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1. Kristian Robinson, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 55/60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: After striking gold by signing Jazz Chisholm, who was dealt to the Marlins last season, from the Bahamas in 2015, Arizona handed fellow countryman Kristian Robinson a hefty $2.5 million bonus two seasons later. Standing a wiry 6-foot-3 and 190-pounds, the supremely gifted outfielder bypassed the foreign rookie leagues and split time between the Arizona Summer and Pioneer Leagues during his debut; he batted an aggregate .279/.363/.428 with 12 doubles and seven homeruns with 12 stolen bases. Last season, Robinson opened the year up by slugging .319/.407/.558 with 10 doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns in only 44 games before he was promoted up to the Midwest League. Robinson capped off second professional season with a .282/.368/.514 triple-slash line, belting out 13 doubles, two triples, and 14 homeruns to go along with 17 stolen bases in 22 total attempts.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s a lot to like about the teenage center fielder: solid patience at the plate, OK hit tool and contact rates, above-average speed, and promising power potential. Robinson is still quite raw. And he’s going to have to cut down his strikeouts. But it’s incredibly promising that he handled jumping straight into the stateside rookie league and then a brief tour through the Pioneer League.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in short-season ball, consider the following:
- Since 2006, here are the top two offensive seasons in the Northwest League by an 18-year-old with a minimum of 175 PA (ranked in from first to third): Kristian Robinson and Kevin Padlo. Here’s the impressive part: Robinson’s production was an eye-catching 44-percentage points better than the runner-up.
There’s a lot to like about Robinson: burgeoning plus power, plus speed, strong glove in center field, and top notch production against older competition. However – and there’s always a “however” – the strikeout rates continues to be an issue. He whiffed in a quarter of his plate appearances with Hillsboro and slightly less than 30% of his plate appearances with Kane County. He has superstar potential and I think he eventually works past the strikeout issues.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Daulton Varsho, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: The son of ex-big leaguer Gary Varsho, who batted .244/.294/.355 across parts of eight seasons with the Cubs, Pirates, Reds, and Phillies, the younger Varsho was one of the more intriguing names in the 2017 draft class. A product of the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, the lefty-swinging backstop put up some eye-popping numbers beginning with his first stint in the Northwoods Summer League and continued all the way through the his final two years in college. Arizona drafted the Wisconsin native in the second round, 68th overall., and he’s continued to post strong offensive numbers. He batted .311/.368/.534 in short-season ball. And he falled that up with a .294/.367/.475 slash line as he was aggressively pushed up to the California League. Last season, Varsho appeared in a career best 108 games for the Jackson General in the Southern League, slugging .301/.378/.520 with career highs in doubles (25) and homeruns (18) to go along with a quarter of triples. The speedy backstop also swiped an impressive 21 bags in only 26 attempts. His overall production, as measured by Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 56%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: As I remarked heading into the 2017 draft, Varsho has “double-digit power, an average eye at the plate, and strong contact skills – all wrapped up at a premium position.” And that analysis/scouting report still holds true a year later – despite an aggressive promotion up to High Class A. The lefty-swinging Varsho shows no semblance of platoon splits and has looked like a brick wall behind the dish, posting a +16 in the runs saved department since entering the professional ranks. Varsho remains one of the more underrated backstops in the minor leagues. Plus, he’s only entering his age-22 season.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post a 150 to 160 DRC+ in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): Desmond Jennings, Angel Salome, and Daulton Varsho. Jennings was a prolific athlete that was a better than league average bat during his peak. Salome was once considered a top prospect with a dynamic bat, but battled his own demons and only briefly got called up to the big leagues.
