Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Jordan Lawlar, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Arizona got hot at the right time and rode that wave straight to a World Series appearance, their first in more than 20 years. But what makes that all the more impressive is the sheer amount of talent on the roster that’s been homegrown or – at the bare minimum – spent time within their system. Guys like: Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Kevin Ginkel, Merrill Kelly (that’s more of a technicality, I suppose, since they signed him out of the KBO), Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry. That’s a lot of talent the farm system’s burped up that past couple of years. Despite the big exodus from the minor league affiliates, Arizona’s farm system still has a handful of young, intriguing prospects, headlined by a pair of high-ceiling former high school draft picks. Taken with the sixth overall pick in a loaded frontend the 2021 draft class, Jordan Lawlar was one of eleven shortstops to hear their names called in the opening round that summer. Lawlar, by the way, was the second one to go off the board. The Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas product (that’s quite a mouthful) turned in an awesome first full season in the minor leagues two years ago as he slugged .303/.401/.509 while making four stops. And that doesn’t include his brief, albeit nonetheless impressive, stint in the Arizona Fall League either (.278/.469/.528). The 6-foot-1, 190-pound shortstop spent the majority of last season battling – and passing – the Double-A test, hitting .263/.366/.474 with 41 extra-base hits in only 89 games with Amarillo. Lawlar spent another (successful) couple of weeks in the PCL before the front office called him up in early September. His bat – finally – cooled at that point (.129/.206/.129).
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: As expected, Lawlar’s defense is fringy average, but it’s decent enough to keep him at the most important position on the infield dirt. But when it comes to Lawlar it’s not really about the leather, is it? He has a significant chance of claiming the big league club’s shortstop gig some point late in 2023.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Double-A, his longest stint last season, consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 20-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 117 to 127 wRC+ and a 20.5% to 22.5% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Anthony Rizzo and Jordan Lawlar.
Just for fun:
| Name | Season | Team | Level | Age | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 2010 | BOS | AA | 20 | 467 | 0.263 | 0.334 | 0.481 | 0.815 | 0.217 | 9.64% | 21.41% |
| Jordan Lawlar | 2023 | ARI | AA | 20 | 410 | 0.263 | 0.366 | 0.474 | 0.840 | 0.211 | 11.46% | 21.71% |
The question I had coming into the year, as noted in last year’s Handbook, was how well the hit tool was going to play out. The former early first rounder dealt with some questionable swing-and-miss issues during his 2022 campaign, but he seemed to calm his approach last season. He whiffed in just 20.6% of his minor league plate appearances in 2023. And even in a small sample size in Triple-A – just 16 games – Lawlar’s metrics didn’t raise any major red flags. He had a Chase Rate of just 21% and an In Zone Whiff Rate of just 15% during his time with Reno. While scouting him during his PCL stint, Lawlar showed a solid knack for connecting on low-and-away breaking balls, which was another previously expressed concern. The hit tool may never ascend to an above-average skill, but it’s going to be rock solid. Throw in above-average power and plus speed and Lawlar has the makings of a perennial All-Star. His defense won’t win him any awards, but it’s enough leather to keep him at the position. In terms of big league production, think: .275/.340/.460.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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2. Druw Jones, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/40 | 30/60 | 70 | 50 | 70 | 60 |
Background: Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday. Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones. Back-and-forth heading into the 2022 draft. Baltimore at #1, Arizona #2. There was a time that Jones looked like a surefire bet to go with the top overall pick. But the Orioles pulled a fast one and went with Matt’s kid instead of Andruw’s. And that’s the start of the two young top prospects diverging paths. Holliday’s rocketed up the prospect charts, going all the way up to the best in baseball. Jones, on the other hand, had his debut curtailed due to a left shoulder issue that popped up during BP, which placed a pause on his highly anticipated professional debut. Then the former #2 overall pick missed several months due to some nagging lower body injuries last season, according to MLB.com. The front office brass originally sent Jones up to Low-A to begin the year, but after missing half of April, all of May, and a few weeks in June, he was sent to the Complex League for a brief rehab assignment. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound centerfielder appeared in 29 games with the Visalia Rawhide, batting .252/.366/.351 with three doubles, one triple, a pair of long balls, and half-a-dozen stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jones will forever be compared to his father. The young center fielder doesn’t possess the sheer power of his old man, but he’s more fleet of foot.
