Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
_______________________________________________________________________________________
1. Gilberto Jimenez, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60/70 | 45/55 | 55 | 40/50 | 40/50 | 60 |
Background: Despite a down-ward trending farm system, the Red Sox player development has churned out a pair of superstar caliber homegrown players over the past few seasons in Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. And Jimenez, a native of San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, is poised to be the next great Red Sox product. Handed a paltry, paltry sum of just $10,000 on August 2, 2017, Gimenez ripped through the Dominican Summer League a season later, slugging .319/.384/.420 with 10 doubles and eight triples in 67 games. Last season the club aggressively pushed the then-18-year-old up to Lowell and the 5-foot-11, 160-pound wiry outfielder barely broke a sweat. In 59 games with the Spinners, Jimenez hit a scorching .359/.393/.470 with 11 doubles, three triples, and three homeruns. He also swiped 14 bags in 20 total attempts. His overall production, as measured by Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, was a whopping 91% better than the league average, the third best mark among all hitters in the New York-Penn League with at least 150 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2000, there have been 79 hitters that received 150 or more plate appearances in a season in the New York-Penn League. The two best performing 18-year-old hitters during that time were Victor Robles in 2015 and Gilberto Jimenez last season.
Just how good was Jimenez? His overall production was 26-percentage points better than his teenage counterpart. To put that in perspective: Pete Alonso captured the N.L. Rookie of the Year on the back of a 141 DRC+ last season. The difference between Jimenez and Robles is the same as Alonso and Kurt Suzuki.
Jimenez is a rare five-tool athlete with the potential for above-average to plus tools across the board. As a young switch-hitter, he handles lefties and righties well, plays an up-the-middle position (albeit incredibly raw), and shows an incredible knack for consistently barreling up the baseball. The lone knock on Jimenez: he’s not overly patient, but it should improve with time. Within a year he could be challenging Wander Franco as the best prospect in baseball.
Ceiling: 4-0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
_______________________________________________________________________________________
2. Jeter Downs, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: I wish I could claim it, but I’m clearly not that witty. Or at least lack that type of quick wit. But someone one Reddit or Twitter summed it succinctly: The Red Sox now have a Jeter they can root for. Of course it took dealing away the face of the franchise – and one of the best players in baseball – as well as a still dominant, albeit aging, top pitcher to get him. The Sox and Dodgers got together in one of the bigger trades in recent memory when they two agreed to send Mookie Betts, David Price, and boatload of cash to the Dodgers in exchange for outfielder Alex Verdugo, backstop Connor Wong, and – of course – shortstop Jeter Downs. Taken at the back end of the opening round three years ago, Downs, who was originally drafted by the Reds, is now onto his third organization; he was originally traded by Cincinnati as part of the Yasiel Puig mega-swap last offseason. Downs spent the majority of his 2019 campaign with the Dodgers High Class A affiliate, Rancho Cucamonga, hitting a solid .269/.354/.507 with career highs in doubles, (33), triples (four), and homeruns (19) while swiping 23 bags. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 27%. Downs also appeared in a dozen Class AA contests at the end of the year as well.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Cut from a similar cloth as Reds center fielder of the future Taylor Trammell. Downs acquitted himself nicely against the older competition that the Midwest League has to offer. He shows a solid approach at the plate, making consistent contact with an average eye. The overwhelming majority of his power is of the pull-variety, so teams will likely start employing a shift to the left-side of the infield. Defensively speaking, he’s a liability – and that’s putting it nicely – so a shift to center field, forsaking his namesake, is a very distinct possibility in the coming years.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the California League (min. 300 PA): 122 to 132 DRC+ and a double digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Rio Ruiz, Delino DeShields Jr., and Jeter Downs.
