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1. Cristian Pache, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 45/55 | 50 | 45+ | 60 | 70 |
Background: Slowly reaching a boiling point. The Dominican-born outfielder’s production – and underlying skill set – havecontinued to improve in each of his four professional season. A highly touted amateur free agent on the international scene, Pache, who was signed by the club in 2015 for $1.4 million, was pushed straight into the stateside rookie leagues the following season for his debut. Splitting time between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues, the wiry center fielder slashed .309/.349/.391 with four doubles and seven triples in 57 total games. The front office brass pushed the Santo Domingo Centro native up to the Sally at the beginning of 2017. And – at the ripe ol’ age of 18 – Pache posted a .281/.335/.343 line with 13 doubles, eight triples, and 32 stolen bases. He split the next season between the Florida State and Southern Leagues, batting an aggregate .279/.307/.410 with 23 doubles, six triples, and a then-career best nine homeruns. He spent the ensuing fall with the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .279/.323/.360 in 20 games. Atlanta sent the young outfielder, who’s put on considerable bulk over the past couple of seasons, back to Class AA for additional seasoning. And he passed the minors’ toughest challenge with aplomb. In 104 games with the Mississippi Braves, Pache slugged .278/.340/.474 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 11 homeruns, and eight stolen bases. He spent an additional 26 games with Gwinnett in the International League, slashing .274/.337/.411.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: The power’s likely to continue to blossom as his lean frame approaches maturity as well. The Dominican native, despite reaching Class AA before his age-20 season, hasn’t quite put everything together successfully – yet. Instead, there are glimpses of the full package sprinkled throughout his career. At various points his eye at the plate is solid, the speed on the base paths exceptional, and – of course – the power too. But once he does put it all together – watch out.
Scouting Report: Let’s take a look at his numbers and production in Class AA, the make-it-or-break-it level for a prospect, last season. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 135 and 145 in the Southern League (min. 300 PA): Jake Bauers, the young outfielder who struggled a bit for the Indians in 2019, Drew Waters, and – of course – Cristian Pache.
A plus glove with the offensive tools to settle in atop – or in the middle – of championship big league team. But the most exciting aspect for Pache’s development: his blossoming power. A speed-based, slashing hitter for the majority of his career, Pache underwent an interesting transformation in 2019 – he stopped putting the ball on the ground. After posting a groundball rate of at least 48% and as high as 64.5 in his previous seasons, Pache posted a 39.4% groundball rate last year. So it’s not surprising that he posted a career best .462 slugging percentage and 12 homeruns. There’s 20- to 25-homer potential thanks his lightning bat and new approach. In terms of ceiling, think Yoan Moncada’s numbers from 2019: he slugged .315/.367/.548 with 25 homeruns and 10 stolen bases.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2020
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2. Drew Waters, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 45/50 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
Background: After selecting Vanderbilt University ace Kyle Wright – and handing over a massive bonus – with the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft, the front office dipped into the prep ranks and drafted toolsy outfielder Drew Waters 36 selections later. A product of Etowah High School, which has produce three other minor leaguers, Waters put together one of the better debut showings for a teenage hitter that summer: he slugged .278/.362/.429 between both stateside rookie leagues. He split time between Rome and Florida the following season and his production showed no signs of slowing as he slugged a hearty .293/.343/.476 with 39 doubles, nine triples, and nine homeruns. Despite only appearing in 30 games in High Class A, the front office aggressively pushed the 20-year-old outfielder up to Class AA, the most important development step for a prospect, at the start of 2019. And he didn’t blink. In 108 games with Mississippi, the 6-foot-2, 183-pound switch-hitter bashed .319/.366/.481 with 35 doubles, nine triples, and five homeruns. He spent the remaining 26 games with Gwinnett in the International League.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: A toolsy switch-hitter that’s flirted with some concerning strikeout rates at various points in his young career. Waters is likely to grow into above-average power to go along with his plus speed. Even if the hit tool remains average – which it likely will – Waters has a shot to be a nice little league average center fielder in the coming years.
