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1. Adley Rutschman, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 70 |
Background: A do-everything-type of athlete cut from the same cloth as former big league All-Star – and stout University of Nebraska punter – Darin Erstad. Rutschman, like Erstad, spent some time on the gridiron for Oregon State; he was a placekicker – and actually recorded a couple tackles – during his freshman season in 2016. A native of Portland, Oregon, the Seattle Mariners snagged the switch-hitting catcher in the late, late rounds in the June draft following a superb career at Sherwood High School; Rutschman was rated the second best prep prospect in the state by Baseball Northwest. Following the conclusion of his lone collegiate football campaign, the 6-foot-2, 216-pound backstop earned the starting gig behind the dish for long-time Manager Pat Casey, hitting .234/.322/.306 with 10 extra-base hits (seven doubles, one triple, and a pair of long balls) in 61 games of work. Rutschman spent the ensuing summer playing for the Corvallis Knights in the West Coast League, batting .256/.256/.308 with a pair of doubles in 39 plate appearances. The switch bopper turned in – arguably – the biggest breakout campaign of the year as he led Oregon State to a National Championship in 2018: in 67 games for the Pac-12 powerhouse, Rutschman slugged a robust .408/.505/.628 with 22 doubles, three triples, and nine homeruns; he finished his sophomore campaign with a stout 40-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio as well. And, of course, the Portland-native earned a bevy of awards and recognitions, including:
- College World Series Most Outstanding Player
- First-Team All-America by D1Baseball and ABCA
- Second-Team All-America by Baseball America and Perfect Game
- Third-Team All-America by NCBWA and Collegiate Baseball
- All-Pac-12 First Team, Pac-12 All-Defensive Team, Pac-12 All-Academic Honorable Mention
- Semifinalist for the Dick Howser Trophy and Johnny Bench Award
Rutschman continued to swing a scorching bat for Team USA that summer as well, putting together a team-leading .355/.432/.516 triple-slash line to go along with five doubles and a 5-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31 at bats. Last season Rutschman raised the bar even further, putting up videogame-esque numbers: in 57 games, he slugged .411/.575/.751 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 7 homeruns. Baltimore made the easy decision and selected the uber-prospect with the #1 overall pick in June. Rutschman split his debut between three levels, hitting a respectable .254/.351/.423 with eight doubles, one triple, and four homeruns.
Scouting Report: My pre-draft analysis for Rutschman:
“The obvious front runner for the top pick in the June draft. Between 2000 and 2010 nearly 10% of all Team USA hitters had at least one season in which they topped five wins above replacement (FanGraphs version). And Rutschman ticks off a lot of important checkboxes: elite plate discipline, above-average power potential, above-average hit tool, and some strong defensive chops – which includes smooth footwork and a strong arm behind the plate With respect to his offensive work thus far in 2019, consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2018, only two Division I hitters have posted a walk rate north of 25% in a season (min. 200 PA): Anthony Rendon, the sixth overall pick in the 2011 draft, and Zack Collins, the tenth pick in 2016.
- Rendon, though, finished the year with a strikeout rate below 15%.
Let’s continue:
| Player | Age | Year | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% |
| Adley Rutschman | 21 | 2019 | 198 | 0.429 | 0.576 | 0.800 | 27.27% | 14.14% |
| Anthony Rendon | 21 | 2011 | 302 | 0.327 | 0.520 | 0.523 | 26.49% | 10.93% |
Obviously, Rutschman’s production dwarf’s his counterpart’s numbers, though in a smaller sample size. Rutschman shows a smooth, easy swing without much effort that generates above-average bat speed. There’s no such thing as a lock for superstardom when it comes to prospects, but Rutschman looks like a strong possibility to get there.”