Solid batted ball data for a 20-year-old in High Class A, Downs, according to FanGraphs, posted an average exit velocity of 88 mph with a peak exit velocity of 106 mph. Strong, above-average eye at the plate backed up by solid bat-to-ball skills and plus speed. Downs’ power – and his glove work – took a development leap. He’s not going to be a star, but he could anchor Boston’s infield for the better part of a decade or so.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021
_______________________________________________________________________________________
3. Triston Casas, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 60/70 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: A product of American Heritage High School, home to several notable players including Eric Hosmer, Zack Collins, Shaun Anderson, Darnell Sweeney, and former Boston farmhand Deven Marrero, Casas had the pedigree – and the production – that suggested first round pick. The slugging corner infielder was a two-time Under Armour All-America All-Star game and captured the Most Valuable Player Award for the 2017 U-18 Baseball World Cup. The Red Sox snagged the 6-foot-4, 238-pound Floridian in the opening round, 26th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.55 million. Casas appeared in just a pair of Gulf Coast League games during his debut courtesy of a UCL injury in his right thumb. Despite the lack of professional experience, the front office aggressively pushed the promising youngster up to the South Atlantic League last season. And Casas made the transition with aplomb. In 118 games with Greenville, he slugged .254/.349/.472 with 25 doubles, five triples, and 19 homeruns to go along with a trio of stolen bases. His overall production, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 45%. He also appeared in a pair of games in High Class A at the end of the year as well, going 3-for-7 with a double and a homerun.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: While the Red Sox seem content on having the sweet-swinging lefty play third base, he’s likely to eventually slide across the diamond to first base as he reaches full maturity. Casas shows impressive bat speed with above-average or better power to all fields. I do wonder if contact issues in his all-or-nothing approach won’t be an issue. But make no mistake, there’s serious light tower power here.
Scouting Report: A few things to note:
- The defensive shift has already occurred as he made 94 appearances at first base and just a pair of games at the hot corner.
- I was wrong about his approach at the plate. Casas’s approach resulted in a modest 23.5% strikeout rate to go along with an above-average walk rate (11.8%) last season.
Now let’s compare his production against his peers over the past two decades. Consider the following:
- Since 2000, there have been four 19-year-old hitters to post a Deserved Runs Created Plus between 140 and 150 with a double-digit walk rate in the South Atlantic League (min. 250 PA): Luis Alejandro Basabe, J.P. Crawford, Travis Denker, and – of course – Triston Casas.
It’s obviously a less-than-stellar collection of comparables. Basabe’s a middle-tier prospect the Diamondbacks’ organization; Crawford, the Mariner’s starting shortstop but owns a career .222/.320/.367 triple-slash line; and Denker made it to the big leagues for 24 games in 2008. With respect to Casas’s peripherals: their all quite promising – a strong eye, plus in-game power, and a solid enough hit tool. He did struggle against fellow southpaws, so that needs to be monitored closely (he batted .213/.317/.416 vs. LHP). And now that he’s a full-time first baseman the bat needs to carry him the rest of the way.
Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
_______________________________________________________________________________________
4. Jay Groome, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 70 | 50 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: It’s been a rough couple of seasons for the promising, oft-times dominant southpaw. The front office pumped the brakes on his 2017 season in August 2017 after the former first round pick succumbed to some arm issues, which was initially diagnosed as a forearm stain. Fast forward roughly nine months and Groome’s woes eventually pushed him under the knife for Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the entire 2018 season and most of the 2019 season. Finally healthy, the Barnegat High School product made his way back to the Gulf Coast League in last August for a couple of one-inning appearances before a final two-inning start with the Lowell Spinners in the New York-Penn League. He tossed four innings, recording six strikeouts against just one free pass.
