Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects for 2024

Date:

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.

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1. Jackson Holliday, SS

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7050/55555550/5570

Background: There are family bloodlines, and there are family bloodlines. Jackson Holliday comes from family bloodlines. The sweet-swinging shortstop’s grandfather, Tom Holliday, was a long-time Head Coach for the baseball team at Oklahoma State University. The lefty-swinging infielder’s uncle, former minor leaguer Josh Holliday, is the current Head Coach for the school’s baseball team. And his dad is seven-time MLB All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner Matt Holliday. Oh, yeah, his younger brother, Ethan, is viewed as one of the best high school players in the nation. Now that is a bloodline. So it’s no surprise that Jackson Holliday, the #1 overall pick just two years ago, has climbed through the minor leagues so quickly, so efficiently, like a shark’s fin cutting through calm waters. After signing his name on the dotted line for a hefty $8,190,000 bonus, Holliday bashed .297/.489/.422 in 20 games between the Florida Complex League and Low-A. Last season, barely a year-and-a-half outside of high school, Holliday continued his assault on any pitcher standing in his way. He slugged .396/.522/.660 in 14 games in the Carolina League. He mashed .314/.452/.488 in 57 contests with the Aberdeen IronBirds in High-A. His 36-game cameo in the fires of Double-A did nothing to slow his bat as he slugged .338/.421/.507. He was then promoted up to Triple-A for the last few weeks of the year and then – and only then – did the supremely gifted youngster look human – almost (.267/.396/.400). The 6-foot, 185-pound future face of the franchise finished the year off with an aggregate .323/.442/.499 slash line with 30 doubles, nine triples, 12 homeruns, and 24 stolen bases (in 33 total attempts). His aggregate production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, blew past the league average threshold by a whopping 59%.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Beautiful left-handed swing that’s going to spray line drives from foul line to foul line without too much bais. There’s a chance the hit tool develops into a perennial .300 hitter during his peak in the professional ranks. Holliday isn’t going to hit mammoth homeruns, but he should hit 20 dingers that leave the park in a hurry. Defensively, he has the chops to stay at the position. Smooth, quick, not flashy. He’s a blue-collar shortstop that has a chance to grade out as above-average.

Scouting Report: With respect to Holliday’s time in High-A, his longest stint of the year, consider the following:

Since 2006, only one 19-year-old hitter – Jackson Holliday – posted a wRC+ mark north of 160 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA).

Continuing:

Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters – Jackson Holliday and Byron Buxton – posted a wRC+ mark north of 150 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA).

Continuing:

Since 2006, only five 19-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ mark north of 140 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA): Jackson Holliday, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Heliot Ramos

One final note:

Ignoring Jackson, only one of those players, Ramos, hasn’t gone on to develop into an All-Star player at the game’s pinnacle level.

A year after the draft, it’s incredible to think that any other player was in the conversation for the top pick in the draft. To be frank, Jackson Holliday’s as close to a perfect prospect as possible: plus-plus hit tool, tremendous pitch recognition, speed, defense at a premium position, handles lefties and righties equally well, average power with the potential to creep into 55-grade territory. It’s scary to think how the Orioles are set on the left side of the infield with Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson for a decade. Big league line: .320/.410/.500.

Ceiling: 7.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2024

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2. Samuel Basallo, C/1B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
55/6050/5545/30555060

Background: Signedoff the international free agency market in mid-January three years ago. The front office handed the 6-foot-3, 180-pound backstop / first baseman a $1.3 million bonus, which, according to MLB Pipeline, was the largest the organization had given out to an international free agent — at that time, at least. The early returns on Basallo were a bit disappointing as he batted .239/.338/.410 in 41 games with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate. The following year, 2022, Basallo moved stateside into the Complex League and looked much improved: he hit .279/.350/.424 as one of the level’s youngest regulars. Last season, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native turned in a massive breakout campaign, moving from Low-A up to High-A, and he even spent a little bit of time with Bowie in the Eastern League – at the ripe ol’ age of 18. The former Bonus Baby put together a sizzling .313/.402/.551 slash line with 26 doubles, seven triples, 20 homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases (in 17 total attempts). His overall production, as calculated by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a mindboggling 62%. Again, he was 18-years-old and reached Double-A. That can’t be understated.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Long and wiry with a bit of a soft body, Basallo’s swing is geared toward jacking homeruns. Above-average bat speed. But theirs is some concern that he outgrows the catching position, so first base may be the only logical landing spot. He’s very, very raw behind the plate as it stands, anyways. He could be primed for a big season with the bat in 2023.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only five 18-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ mark between 145 and 155 with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jon Singleton, and – of course – Samuel Basallo.