Scouting Report: Basically a year-and-a-half into his professional career, we still don’t have a solid idea on what type of hitter Jones is, or likely will be. The power hasn’t really shown up in games and he’s swinging and missing more than you’d like. But, again, he’s coming back from a shoulder issue and missed a lot of time. Then he gets hampered by the leg / lower body issues. Watching tape, it is clear Jones didn’t feel – or look – comfortable in the box at all. This could be completely out-of-left-field, but I really think he’s going to have issues with quality breaking balls, like career damning issues. It’s like he’s taking defensive swings and not attacking the baseball. Hopefully, I’m wrong. The defense played out as expected, plus to plus-plus. But, again, the bat. Jones absolutely needs to answer the call with the hit tool in 2024. I have to be honest: I feel like I’m crazy writing this, but I think I’m off the Druw Jones bandwagon.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2027
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3. Yu-Min Lin, LHP
| FB | CB | CU | SF | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 55 | 65 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: The articles declaring Lin’s professional contract with Arizona all note his impressive run with Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Cup U23, specially his pair of games vs. Cuba and Venezuela. The slight-framed lefty twirled 8 and two-thirds innings against the powerhouse countries, fanning 14 for his eventual sixth place finishing ball club. Arizona swooped in two years ago, signing Lin to a deal with a half-million-dollar bonus. The 5-foot-11, 160-pound left-hander would make his stateside debut a few months later, throwing 56.1 innings with 91 strikeouts and just 22 free passes to go along with a tidy 2.72 ERA. Last season, Lin made stops at two different levels again, this time High-A for 13 starts and another 11 games with the Amarillo Sod Poodles in Double-A. He would toss 121.1 innings, averaging 10.4 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.92 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Scouting Report: A crafty southpaw that pitches like a 10-year vet. If the scouting reports are correct, Lin possesses as deep of an arsenal as there is in minor league baseball. Lin’s more of strike-thrower than quality strike-thrower at this point, but that’s likely to improve in the coming years. It wouldn’t be shocking to him reach Double-A late in 2023.
Scouting Report: One of the more intriguing windups in baseball. And that’s saying something. Without any runners on base, the crafty lefty starts on the mound, facing home plate. After getting the sign he’ll begin his motion by turning towards first base, taking a step forward towards the bag, lift his right leg and proceed home. Beyond that, Lin’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He’s incredibly crafty, throwing as many five, six, maybe even seven different pitches. Really, only he knows. And he commands them all well. Average, low-90s fastball that he moves around as well as any young pitcher. His best overall offering is fantastically diabolical changeup (that may actual be a splitter). It’s a bonafide swing-and-miss offering that generates a lot of weak contact when hitters can touch it. He also mixes in an above-average curveball and a matching cut fastball. There may be a slider mixed in as well. Given his age, he was only 19-years-old and spent a good portion of the year in Double-A, Lin is pitching-wise well beyond his years. As long as he’s not struck by the injury bug, he’s a very safe bet to reach league average production in the next two years. I really like him – a lot.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. Tommy Troy, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45/50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The most successful ballplayer to come out of Los Gatos High School is none than Hal Chase. A suspected (notorious) gambler who may have been “on the take”, Chase finished his 15-year career as a .291/.319/.391 hitter, earning more than 20 wins above replacement (both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs). Since Chase, the California-based school has churned out a total of two big league hitters: Mike Couchee, owner of two plate appearances at the game’s pinnacle level, and Logan Schafer, a five-year veteran with 318 games on his resume. Tommy Troy, a sweet swinging shortstop from Stanford, hopes to add his name to the list. The 5-foot-10, 197-pound middle infielder turned in a solid, sometimes great debut showing for The Cardinal in 2021 as a true freshman, flashing impressive power (six doubles and 10 homeruns) while battling some swing-and-miss issues (25.8% K-rate). Troy’s production improved during his first foray in the vaunted Cape Cod League that summer as he batted .299/.364/.479 with 10 extra-base knocks and only 25 punch outs in 133 plate appearances. He continued to swing a hot stick during his sophomore season with Stanford as well, slugging .339/.371/.568 with 15 doubles, three triples, seven homeruns, and five stolen bases (though he was somehow thrown out eight times). And, once again, he spent the summer back in The Cape: .310/.386/.531. Last season Troy raised his offensive prowess to a whole other stratosphere as he mashed .394/.478/.699 with career bests in doubles (17), triples (four), homeruns (17), stolen bases (17), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (41-to-34). Arizona drafted Troy in the opening round, 12th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4.4 million. The young shortstop batted .271/.374/.469 with 10 extra-base hits between the Complex League (four games) and High-A (23 games).