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021/2022
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2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 55 | 65 | 55 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: A product of Central Heights High School, home to former Indians second round pick Trey Haley, Rodriguez was nearly unhittable during his junior campaign; he went a whopping 14-1 during the 2017 season, posting a barely-there 0.38 ERA, and was named Texas Sports Writers Association Player of the Year. His draft stock rocketed up during his final prep season as he fastball climbed – comfortably – into the mid- to upper-90s. Baltimore snagged the broad-shouldered right-hander in the opening round, 11th overall, in 2018. After dominating the Gulf Coast League in a couple of brief outings during his debut, Rodriguez continued wreak havoc on the opposition as he moved up to full-season action in 2019. In 20 starts with the Delmarva Shorebirds, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-hander fanned an incredible 129 – against just36 free passes – in only 94.0 innings of work. He finished the year with a 2.68 ERA and a nearly identical 2.69 DRA (Deserved Runs Average).
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: The well-built righty showcases a standard four-pitch mix: an electric, plus-fastball with some arm side movement; a 12-6 curveball, a slider, and a changeup. Both of Rodriguez’s breaking pitches flash above-average but need further refinement as they tend to float on occasion and remain quite raw. His fastball reportedly touched 98 heading into the spring. And his changeup is thrown with a split-finger grip. His breaking pitches seem a bit rawer than I would have expected for an early first round pick.
Scouting Report: First off: Ranked as the club’s seventh best prospect heading into the year, I clearly underrated Rodriguez’s potential. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, Rodriguez’s 2.69 DRA is seventh best mark among all 19-year-old pitchers in either Low Class A league (min. 75 IP), trailing only Joey Cantillo, Will Inman, Jose Fernandez, Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, and Jen-Ho Tseng.
There are more than a few impressive names sprinkled among the group. Three would go on to become viable stars (Fernandez, Giolito, and Glasnow), another is a former top prospect (Inman), and a fifth, Cantillo, is currently rocketing up prospect charts. So let’s look at Rodriguez’s dominance another way:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old pitchers to fan at least a third of the hitters they faced in Low Class A (min. 75 IP): Jose Fernandez, Tyler Glasnow, Joey Cantillo, and – of course – Grayson Rodriguez. The Orioles budding ace, by the way, owns the second best strikeout percentage for 19-year-olds in the South Atlantic League since 2006.
Rodriguez is physically reminiscent of former MLB All-Star – albeit enigmatic – right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez: long arms, shoulders that look like that could bear the load of a highway overpass, and tree-trunk legs. The former 11th overall pick owns a wipeout arsenal as his secondary weapons are improved: his fastball was sitting in upper-90s late year; his slider was so overpowering at times it was comically unfair, the changeup shows impressive deception, and the curveball is quietly an above-average offering. There’s no question about it: he’s an ace-in-the-making and there are few – if any – minor league pitchers I would taken over Rodriguez.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Yusniel Diaz, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: In one the final acts as General Manager of the Orioles, Dan Duquette was tasked with dealing superstar – and hometown icon – Manny Machado as the trade deadline approached. Duquette did as well as anyone could have in the same situation, acquiring a bevy of prospects – Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Rylan Bannon, and Breyvic Valera – for a couple months of Machado. Diaz, obviously, was the major “get” in the deal for Baltimore. A sweet-swinging corner outfielder with gobs of potential that could become the next face of the franchise; he clearly felt the pressure of the deal and looked overwhelmed in 38 Class AA games in the Orioles’ system. Last season Diaz, an athletic 6-foot-2, 195-pound import from La Habana, Cuba, battled a couple lower body injuries – a strained hamstring and a quadriceps issues – that limited him to just 76 Eastern League games (as well as a handful of rehab appearances). He batted a respectable .262/.335/.472 with 19 doubles, four triples, and 11 homeruns during his stint with Bowie.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Plus hit tool, above-average power and speed (though he’s an atrocious base runner), incredible eye at the plate with strong bat-to-ball skills, and he plays a competent center and right fields. If the power takes another step forward Diaz could be a perennial MVP candidate.
Scouting Report: It wasn’t necessarily a lost year for Diaz in 2019, but it’s tough to remain productive with a pair of lengthy disabled stints on the docket. But, surprisingly, Diaz remained one of the most potent bats in Class AA in 2019, topping the league average a mark by a whopping 50%. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been three 22-year-old hitters to post a 145- to 150-DRC+ with an average walk rate (7% to 10%) to go along with a 17% to 22% strikeout rate in the Eastern League (min. 300 PA): Travis d’Arnaud, Brandon Laird, and Yusniel Diaz. d’Arnaud has been exactly a league average hitter through his 500-big league games. And Laird received a couple cups of big league coffee with the Yankees and Astros.
