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1. Brennen Davis, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/55 | 45/40 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: A second round pick out of Basha High School two years ago, the Cubs signed the toolsy, projectable outfielder for a slightly above-slot bonus worth $1.1 million. Davis turned in a solid debut in the Arizona Summer League, hitting a respectable .298/.431/.333 with a pair of doubles and six stolen bases in 18 games. Last season the 6-foot-4, 175-pound outfielder turned in a breakout campaign for the South Bend Cubs in the Midwest League – despite succumbing to a litany of hand injuries. He was hit on the hand not once, but twice – during the same homestand in mid-July while attempting to drop a bunt down. And then a few weeks later his season ended prematurely because he was hit on the hand by a pitch. That’s not counting his late start to the year too! In all, the Arizona native slugged an impressive .305/.381/.525 with nine doubles, three triples, and eight homeruns in 50 games. He also swiped four bags in five attempts. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by a whopping 55%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to post at least a 150 DRC+ with a sub-20% strikeout percentage and a single-digit walk percentage in the Midwest League (min. 200 PA): Royce Lewis, Bo Bichette, Luis Arraez, Oscar Taveras, Elehuris Montero, and – of course – Brennen Davis.
For those counting at home that’s: three former widely regarded top prospects (Bichette, Taveras, who was taken tragically after briefly reaching the big leagues, and Lewis), a guy hit just slugged .334/.399/.439 during his rookie season (Arraez), and Montero, a personal favorite of mine that struggled through a lost, injury-plagued season in Class AA as a 20-year-old. As for Davis, he has the potential to be a special, special talent: blossoming power that should settle in as an above-average weapon, above-average hit tool, solid speed, a decent glove, phenomenal contact rates, and a willingness to walk a bit.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Brailyn Marquez, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | 55 | 50 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: The Cubs have had a lot of trouble developing young arms over the past several seasons. Oscar De La Cruz can’t stay healthy; Duane Underwood Jr. couldn’t hack in the rotation; Bryan Hudson’s development simply never happened; and Adbert Alzolay, with a tremendous amount of potential, just can’t seem to put it all together. Enter: Brailyn Marquez, a big, projectable, flame-throwing, thunderbolt-slinging southpaw. Hailing from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Marquez turned a lot of heads last summer as his heater touched a scorching 102 mph out as a starting pitcher. The 6-foot-4,185-pound left-hander began showing serious potential during his stint in the Arizona Summer League three years ago when he posted a 52-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 44.0 innings as an 18-year-old. He followed that up with 12 starts strong starts between Eugene and South Bend the following season; he fanned 59 and walked 16 in 54.2 innings. Last season the then-20-year-old opened the year up with 17 starts back in the Midwest League before capping up his finest season to date with a five-game cameo in the Carolina League. In total, he tossed 103.2 innings with 128 strikeouts and 50 walks to go along with an aggregate 3.13 ERA.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Big time fastball that explodes through the zone thanks to his whip-like long arms. Marquez’s heat sits comfortably in the 94- to 96-mph range and can reach upwards of triple-digits when needed. His secondary offerings, though, remain incredibly raw – like an open wound. Marquez’s curveball is slow and lacks depth and looks slider-esque in movement at times.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old pitchers to post at least a 29% strikeout percentage and a double-digit walk percentage in the Midwest League (min. 75 IP): Sandy Alcantara, Keyvius Sampson, Hector Yan, Fabio Martinez Mesa, Alexander Smit, Robinson Pina, and – of course – Brailyn Marquez.
