of them were taken from the high school ranks. And the only outlier, Glen Franklin, was taken from JuCo Chipola College. The club’s latest first round shortstop: Brady House, the 11th overall pick two years ago. A product of Winder-Barrow High School, House was part of the memorable first round that included 11 total shortstops, including nine prepsters. After a successful debut in the Complex League, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound middle infielder spent the 2022 season squaring off against the Carolina League competition. An undisclosed injury limited him to just 45 games. He batted .278/.356/.375 with eight doubles, three homeruns, and a stolen base – just for good measure. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 8%. House owns a .289/.366/.426 career slash line through his first 61 games.
Scouting Report: The concerns about the hit tool started to come to fruition last season as his swing-and-miss rate spiked up to nearly 30%. Even more alarming are his numbers over his final 40 games: he whiffed 40 times in only 113 plate appearances. House seemed to be battling some type of injury woe over that duration. He started the year out by slugging .364/.444/.494 with just 19 punch outs across his first 90 appearances. House to poised for a solid rebound and potentially a breakout candidate.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Cade Cavalli, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 45 | 60 |
Background: TheNationals have drafted a surprising amount of pitching over the past decade or so, including: Stephen Strasburg (duh), Drew Storen, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Jesus Luzardo, and Dane Dunning. Right-hander Cade Cavalli is poised to be the next hurler to add his name to the list (as is Cole Henry – maybe). Taken with the 22nd overall pick three years ago, Cavalli was an unhittable whirlwind during his COVID-abbreviated 2020 season at Oklahoma: 23.2 innings pitched, 37 strikeouts, and just five free passes. Cavalli, a former two-way player with the Sooners, would blitz through three levels during his professional debut two years ago, throwing 123.1 innings with a whopping 175 strikeouts and 60 free passes with Wilmington, Harrisburg, and Rochester. Last season, the 6-foot-4, 240-pound righty made 20 starts with the Red Wings of Rochester, averaging 9.6 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.71 ERA. Washington called him for his debut at the end of August. But after one disastrous starts against the Reds, Cavalli hit the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Post-Publication Update: Cavalli will miss the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hurlers posted a 25% to 27% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage in any Triple-A league (min. 75 IP): Reynaldo Lopez, Allen Webster, and Cade Cavalli.
An arsenal that’s destined for a spot at – or, at least, near – the top of a big league rotation, the only thing that made hold Cavalli back is a spotty injury history. He dealt with a stress fracture in his precious right arm during his collegiate career, and then last season missed the last month or so with shoulder inflammation. Mid-90s fastball that hovers near plus-plus territory. Plus hammer curveball. Above-average changeup. He’ll also work in an upper-80s, above-average slider. Physically, he’s built like Jacob deGrom.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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4. Robert Hassell, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The early picks of the 2020 draft have been plagued by a lot of disappointment – which isn’t overly surprising given the pandemic’s effect on the college and high school seasons. But the Padres – seemingly – did well with their selection of Robert Hassell. The eighth overall pick that summer, Hassell was an offensive dynamo during his debut the next year. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Tennessee native dominated the Low-A competition to the tune of .323/.415/.482 and spent the last few weeks getting acclimated in High-A. The 2022 campaign was a tale of two seasons for the former first rounder. He slugged .299/.379/.467 with 19 doubles, one triple, 10 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases with the Fort Wayne TinCaps. But Hassell struggled considerably following his trade to Washington, hitting .211/.311/.237 in 10 High-A games and a paltry .222/.312/.296 in 27 games with Harrisburg. The young centerfielder finished his sophomore professional season with an aggregate .273/.357/.407 slash line with 25 doubles, one triple, 11 homeruns, and 24 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by 14%. Washington sent Hassell to the Arizona Fall League after the season, though he squeezed in just a pair of games due to a broken hamate in his right hand – an injury that can sap a hitters’ power for a while after he returns.