Above-average or better tools across the board: plus bat, above-average pop, solid eye and contact skills at the plate, and he can play a solid center and right fields. Diaz is at an interesting precipice in his career as he enters his age-23 season. He’s either going to take that next step forward into stardom, which could very well happen under the new guidance of the player development engine, or he simply stays very good.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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4. D.L. Hall, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 60 | 60 | 40/45 | 60 |
Background: Hall’s wavering command / control in 2018 developed into a full meltdown last season. Hall, the 21st overall pick out of Valdosta High School three years ago, established himself as one of the more dynamic young arms in the minor leagues after his first full season in professional ball: making 22 appearances for the Delmarva Shorebirds in 2018, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound southpaw fanned 100 – against 42 free passes – across 94.1 innings of work. Last season, though, Hall’s walk rate ballooned from 4.0 BB/9 all the way to Steve Blass territory: the former first rounder handed out 54 walks in just 80.2 innings of work. Amazingly enough, though, Hall finished the year with a 3.46 ERA on the back of his incredible ability to miss bats (12.9 K/9). He was knocked out of action in mid-August because of a mild left lat muscle strain.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: With respect to his production, consider the following:
- Between 2006 and 2017, here’s the list of 19-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 24.5% and 26.5% in the South Atlantic League (min. 75 IP): Carlos Carrasco, Jeremy Jeffress, Kelvin De La Cruz, Randall Delgado, Jameson Taillon, Robbie Ray, and Bryse Wilson.
Scouting Report: Let’s update that a bit, shall we? Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been just five 20-year-pitchers to post a 30% strikeout percentage in any High Class A league (min. 75 IP): Tyler Glasnow, Yovani Gallardo, MacKenzie Gore, Will Inman, and DL Hall.
Equipped with three-plus pitches – a mid- to upper-90s fastball with explosive, late life; a hard, hard biting curveball, and an incredibly underrated changeup – but can’t take full advantage of them (scary thought, right?) because of his control / command woes. Prior to hitting the DL in mid-August, Hall made a total of 19 appearances. Of those 19, he walked at least four hitters in six of them. He has the potential to develop into a Blake Snell-type lefty; he just has to throw more strikes. Snell, by the way, battled severe control issues early in his career too.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 30 | 40 | 45 | 50 |
Background: An incredibly underrate prospect during years of his professional career, Mountcastle, who was taken by the Orioles with the 36th overall pick in 2015, has quietly established himself among the game’s best prospects over the past few seasons. Originally drafted a shortstop and converted to a full-time third baseman, the Orioles continued to move Mountcastle around the diamond last season, settling on a pair of un-athletic corner positions: first base and left field. Wherever he stands on defense, though, the bat won’t have a problem contributing. After passing the Class AA exam with convincing production – he batted .297/.341/.464 with Bowie as a 21-year-old – Mountcastle plowed through the minors’ last stop, Class AAA, while feasting on the notorious hitter-friendly environments: in a career-best tying 127 games, the 6-foot-3, 195-pound slugger hit .312/.344/.527 with 35 doubles, one triple, and a career-best 25 dingers. His overall production, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+), topped the league average threshold by 15%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: A long-time perennial favorite of mine. He hits for average and has underrated power. The lone knock is his defense at third base, where he’ll never be confused with Matt Chapman or Brooks Robinson. He may never develop into a full-fledged star, but there are a lot of similar qualities with Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters posted a 110 to 120 DRC+ total with a sub-7.0% walk rate in the International League (min. 300 PA): new Yankees’ cult star Gio Urshela and Ryan Mountcastle. Urshela, of course, is fresh off a massive breakout campaign for New York, slugging .314/.355/.534 during his age-27 season.