As for Varsho, well, what can’t he do? Nothing, really. He hits for average and power. He runs well for an outfielder, let alone a full time catcher. He’s willing to walk and owns fantastic contact rates. And the lefty-swinging prospect doesn’t own any serious platoon splits. Arizona now controls one of the better young catchers in the big leagues – Carson Kelly – as well as one of the best prospects at the same position. One more thought: Varsho does have the athleticism, a la Craig Biggio, to move to another position and succeed.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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3. Corbin Carroll, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 45/50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Typically, top prep prospects have the hulking frames or wiry, quick-twitchy builds that ooze potential. For example, there were seven high school players chosen in the Top 10 selections between 2017 and 2018. The smallest player, Jarred Kelenic, measured in at 6-foot-1 and 196 pounds. Enter: Corbin Carroll. A UCLA commit since his sophomore season at Lakeside High School, Carroll stands a diminutive – though rock solid – 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. Carroll’s smaller frame size, however, didn’t limit or hinder his skyrocketing draft status, nor has it negatively impacted his on-field performance. Winner of Washington’s Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year A four-year letter winner, the Seattle native also starred for the 18U Team USA National Squad in 2018 as well: playing alongside likes of other elite prospects, he batted .500/.615/1.000 with four doubles and one triple while tying a team best three homeruns. He also swiped a team-leading nine bags and sported a solid 2-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Arizona drafted him in the opening round, 16th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3,745,500 – the recommender slot bonus. The toolsy outfielder split time between the stateside rookie league and Hillsboro, hitting a combined .299/.409/.487 with nine doubles, seven triples, and a pair of homeruns with 18 stolen bases in 19 total attempts.
Scouting Report: One of my favorite, if not my absolute favorite, player in the entire 2019 draft class. Here’s what I wrote about the Lakeside School product prior to the draft:
“Surprising power thank to his elite bat speed and natural loft in a silky smooth left-handed swing. Carroll’s a legitimate five-tool prospect, showcasing above-average tools across the board. He has a tendency to expand the strike zone at times, especially against fastballs up. Carroll’s very reminiscent of an early career Adam Eaton. Between 2015 and 2016, the above-average center fielder slugged .286/.362/.430 while averaging 30 doubles, nine triples, 15 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases every 162 games.”
The club top pick from last June showed no massive red flags. He’s an absolute gamer. Love him.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Alek Thomas, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Sharing a couple similarities with Daulton Varsho: #1 Thomas was also taken in the second round of the draft (2018) and #2 the young center fielder also has some interesting, baseball-related bloodlines; his father, Allen, is the Director of Conditioning for the Chicago White Sox. The 63rd overall selection out of Mount Carmel High School two years ago, Thomas, a 5-foot-11, 175-pound toolsy center fielder, turned in a dynamic debut as he split time between the Arizona Summer and Pioneer Leagues. In a combined 56 games, he slugged .333/.395/.463 with 14 doubles, six triples, and a pair of homeruns. He also swiped 12 bags in 17 attempts. Last season, Thomas, once again, split time at two separate levels: he appeared in 91 games in the Midwest League and another 23 contests in the California League. He batted a combined .300/.379/.450 with 23 doubles, seven triples, 10 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Thomas showed a promising, well-rounded game on both sides of the ball. He has the potential to develop an above-average hit tool to go along with plenty of speed and solid defense. If he develops power – which may or may not happen because he put more than 50% of his balls in play on the ground – Thomas looks like a five-tool threat.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Low Class A last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a 150 to 160 DRC+ in the Midwest League with a sub-20% strikeout rate (min. 350 PA): Luis Arraez and – of course – Alek Thomas. Arraez, by the way, finished sixth in the A.L. Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .334/.399/.439 for the Twins last season.
Like Varsho, Thomas offers up an incredibly well-rounded approach at the plate, showing an above-average hit tool, power that should grow into a perennial 20-homer threat, and above-average speed. Thomas does show a slight platoon split, but it barely registers a blip on his future ceiling. Defensively, he’s average.
Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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5. Corbin Martin, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55 | 60 | 55/60 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: Arizona pulled the trigger on a massive deal at the trade deadline last season, agreeing to send future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke and cash to the eventual American League Champion Houston Astros for a four-player package of prospects: Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Josh Rojas. According to reports, Martin was viewed as the centerpiece of the deal by the Diamondbacks’ front office – despite undergoing Tommy John surgery weeks before. Prior to the injury the 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander tossed 37.1 innings with Round Rock in the Pacific Coast League, averaging 10.8 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings. He also made five starts with the Astros as well, fanning 19 and walking 12 in 19.1 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Martin hardly looks the same pitcher he was coming out of college. He’s not only a consistent strike-thrower, but he’s consistently making pitcher’s pitches – with his entire arsenal. Martin very well could ascend upwards of a #2/#3-type starting pitcher at full maturity – especially if he was locating as well as he was in 2018.
