Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 70 | 60 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: Under the captainship of General Manager Alex Anthopoulos, the organization has signed its young stars to long-term, team-friendly deals as well as anyone since John Hart’s Cleveland Indians of the early 1990s. Beyond that, though, Anthopoulos’ Braves have drafted and developed players as well as anyone, including: Michael Harris II, Vaughn Grissom, Spencer Strider (a.k.a. Quadzilla), and Bryce Elder. A.J. Smith-Shawver, perhaps more than anyone not named Strider or Harris, has been the club’s biggest developmental success – especially considering his draft status. Taken in the seventh round of the 2021 midsummer draft, Smith-Shawver offered up plenty of tantalizing potential during his first full minor league season two years ago, posting a 103-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 68.2 innings of work with the Augusta GreenJackets. And while the hard-throwing righty dominated some of the time, no one could have predicted his rocket to the game’s preeminent level in 2023. In short: it was a complete whirlwind for the former Bonus Baby. He made three absurdly good starts in Rome (High-A), two more dominant appearances with Mississippi (Double-A), looked solid in two Triple-A games with Gwinnett, and – BOOM – he’s up in the big leagues. And he looked great, throwing 16.2 teams with 15 Ks, six walks, and a 4.32 ERA. Smith-Shawver spent the rest of the year bouncing between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He finished his minor league season with 15 starts, 62 innings pitched, 79 whiffs, 33 walks, and an aggregate 2.76 ERA. He made another six appearances in the bigs, five of them coming via the start, throwing 25.1 innings with 20 punch outs, 11 walks, and a 4.26 ERA. Not bad work for a 20-year-old former seventh round pick who was drafted just two years earlier.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The former star quarterback owns one of the best arms in the Braves’ farm system with his fastball touching as high as 98 mph. But he commands the offering, as well as the rest of his arsenal, poorly. Smith-Shawver’s slider has the potential to be a plus weapon, but inconsistency issues have made it unreliable at this point in his career. There’s as much potential as any hurler still in Atlanta’s farm system, but it’s going to come down to developing command and a reliable third offering. His athleticism should allow his feel for the strike zone to improve in the coming years.
Scouting Report: If you were to construct the ideal pitching prospect nowadays it might look something like Smith-Shawver: oodles of athleticism, as evidenced by his work on the gridiron at Colleyville Heritage High School; a fastball that can touch the upper 90s; three – three – plus offspeed pitches. The only thing lacking – at least now – is his below-average command, which still projects as a 45-grade tool in the coming years. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander’s fastball generally sits in 93- to 95-mph range with decent life and touched a high of 97 mph during a MiLB game I scouted. His slider is a bonafide swing-and-miss offering, his curveball is just a tick below that. And his fourth offering, a rarely-thrown changeup, might actually end up being his second-best pitch (behind the FB and SL).
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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2. Hurston Waldrep, RHP
| FB | SL | SF | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 55 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: A two-sport star athlete during his prep days at Thomasville High School, Waldrep, who clearly excelled on the diamond, was also a well-regarded punter and placekicker for the football team as well. Ranked by Perfect Game as the fourteenth best righty in in the state of Georgia, Waldrep spent his freshman season working out of Southern Mississippi’s bullpen, throwing 16.1 innings with 16 punch outs and eight free passes to go along with a trio of saves. He moved into the Golden Eagles’ rotation at the start of his sophomore season. And he flourished. Making 17 starts that year, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-hander posted a dominant 140-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 90.0 innings of work, tallying a tidy 3.20 ERA while winning six games. He would make one brief start for the Team USA during the summer, throwing just 2.1 innings with four runs (three earned). Waldrep would transfer to the land of the Gators prior to his junior year. And the production – more or less – remained the same as he moved into the SEC. Across 18 starts, the hard-throwing righty averaged 14 strikeouts and a whopping 4.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a 10-3 win-loss record and a 3.99 ERA. Atlanta snagged the hard-throwing right-hander in the opening round, 24th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3 million, saving the club a little more than a quarter-million dollars of bonus money. After joining the professional ranks, Atlanta sprinkled a little bit of their pitching magic on the Florida ace and then he proceeded to blitz through four levels. He made eight brief appearances between Augusta, Rome, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, throwing 29.1 innings, recording a 41-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a sparkling 1.53 ERA.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, Waldrep’s pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only 10 SEC hurlers averaged at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 75 IP): Paul Skenes, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Asa Lacy, Ethan Small, Zack Thompson, Will Bednar, Doug Nikhazy, and Hurston Waldrep. Only two of those pitchers posted a walk rate north of 4.0 BB/9: Lacy, the enigmatic former first rounder, and Waldrep.