Scouting Report: Prior to the injury; he attacked hitters with two plus-offerings – a heavy, mid-90s fastball and an elite curveball – to go along with a decent changeup. During his return to action at the end of the year Groome’s fastball was back up to the mid-90s, peaking at 95 mph. Injury issues notwithstanding, the lone knock on the 12th overall pick in the 2016 draft was his sometimes problematic control. He’s now lost the better part of two years of development and pitchers tend to struggle commanding the zone after Tommy John surgery – so it’s not a promising recipe. His curveball is very reminiscent of fellow southpaw Rich Hill’s.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
_______________________________________________________________________________________
5. Brayan Mata, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Signed out of Maracay, Venezuela, in late January, 2016. The lightning quick arm of Mata’s has propelled the promising youngster to the upper levels of the minor leagues just a few scant seasons later. Mata, a wiry, baby-faced right-hander, spent his professional debut in the club’s foreign rookie league before moving stateside in 2017. As an 18-year-old, Mata ripped through the South Atlantic League with a surprising amount of ease – especially considering his aggression promotion schedule. In 17 starts Greenville, the 6-foot-3, 160-pound hurler posted a 74-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.0 innings of work. Mata spent the following season, 2018, battling control demons in the Carolina League; he would walk nearly as many hitters as he fanned (61-to-58) through 17 starts – though he somehow managed to cobble together a superficially nice 3.5 0ERA. Last season the young fireballer regain command of the strike zone and torched the High Class A competition for 10 starts before settling in – and often dominating – the minors’ most difficult test, Class AA. In a career best 21 starts, Mata average 9.5 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.43 ERA.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Watching Mata pitch, even as painful as it was at times, it’s clear to see how he passed through the Sally with barely a scratch as an 18-year-old two years ago. His fastball, an above-average pitch, shows a bit of life, though there isn’t any projection left because he’s physically maxed out. His curveball, a sharp 12-6 break, flashes plus at times.
Scouting Report: From painful to watch to a pure joy. Mata’s on the cusp on putting everything together. The young right-hander’s fastball was up to 97 mph during his final start of the year, a seven-inning, nine-strikeout performance against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. His curveball, which previously flashed plus, has become a consistent swing-and-miss weapon. His changeup is a fine above-average offering. And he’s added a hard slider/cutter that shows late, hard bite. The command can waver a bit at times, but he continues to show the mental fortitude to move beyond the brief hiccups. With respect to his work in the Eastern League last season, consider the following:
- Since 2000, only three 20-year-old pitchers have posted a strikeout percentage between 24% and 27% with a walk percentage between 10% and 12% in the Eastern League (min. 50 IP): Chris Tillman, Gio Gonzalez, and Bryan Mata.
Tillman, a former top prospect in the Mariners’ and Orioles’ farm system, was a consistent mid-rotation arm from 2013 through 2016. And Gonzalez, another former top prospect, has been an above-average, often dominating hurler across 12 big league seasons. Mata has the build and repertoire to develop into a strong #3-type arm that could peak as a #2 if the command continues to improve.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
_______________________________________________________________________________________
6. Noah Song, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 75 | 65 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Arguably the most talented pitcher in the entire draft class last season; Song, a firebolt-slinging right-hander, slipped all the way to the last pick in the fourth round, 137th overall, due to the two-year active-duty service requirement as a member of the United States Naval Academy. Since then, though, a memo signed by Defense Secretary Mark Esper in mid-November, at the insistence of President Trump, could potentially change that. According to a report by the Capital Gazette on November 14th, the memo would allow athletes to play professional sports immediately upon graduation if they get approval from the defense secretary, and it states that they will be required to eventually fulfill their obligation or pay for the education. Song, reportedly, is eligible for the memo change, but it could impact his ability to play professionally. So Boston’s fourth round gamble could prove to be the steal of the entire 2019 draft. Song simply posted the sixth best strikeout rate in Division I history last season, whiffing an astonishing 15.4 hitters every nine innings. In total, the 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander struck out a whopping 161, against just31 free passes, in 94.0 innings of work. He tallied a barely-there 1.44 ERA to go along with an 11-1 win-loss record for the Naval Academy. He made seven starts for Lowell in the New York-Penn League during his pro debut, posting a 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.0 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Straight filth. His fastball was kissing 98 or 99 mph during his recent appearance for Team USA in the WBSC Premier 12. He’ll also mix in a hard, oft-times absurdly good slider, a mid-70s curveball tha might just be better than the slider with hard downward tilt, and an average changeup. To go along with the plus- to plus-plus velocity; his fastball shows impressive arm side run at times. He also commands the zone surprising well. He has the potential to be an upper-rotation-caliber arm.