Basallo approaches at bats like a 10-year big league veteran, not an 18-year-old kid battling against vastly older competition. He is destined to get slapped with the “Professional Hitter” label at some point in his career. Sweet left-handed swing that is going to be good for strong batting averages, plenty of doubles, and 20 or so homeruns annually. The bat is a premium behind the dish, where his defense improved dramatically from the previous year, but the stick will ultimately play anywhere. The kid just rakes, man. In terms of big league production, think: .280/.350/.440. The ceiling improves dramatically if he can stay behind the plate.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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3. Coby Mayo, 3B

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506030504555

Background: It truly is amazing how well the Orioles have drafted – and developed – players since Mike Elias took over at the helm. Take, for example, the COVID-limited 2020 draft. It was easy to swing-and-miss on prospects at any point in the process. Limited scouting reports, wrecked amateur seasons. It was the perfect storm for mistake making. And, somehow, the Orioles’ brass navigated the rough waters with ease. They hit on their first two picks (Heston Kjerstad and Jordan Westburg). Coby Mayo, their fourth round pick that summer, has been a consensus Top 100 prospect.  And that doesn’t include the potential value from second rounder Hudson Haskin or fifth round Carter Baumler, either. Mayo split that see between Bowie and Norfolk, slugging .290/.410/.564 with career bests in doubles (45), triples (three), and homeruns (29). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, smashed past the league average mark by a whopping 56%.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Plus-plus raw power that he’s just starting to pull into games. There isn’t a ballpark in the world that can contain one of his prodigious blasts.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, there are 218 instances in which a 21-year-old hitter accrued 325 or more plate appearances with one club in any Double-A league. Coby Mayo’s 178 wRC+ mark is tops among the list – by a wide margin. The runner-up, Joc Pederson, was 22-percentage points below Mayo.

In any given year, any farm system would be lucky have Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Enrique Bradfield, or Coby Mayo sitting atop their Top 20 list. At this point, it’s just an embarrassment of riches for the Orioles. To put it frankly, Mayo’s a better version of Ryan Mountcastle. The former fourth rounder’s batted ball data in Triple-A is pretty solid: he’ll swing-and-miss a little too much in the strike zone, but won’t look outside the zone all that often either. His hit tool is likely going to keep his batting averages in the .260 range at the big league level, but there’s 25-plus homerun pop and some solid OBPs to be had. Defensively, he plays third base like a hulking first baseman.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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4. Heston Kjerstad, 1B/OF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
45/505530505055

Background: As the old saying goes, “Good things come to those who wait.” And wait the Orioles did. For nearly two years. After Baltimore’s brass used the second overall pick in the 2020 COVID-limited draft, it would take the former Arkansas Razorback two full years before he would make his professional debut. The cause: myocarditis, inflammation of the heart, which was undiagnosed heading into the midsummer draft but discovered during the physical portion following it. As each month faded into the next, it was easy to forget about Heston Kjerstad, but almost immediately upon getting the green light the 6-foot-3, 205-pound corner outfielder has done nothing but hit. And hit. And hit. He split time between Delmarva and Aberdeen during his abbreviated debut two years ago, batting an aggregate .309/.394/.457 in 65 contests. Following the season he caught fire in the heat of the Arizona Fall League, slugging .357/.385/.622 with 15 extra-base knocks in only 22 contests with the Scottsdale Scorpions. Last season, Kjerstad continued his assault on the minor leagues as he manhandled the Eastern and International Leagues competition to the tune of .303/.376/.528 with 29 doubles, eight triples, 21 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in nine attempts). His overall production in the minors, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 33% above the league average mark. Kjerstad appeared in 13 games with the Orioles as well, batting .233/.281/.467 with a doubles and two dingers.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Very similar swing as former All-Star Sean Casey. Kjerstad also showed a surprising amount of agility in right field as well. He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakouts in 2023. After his strong AFL, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the O’s push him directly up to Double-A at the start of year.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 24-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 300 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a 7% to 9% walk rate, and a 19.5% to 21.5% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Danny Dorn (no relation to Roger), and – of course – Heston Kjerstad.

