Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Corbin Carroll, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 40/45 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: In the classic baseball movie The Natural, Roy Hobbs, with a twinge of blood seeping through the front of his jersey, connects for one of the most memorable (fictional) homeruns in history, smashing the lights well above the upper deck. And in a moment of pure Hollywood, the baseball wunderkind circles the bases with sparks raining down in the background. Taking a page out Hobbs’ playbook, Carroll had his own “Roy Hobbs” moment. In the second game of a double header against The Eugene Emeralds in High-A West, Carroll connected for a tape measure dinger on a ferocious swing that subsequently shredded his right shoulder last season. The result: tears in his labrum and his posterior capsule, serious injuries that required surgery several days later and consequently knocked him out for the remainder of the season. The 16th overall pick in 2019, the pint-sized mighty mite – and consensus Top 100 pick – was off to a potentially historic start the 2021 season, slugging .435/.552/.913 with a double, two triples, two homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases. For his young career, the 5-foot-10, 165-pound center fielder is sporting a .316/.428/.542 triple-slash line in just 49 games.
Scouting Report: For the most part, Carroll’s been a consensus Top 100 prospect since signing his first professional contract. He’s on the smaller side and physically maxed out, but he’s a gamer, a ballplayer that does everything right and maximizes his ability to the Nth-degree. Plus speed that shows up out of the batter’s box, on the base paths, and in center fielder. Carroll is still oozing loud five and figures to be a franchise cornerstone for the next 10 to 12 years – assuming the shoulder issue doesn’t hamper that pretty swing in any way. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .300/.390/.440.
Ceiling: 5.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Alek Thomas, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: There aren’t too many teams – or any at all – that can boast the sheer talent level sprinkled throughout the Arizona’s farm system. The DBacks snagged Alek Thomas in the second round of the 2018 draft, signing him to a deal worth $1.2 million. The son of Chicago White Sox Director of Training, Thomas has exceeded all lofty expectations that come with a high round, big bonus draft status. He split time between rookie ball and the Pioneer League during his professional debut, batting a scorching .333/.395/.463 in 56 total games. And he promptly followed that up with a .300/.379/.450 triple-slash line between Kane County and Visalia in 2019. Last season Thomas – once again – split time between two levels and looked big league-ready in the process. In 106 games with Amarillo and Reno, the rock solid 5-foot-11, 175-pound outfielder hit .313/.394/.559 with 29 doubles, a whopping 12 triples, and a career-best 18 homeruns. He also swiped 13 bags in 24 total attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league mark by a staggering 46%, as a 22-year-old, in the final two levels of the minor leagues.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Thomas offers up an incredibly well-rounded approach at the plate, showing an above-average hit tool, power that should grow into a perennial 20-homer threat, and above-average speed. Thomas does show a slight platoon split, but it barely registers a blip on his future ceiling.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there were only three 21-year-old hitters that met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+ total, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 18% and 22%. Those three hitters: Matt Davidson, Arismendy Alcantara, and – of course – Alek Thomas.
Unlike Davidson and Alcantara, Thomas owns (A) a considerably larger track record in the minors and (B) his levels of production have been more significant as well. Consistently barreling balls mixed with solid speed, and strong contact rates. Thomas is a little miscast as a center field, but the bat will have no problem sliding over to either corner. He doesn’t own the ceiling level of Corbin Carroll, but figures to provide the Robin to his counterpart’s Batman. Ceiling: .290/.340/.450.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Jordan Lawlar, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: In the short – short – conversation for not only the best prep player in the 2021 draft class, Lawlar’s name was bandied about as a potential number one overall pick. A well-built, 6-foot-2, 183-pound shortstop from Irving, Texas, Lawlar burst onto the baseball scene as a sophomore for the Rangers in 2019, slugging a healthy .409/.534/.864 with nine doubles, a trio of triples, and five homeruns in 24 starts. In a COVID-shortened junior campaign, the burgeoning star slugged .485/.561/.848 with five doubles, two triples, and a homerun in only 12 games of action. Lawlar starred in the Perfect Game All-American Classic the ensuing summer as he was named the Jackie Robinson Perfect Game Player of the Year. The Vanderbilt University commit continued to shine – brightly – during his senior campaign for the Texas private school as he batted .425/.552/.713 with five doubles, three triples, and four homeruns while sporting a tidy 19-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Arizona happily snagged the prep star with the sixth overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $6,713,300. Lawlar made six trips to the plate during his debut, going 2-for-5 with a double and a walk.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the teenage star prior to the draft last July:
“The hits came in bunches after a slow start in 2021. Lawlar, who went hitless in six of his first 12 games, put up five such contests of his remaining 24 games. Short, compact, quick swing with 20-homer potential as his body fills out. Lawlar seems to have a propensity to chase high fastballs. Patient approach; not afraid to take several pitches. He shows a willingness to take the ball the other way. Plus speed, as evidenced by his 6.45, 60-yard time. He’s not as fluid as shortstop as his counterpart Marcelo Mayer, but should be no worse than solid average.”