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021 or 2023 (depending upon service duty)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
7. Jarren Duan, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 35/40 | 60 | 45 | 45/55 | 50 |
Background: One of the more fascinating prospects in the entire minor leagues because, well, Duran’s professional success wasn’t foreseen by anyone. A three-year starter for Long Beach State, Duran left the school as a solid, though remarkably mediocre .294/.376/.377 hitter when the Sox called his name in the seventh round of the 2018 draft. The 220th overall player chosen that year, Duran looked like the second coming of Cobb during his professional debut, slugging a scorching .357/.394/.516 triple-slash line in 67 games between Lowell and Greenville. And truth be told, it smacked of beginner’s luck, something he wouldn’t – and couldn’t – come close to replicating in another extend stint. Until he did. Opening last season up with Salem in the Carolina League, Duran slugged a whopping .387/.456/.543 in 50 games while topping the league average production by a staggering 101%. Boston bounced the former second-baseman-turned-center-fielder up to the minors’ toughest challenge and, finally, the former Dirt Bag’s bat began cool. In 82 games with Portland, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound outfielder hit a disappointing .250/.309/.325. Duran finished the year with an aggregate .303.367/.408 mark, belting out 24 doubles, eight triples, and five homerun while swiping 46 bags in 59 attempts. The organization sent him to the Arizona Fall League after the year; he hit .267/.337/.400 in 24 games with Peoria.
Scouting Report: Wildly fascinating. Consider the following:
- Since 2007 only two other hitters, Joey Gallo and Ryan McKenna, has posted a higher Deserved Runs Created Plus in the Carolina League (min. 200 PA).
For those counting at home: there have been a total of 1,295 instances in which a hitter received at least 200 plate appearances in a season in the Carolina League. Now let’s take a look at his work in the Class AA:
- Since 2007 only three 22-year-old hitters have met the following criteria in the Eastern League (min. 300 PA): a DRC+ total between 70- and 80; a walk rate between 5% and 8%; and a strikeout rate between 21% and 25%. Those three hitters are: Darick Hall, Destin Hood, and Jarren Duran.
So which is the real Duran: the guy that torched three levels or the one that barely scraped by with enough production in Class AA? The answer’s probably somewhere firmly in the middle. Duran’s stint in Class AA was sandwiched a several poor weeks: he batted just .186/.294/.271 during his first 15 games and finished the year by hitting .218/.295/.347 over his final 27 contest. In between that, though, he hit .294/.325/.331 in 40 contests. The hit tool looks like it has a chance to be a plus skill and speed is already bordering on plus-plus. But the power has ways to go still, though it’s flashed double-digit homer potential. The defense is still raw, but the combination of elite speed and lack of center field experience bodes well for the future. He could be a dynamic table setter if everything breaks the right way.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
_______________________________________________________________________________________
8. Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 70 | 30 | 70 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The former University of Arizona two-way star earned some nice hardware last season: The hulking corner infielder was named the Carolina League MVP and Boston recognized him as the franchise’s Top Minor League Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Not a bad showing for a fourth round pick. After spending just over two dozen games in the Eastern League to cap of his successful 2018 season, Dalbec was sent back to Portland for some more seasoning. He obliged by slugging .234/.371/.454 with 15 doubles, a pair of triples, and 20 homeruns in 105 games. His overall production in the most challenging minor league test, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, was a whopping 51% better than the average. Boston bumped him up to Pawtucket in early August for his final 30 contests. He finished the year with a .239/.356/.460 triple-slash line with 19 doubles, two triples, and 27 homers.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Dalbec’s calling card – as always – has been his light-tower power. And he complements the plus skill with tremendous patience at the dish as well. The problem for Dalbec, however, is his inability to make consistent enough contact.