Yet another one of the club’s promising, big league ready bats that can step in today. Kjerstad looked solid during his Triple-A debut in 2023, but there are some pockmarks to his game: namely, his willingness to expand the strike zone. Per culled Statcast data, Kjerstad would chase offerings outside the zone 37% of the time, roughly 30% above the MLB average. Kjerstad still looks like a Sean Casey clone at the plate, though the hit tool won’t ever ascend to that status. Plus-plus raw power. Kjerstad lost a ton of development time, so there’s hope he can continue to make adjustments.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023

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5. Enrique Bradfield, CF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
5030/4080558055

Background: American Heritage High School, based out of Plantation, Florida, has had several notable ballplayers stroll through its hallowed halls, including: Eric Hosmer, who was the third overall pick in 2008, Triston Casas, Shaun Anderson, Zack Collins, Deven Marrero, Darnell Sweeney, Mark Vientos, and Antoan Richardson. Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s name certainly belongs on the list as well. Ranked as the nation’s 13th best outfielder by Perfect Game during his prep days, Bradfield stepped into Vanderbilt’s lineup as a true freshman and immediately became a key cog for one of the top programs in the country. The slashing centerfielder batted .336/.451/.414 with eight doubles, four triples, one homerun, and 47 stolen bases, the highest total among all Division I players. He would eventually be named SEC Freshman of the Year, as well as a consensus All-American, and Freshman All-American. Bradfield’s sophomore campaign was much the same: he hit .317/.415/.498 with 10 doubles, five triples, eight homeruns, and 46 swipes, which tied for second among all D1 players. He spent the ensuing summer splitting time with Team USA (.190/.370/.381 in seven games) and the Cotuit Kettleers in the Cape Cod League (.194/.348/.194 in 11 games). Last season, Bradfield’s production took a noticeable step backwards as he batted a career worst .279/.410/.429 with 13 doubles, two triples, six homeruns, and 37 stolen bases. Baltimore snagged the speedy centerfielder in the opening round, 17th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4,169,700. He made brief stops in the Complex, Carolina, and South Atlantic Leagues during his debut, batting .291/.473/.329 with three doubles and a whopping 25 stolen bases (in 27 attempts) in only 25 games.    

Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:

“There’s no such thing as stealing first base, but Bradfield’s incredibly patient approach is the next best thing. An absolute grinder at the dish, the speedy centerfielder’s finished each of his three seasons in the SEC with more walks than strikeouts. He’s a difference maker on the base paths and in the outfield. The question for Bradfield, though, is he going to hit enough in the professional ranks? Very mechanical swing, almost robotic-like where he’s going through the various stages in his head before actually moving. The Commodore star has made noticeable tweaks to his approach between his sophomore and junior seasons. Two years ago he shifted his weight back entirely off his front foot and would uncoil like a lurching snake. This season it’s a lot stiffer with less movement and a wider base. At the very least, Bradfield profiles as a speedy, glove-first backup outfielder, maybe more if the leather grades out in plus territory. If he can hit .260 and get on base at a .340 clip he becomes a borderline All-Star performer thanks to his speed. The floor of a Myles Straw-type.”

After watching some pro game tape, Bradfield could be the gold standard when it comes to MLB centerfield defense for a decade. He’s that good. If he comes close to even the league average offensive production, he’s going to make a lot of money as one of the game’s premium outfielders.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2025/2026

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6. Dylan Beavers, OF

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554550505050

Background: Right up there with Death and Taxes, the Orioles grabbing a polished collegiate bat – or a few polished collegiate bats – in the opening round of the draft is practically immutable at this point. So it’s not surprising that Baltimore followed up the Jackson Holliday selection with three consecutive collegiate sticks: Dylan Beavers, Max Wagner, and Jud Fabian, all of whom now rank among the club’s better minor leaguers. Taken with the 33rd overall pick that summer, Beavers looked incredibly comfortable during his abbreviated 23-game debut in the Complex League, Low-A, and High-A, batting .322/.438/.460. Last season, the 6-foot-4, 206-pound outfield vagabond split time with Aberdeen and Bowie, slugging a combined .288/.383/.467 with 35 doubles, six triples, 11 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 37 total attempts). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 32% above the league average threshold.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Very simple, low maintenance swing that belies the 55-grade thump he’s packing. League average starter potential, maybe a tick more.   