Scouting Report: It’s not overly concerning that Hassell’s production cratered following his organizational move. It’s likely a young player pressing to make a good impression with his new team. But there are some red flags that popped up last season, though. Mainly, his struggles against left-handers; he batted a lowly .235/.333/.314 against them (as compared to a .285/.364/.434 production line vs. right-handers). Even more concerning were his contact rates: he fanned in nearly 37% plate appearances against southpaws and just 17.7% time against right-handers. Hassell continues to take a spray-it-around-the-diamond approach at the plate. Above-average power to the pull side. Above-average speed and leatherwork in centerfield. There’s borderline All-Star potential, but he needs to be able to hit lefties (which he did in 2021).
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate toHigh
MLB ETA: 2024
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5. Elijah Green, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/40 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: IMG Academy has an interesting backstory. It was originally the Nick Bollettieri Tennis Academy, which opened all the way back in 1978. Less than a decade later IMG would purchase the tennis coach’s school and would slowly add athletic programs under their brand. Baseball, along with soccer, would eventually be added in 1994. From there it took another 11 seasons before the one the members would be drafted from their Florida-based campus. And, for the most part, IMG Academy had very little sway in the sport for nearly another decade – though they would eventually send the likes of Paolo Espino, Tyler Pastornicky, and John Ryan Murphy, none of whom were drafted particularly early, the big leagues. But beginning in 2015 the school has a tremendous run of talent called in the MLB draft:
- #1. 18 total players were chosen over the previous seven years.
- #2. Of those 18, ten of them received bonuses of at least $500,000.
- #3. In 2019 and 2021, the program had 10 players draft – including one first rounder (Brennan Malone), three second rounders (Rece Hinds, Kendall Williams, and James Wood), and a third round selection (Drew Gray).
Elijah Green, the explosively talented outfielder, became the highest drafted player in school history. The son of former NFL Pro Bowler Eric Green, the top prospect slugged a scorching .462/.592/1.000 with 11 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. The younger Green was committed to the University of Miami. Washington selected him in the opening round, fifth overall, and signed him to a deal worth $6.5 million. Green mashed an impressive .302/.404/.535 with four doubles, two homeruns, and a stolen base in only 12 games in the Complex League. He finished the year with a poor 21-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft scouting report:
“Joe Mauer, a future Hall of Fame catcher, famously struck out just one time during his four-year high school career – a span that lasted 222 at bats. Paul Feiner, a digital marketer, was the pitching culprit snapped off a curveball that the Mighty Casey swung right through. Elijah Green, on the other hand, has whiffed a lot during his final two seasons. As a junior the 6-foot-3, 225-pound outfielder struck out 34 times in just 98 plate appearances – or nearly 35% of the time. Last season, he improved that horrific total to a still-concerning 20%. That seems like an awful lot for a potential top prospect. Green faced a bevy offspeed pitches during his final season and he looked vulnerable at times, particularly to slow stuff low and away. Big time power, perhaps the best in the draft class. Toolsy oozing from every pore. Plus arm, plus speed, plus power. The question: will the bat be enough to make him a consistent threat in the professional ranks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Green slide to the latter half of the first round or second, despite having the Potential Top Pick label slapped on him.”
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2026
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6. Jarlin Susana, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | N/A | 60 | 45 | 40/50 | 60 |
Background: Very few prospects had the type of whirlwind 2022 season that Susana did. San Diego signed the gargantuan right-hander to an equally large $1.7 million deal last January. Less than seven months later the Friars shipped off the teenager as a key cog in the Juan Soto mega deal. His entire stint in the Padres’ farm system lasted all of eight Complex League starts. But he clearly made quite the impression. He tossed 29.1 innings with 44 punch outs and just 11 free passes in his eight games. Following the trade all the way across the country, Washington sent the 6-foot-6, 235-pound righty down to the Complex League for another pair of starts before pushing him up to full season action for three final games. Overall, Susana hurled 45.0 innings of work, recording 66 punch outs and 20 free passes to go along with an aggregate 2.40 ERA. For those counting at home: he averaged 13.2 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings during his debut.