Power-based, three-pitch arsenal. Waldrep attacks hitters with a plus-plus mid- to upper-90s fastball, often touching near triple digits. He’ll complement the offering with a strong above-average upper-80s slider and a borderline plus split-finger fastball. Max effort on every pitch, Hurston’s lack of command / control may eventually push him into a relief role.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: A solid shortstop during his time at the University of Nebraska, the Cornhuskers unleashed their rocket-armed infielder against the competition as reliever during his final season. And he was dominant, saving 10 games while compiling a 34-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.2 innings of work. Combine that with his career best offensive performance (.284/.403/.459) and it’s easy to see how Schwellenbach captured the 2021 John Olerud Award, given to the top two-way player. After joining the Braves as a second round pick, the promising right-hander succumbed to Tommy John surgery and was knocked out of action until last spring. But he quickly made up for any lost developmental time. Schwellenbach made a total of 16 starts between Augusta and Rome, throwing 65.0 innings with 55 strikeouts against just 16 free passes to go along with a combined 2.49 ERA. The former Big10 star missed most of July and August but seemed fine during his three-game stint in the South Atlantic League at the end of the year.
Scouting Report: Now entering his age-24 season with just 13.2 innings above Low-A, Schwellenbach’s a bit behind the norm thanks to his early career Tommy John surgery. But there’s a lot of developmental meat left on the bone due to his lack of pitching experience. Above-average 93- to 94-mph fastball that he commands fairly well and loves to move it around, especially above the belt. Like a lot of the club’s top pitching prospects, Schwellenbach hurls an unfairly good slider, earning a plus-plus grade. He’ll also mix in an average changeup. The Braves are likely to continue stretching Schwellenbach out as a starter, but there’s reliever risk. The ceiling of a #4 with a dominant setup arm as a floor. Barring any injury issues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office push him through several levels in 2024, and a quick stop with the big league club certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility either.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. J.R. Ritchie, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Atlanta opened the 2023 season with one of the weaker – if not the weakest – farm systems in baseball. Years of aggressive promotions combined with deals to bring in established stars left Old Mother Hubbard’s Cupboard pretty bare. But the 2023 season saw several of the club’s more notable youngsters take important developmental leaps forward. Guys like AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Ignacio Alvarez established themselves as potential legitimate big league players. But one of the few guys to take a noticeable step backward – albeit due to injury – was former supplemental first rounder JR Ritchie. Taken with the 35th overall pick two years ago, the Bainbridge High School product got off to an impressive start: he owned a 25-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 13.1 innings, though he coughed up eight earned runs. But his elbow started barking and eventually underwent the knife for Tommy John surgery after his May 6th start against the Cannon Ballers of Kannapolis.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some #3-type upside here. Very, very savvy pick by the Braves.
Scouting Report: I caught Ritchie’s final contest last spring, and I’m assuming it was an elbow issue but he was throwing his slider as his only offspeed offering at that point. Above-average command. Assuming (A) he comes back to full health, (B) he regains his velocity, and (C) still has the feel for his above-average changeup; Ritchie should slide nicely into the back of the Braves’ rotation in a couple years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025 / 2026
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5. Igancio Alvarez, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The front office has proven time and again the ability to find talent beyond the opening round of the draft. And Alvarez, a fifth round pick out of JuCo Riverside City College in 2022, is just another example. The 155th player taken that year, the 5-foot-11, 190-pound shortstop handled an aggressive promotion up to High-A with aplomb last season. Appearing in 116 games with the Rome Braves, Alvarez batted a solid .284/.395/.391 with 24 doubles, seven homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 21 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by a surprising 23%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A season (min. 350 PA): 118 to 128 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 15% to 19%. Those three hitters: Rio Ruiz, Miguel Amaya, and – of course – Ignacio Alvarez. It should be noted that the former two accrued big league time during their respective professional careers.