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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4. Geraldo Perdomo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 40/50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: A native of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Perdomo looked to be on the precipice of a breakout season. The baby faced shortstop was coming off of back-to-back strong offensive showings against significantly older competition. He hit an aggregate .322/.438/.460 as an 18-year-old against the Arizona Summer, Pioneer, and Northwest Leagues. A year later, in 2019, Perdomo split time between Low-A and High-A, batting a solid .275/.397/.364 with 21 doubles, three triples, and three homeruns. Last season, though, the front office continued their aggressively development plan by listing him on the club’s Opening Day roster. That lasted all of four games before he was bounced back down to AA – where he continued to struggle. He would eventually get his feet under him over the last couple months of the year and earn a promotion up to Triple-A. Overall, Perdomo hit an aggregate .238/.357/.359 with just eight doubles, five triples, six homeruns, and eight stolen bases in 14 total attempts.
Scouting Report: Maybe it was the learning curve? Maybe he was dealing with a hangover effect from the big league demotion? Whatever it was, though, Perdomo looked dreadful at the dish for the first couple months of the minor league season. In fact, he hit a lowly .144/.292/.194 over his first 49 contests with Amarillo, which included missing several weeks of action. But over his next 36 MiLB contests he slugged a scorching .348/.435/.551 with 14 extra-base hits. Tremendous patience at the plate. Solid-average power that should peak in the 15-homer range. Good speed, though he wasn’t running nearly as frequently last season. Fantastic glove. He’s going to be Nick Ahmed’s heir apparent.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020
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5. Kristian Robinson, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 55/60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: A consensus Top 100 prospect by every meaningful outlet for the last couple of years. Robinson’s production seemed to reaching a crescendo of sorts during his first two seasons in professional baseball. The athletic 6-foot-3, 190-pound outfielder slugged .279/.363/.428 in 57 games between rookie ball and Missoula during his debut in 2018. He followed that up with middle-of-the-lineup thump production: he batted .282/.368/.514 with 13 doubles, two triples, 14 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases in only 69 games between Hillsboro and Kane County the next season. And with all arrows pointing skyward Robinson’s career was derailed – hopefully, just temporary. During the COVID shutdown, Robinson had an altercation with a police officer in April during, what he termed, a “mental breakdown.” The top prospect was sentenced to 18 months probation for punching the officer, a move that’s only complicated do to his visa issues as a citizen of the Bahamas.
Scouting Report: Since Robinson missed the entirety of the 2021 season, there’s nothing new to report on beyond the legal issues. He has as much potential as any prospect in baseball. But from a personal standpoint, hopefully he’s able to get the help he needs.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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6. Drey Jameson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: One of college baseball’s elite strikeout artists during his final two seasons as an amateur. Jameson fanned a total 243 hitters in just 163.2 innings of work, or an average of 13.4 punch outs per nine innings. Arizona made the hard-throwing, though diminutive, right-hander the seventh highest drafted player in Ball State history when they selected him with the 34th overall selection three years ago. Like many of the club’s other top young hurlers, Jameson split time between two different levels in 2021. The former first rounder made 13 appearances, 12 of which were starts, with the Hillsboro Hops and another eight starts with the Amarillo Sod Poodles. Across those career-high 21 appearances, the 6-foot, 165-pound flame-throwing righty averaged 11.8 strikeouts and just 2.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.98 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 23-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 45 IP): a strikeout percentage of at least 34% with a walk percentage between 8.5% and 10.5%. Those four hurlers: Matt Brash, Enoli Paredes, Paul Estrada, and Drey Jameson.