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only three Pac-12 hitters slugged at least .390/.470/.700 in a season (min. 250 PA): Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and – of course – Tommy Troy. For those counting at home, that’s the first and third overall picks in the 2019 MLB Draft. But here’s a question: Since 2010, who’s the best professional hitter Stanford has developed? To be fair, there’s a group of similarly performing sticks: Nico Hoerner, Tommy Edman, and Stephen Piscotty.
Troy possesses quick hands and twitchy movements on defense, but the actual [realized] value is average at best. At the plate, the infield vagabond takes a two-strike approach for each pitch: slightly choked up, very short, quick swing. His approach is more geared towards line drives and it’s doubtful he hits for as much power in the professional ranks as he did during his collegiate career. The hit tool is going to have to carry him far.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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5. Jansel Luis, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 45/55 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Signed off the international scene mid-January two years ago, Luis was one of the best bats on the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate that summer. Splitting time between their Red and Black squads, the switch-hitting middle infielder mashed .345/.399/.414 with seven doubles, one triple, one homerun, and nine stolen bases. Last season, Luis once again spent time on their Red and Black teams, though this time he moved stateside to the Arizona Complex League. He would bat an aggregate .287/.370/.479. He also spent 36 games in the California League too, batting .257/.310/.471 with five doubles, three triples, and four homeruns.
Scouting Report: Luis owns such a loose, easy swing with impressive bat speed, particularly for a teenager. But the switch-hitting middle infielder also takes an aggressive approach at the plate, often times swinging early and often. The 6-foot, 170-pound Dominican prospect is just beginning to tap into his power, which may creep into above-average territory in the coming years. Defensively, the twitchy infielder looked solid on both sides of the keystone, but has the potential to be a solid shortstop as well. There are some exciting (future) tools here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2027
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6. Jorge Barrosa, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40 | 60 | 50 | 70 | 45 |
Background: Barrosa must be aging a lot quicker than the normal kid in his early 20s. At least, that’s if you believe his online biographies from reliable sites. Why? Because he’s shrinking. The pint-sized centerfielder lost four inches over the past year. Barrosa’s reported height was 5-foot-9 heading into the year. Now, though, he’s checking in at 5-foot-5. Either way, though, he continues to be a dynamic offensive and defensive player in the Diamondbacks’ system. And last year he turned in another strong showing as he spent the season squaring off against the Pacific Coast League competition – often coming out victorious. Appearing in 120 contests with the Reno Aces, the now (correctly?) listed 5-foot-5, 165-pound outfielder slugged .274/.394/.456 with 20 doubles, eight triples, 13 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a rock solid 10%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the best defensive players at any position in the minor leagues, Barrosa’s glove work and speed guarantees him at least a bench option at the big league level.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 15.5% to 17.5% strikeout rate, and a walk rate north of 14%. Those two hitters: J.P. Crawford and Jorge Barrosa.