An absolute wizard at shortstop, Alvarez is among the better infield gloves in all of the minor leagues, owning the potential to at least be among those listed as potential Gold Glovers. The leatherwork itself is good enough to guarantee at least some time in the Bigs. Ignacio offers up a contact-oriented approach at the plate, showing doubles power, a patient approach, and a bit of speed. There’s starting caliber potential here, largely based on his glove, but there could be some if he adds strength.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Luis Guanipa, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The Braves quietly pushed their chips to the center of the table last offseason when they became infatuated with Venezuelan centerfielder Luis Guanipa, handing the then 17-year-old a massive $2.5 million bonus. They used roughly 47% of their total bonus pool on the toolsy teenager. A few months after joining the organization, Guanipa debuted with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate, though the results didn’t match the hype. Appearing in 46 games in the extremely hitter-friendly league, the 5-foot-11, 188-pounder batted .238/.361/.384 with 11 doubles, one triple, four homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 4%.
Scouting Report: Guanipa actually got off to a scorching start to his professional career last summer as he mashed .328/.408/.552 with six doubles and three homeruns throughout his first 16 games. But something happened during his June 30th games that knocked him out of the lineup after just two plate appearances. When he returned to action he was hardly the same player, hitting .181/.328/.276 over his final 30 games. Nothing was reported – and he was hit by a pitch – but something seemed to have happened. He has a shot to be plus-power / plus-speed type of player. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in Low-A at some point in 2024. A lot of Boom / Bust potential here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2026 / 2027
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7. Drake Baldwin, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The first bat the organization took during the 2022 draft. Everything came together for the lefty-swinging backstop that season as he mashed .341/.448/.647 with career bests in doubles (14) and homers (19). But his stick cooled considerably during his debut with Augusta as he batted a disappointing .247/.396/.284 in 21 games in Low-A. Undeterred by his early struggles, the front office immediately shoved him up to High-A at the start of 2023. And he more than held his own. Baldwin slugged .260/.385/.466 with 25 doubles, one triple, and 14 homeruns. Atlanta bumped him up to Mississippi in September, but that stay lasted less than three weeks before he finished out the season in Triple-A. Altogether, the former Missouri State Bear hit .270/.385/.460 with 26 doubles, one triple, and 16 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 32%. Not too shabby.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The swing is a bit long. He finally developed above-average power during his final season at Missouri State University. Baldwin’s strong and can take outside pitches the opposite way for homeruns. Solid eye at the plate with a track record of consistent contact rates. Baldwin could grow into a bat-first backup option.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in a High-A season (min. 350 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+, a walk rate north of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 18% to 22%. Those four hitters: Nolan Reimold, Abel Nieves, Nathan Martorella, and Drake Baldwin.
Almost universally pegged as a bat-first backstop, Baldwin’s defensive game took positive strides forward last season to the point where he projects as an above-average glove at the game’s most demanding position. Baldwin continued to show an advanced, patient approach at the plate as he walked in more than 14% of his appearances last season. Average power. Solid contact rates. The ability to handle lefties and righties well. He’s tracking like a low end starter. A tremendous job by the front office for unearthing him in the third round a couple years ago.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Owen Murphy, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Atlanta opened up their 2022 draft class by taking pitchers with their first four picks, including nabbing three straight high schoolers. Snagged with their opening pick two years ago, 20th overall, Murphy made 18 starts with Augusta before wrapping up the year with a trio of appearances with Rome. Overall, the Riverside-Brookfield High School product finished the year with 21 starts, throwing 89.2 innings of work, recording a 113-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He compiled an aggregate 4.72 ERA and a significantly better 3.66 FIP. For his young career he’s averaging 11.5 punch outs and 3.4 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Murphy looks like a #3/#4-type arm. Prior to the draft I had a second round grade on him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in a season (min. 60 IP): a strikeout percentage north of 30% with a walk percentage between 8% and 10%. Those three hurlers: Grayson Rodriguez, Drew Rom, and – of course – Owen Murphy.