Scouting Report: Eerily similar production and peripherals to his teammate, Cristian Pache, consider the following:
| NAME | YEAR | LVL | AGE | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | DRC+ |
| Cristian Pache | 2019 | AA | 20 | 433 | 0.278 | 0.340 | 0.474 | 7.85% | 24.02% | 139 |
| Drew Waters | 2019 | AA | 20 | 454 | 0.319 | 0.366 | 0.481 | 6.17% | 26.65% | 143 |
Waters doesn’t possess his counterpart’s defensive prowess, though he’s far from a slouch either. Offensively speaking, Waters is still showing some borderline concerning swing-and-miss numbers; he whiffed in nearly 27% of his Class AA plate appearances and that number ballooned by nearly 10-percentage points during his 26-game cameo in the International League. Below-average patience. Plus-speed. And there’s some solid raw power, though he’s still putting the ball on the ground too frequently. He looks like .280/.320/.420 type hitter.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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3. Bryse Wilson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: It’s easy to stock a farm system with a bevy of early first round picks. But the Braves also haven’t had an issue unearthing plenty of intriguing talent beyond the opening round. Enter: Bryse Wilson, the 109th player chosen in the 2016 draft. A product of Orange High School in Hillsborough, North Carolina, the burly, powerfully built right-hander has moved through the minor leagues with the efficiency of a shark through water. The 6-foot-1, 225-pound hurler was nearly unhittable during his debut in the Gulf Coast League; he followed that up with a dominating showing in the South Atlantic League. And then, once the front office took the training wheels off, Wilson shot through four separate levels in 2018, going from Low Class A all the way to a three-game cameo with the Braves. Last season the North Carolinian spent the majority of the time yo-yoing between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He made 21 starts with the club’s International League affiliate, throwing 121.0 innings with 118 strikeouts and just 26 walks. He tossed another 20.0 innings, fanning 16 and walking just 10.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Wilson’s fastball is a like a punch to the jaw from a heavyweight champion boxer.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a sub-6.0% walk percentage in the either Class AAA league (min. 100 IP): Bryse Wilson.
Wilson commands the strike zone – with all four pitches – like a savvy, soft-tossing veteran; not a haymaker-throwing, power-based right-hander. With the physical build of Roger Clemens, Wilson has makings of an underrated #2-type arm. And the former fourth rounder has – quietly – become the best pitching prospect in a system rich on pitching prospects. There’s some Jose Berrios-type level of potential here. Plus fastball, plus-slider, above-average changeup, and a decent get-me-over curveball.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018
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4. Ian Anderson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55+ | 60 | 50/55 | 55 | 45+ | 55 |
Background: When the Braves made Anderson the third overall pick in 2016 it was earliest selection for the storied franchise since 1991 when they chose Arizona State University outfielder second overall. And Anderson tied former All-Star left-hander Steve Avery for the highest drafted pitcher in franchise history. A 6-foot-3, 170-pound right-hander out of Shenendehowa High School, immediate started making waves in the Braves’ farm system: he posted a dominating 36-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39.2 innings of work. He spent the following season, 2017, dominating the challenging South Atlantic League and split the 2018 campaign between High Class A and Class AA. The then-22-year-old righty opened up last year back in Mississippi, making 21 starts with the club’s Southern League affiliate, throwing 111.0 innings with 147 strikeouts and 47 walks to go along with a 2.68 ERA. He made five additional starts with Gwinnett in Class AAA, though they were mostly disastrous. Overall, he averaged 11.4 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Anderson has clean, repeatable mechanics so his control/command should continue its upward trend. At his peak he looks like another #2/#3-type arm.
Scouting Report: The numbers remain impressive, certainly, but his velocity – particularly down the stretch – is a bit troubling. Two years ago Anderson’s heater was kissing the mid-90s with some regularity. Across several starts that I saw last season, though, Anderson’s fastball was sitting 91- to 92-mph and touching 93. His curveball still looks like a hammer and his changeup adds another 55-grade weapon to his arsenal. And it looks like he added a slider to his repertoire late in the season. With respect to his work in Class AA, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers have fanned at least 30% of the hitters they faced in the Southern League (min. 100 IP): Michael Kopech, Gio Gonzalez, and Ian Anderson.