Scouting Report: My new favorite pitching prospect in the minor leagues. Susana is poised to become 2023’s version of Eury Pérez, who quickly became one of the game’s best pitching prospects during his dominant 2022 campaign. Susana owns one of the best fastballs in the minor leagues and one of the best MiLB heaters I’ve seen in several years. It’s a plus-plus offering sitting comfortably in the 99- to 100-mph with explosive, almost unfair late life. It touched as high as 102 mph during one of the game’s I scouted and reached 103 mph during the season. It’s easy, premium velocity, like watching Brusdar Graterol throw. His main offspeed weapon is an 86- to 91-mph slider that made the mortals in Low-A bend a knee in reverence. His low- to mid-90s changeup is firm and he struggled to command it. Reports indicated he’ll throw a curveball as well, though I never saw it. Susana adds a little bit of Johnny Cueto / Luis Tiant funk-and-twist at times in his windup. Susana’s command is solid, surprisingly so given his age, level of competition, and velocity. He needs to develop a third offering. But the ceiling is practically unlimited – as long as he can navigate his way through the injury nexus.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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7. Jake Bennett, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Oklahoma-based Bixby High School is home to a pair of well-known ballplayers: right-hander Cade Cavalli and southpaw Jake Bennett. Their time overlapped a couple years during their respective prep careers. And, of course, Cavalli was originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 29th round in 2017, but would eventually head to the University of Oklahoma and become a late-round pick by the Nationals three years later. Bennett’s path to professional ball was eerily similar. The big 6-foot-6, 234-pound lefty was originally selected by the – you’ve guessed it – the Washington Nationals in the 39th round in 2019. And after a solid three-year career at – you’ve guessed it – the University of Oklahoma, the Nationals came calling again in 2022, selecting him in the second round, 45th overall. Bennett was particularly dominant during final season with the Sooners last year. Making a career best 20 appearances, 19 of which came via the start, he posted an impressive 133-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 117.0 innings of work. He tallied a 10-4 win-loss record and a 3.69 ERA. For his career, he averaged 10.4 strikeouts and just 1.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.30 ERA. Washington signed him to a deal worth $1,734,800. Bennett did not appear in an affiliated game.
Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2015, seven Division I hurlers averaged at least 10 strikeouts and fewer than 2.0 walks per nine innings in a season (min. 105 IP): Casey Mize, Luke Heimlich, Pete Hansen, Devin Hemmerich, Miller Hogan, Tanner Hall, and – of course – Jake Bennett.
The long-limbed lefty attacks hitters with a low- to mid-90s fastball that – unsurprisingly – plays up due to his frame size. The plus offering will touch as high as 96 mph when needed. Bennett complements the offering with an average slider and an above-average changeup, that he tends to use as his go-to offspeed pitch to either lefties or righties. Bennett has a long history of filling the strike zone with quality pitches, going from his high school days through his college years and into the Cape Cod League (where he posted a 30-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28.0 innings of work). Ceiling as a #4-type arm – a la Sean Manaea with more velocity.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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8. Cole Henry, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: A prized arm coming out of Alabama-based Florence High School. Perfect Game ranked the 6-foot-4, 215-pound righty as 79th overall prospect in the country. But his firm commitment to Louisiana State University caused him to stumble in the draft – though the Tigers snagged him in the 38th round five years ago. Henry sparkled during his freshman season at LSU, stepping into the SEC powerhouse’s rotation for 11 starts (as well as three relief appearances). He recorded a dominant 72-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 58.1 innings of work. The burgeoning ace carried that momentum into a dominant start to the 2020 season as well, averaging 10.9 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings across four starts before the year prematurely ended due to the pandemic. Henry’s professional debut was interrupted by an elbow issue, but he managed to sparkle in nine appearances in High-A. Last season, yet again, he dealt with an injury – though this one forced him under the knife. Henry underwent thoracic outlet syndrome in late August. Prior to the injury, he made nine starts with Harrisburg and Rochester, throwing just 31.2 innings with 34 punch outs and 11 walks with a dazzling 1.71 ERA.