Obviously, it’s a less than stellar collection of arms, the best being Marlins All-Star fireballer Sandy Alcantara, who also owns a plus-plus-fastball and some decent, not great, offspeed options. The good news for Marquez: his curveball looked consistent last season and his changeup progressed as well. The potential is there to be one of the game’s premier southpaws, but more work has to be done. As Major League Baseball and their organizations continue to buy into the pitch design / pitch development by Driveline Baseball and the like, the odds of Marquez taking that elite step forward increase dramatically.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021/2022
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3. Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45 | 40 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: “Chicago has, in essence, stacked the odds of player development in their favor by going with the group of prospects that holds the least amount of risk: hitters.” – The Chicago Cubs: The Right Way to Rebuild, The 2014 Prospect Digest Annual. In my very first prospect book I opined that the Cubs were going about their rebuilding process the way all teams should: corner the market on impact hitters early in the draft and then when those hitters begin to produce at the big league level the front office should use the free agent market and / or the farm system to fill in the gaps with veteran pitchers. The Cubs were highly successful developing or trading for young offensive-minded prospects like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora and, to a lesser extent, Addison Russell and Ian Happ. But here’s the thing with that plan: it worked – astoundingly well. And then they deviated from it for a few seasons. The ballclub didn’t own a first or second round pick in 2016, and then they snagged right-hander Tom Hatch in the third round. In 2017 they snagged southpaw Brendon Little with the 27th overall pick and Alex Lange three picks later. And then promptly doubled down on the arms and drafted Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, and Erich Uelmen over the next three rounds. Finally, in 2018 the Cubs got back to what they do best: drafting and developing hitters. They snagged Hoerner, Brennan Davis, and Cole Roederer. Hoerner, the 24th overall pick out of Stanford University, rocketed through the Cubs’ minor league system, appearing at three different levels during his debut and then splitting time between Chicago and Class AA last season. The 5-foot-11, 200-pound shortstop batted .284/.344/.399 with 16 doubles, three triples, and three homeruns with Tennessee. His overall production according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 4%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: If Hoerner’s defense grades out as above-average – which it quite possibly will – he has a chance to develop into a fringy starting shortstop. He makes consistent contact and doesn’t swing-and-miss often. The walk rate is average, at best. And his power likely falls into the below-average territory. In terms of big league ceiling, think Adeiny Hechavarria circa 2015 (.281/.315/.374).
Scouting Report: I’ve never been particularly high on the former Stanford Cardinal. In large part due to his alma mater and the dreaded Stanford Swing. But the Cubs are exactly the type of organization that can capitalize on a young hitter’s offensive ceiling. Hoerner’s far from a finished product. The bat has a chance to be an above-average tool, but it hasn’t been nearly as productive as hoped. His overall production was roughly league average in Class AA. And the batted ball data was mediocre, at best, during his 20-game cameo in Chicago. And the power is still below-average as well; he’s slugged just eight homeruns since the start of his junior season in college. Defensively, he’s average. With respect to his work in Class AA last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post a 100 to 110 DRC+ with a sub-8.5% walk rate and a punch out rate below 15% (min. 275 PA): Dawel Lugo, Mauricio Dubon, Willie Cabrera, Ozzie Martinez, and Nico Hoerner.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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4. Miguel Amaya, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 55 | 30 | 60 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: A saber-slanted backstop performing well above the league average threshold over the past couple of seasons. Amaya, a 6-foot-1, 185-pound prospect out of Chitre, Panama, opened a lot of eyes after a strong showing in the Midwest League two years ago; he batted .256/.349/.403 with 21 doubles, a pair of triples, and 12 homeruns in 116 games as a 19-year-old. The front office bounced the promising catcher up to the Carolina League where he – once again – was one of the youngest everyday players. Amaya hit .235/.351/.402 with a career best 24 doubles and 11 homeruns. He also swiped a pair of bags. His overall production, per Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a surprising 24%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Amaya actually got off to a strong start to the year, slugging .284/.352/.484 over his first 78 games but cobbled together a pathetic .192/.342/.216 line over his final 38 contests – which isn’t surprising given his (A) age, (B) level of competition, and (C) defensive position. Chicago also develops hitters better than many other organizations as well. Amaya’s typically been an above-average defensive backstop. Throw in 20-homer potential, patience at the plate, strong contact skills, and age relative to level of competition and there’s a lot to like. I’m betting on the first 78 games, rather the entire season.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 120 and 130 with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate below 20% in any High Class A league (min. 300 PA): Jorge Polanco, Delino DeShields Jr., Lucius Fox, and Miguel Amaya.
The bat still has ways to go but the secondary skills remain incredibly promising: above-average power, elite walk rates, and – surprisingly – consistently well-above-average contact rates, all wrapped up at the premium position on the diamond. Defensively, he remains raw – and had a bit of down year behind the dish last season – but he should have no problem sticking behind the plate. He may not be a star, but he has the potential to be an above-average starter at the big league level.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Chase Strumpf, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50/55 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Quite the notable player prior to his illustrious career at UCLA. Strumpf, a 6-foot-1, 191-pound middle infielder, helped the 15U Team USA win Gold. That in itself is impressive enough. But consider this: the eventual early round draft selection committed to the Bruins prior to playing a single game at San Juan Capistrano JSerra High School. The California native struggled a bit during his first season with the PAC12 school: he batted just .239/.315/.399 with nine doubles and seven homeruns. Strumpf had a massive breakout campaign the following year, slugging .363/.475/.633 with 23 doubles, one triple, and 12 homeruns with a pair of stolen bases. Last season Strumpf’s numbers took a bit of downturn as he hit .279/.416/.472 with 14 doubles, a pair of triples, and nine homeruns. Chicago snagged him in the second round, 64th overall. Strumpf hit a combined .244/.374/.400 with 12 doubles and three homeruns between three low level leagues.