Scouting Report: I aggressively listed Martin as the third best prospect in a loaded Houston Astros farm system. And his repertoire – before succumbing to the elbow woes – looked as explosive as ever. His riding four-seamer was sitting comfortably in the mid-90s, touching a tick or two higher on occasion. His curveball is straight filth; the slider is an above-average weapon. And his changeup flashed plus on a couple occasions. All of this could be moot is the surgical procedure and / or rehab doesn’t go as expected. But, personally, I would have absolutely made the deal the Diamondbacks did.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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6. Geraldo Perdomo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 35/45 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Handed a scant five-figure bonus on the international scene four years ago, Perdomo, a 6-foot-3, 184-pound shortstop, is proving to be quite the bargain. After struggling during his debut in the foreign rookie the league, the young switch-hitter had a coming out party as he made three stops in 2018: he batted an aggregate .322/.438/.460 with seven doubles, five triples, four homeruns, and 24 stolen bases in 30 attempts between his time in the Arizona Summer, Pioneer, and Northwest Leagues. Last season – once again – Perdomo was aggressively pushed through two levels. And he handled the challenge with aplomb. In 116 games with Kane County and Visalia, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native hit .275/.397/.364 with 21 doubles, three triples, and three homeruns. He also swiped 26 bags in 39 attempts. Perdomo spent the fall playing for the Salt River Rafters, batting .316/.417/.418 with five extra-base hits and a pair of stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Remarkably consistent during his stops in the Midwest and California Leagues last season; his overall production topped the league average threshold by 27% and 28%, respectively. Consider the following:
Tremendously talented as a defender, Perdomo, according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, saved a total of 14 runs between both stops. The bat is looks like an above-average weapon; the speed is a game changer; and he’s surprisingly patient for a teenager player squaring off against significantly older competition. The power’s below-average, but he did show strong batted ball data two years ago to suggest double-digit dingers are in the near future. One more final thought: the defense, alone, could be enough to carry him to the big leagues.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Wilderd Patino, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 35/55 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: What was the Texas Rangers’ loss turned out to be a windfall for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Patino, a toolsy center fielder out of Puerto Ordaz, Venezula, originally signed a hefty $1.3 million deal with Texas, but it was eventually voided due to an arm injury. Arizona swooped in and signed him to a deal in early October 2017. Lanky, twitchy, and oozing tools, the 6-foot-1, 175-pound outfielder struggled a bit during his debut in the foreign rookie league, hitting a paltry .261/.391/.315 with just six doubles in 34 games as a 16-year-old. The front office brass pushed Patino to the Arizona Summer League to begin last season and the results were significantly improved: in 30 games he slugged .349/.403/.472 with four doubles, three triples, one homerun, and 13 stolen bases. The then-17-year-old capped off his showing with a 10-game cameo in the Pioneer League, batting .229/.300/.371.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in the rookie league last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only eight 17-year-old hitters posted a DRC+ between 142 and 152 in the Arizona Summer League (min. 125 PA): Gleyber Torres, Jeisson Rosario, Isaac Paredes, Tirso Ornelas, Darryl Collins, Nino Leyja, Jordan Diaz, and Wilderd Patino.
For those counting at home that’s: one two-time All-Star and one of the best young stars in baseball (Torres), one Top 50 prospect (Paredes), four additional intriguing prospects (Rosario, Ornelas, Collins, and Diaz), one failed prospect (Leyja), and – of course – Patino. Average power that may develop into a 55-grade. The hit tool looks incredibly promising, offering glimpses of quickly becoming an above-average weapon. Plus speed. Solid eye at the plate. Above-average defense. The lone red flag: his borderline strikeout rate; he fanned in more than a quarter of his plate appearances.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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8. Seth Beer, 1B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The hulking first baseman / left fielder put together one of the most dynamic offensive campaigns by a true freshman in recent memory when he bashed and battered the competition to the tune of .369/.535/.700 with 31 extra-base hits. His numbers production regressed a bit the following two seasons, going from otherworldly to just first round status. Arizona received Beer as part of the Zack Greinke extravaganza last July. The 28th overall player chosen in 2018 is now coming off of two rock solid seasons in the minor leagues. He batted .304/.389/.496 with 14 doubles and 12 homeruns between three levels during his debut. Beer, who stands 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, hit an aggregate .289/.388/.516 with 24 doubles and 26 homeruns between High Class A and Class AA.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: In terms of big league comps, Beer looks like a poor man’s Kris Bryant or Paul Goldschmidt. Or better yet: an improved version of Eric Thames, the 2017 version. In terms of big league ceiling, I’d think .260/.370/.530.