Scouting Report: Henry ticks off a lot of the important boxes for future big league success: plus 94- to 96-mph fastball with riding life, plus 80s curveball, above-average changeup, strike-thrower, athletic. But the one thing he hasn’t displayed is largely out of his control – health. Even going back to his days at LSU, Henry hasn’t made it through a full season without some sort of serious ailment, from elbow woes to COVID to a stress reaction, a second elbow issue, and now thoracic outlet syndrome. Best case scenario at this point is Rich Harden. Plenty of risk. At this point Washington has to just be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Cristhian Vaquero, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/50 | 30/55 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: The ball club has never shied away from spending big on the international market. The Mike Rizzo-led front office signed Dominican infielder Yasel Antuna to a massive $3.9 million during the summer of 2016. Roughly five years later the Nationals handed fellow infielder and countryman Armando Cruz the same seven-figure deal. The problem is that the organization has seen little return on their large investments. Antuna has been abysmal since moving into full-season ball in 2018. Cruz had a disappointing debut in the Dominican Summer League two years ago and batted an empty .275/.320/.362 in the Complex League in 2022. The front office is hoping that Cristhian Vaquero makes a larger splash. A native of La Habana, Cuba, Vaquero signed out the Dominican Republic last January for a huge $4,925,000 deal. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound switch-hitting centerfielder batted a mediocre .256/.379/.341 with just four doubles, four triples, a dinger, and 17 stolen bases (in 24 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was just 3% better than the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Plus speed that should allow him to develop into an adept base thief and an above-average defender in centerfield. A recent convert to switch-hitting, Vaquero’s swing looks more natural, fluid from the right side than the left, which looks robotic and a bit stiff. There’s above-average power potential. A lot of Vaquero’s production last summer came from his bloated walk rate (15.3%). Very, very raw. The tools are there. But it looks like he’s going to need quite a bit of developmental time.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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10. Israel Pineda, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 45 | 30 | 50 | 60 | 45 |
Background: Since their first season in 2005, the Nationals have been on this perpetual search for a long term catcher. They’ve run out decent veterans like Brian Schneider or Matt Wieters and coaxed 155 games out of Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez at the end of his career. Young homegrown candidates like Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos had have flashes of solid – and underrated – performances, but they were just that – flashes. Personally, I do think Keibert Ruiz becomes a mainstay behind plate as a batting average-driven hitter. And Israel Pineda may offer a solid Option B if Ruiz fails. A native of Maracay, Venezuela, the 5-foot-11, 188-pound backstop looked quite promising during his brief stint in the Gulf Coast League (.288/.323/.441) and his trip through the old New York-Penn League as well (.273/.341/.388). But Pineda stumbled in Low-A as a 19-year-old in 2019 and he continued to struggle in High-A two years ago (.208/.260/.389). Last season, though, the Venezuelan catcher finally found his hitting stroke again. Making stops with Wilmington, Harrisburg, and Rochester, Pineda batted .258/.325/.458 with career highs in doubles (20), homeruns (16), stolen bases (three), and he tied career high with two triples. Washington promoted Pineda up to The Show at the end of the year. He would go 1-for-13 in four games.
Scouting Report: Pineda’s breakout season came with a rather large caveat of sorts: beyond his 67-game cameo in his return to High-A, his trips through Double-A, Triple-A, and the big leagues were quite abbreviated. Meaning: the league wasn’t able to make any necessary adjustments. But let’s take a look at his work with the Blue Rocks of Wilmington. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only seven 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any High-A league (min. 250 PA): 102 to 112 wRC+, 24.5% to 26.5% strikeout rate, and a 7% to 9% walk rate. Those seven hitters: Darnell Sweeney, Anfernee Seymour, Cale Iorg, Keon Barnum, Bruce Caldwell, Dillon Persinger, and – of course – Israel Pineda.
Pineda’s true calling card has always been his work with the leather behind the plate, continually grading out as an above-average, sometimes plus, defender. And according to Baseball Prospectus’ pitch framing metrics, he’s serviceable at that as well. Anything he adds with the bat is just icing on the proverbial cake – which should be sufficient enough to push him into a low-end starting gig. 45-grade hit tool and power.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