Gonzalez, who was a 3.5-win player for the majority of his career, seems like a reasonable comparison.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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5. Kyle Wright, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: One of the more highly touted collegiate arms in recent memory. Wright, a well-built 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander, was consistently dominant during his three-year tenure at Vanderbilt University – a.k.a. Pitcher U. After making him the fifth overall pick in 2017 draft, Atlanta signed the hard-throwing righty for a hefty $7 million bonus. And as expected, Wright moved quickly through the minor leagues – perhaps even faster than many people were prognosticating. He rocketed through Class AA and Class AAA during his first full season in the minor leagues and he even capped it off with a four-game cameo with Atlanta at the end of the year. The former Commodore opened up last season in The Show, but after a trio of starts – two of which were disastrous – he was demoted back down to the International League. In total, Wright tossed 112.1 innings with Gwinnett, posting a 116-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he tossed another 19.2 innings with the Braves, fanning 18 and walking 13.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: A little more than a year after being drafted Wright was toeing a rubber for the Braves and looks to be a big part of the club’s plans in 2019. Wright shows a standard four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and a changeup. Wright’s heater, a plus-offering, sits in the 93- to 95-mph range with the ability to reach back for a little more when needed. His curveball trails only teammate Touki Toussaint’s as tops in the organization and he’s not afraid to bounce it to get hitters to chase. His slider, a mid-80s weapon, adds a third above-average pitch. The changeup settles in comfortably as the fourth option.
Scouting Report: Wright’s added a couple ticks of consistent velocity onto his fastball. As I remarked in last year’s Handbook, his fastball was sitting in the 93- to 95-mph range. Across a couple minor league starts last season Wright’s heater was sitting a blistering 97-mph and touching 98-mph on occasion. He featured his changeup more frequently too, which also showed some developmental growth as well. The former collegiate ace’s breaking balls are nasty, plus offerings. The break on his slider will vary from a hard cutter to a more traditional slider. With respect to his work in Class AAA, consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old arms to post a strikeout percentage between 23.5% and 25.5% with a walk percentage between 6.5% and 8.5% in the International League (min. 100 IP): Jake Odorizzi, Mike Minor, Garrett Olson, and – of course – Kyle Wright.
Wright’s repertoire and pedigree all suggest #1/#2-type status. But I don’t think he ascends to that level. I think a Jake Odorizzi ceiling is more than reasonable. The cause: the fastball looks more hittable than the velocity would suggest. For example: during his May 3rd start against the Durham Bulls, hitters – without much hope for establishing themselves as big leaguers – looked awfully comfortable against what should be a plus to plus-plus fastball.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018
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6. William Contreras, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 30 | 45+ | 50 | 50 |
Background: After a bit of a slow-and-steady in the early years of Contreras’ career, the front office began easing the reins two years ago as the Venezuelan-born backstop split time between the South Atlantic and Florida State Leagues. And last season Contreras – once again – spent time between two separate levels. The 6-foot, 180-pound catcher opened the year back up the Florida Fire Frogs, hitting a solid .263/.324/.368 with 11 doubles and three homeruns in 50 games. Contreras was promoted up to the Southern League in early June; he hit .246/.306/.340 with nine doubles and three homers in 60 games with the club’s Class AA affiliate.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: The biggest develop for the lean catcher was the surge in pop last season and that’s only the beginning. At full maturity Contreras’ power has the potential to blossom into a perennial 20-homer threat at the big league level. Throw in an above-average hit tool, a good glove behind the dish, and his willingness to take balls the other way; and there’s a lot to like about the young Venezuelan.
Scouting Report: A few things to note:
- Contreras sandwiched three miserable offensive months with two scorching ones; he hit .329/.394 in April and .290/.329/.420 in August, but managed to cobble together a putrid .212/.279/.297 triple-slash line in May, June, and July.
- The uptick in power Contreras showed in 2018 regressed to his previous subpar showing.
- Even though the numbers weren’t all that impressive during his Class AA debut, Contreras, the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson, was (A) a league average bat, (B) in the most important level, (C) at a premium position, and (D) at just 21-years-old.