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with a club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, a double-digit BB-rate, and a 22% to 24% K-rate. Those three: Derek Fisher, Darrien Miller, and Dylan Beavers.

Beavers hit a few important checkboxes for the Orioles: he was a polished collegiate bat and he was young for the class. Short, compact swing that allows him to stay inside the baseball well. He has a little bit of Darryl Strawberry swing to him, though I don’t think he comes close to matching that type of in-game pop. The ceiling isn’t extraordinary because he’s lacking elite tools, but the floor is quite high. I think he ultimately becomes a hit over power guy that can handle all three spots in the outfield.  

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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7. Connor Norby, 2B/LF

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505050505050

Background: After the front office (surprisingly) nabbed Sam Houston State University star Colton Cowser with the fifth overall pick in 2021, the Orioles honed in on another non-traditional baseball school for their second selection, picking East Carolina University infielder Connor Norby. The 41st overall pick that summer, Norby left the American Athletic Conference school sporting a spectacular .392/.458/.596 slash line in 105 total games. And, for the most part, he’s transitioned to wood bats reasonably well. During his 26-game debut stint with Delmarva, the 5-foot-9, 180-pound second baseman hit .283/.413/.434 in 126 games. The following season, 2022, Norby’s production took a bit of a downturn during his 49-game cameo in High-A (.237/.311/.425) but rebounded well in Double-A (.298/.389/.571), and he spent a handful of games mashing in the International League, as well. Overall, the former Pirate put together an aggregate .279/.360/.536 production line. Norby spent the entirety of last season squaring off against the Triple-A competition, winning most of the time. He slugged .290/.359/.483 with a career best 40 doubles, three triples, 21 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (in 14 total attempts).

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He might be a candidate to bounce between the hot corner and left field.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 20.5% to 22.5% K- rate, and an 8% to 10% BB-rate. Those two bats: Tim Beckham and Connor Norby.

Another one of these hitters that (A) has exceeded expectations and (B) has a high floor / low ceiling. Norby’s a well-rounded hitter without a true standout offensive skill: average bat, power, and speed. And the Statcast data from Triple-A backs it up. Solid in-zone whiff rate (15%), average hard hit rate (35%), and solid top end exit velocity (109.9 mph). He does expand the zone a bit (33%), but it’s not overly concerning. Defensively, Norby was an absolute black hole at the keystone for his first two years as a pro, but he showed some serious progress in picking it – which is great because hit overall skillset is far better suited on the infield than in a run producing position like leftfield. He’s Brock Holt with a little bit more thump in the tank. Big league production: .280/.345/.410.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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8. Colton Cowser, OF

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4545505545/5050

Background: College bats and the Baltimore Orioles go hand-in-hand at point, almost predictably so. So it’s never shocking to see Mike Elias & Co. take a polished, four-year school hitter in the opening round. What was surprising, though, is when the organization grabbed Sam Houston State University star Colton Cowser with the fifth overall pick in the loaded 2021 draft. To the franchise’s credit, Cowser has done nothing but mash since donning an organizational uniform. The former Bearkat slugged .375/.490/.492 during his 32-game debut in the low levels. The following year, 2022, Cowser blitzed through High-A and Double-A before settling in for a month of work in the International League; he would finish the year with an aggregate .278/.406/.469 slash line. Last season, Cowser returned to Norfolk for some additional seasoning. He promptly responded with a Cowser-like .300/.417/.520 production line, belting out 18 doubles, a triple, and 17 homeruns in only 87 games. He appeared in 26 games with the O’s as well, batting a putrid .115/.286/.148 with just a pair of doubles spanning 77 trips to the plate.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The sweet-swinging former early first round selection struggled mightily with contact issues throughout the duration of 2022, posting K-rate north of 25% in each of his three stops. Compounding the questions about his hit tool are the dramatic – and concerning – platoon splits that the lefty-swinging Cowser displayed.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hitters posted a 130 to 140 wRC+ mark with a strikeout rate north of 25% with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Brett Phillips and Colton Cowser.