The conversation is – and will always – begin with Barrosa’s defense. It’s spectacular. It’s elite. It’s enough to keep him in the big leagues as a starting option. So let’s talk about the offense: It’s a good hit tool, not great, not bad, just good. Barrosa chases a bit, 27% last season, but not a lot. He swings-and-misses a bit, 21% in 2023, but not a lot. His hard hit rate in Triple-A, 34%, is about the big league average, so he packs a bit of a punch but not too much. There’s certainly enough of a foundation in place to a very solid, sometimes very good, big league player. In terms of production, think: .260/.320/.390 with Gold Glove defense.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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7. Cristian Mena, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 50/55 | N/A | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: Continuingwith the organizational theme of under-the-radar prospects, Cristian Mena slinkedhis way into Triple-A last season, joining Braves top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver as the only hurlers under the age of 21 to throw at least 10 innings at the level. Another one of the club’s high profile international free agents, Mena – of course – was placed on the Rapid Developmental Program that club’s always favored. He reached Double-A, the minors’ meat grinder, in 2022 at (A) just 19-years-old and (B) in just his second professional season. Last season, to no one’s surprise, Mena wrapped up the final weeks of the season in Triple-A. He would make 27 starts between Birmingham and Charlotte, throwing 133.2 innings with an impressive 156-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio (10.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9). He compiled a 4.85 ERA. (Post-production note: Arizona acquired Mena in a one-for-one trade that sent outfielder Dominic Fletcher to the White Sox.)
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the most unheralded pitching prospects in the game – at least temporarily. Mena has everything you look for in a young arm: size (6-foot-2 and 200 pounds), athleticism, reasonable feel for the strike zone, at least one quality offspeed pitch (and in this instance two potentially plus breaking balls), and production against older competition.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 26% with one club in Double-A (min. 100 IP): Phil Hughes, Chris Tillman, and – of course – Cristian Mena.
Very solid repertoire for a young hurler: 92- to 94-mph fastball that’s on the high end of average; an above-average low-80s curveball that’s a bit inconsistent; a plus power mid-80s slider; and a decent little upper-80s changeup. The latter is intriguing because it lacks a lot of velocity separation, but it’s heavy with sink. The command hasn’t quite caught up – it’s still in the 40-ish range – but there’s a chance that it creeps into average territory as he matures. He’s a high floor, low ceiling hurler.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Gino Groover, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A product of The Walker School, home to former big league hurler David Hale, Groover got off to a tremendous start to his collegiate career with UNC Charlotte in 2021 as he mashed .351/.381/.489 with 14 doubles and four homeruns in 54 contests. But the Georgia-born infielder’s production cratered in the Northwoods League that summer. Appearing in 29 games with the Wisconsin Woodchucks, Groover hit a mediocre .265/.379/.316 with just five doubles. Prior to the star of his sophomore season, the 6-foot-2, 212-pound defensive vagabond transferred from Conference USA and into the ACC, joining the Wolfpack of N.C. State. And he shined. Brightly. In 57 games with his new school, Groover slugged .364/.440/.568 while leading the team in doubles (16) to go along with a triple, 10 homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases. He was named Second Team All-ACC for his performance. He also made a (very) brief jaunt through the vaunted Cape Cod League that summer as well, hitting .222/.300/.222 in just eight games with the Harwich Mariners. He also spent some time with the National Team as well. Last season, Groover remained eerily consistent at the plate at he batted .332/.430/.546 with eight doubles, one triple, a career best 13 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted him in the second round, 48th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1.78 million. He hit .283/.348/.394 during his abbreviated debut.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2011, there have been 25 instances in which an ACC player batted at least .320/.420/.520 with more walks than strikeouts in a season (min. 250 PA). And the list includes a lot of notable early round and / or big leaguers including: Colin Moran, Seth Beer, Zack Collins, Pavin Smith, Cal Raleigh, Adam Haseley, Matt Thaiss, Trea Turn, James Ramsey, Mark Zagunis, and Josh Stowers.