Strong bat-to-ball skills with a decent eye at the plate and a solid glove behind the dish. Contreras is a league average – or better – starting catcher in the making.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020/2021
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7. Braden Shewmake, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Starred on the diamond and the gridiron during his four-year career at Wylie East High School; Shewmake quarterbacked his way into earning All-District 10-5A First Team honors as well as hitting .495 for the baseball team during his senior season. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound infielder turned quite a few heads after his dominant freshman season at Texas A&M in 2017. In 64 games for the SEC powerhouse, Shewmake slugged .328/.374/.529 with 18 doubles, two triples, and 11 homeruns to go along with 11 stolen bases. Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball, and NCBWA tabbed him as a First Team All-American. And he earned second team honors from ACBA and D1Baseball. The Texas native was also named as an ALL-SEC First Team and Freshman All-SEC. He spent the ensuing summer playing the USA National Collegiate Team, hitting a lowly .209/.327/.308 in 15 games. Shewmake’s numbers – particularly in the power department – took a little bit of step backward during his follow up campaign two years ago: in 60 games for Head Coach Rob Childress, the lefty-swinging middle infield batted .325/.395/.450 with just 16 extra-base hits (seven doubles, four triples, and five homeruns). He also – briefly – popped up on Team USA’s roster for the second time as well. Last season Shewmake’s numbers maintained status quo: .313/.374/.474 with 24 extra-base hits (14 doubles, four triples, and six homeruns) to go along with 13 stolen bases in 16 attempts. Atlanta used their second first round pick on the Aggies shortstop, 21st overall, last June. Shewmake acquitted himself nicely in the South Atlantic League, slugging .318/.389/.473 with 18 doubles, two triples, and three homeruns. He also spent a couple weeks in the Southern League too.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the lefty-swinging shortstop heading into last June’s draft:
“Three years ago Shewmake looked like a burgeoning star, offering up above-average in-game power, speed, a strong hit tool, and incredible bat-to-ball skills. In fact, consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2018 there were only four instances in which a SEC hitter batted at least .320/.360/.500 with a sub-12% walk rate and a single digit strikeout rate (min. 275 PA): Alex Bregman, Alex Yarbrough, Michael Helman, and Braden Shewmake. Bregman, of course, is a bonafide star for the Astros. Alex Yarbrough, who accomplished the feat as a junior, was a fourth round pick by the Angels in 2012. And Helman, also a junior, was taken in the 11th round.
Again, the only two players to meet the criteria during their respective freshman seasons were Bregman and Shewmake. The Texas A&M star’s production, though, has stagnated the past two years, going from dominant to merely solid. His power has dried up. And while the incredible bat-to-ball skills remain intact, his lack of patience at the plate significantly cuts into his overall offensive value. Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2018, only five SEC hitters have met the following criteria (min. 200 PA): hit at least .300/.350/.450 with a walk rate between 8% and 11% and a strikeout rate between 6% and 8%. Those five hitters: Alex Yarbrough, Kade Scivicque, Jake Magnum, Auston Bousfield, and Daniel Pigott.
- Again, Yarnrough was a fourth round pick. Scivicque, too, was taken in the fourth round. Mangum was drafted in the 32nd round by the Twins last season. And Pigott was selected in the ninth round by the Reds in 2012.
Obviously, that’s a less-than-stellar group of comparisons. There was a time in the not-so-distant past that Shewmake looked like a lock as a first rounder. But now, he’s likely going to hear his name between the late second or early third rounds. Teams may be hoping to unlock his previous thump.”
Shewmake’s stellar debut – particularly in the Sally – like suggests that I may have shot a little too low on the young shortstop. I’d bump his ceiling up for a low-end starting caliber shortstop to a potentially league average one. Solid hit tool and power with a smattering of speed.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021
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8. Kyle Muller, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 45/55 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: Atlanta opened up the 2016 draft by taking three consecutive prep arms: Ian Anderson with the 3rd overall pick; Joey Wentz, who was selected 37 picks later; and – of course – Kyle Muller, a behemoth southpaw out of Dallas Jesuit College Prep. Muller squared off against the Southern League competition last June, showing an impressive ability to miss bats and the strike zone. The large left-hander struck out 120 and walked 68 in only 111.2 innings of work. That’s an average of 9.7 strikeouts and a whopping 5.5 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.85 DRA (Deserved Run Average).
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Muller looks like a backend starter, though if the curveball doesn’t lurch forward he could be a fastball/changeup guy out of the pen.