I’ve always had concerns about Cowser’s hit tool. The rest of the package is rock solid, 15 or so homeruns, a handful of stolen bases, and plenty of patience at the plate. He’s only faking it in centerfield and should slide into a corner spot eventually. But, hey, it’s a workable collection of skills, something I call the Tyler Naquin package. Last year, Cowser seemingly figured out southpaws last season, which helps the overall value.  Big league line: .265/.320/.420 with 20 doubles, 15 homeruns, and eight or so stolen bases.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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9. Max Wagner, 2B/3B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
40/4550/5550/405045/5045

Background: Wagner hit a couple Baltimore-centric checkboxes heading into the draft two years ago. #1: he’s a college bat; #2: he was an explosive, power-packaged college bat; #3: he was a young college bat. After mashing .370/.496/.852 with 15 doubles, one triple, and 27 homeruns with the Clemson Tigers in 2022, the Orioles snagged Wagner, just 20-years-old at the time, in the second round, 42nd overall. He looked moderately solid during his abbreviated debut that summer as well, batting .243/.353/.386 in 19 low level games. Last season, the 6-foot, 215-pound second / third baseman split time between Aberdeen and Bowie, hitting a disappointing .239/.342/.405 with 21 doubles, four triples, 13 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 33 total attempts). His overall production line, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 7%.

Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Wagner could be a serviceable big league third baseman.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 107 to 117 wRC+, a 24% to 26% strikeout percentage, and a walk rate north of 12%. Those two bats: White Sox farmhand Loidel Chapelli and – of course – Max Wagner.

Wagner seemed to operate on a rollercoaster last season, struggling in April (.154/.260/.246), June (.214/.345/.357), and August (.202/.265/.351), and hitting well in May (.265/.446/.530), July (.328/.373/.475), and September (.324/.359/.514). The hit tool wasn’t nearly as solid as expected, though he had his moments. The power and added defensive versatility (he moonlighted at the keystone) help buoy his overall value. Wagner’s the type of guy that just looks like a ballplayer wearing a uniform. Plus raw power with a questionable bat. Defensively, he was a bit raw, but has typically looked solid in the past.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2025

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10. Mac Horvath, 2B/3B/LF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
40/456060505045

Background: Just the latest top prospect to come out of baseball super-hotbed IMG Academy. Horvath, a 6-foot-1, 200-pound part-time infielder / outfielder was ranked by Perfect Game as the 11th best shortstop in the country and almost assuredly tabbed as an early- to mid-round selection after his senior year had COVID not interrupted it. So it’s not surprising that Horvath struggled during his freshman season with the Tar Heels, considering the significant loss of development time as an 18-year-old. The Minnesota-born infielder batted a paltry .227/.311/.387 with four doubles and five homeruns. Horvath’s bat found a steady heartbeat during his summer stint in the Northwoods League in 2021 as he hit a respectably solid .287/.437/.434. He was able to add to that momentum during his sophomore season in the ACC, slugging .268/.390/.557 with 15 doubles, one triple, 18 homeruns, and – a surprising – 19 stolen bases (in only 22 attempts). The Tar Heel bopper spent that summer in the Cape Cod League, posting an OBP-deficient .250/.299/.514 with 20 punch outs in only 77 plate appearances. Last season Horvath continued to show impressive growth at the dish as he mashed .305/.418/.711 with 21 doubles, two triples, 24 homeruns, and 25 stolen bases (in 29 attempts). Baltimore drafted him in the second round, 53rd overall, and signed him to a slightly below-slot deal worth $1.4 million, saving the club roughly $180,000. He batted .321/.455/.603 with seven doubles and five homeruns in 22 games during his debut.    

Scouting Report: Consider the following: 

Since 2011, only four ACC players batted at least .300/.400/.700 in a season (min. 250 PA): Kevin Parada, Drew Ellis, Jake Gelof, and – of course – Mac Horvath. Ellis, Gelof, and Horvath were all second round picks; Parada was nabbed with the 11th overall selection.

It’s completely unsurprising that an organization that places a strong emphasis on collegiate bats, particularly early in the draft, snagged one of college baseball’s better power hitters. Horvath breaks the typical mold of a hard-swinging, power-hitting bat in one way: he chokes up on every pitch. There’s a bit of swing-and-miss to his game – largely due to his swing getting long at times – but the thump helps compensate for a below-average hit tool. Horvath was primarily a third baseman early in his career, but his plus speed helped ease his transition to the outfield. The Dodgers have long bet on tools, guys like D.J. Peters, so it’ll be interesting to see if Baltimore can achieve where Los Angeles didn’t.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2026

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)

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