Unfortunately for Atlanta and their fans, Murphy is more Drew Rom than Grayson Rodriguez. And, to be frank, I was disappointed when I watched Murphy last season – mainly with his fastball. His heater was only sitting in the 90 range, below-average in today’s high octane world, but his overall command allows it to play up into average territory. He complements – or supports – it with a big bending 75 mph above-average curveball and an average slider. Reports indicate an average changeup, though I didn’t see one. Murphy’s just two years into his professional career, but he’s riding the line between a potential starter / bullpen arm already – unless he finds some of that once-project velocity.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Cade Kuehler, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Campbell University has turned into to a little baseball hotbed in the past couple years. The Fighting Camels have had three first round picks since 2019: Seth Johnson (Tampa Bay Rays, 40th overall, 2019), Tom Harrington (Pittsburgh Pirates, 36th overall, 2022), and Zach Neto (Los Angeles Angels, 13th overall, 2022). And that doesn’t include Cedric Mullins, a 13th round pick in 2015. Cade Kuehler, a hefty right-hander from Cuthbertson High School, is the next notable Camel. A three-year member of the school’s starting rotation, Kuehler was able to parlay his sophomore success – he averaged nearly 12 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 – into a couple brief stints in the Cape Cod League and with Team USA. Last season, the 6-foot, 215-pound righty was even better. Making 13 starts for the Big South Conference squad, he whiffed 91 and walked just 26 to go along with an 8-1 win-loss record and a 2.71 ERA. Atlanta selected him in the second round, 70th overall, signing him to a deal worth a smidgeon over $1 million.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, there are six instances in which a Big South hurler averaged at least 11 strikeouts every nine innings in a season (min. 70 IP): Mason Miller, Matt Fraudin, Mike Morrison, Andre Scrubb, and Cade Kuehler, who accomplished it twice.
Thick bodied right-hander who hides the ball incredibly well before attacking hitters from a high arm slot. While the arsenal is solid – low- to mid-90s fastball, above-average slider, and an average curveball and changeup – Kuehler has reliever vibes. The command isn’t great. He lacks a true wipeout pitch. Dan Straily vibes if he lands with the right organization.”
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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10. Drue Hackenberg, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Miller School of Albemarle may not be a traditional baseball hotbed, per se, but the school does boast (A) an extensive history on the diamond and (B) should-be Hall of Fame big leaguer. The Charlottesville, Virginia-based college preparatory played their first baseball game all the way back in 1882, winning 55-0 against the Fishbourne Military School. And the school’s current baseball head coach is none other than fireballing lefty closer Billy Wagner, owner of 422 saves. Hackenberg, who spent his final two seasons at Miller under the tutelage of Wagner, comes from an entire family of athletes: his older brother, Christian, was drafted in the second round by the New York Jets in 2016; his other brother, Brandon, was a first round pick by Orlando City SC in the 2021 MLS draft, and his other brother, Adam, was an 18th round pick by the White Sox three years ago. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander spent the last two seasons in the Hokies’ rotation. He opened up his first collegiate season by throwing 92.2 innings of work, averaging 8.4 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings while posting a 10-2 win-loss record. Last season, Hackenberg made 15 starts for Virginia Tech, tallying an impressive 99-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio but – somehow – he finished the year with an unsightly 5.80 ERA. Atlanta grabbed the Virginia Tech ace in the second round, 59th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,997,500.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2011, only four ACC hurlers averaged between 10 and 11 K/9 with a walk rate between 2.5 BB/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in a season (min. 75 IP): Carlos Rodon, Bryan Radziewski, Cole Sands, and – of course – Drue Hackenberg.
A bit of surprising pick in the second round. Hackenberg sports a three pitch-mix: a 93- to 95-mph, above-average fastball, a high spinning, low- to mid-80s slider, and a power changeup that lacks a lot of velocity separation. Hackenberg’s fastball spins at an above-average rate, as well as shows some solid arm-side run, but it looked far too hittable during his final season. Like his fastball, the right-hander’s slider spins above-average (2700- to 2900-RPMs) and will miss a handful of bats. Average changeup. He’s a strike-throwing machine, but lacks above-average command. Hackenberg has a similar ceiling as former Braves farmhand Aaron Blair. The Braves are going to push him through quickly.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