Scouting Report: One of my favorite accounts to follow on Twitter because, well, I follow anyone associated with Driveline Baseball. Muller famously touched 107.3 mph on a pull down, a max effort throw with a running start, last offseason. The reason why I bring up Muller’s Twitter account: he’s been working diligently on an improved changeup. Ignoring his inability to consistently find the strike zone last season, Muller’s below-average changeup was a massive issue. It was too firm, too…terrible. But he’s been twitting out videos of a vastly improved one, showing significant fade and dive. I think there’s an outside chance for three plus-pitches. Now the control issues: there was a dramatic step back up from his control/command – particularly involving his fastball. He never showed a solid feel for zone, but there’s no reason to think the control/command won’t bounce back up to a 45-grade. There’s some league average starting caliber potential, especially if the changeup is as good as it’s looked in practice (assuming the control/command comes back).
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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9. Tucker Davidson, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Surprisingly, the hefty lefty out of Midland College isn’t the only success story to happen in the 19th round of the 2016 draft. Harvard right-hander Scott Pippen, who was taken drafted by the Minnesota Twins, earned a four-game cup of coffee with the big league club in 2019. Davidson, however, is clearly on his heels. The 559th overall pick that year, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound thick-bodied left-hander spent the majority of his fourth professional season squaring off – and often dominating – the minors’ most important challenge, Class AA. In 21 starts with the Mississippi Braves, Davidson fanned 122 and walked 45 in 110.2 innings of work. He tallied a barely-there 2.03 ERA and a 4.43 DRA (Deserved Run Average). The Texas-born southpaw made four final starts with Gwinnett in Class AAA as well, tossing 19.0 innings with 12 punch outs and nine free passes.
Scouting Report: So I have to admit something that I wasn’t aware of: as I was doing my background research on Davidson, a Reddit thread popped up that (A) showed he was a Driveline guy (which I love) and (B) he was posting some absurd metrics like: he set the MoCap (Motion Capture) record of 100.2 mph and bested Rays ace – and famed flame-thrower Tyler Glasnow – in several plyoball records. This is fascinating because in a late-season start against the Durham Bulls, his fastball was sitting firmly in average territory (91- to 92-mph). His curveball is slow and loopy, a 50-grade. And he’ll mix in a decent changeup. However, a month earlier, on July 24th, Davidson’s fastball was touching 96 mph and his curveball was flashing plus. Assuming the fastball isn’t the one I saw at the end of the year, Davidson has the ceiling as a #4-type arm with the floor of a as a hard-throwing lefty reliever. The command need some work.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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10. Huascar Ynoa, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Signed by the Twins off the international market during the summer of 2014. Minnesota shipped the hard-throwing right-hander down south for veteran southpaw Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker, and cash near the trade deadline three years ago. (On a side note: three days after acquiring Garcia, the Twinkies dealt him to the Yankees for Dietrich Enns and Zack Littell.) Ynoa rocketed through four separate levels last season, going from Low Class A all the way up to the big leagues, where he earned a brief two-game cameo. In total, Ynoa tossed 97.1 minor leagues innings, fanning 110 and walking 45 to go along with an aggregate 5.09 ERA. He tossed another three innings with the Twins, coughing up six earned runs while fanning three and walking one.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: I’m a big, big believer of Ynoa’s potential as a starting pitcher. The two knocks on the Dominican-born hurler are: #1 he’s a max effort guy, which may persuade the Braves to push him into a bullpen role and #2 his control. Ynoa’s ability to throw strikes took some baby steps forward last season, so the trend needs to continue. But he’s going to be a light’s out arm at the big league level – regardless of whether he’s in the rotation or bullpen.
Scouting Report: The front office seemed like it had no idea on how to handle the hard-throwing hurler last season. He began the year in the rotation, was promptly pushed into a multi-inning reliever upon his promotion up to Class AA, and then made starts in Class AAA. He was then bounced back to the bullpen, then back to the rotation. Ynoa’s fastball was sitting 94- to 95-mph during stint as a starter and sitting 97- to 98-mph as a reliever. Above-average slider. One of the more underrated changeups in the minor leagues. The Braves have a bevy of starting pitching options so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him wind up as a full-time reliever. There’s some league average starting caliber potential, though.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