Scouting Report: One of the most saber-friendly hitters in the entire minor leagues. Beer does everything you’d want a middle-of-the-lineup thumper to do: make consistent contact, hit for plus-power, walk a bit, and do so with concerning platoon splits. The former Clemson Tiger faltered a bit after the trade to Arizona – which doesn’t even move the needle on the “Concern-o-Meter” – but his production in the Texas League was prolific. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hitters to post at least a 150 DRC+ in the Texas League (min. 250 PA): Alex Bregman, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Chris Carter, Abraham Toro, and – of course – Seth Beer.
For those counting at home: Bregman owns a 138 DRC+; Gordon’s has a career 104 DRC+ including four-year stretch where he was far above the league average; Fowler sports a 101 DRC+ in his career; Carter, surprising, owns a 112 DRC+ in his career; and Toro is an easy Top 100 prospect. And, just for the record, only two of the aforementioned players topped the 170 DRC+ mark: Bregman and Beer. And the Diamondbacks’ budding slugger bested the Astros’ superstar by five percentage points.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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9. Pavin Smith, 1B/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 45 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Four of the first nine players taken in the 2017 draft have already made their respective big league debuts (Brendan McKay, Kyle Wright, Adam Haseley, and Kesto Hiura). And Smith, the seventh overall player selected that June, is poised to become the fifth. A product of the University of Virginia, a collegiate superpower, Smith left the school with a career .326/.403/.515 triple-slash line. And he’s been remarkably consistent in his three-year professional career; he owns a professional slash line of .281/.364/.426. Last season the 6-foot-2, 210-pound first baseman / corner outfielder hit a rock solid .291/.370/.466 with career bests in doubles (29), triples (6), and homeruns (12). His production, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 42%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Nearly 50% of the balls he’s put into play in his career have been on the ground. If he were a shortstop, he’d be a Top 50 prospect. But he’s mired at a power-oriented position. I still think he’ll be an above-average big leaguer on the patience/defense combination, but he needs to prove he walk more than 10% of his plate appearances if pitchers aren’t afraid of him.
Scouting Report: As indicated above, I’ve been fairly bearish on Smith’s big league prospect. He’s at the preeminent power position in baseball and…well…doesn’t hit for much power. BUT…he does a lot of other things well. Namely, he owns one of the best hit tools in the minor leagues; he walks a ton; he makes a ton of contact; he fields his position well; and his power is creeping towards respectability. Mark Grace seems like the ideal comparison, but that’s a best case scenario. One more final note: he did trim his groundball rate from nearly 49% to just under 44% last season. But former big leaguer John Jaso seems more likely. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old hitter to post a DRC+ between 137 and 147 with a double-digit walk rate and a sub-15% strikeout rate in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): LaMonte Wade, John Jaso, and Pavin Smith.
Jaso, by the way, owns a career 105 DRC+ mark in nine big league seasons. He was a well above-average hitter in 2012, 2014, and 2015. If Smith’s power bumps up to a 50-grade, his ceiling moves significantly higher.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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10. Blake Walston, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55/60 | 60 | N/A | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Armed with four picks among the top 34 selections, the Diamondbacks dipped into the prep ranks early and often, grabbing high schoolers Corbin Carroll, Blake Walston, and Brennan Malone. Walston, the 26th overall pick, signed for a slightly below-slot deal worth $2.45 million, roughly saving the club $200,000 to spend elsewhere in the draft. A tall, lanky left-hander was previously committed to play ball at N.C. State after posting absurd numbers during his three seasons at New Hanover High School: he fanned 355 hitters in just 227 innings to go along with 0.89 ERA. And that includes a monster senior season when he fanned 137 in only 75.1 innings with a perfect 13-0 record. For those counting at home that’s averaging a little more than 14 punch outs per nine innings. Walston made six brief appearances in the Arizona Summer and Northwest Leagues, throwing 11.0 innings with 17 punch outs and a pair of walks.
Scouting Report: A dynamic two-sport star at New Hanover; Walston, who quarterbacked the school to a 3AA state championship, oozes potential and projectability. Long limbs and a loose, easy arm, Walston’s fastball was sitting 91 mph to 94 mph and should – easily – bump up two ticks as he begins to fill out. His curveball is the stuff of dreams, a true plus offering with late, sharp, hard bite. And his changeup, an easy 0-grade, was better than advertised. Reports had him throwing a slider, though I didn’t see one. Strike throw with the ability to make pitcher’s pitches consistently. Walston’s one of my favorite prep arms in the entire class. If the control / command remains strong he could move quickly.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