Scouting Report: A patient hitter, who left college with a career walk rate of nearly 14.5%, continued to work the count well as he transitioned into professional ball; he posted a 13.45% walk rate during his debut. Solid-average power that could develop into a perennial 20-homer threat down the road. Strumpf’s college strikeout rate is a bit high for an early round pick (20.5%), and that number was close to red flag territory during his debut (24.6%). With respect to his production in college during his sophomore season, his best amateur showing, consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2018, here’s the list of PAC12 hitters to slug at least .350/.450/.600 in a season (min. 250 PA): Adley Rutschman, the top pick in the draft last season, Andrew Vaughn, who was taken two picks later last June, and – of course – Chase Strumpf, who the Cubs happily snagged him in the second round.
If the Cubs can unlock his production from two years ago, Strumpf could prove to be a tremendous value.
Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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6. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 50 |
Background: After a long eight years in the Cubs’ organization Alzolay, a 6-foot, 179-pound right-hander, finally reached the pinnacle of professional baseball, reaching the big leagues for a brief four-game cameo last season. A native of Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela, Alzolay’s 2019 season got off to a late start and later dealt with what was described as “slight biceps soreness” according to reports. The hard-throwing righty would eventually make a total of 15 starts with Iowa in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, throwing just 65.1 innings with a staggering 91 strikeouts and 31 walks. He compiled a 4.41 ERA and an impressive 2.70 Deserved Runs Average (DRA). During his two short stints with Chicago Alzolay fanned 13 and walked nine in 12.1 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Watching the 6-foot, 179-pound right-hander pitch, one would guess he’d be in line for a punch out per inning based on pure stuff. His riding fastball sits 93 to 95 mph with ease. His snapdragon of a curveball has wicked 12-6 bite. And his changeup is at least an average offering. But Alzolay’s never truly dominated at any level – even though most of the time he’s been a touch old. His arrow’s been trending upward for the past 18 or so months. Right now, he looks like a #4-type arm.
Scouting Report: For the first time since 2014 Alzolay’s minor league strikeout rate surpassed a punch out per inning. And he was incredibly dominant as well. Unfortunately, though, Alzolay’s control / command wavered after his first call up to Chicago; he walked just six hitters across his first six starts in Class AAA and then handed out a whopping 25 free passes in 33.1 innings. The repertoire still screams dominant big league starting pitcher: mid-90s fastball, an 80 mph, late breaking curveball that average more than 3,000 RPMs during his debut; and a mid-80s changeup. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 24-year-old pitchers fanned at least 30% of the hitters they faced in the Pacific Coast League (min. 50 IP): Brian Moran, Conner Menez, Josh Staumont, Jose Urquidy, and Adbert Alzolay.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see a solid #3 starting pitcher, but there’s the risk if his control / command doesn’t rebound.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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7. Ronnie Quintero, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/55 | 45/55 | 30 | N/A | 50 | 50 |
Background: Widely regarded as the best catching prospect on the international scene last summer, the Cubs – who certainly agreed – broke the proverbial bank and signed the teenager to a hefty $2.9 million deal, surpassing the organization’s previous high water mark given to former top prospect Eloy Jimenez ($2.8 million). Hailing from Venezuela, Quintero stands a wiry 6-foot and 175-pounds and offers up an smooth left-handed swing from a premium position. Chicago aggressively assigned Jimenez to the Arizona Summer League for his debut season 2014. And it’s likely that Quintero, another advanced stick, follows the same path.
Scouting Report: Strong, accurate arm behind the plate with solid footwork. Quintero shows a silky smooth left-handed swing with gobs of power. There’s limited video of Quintero, but what I’ve seen has been quite promising. His swing is reminiscent of Robinson Cano, though with a larger, more emphasized leg kick. Above-average or better bat speed. Big time pull power to right field.
Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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8. Ryan Jensen, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 55/60 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: One of the bigger pop-up guys in the draft class last June. Jensen, a squat, strong right-hander out of Fresno State, was largely mediocre during his first two collegiate seasons. Making 29 appearances, only one of which was a start, as a true freshman, the California native tossed 43.2 innings with 35 strikeouts and a whopping 36 walks to go along with a horrific 6.60 ERA. The coaching staff transitioned the 6-foot, 180-pound righty into a bit of a swing-man during his sophomore season as he made seven relief appearances and 11 starts, averaging 8.8 strikeouts and nearly five walks per nine innings. Last season, though, Jensen seemingly put it all together for the Mountain West Conference school: making a career high 15 starts – as well as one lone relief appearance – he tossed an even 100 innings with an dominating 107-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chicago drafted him in the opening round, 27th overall, and sent him to the Northwest League for six brief appearances (12.0 IP, 19 K, 14 BB).
Scouting Report: Wildly different from the arms the club has zeroed in on in the early parts of the draft over the last several years; Jensen’s a let-‘er-rip type of pitcher. Armed with a plus-plus-fastball and an above-average slider, he challenges hitters early and often in a “I dare you to hit it” mentality. The changeup is fringy average and needs some work. He has bouts of wildness and I’m far from convinced that he’ll remain the type of strike thrower he showed during his junior campaign moving forward. And he may wind up as a fastball/slider type reliever. With respect to his work in college last season consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2018, only seven Mountain West Conference pitchers averaged at least nine strikeouts and fewer than three walks per nine innings (min. 75 IP): Erick Fedde, Ben Bertelson, Bubba Derby, Edgar Gonzalez, Gera Sanchez, Tyler Stevens, and Kyle Winkler.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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9. Cory Abbott, RHP
| FB | CB | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A second round in 2017 that was sandwiched in between more than a handful of players that would become legitimate big league prospects like Rangers right-hander Hans Crouse, Arizona’s backstop-of-the-future Dalton Varsho, the Indians’ heir apparent at shortstop Tyler Freeman, and Orioles southpaw Zac Lowther; Abbott – nonetheless – turned in his finest professional season to date. Making a career best 26 starts with the Tennessee Smokies in the Southern League, the stocky 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander tossed 146.2 with an impressive 166 punch outs and just 52 walks. He finished the year with a solid 3.01 ERA and a mediocre 4.19 DRA.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: His strikeout percentages last season – 30.8% in the Midwest League and 26.2% in the Carolina League – are deceiving as he was feasting off of inferior hitters. It’ll likely settle around the league average mark as he jumps into Class AA and above. He’s a safe, fast moving backend option. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Scouting Report: Well, I was wrong. Not only was his strikeout percentage not deceiving but it actually ticked up a bit – 27.8% – as he jumped up to the minors’ most challenging level. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage of at least 27% in the Southern League (min. 100 IP): Tucker Davidson, Brandon Woodruff, and Cory Abbott.
That’s a solid duo of arms to line up with – except, well, Abbott doesn’t really belong in the group. Davidson and Woodruff both own plus- or better fastballs. Abbott, on the other hand, gets by using his solid four-pitch mix, changing speeds and eye levels. His fastball is average, nothing to write home about. His cutter is an equalizer for him and his go-to weapon; it’s a 55-grade, maybe a touch better. His curveball adds a second above-average weapon. And the changeup is solid-average. The production is far better than the individual pieces. But it’s still incredibly dominant numbers. Abbott looks like a backend arm, though he likely doesn’t get to long of a leash in Chicago.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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10. Alfonso Rivas, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 35/50 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 45 |
Background: A fourth round pick out of the University of Arizona two years ago, Rivas left the Wildcats as a career .325/.418/.472 hitter, belting out 37 doubles, five triples, and 15 homeruns in 172 total games. Rivas, the 113th overall player chosen that year, continued to produce as he moved into the New York-Penn League during his debut, batting .285/.397/.383 with 16 doubles, one triple, and one homerun. Last season the front office bumped the 6-foot, 188-pound first baseman up to High Class A. And he handled the aggressive promotion with aplomb. In 114 games with the Stockton Ports, the California native slugged .283/.383/.408 with 24 doubles, three triples, and eight homeruns. As measured by Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 35%.
Scouting Report: Not all that different from Pavin Smith, the player chosen directly after Austin Beck in the opening round of the 2017 draft. Rivas is an advanced, “professional hitter” with a solid pedigree, tremendous patience, and very little, though improving, power. Rivas puts the ball on the ground too frequently, like Sheldon Neuse’s former approach, so I’d expect the A’s to rework his swing to generate more loft. The overall power may never top 15- or 18-homeruns, but the hit tool, patience, and glove should be enough to push him toward league average starting caliber potential. Maybe.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