Groover looks – at least, physically – like he should possess above-average power. He’s well-built and athletic, but he still hasn’t quite tapped into a consistent, above-average power surge that’s brewing within. He has no trouble turning on inside pitches. Above-average hit tool, 45-grade current power. Groover’s bounced around the diamond quite a bit, seeing time at both corners in the infield and outfield, as well as at the keystone. He’s slow-footed, but surprisingly agile in the field. High baseball IQ.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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9. Cristofer Torin, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 30/40 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A native of Acarigua, Venezuela, the front office brass signed the 5-foot-10, 155-pound middle infielder to a deal worth $240,000 in late January two years ago. A few months later, the organization sent Torin to the Dominican Summer League to begin his professional career. And it looks like it’s going to be a very solid career, at least on the onset. Appearing in 50 DSL games, the teenage infielder batted .333/.465/.434 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 21 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). Torin opened up last in the stateside rookie league, but after slugging .320/.437/.427 with three doubles, one triple, a pair of homeruns, and 15 stolen bases in 26 games. The player development shot callers pushed the then-18-year-old up to Visalia in mid-July for the remainder of the year. He put together a disappointing .236/.314/.300 slash line in 39 games with the Rawhide. Overall, Torin finished his second professional season with an aggregate .272/.369/.354 line with four doubles, two triples, four homeruns, and 21 stolen bases (in 25 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 3% below the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Physically mature for a teenage infielder, Torin doesn’t project to add much in the coming years. The Venezuelan youngster shows an advanced feel at the plate and a strong aptitude for the borders of the strike zone. Torin doesn’t figure to develop anything more than below-average power, but he’s going to rely heavily on his bat-to-ball skills and will likely prove to be very difficult to strikeout as he moves up the minor league ladder. He continues to show a knack for fighting off quality pitches. Defensively, the early metrics are strong on Torin’s performance on either side of second base. The development of power will ultimately prove to be the separating factor between a utility role and starter. For now, I’m inclined to project him as a solid backup infielder, but there’s enough to point that this is an overly conservative assessment.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
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10. Kristian Robinson, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 55/60 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant past, Kristian Robinson was viewed as a top prospect in baseball. Nearly every major publication ranked the Bahamian outfielder as a consensus Top 100 prospect with at least one outlet ranking him among the Top 20 minor leaguers heading into the 2021 season. And then, well, things happened. As documented on MLB.com, Robinson dealt with mental health issues and, unfortunately, assaulted a police officer in 2020. Then legal and visa issues kept him out of action until last season. But the former bonus baby, who joined the organization during the summer of 2017, picked up right where he left off on the diamond. The front office brass sent Robinson back to Low-A, a level he spent part of his age-18 season in, to restart his career once he overcame a hamstring injury. He responded with a .276/.397/.440 slash line 32 games. Robinson moved up to High-A in mid-July, but after slugging .265/.359/.441 over his first 10 games, he would miss a few weeks before popping back up in the Complex League for a quick detour. He would take another quick jaunt through Low-A before finishing up in Double-A.
Scouting Report: Robinson always displayed an incredible balance of tools, production, and potential during his brief start to his professional career. But there were some questions on how well the hit tool was going to develop. Four years later much the same can be said: despite the extended layoff, Robinson flashed above-average power, speed, and solid defense, but the hit tool raised some red flags. He whiffed 86 times in 272 plate appearances (31.6% of the time). Sure, some of this can be attributed to the years-long gap in games, but not all of it. I was a big believer in Robinson years ago, and there’s still the ability to be an impact player at the big league level. In terms of production, think something along the lines of .240/.310/.440. It’s not necessarily All-Star production, but it’s definitely going to be useful to an organization.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High to Very High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