Scouting Report: Light tower power still intact? Check. Elite patience at the dish? Double check. Problematic strikeout rates? Far from it. It’s wildly uncommon and, frankly, nearly unheard of, but during his fourth professional season and at the age of 24, Dalbec took tremendous strides in trimming his ceiling-limiting strikeout rates down to…well…average-ish territory. Against the Eastern League pitching he whiffed in slightly more than 25% of his plate appearances, roughly eight-percentage points better than his career numbers. With respect to his work in Class AA, consider the following:
- Since 2000 only four 24-year-old hitters have posted a DRC+ between 145 and 155 in the Eastern League (min. 300 PA): Josmil Pinto, Zach Green, Thomas Neal, and Bobby Dalbec.
The good news: Pinto, Green, and Neal all reached the major leagues. The bad news: they played a collective 107 games there. Despite trimming his red flag-waving punch out rate, Dalbec’s below-average hit tool – regardless of the power and patience combo – make him a tough bet to carve out a lengthy big league career.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
_______________________________________________________________________________________
9. Brayan Bello, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60/65 | 55/60 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: One of the more promising, albeit raw, arms Boston’s system is boasting. The organization signed the wiry, projectable right-hander three years ago out of Samana, Dominican Republic. The 6-foot-1, 170-pound hurler made his professional debut two years ago, making 13 starts in the Dominican Summer League and one final relief appearance in the Gulf Coast League; he would finish the year with a 1.60 ERA, averaging 9.9 strikeouts and just 1.3 walks per nine innings. Last season the front office turned the kid gloves into a lead foot and pushed him straight into the South Atlantic League. And Bello continued to post impressive peripherals – especially considering his lack of professional experience. In a career-high 117.2 innings, he fanned 119 and walked just 38.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2000, there have been nine 20-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23% with a walk percentage between 6% and 8% in the South Atlantic League (min. 100 IP): Jhoulys Chacin, Nick Kingham, Domingo Tapia, Zachary Fuesser, Jorge Bucardo, Nick Pesco, Anthony Lerew, Mike Hinckley, and Brayan Bello.
Bello, showing a lightning-quick arm, has an explosive above-average fastball that has a solid chance of bumping up to plus—territory as he fills out. It was hovering in the 93- to 94-mph range with relative ease. Bello’s slider, an above-average offering, shows some solid depth and looks more like a traditional curveball. Like the fastball, there’s a chance it gets better as he further refines it. And his changeup, a 50-grade weapon, is raw with some fade and sink. He’s more of a strike-thrower as opposed to someone that commands the strike zone. Bello has the makings of a #4-type arm, maybe more. There’s a lot to like.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
_______________________________________________________________________________________
10. Thad Ward, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: A solid find in the fifth round out of the University of Central Florida two years ago, Ward spent the overwhelming majority of collegiate career pitching in short stints; he made just seven career starts and 54 relief appearances. He finished his collegiate career with a 127-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 118.2 innings of work. Boston immediately converted Ward – and his four-pitch repertoire – into a fulltime starting pitcher. And the 6-foot-3, 182-pound right-hander shot through two low levels en route to statistically dominant sophomore professional season. Making a combined 25 starts between Greenville and Salem, Ward fanned a remarkable 157 against 57 walks to go along with a 2.14 ERA.
Scouting Report: One of the fastest working arms in the minor leagues; Ward quickly gets into a rhythm early in the game by attacking hitters with his above-average low-90s fastball, which will top 96 at times, and a slider that pushes the boundaries between a traditional cutter and a harder curveball at times. . Ward’s commands his heater particularly low-and-away to hitters, which helps the effectiveness of his slider against right-handers. He’ll also a curveball and a changeup, both grading out as a solid average. Ward looks like a solid #4/#5-type arm in the coming years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021
_______________________________________________________________________________________
All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
