Dayton Moore Was Right: The Emergence of Frank Mozzicato

The draft process – in any particular sport – is filled with all kinds of twists-and-turns, overreactions, and head-scratching moves. But there have been very few picks in recent years, if any, that seemingly caught the entire industry by surprise like the Royals selection of Frank Mozzicato in 2021.

Projected mainly as a Day 2 prospect by the national pundits (Baseball America had him ranked as the 41^st overall prospect, MLB Pipeline bumped him up two spots higher, and FanGraphs’ Big Board was the most “aggressive” as they had him as the 29^th best in the class), Dayton Moore took the ultimate gamble and snagged him with the seventh overall pick.

But the club went even further than that immediately after the draft as well, tweeting out a video montage of the selection that included a small snippet of Lonnie Goldberg (Assistant GM – Amateur Scouting) proclaiming: “Well we thought, at the end of the day, he was the best left-handed pitcher in the class.”

It didn’t matter that he was going to sign a well-below slot deal worth $3.55 million, saving the club nearly $2 million to allocate elsewhere in the draft. He was – in their opinion – the best lefty in the entire class.

But the rest of the baseball world didn’t seem to agree.

Heading into the 2022 season, Mozzicato didn’t crack any of the Big Three’s Top 100 list. The Big Three being, of course, MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. It was such an oddity to see the most recent seventh overall pick not make one of those Top 100 lists that you’d have to go back all the way to 2009’s draft (Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves). Otherwise, there were eleven consecutive draft classes in which the seventh player taken was ranked as a Top 100 prospect the very next year.

And Mozzicato’s debut performance in 2022 failed to make a compelling case.

He struggled and limped his way through a command-plagued, walk-friendly campaign in Low-A, handing out 51 free passes in only 69 innings of work. His velocity was fringy, sitting in the upper 80s / low 90s when I saw him. The curveball, his true calling card, was like very few others in the minor leagues, but he just didn’t look like a recent early first rounder.

Barely a year into his professional career Frank Mozzicato looked incredibly ordinary.

Barely two years into his professional career, though, he’s making it look like Dayton Moore, Lonnie Goldberg, and the entire Royals organization knew something that no one else did.

Frank Mozzicato is emerging – hell, he’s already there in my opinion – as a Top 100 prospect.

The 6-foot-3, 175-pound lefty has been nothing short of dominant in Low-A this season: he’s fanned a whopping 34 (against 12 free passes) in 19.0 innings of work to go along with a tidy 1.42. And he managed to set the Columbia Fireflies’ single game punch out record as well, racking up 13 whiffs in only six innings of work.

I decided to chart every single pitch that Mozzicato’s thrown this year (sans a few due to poor camera angles, etc…). And here’s what I’ve seen.

• (Note: CS=Called Strike, SW=Swinging Strike, %=Percentage of that type of pitch thrown that day, CSW=Called Strike Plus Whiff, Strike %=Frequency he threw that pitch for a Strike)

Mozzicato was absurdly dominant across his first three starts, only posting two CSW rates in the average (MLB) range (about 30%). Otherwise, he was elite – particularly with the curveball. He was successfully changing speeds, throwing strikes with each offering, and generating a ton of swing-and-miss action. Not only that, though, he looked stronger. Not just with the life of his fastball, but in his physical build as well. He touched 93 mph on occasion. His curveball may be the best in the minor leagues, essentially overpowering the low level hitters. And his changeup is very solid.

Mozzicato’s last start two days ago (04/29/2023) was a clunker. He battled command issues all game. He tired and lost some zip on the heater after some long innings. For the first time this year he couldn’t command the curveball when he needed too. He also didn’t go to his changeup nearly as frequently as well. He fell in love with his fastball early and never got back on track, even after the velo sagged.

When he’s at his best – like, during his first three starts – Mozzicato looked like a potential candidate to be moved up to High-A midway through the year.

He a remarkably better version of himself in 2023. The command has to continue to take minor steps and he definitely needs to hasten his delivery to home with runners on base. I also don’t think that there’s another gear to his fastball in the coming years either. He’s very likely going to live in the 90- to 92-mph range, and peak slightly higher. Either way, though, he’s making a very compelling argument that – yes – he may be the best left-hander in the 2021 draft class.