There are still two pockmarks that are plaguing Mountcastle’s eventually big league value: (A) his inability to play even passable defense (he was atrocious at first and below-average in a short sample size in left field) and (B) his unwillingness to walk. Everything else about Mountcastle screams potential All-Star during his peak: above-average hit tool, above-average in-game power, and strong contact rates. He’s going to be a cornerstone in the Orioles resurgence for a long time.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2020
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6. Zac Lowther, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The highest drafted player out of Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio, Lowther, the 74th overall pick in the 2017 draft, is already knocking on the big league club’s door. The former Big East Conference ace split the 2018 season between the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues, throwing a combined 123.2 innings with a whopping 151 strikeouts and just 35 walks. Lowther spent the entirety of last season squaring off against the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA. In 26 starts, the big bodied left-hander fanned 154, walked 63, and compiled a 4.16 DRA (Deserved Run Average) in 148.0 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: The numbers – especially the strikeout percentages – are a bit misleading because the big lefty is far from a traditional power pitcher. Instead, Lowther commands three average or better offerings reasonably well. And he’s willing to vary the arm angle/release point on his fastball as well.
Scouting Report: Despite moving up to Class AA, the make-it-or-break-it level, last season, Lowther’s arsenal and pitchability to still racked up plenty of swings-and-misses. His fastball was sitting 87-90 mph in a late season start against Reading, kissing 92 mph on occasion. His straight changeup is workable. And his curveball, a mid-70s offering, is a swing-and-miss type breaking ball and something he should throw more frequently. With respect to his production last season, consider the following:
- .0-Since 2006, only four 23-year-old pitchers – three of which were southpaws, by the way – posted a strikeout percentage between 25% and 27% in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): Glen Perkins, Taylor Hearns, Dellin Betances, and Zac Lowther.
Lowther is what Lowther’s always been: a safe, low ceiling, fast moving pitching prospect. He’s going to be a backend starting pitcher for a long time, hovering near league average status. The command, by the way, wavered at points with Bowie last season. And he’s the type of pitcher where that can’t happen to often.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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7. Drew Rom, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50/55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Handed an above-slot bonus worth about $170,000 to persuade him from heading to the University of Michigan. Rom, the 115th overall player taken in the June draft two years ago, has been nearly unhittable during his two seasons in the minors. The 6-foot-2, 270-pound left-hander posted a 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League. The front office brass pushed the teenager up to the South Atlantic League and he chewed through hitters like an angry pit bull. In 21 appearances, 15 of them coming via the start, the Highlands High School product fanned an incredible 122 and handed out just 33 walks while coming a 2.93 ERA – as well as a 4.17 DRA – in 95.1 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old pitchers to post at least a 30% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 7% and 10% in the South Atlantic League (min. 75 IP): Grayson Rodriguez and Drew Rom.
Notice a reoccurring them among the club’s top low level pitching prospects: massive strikeout percentages. Rom doesn’t have the repertoire of Grayson Rodriguez or DL Hall, but he knows how to maximize his talents. His fastball sits in the 90 mph range. He’ll mix in an above-average slider and a decent split finger that he uses as a changeup. His pitching style is reminiscent of Andy Pettitte. Rom looks like a #3/#4-type arm if the fastball can bump a couple ticks, something in the 92- to 93-mph range. Nonetheless he’s a very interesting prospects.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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8. Michael Baumann, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50/55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A tremendous find in the third round of the 2017 draft. Baumann, a product of Jacksonville University, began to put things together during his junior campaign for the Atlantic Sun Conference school; he posted a 97-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87.1 innings of work. The broad-shouldered right-hander continued to impress during his debut in the minor leagues as well, fanning 43 and walking just 19 in 42.1 innings of work – most of which came in the New York-Penn League. Baumann split the following year between Delmarva and Frederick, posting a 106-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130.2 innings of work. Last season, easily his best as a professional, Baumann established himself as a legitimate big league option: in 24 appearances between Frederick and Bowie, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound righty fanned 142 and walked 45 to go along with a 2.98 ERA.
Scouting Report: Very impressive repertoire: Baumann’s fastball sits in the 92- to 94-mph range and touched as high as 97 mph late in the year with Bowie; his slider shows some impressive two-plane depth and sits in the 86- to 88-mph range; his curveball flashes above-average when he’s not overthrowing it; and his changeup has some strong arms-side run. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old pitchers to fan between 23% and 25% and walk between 7% and 9% of the hitters they faced in the Eastern League (min. 50 IP): Dean Kremer, Patrick McCoy, Tristan Crawford, Travis Foley, David Parkinson, Adrian Salcedo, Nabil Crismatt, Eli Morgan, David Peterson, George Kontos, and – of course – Michael Baumann.
It’s obviously a less-than-stellar collection of arms. But Baumann has a bright future as a #4-type starting pitcher.
Ceiling: 2.0 to 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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9. Austin Hayes, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: There’s very few – if any – bats in the minor leagues that have endured the roller coaster that Hays has over the past few seasons. A 20-year-old third round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2016, Hays, who batted a scorching .350/.406/.655 during his final collegiate season, skyrocketed through the Orioles’ farm system – as well as launching himself up every prospect list – through his first two professional seasons. But something happened to the 6-foot-1, 195-pound outfielder in 2018: he stopped producing. He hit a paltry .224/.259/.374 through his first 43 games before hitting the DL and, well, never quite recovered. Last season, once again, Hays spent considerable time on the disabled list. He finished he year with an aggregate .248/.299/.464 across four minor league levels and slugged .309/.373/.574 in 21 games in Baltimore.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: There are essentially two schools of thought surrounding Hays meteoric crash: (#1) The league adjusted to Hays or (#2) a Spring Training shoulder strain and a midseason ankle issue, which resulted in the lengthy DL stint, were to blame.I’m willing to bet on the latter. Even in a lost season, Hays’ offensive toolkit remained largely intact: below-average walk rates, solid bat-to-ball skills, and average-ish power.
Scouting Report: Honestly, at this point, I’m not certain the Orioles even know what to expect from Hays. Injuries notwithstanding, Hays looks like a legitimate starting caliber outfielder: he slugged .247/.300/.452 in 24 games in Class AA, but promptly hit the disabled list. He followed that up with a .261/.312/.473 mark in 49 games in Class AAA following a rehab stint. But the truth is simple: the nagging injuries have severely limited his development time. At one point the bat looked like a plus tool, but now it’s more average. The power is above-average. But the lack of patience chews into a lot of his offensive value. One more thought: across 138 total MLB plate appearances his batted ball data is mediocre.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017
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10. Cadyn Grenier, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 45/50 | 35 | 50 | 70 | 50 |
Background: A smooth, slick fielding middle infielder from Oregon State University; Baltimore took a flier on Grenier’s defensive upside – as opposed to some questions about his bat – at the end of the first round two years. The 37th overall player drafted, Grenier’s debut went as expect: he was an absolute wizard at shortstop and struggled a bit with the bat, hitting a lowly .216/.297/.333 with 15 extra-base hits. Unsurprisingly, Grenier found himself back in the South Atlantic League for a do over in 2019. This time, though, the results were improved: in 82 games with the Delmarva Shorebirds, the 5-foot-11, 188-pound shortstop batted .253/.360/.399 with 18 doubles, three triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped five bags in six attempts. Baltimore bounced the former Beaver up to the Carolina League in mid-July. He would struggle after the promotion, cobbling together a puny .208/.337/.325 triple-slash line.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: A questionable first round pick for a couple reasons: (#1) Grenier has a limited offensive track record; (#2) He’s approach at the plate remained stagnant during his three-year career; (#3) He doesn’t own a true standout tool.
Scouting Report: On the short, short list for top defender – at any position – in the minor leagues. Grenier put up some eye-popping defensive value in 2019. According to Clay Davenport’s metrics, Grenier was a plus-10 shortstop. Baseball Prospectus had the former Oregon State star as saving 7.7 Defensive Runs Above Average. He was nothing short of spectacular. Offensive speaking, he showed some progress at the plate: he walked more frequently (though his swing-and-miss numbers spiked to red flag territory) and the power looks like it could develop into a 15 or so homeruns. It looked like Grenier would eventually slide into a utility role, but there’s now enough offensive hope to suggest a strong starting option in a few year. The defensive cannot afford to degrade though.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