He’s lean and powerful like Walker Buehler, though there’s a small difference in height. Jameson generates some of the best velocity from a starting pitcher in the entire minor leagues. He was sitting 95- to 98-mph and bumping 99-mph in an early season start I scouted. His breaking balls showed noticeable progress, both now ranking as above-average offerings. And his changeup adds a third offspeed weapon. Arizona’s honed in on lean, hard-throwing collegiate hurlers in the draft the past couple of seasons (see: Bryce Jarvis, Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson), but Jameson has the best odds to succeed in a big league rotation.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Blake Walston, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55/60 | 55/60 | 50 | 50 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: Fun Fact: North Carolina-based New Hanover High School has produced two first round pick in their history – Trot Nixon, the seventh overall selection all the way back in 1993 and, of course, Blake Walston, the 26th overall player chosen three years ago. After receiving a hefty $2.45 million bonus, Walston split his debut between rookie ball and Hillsboro, back when it was the club’s Northwest League affiliate. Last season, following the return of minor league action, Walston opened the year up with the Visalia Rawhide in the Low-A West League. That stint lasted all of just eight starts before earning a promotion up to High-A for another 11 games. In total, the lanky 6-foot-5, 175-pound southpaw tossed 95.2 innings with 117 strikeouts and just 33 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.76 ERA and a noticeably worse 4.89 FIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been ten 20-year-old pitchers to meet the following criteria in a High-A season with one organization (min. 50 IP): a strikeout percentage between 24% and 26% with a walk percentage between 6% and 8%. Those ten hurlers: Danny Duffy, Patrick Corbin, Noah Syndergaard, Sean Gallagher, Randall Delgado, Hector Rondon, Adalberto Mejia, Clayton Blackburn, Eric Hurley, and – last but not least – Blake Walston.
Two years ago I was postulating that Walston’s low-90s heater would eventually creep up to the mid-90s, but that hasn’t happened, though I still think it’s a distinct possibility. Above-average curveball that flashes plus several times a game and just lacks a little bit of consistency. He’ll also mix in a tightly wound slider and a decent little changeup as well. Walston’s arm action is long, robotic, and stiff.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 50/60 | 35 | 50 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: A native of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Arizona signed the 6-foot-1, 185-pound corner infielder to a deal worth $200,000 during the 2019 signing period. But De Los Santos wouldn’t make his professional debut post-pandemic shutdown. He began the year in the Arizona Complex League, but after slugging .329/.421/.610 with four doubles, two triples, and five homeruns in 25 games, the front office bumped the young slugger up to full season action in early August. And, surprisingly, the then-18-year-old hitter acquitted himself quite nicely (.276/.340/.421). Overall, De Los Santos batted an aggregate .295/.370/.489 with 16 doubles, two triples, and eight homeruns.. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production was 24% better than the league average.
Scouting Report: An under-the-radar teenage hitter – at least for the time being. Good bat speed. Tremendous raw power – particularly to the opposite field. Despite never getting cheated at the plate, De Los Santos made a reasonable amount of contact, especially once he was promoted up to Low-A. In a year, we may be mentioned De Los Santos’s name among the better prospects in baseball. Don’t sleep on this kid.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Bryce Jarvis, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 65 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Bryce’s old man, Kevin Jarvis, was a 21st round pick by the Cincinnati Reds all the way back in 1991, made it to the bigs just three seasons later, and stayed there for 12 seasons. Fun Fact Part II: The elder Jarvis, who tallied (-)4.1 wins above replacement across 187 big league games, earned nearly $9.5 million in his career. Bryce, a well-built 6-foot-2, 195-pound right-hander bested his dad’s draft status by 20 rounds when the Diamondbacks plucked him out of Duke University with the 18th overall pick two years ago. A hard-throwing, sometimes erratic, hurler during his first two years with the Blue Devils, Jarvis was practically unhittable during his four starts in 2020, posting a 40-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 27.0 innings of work. Last season the then-22-year-old righty got his first taste of professional action. And within a few months he was already squaring off against the Double-A competition. In a combined 16 starts with Hillsboro and Amarillo (plus one rehab appearance), Jarvis struck out 89, walked 30, and compiled a 4.42 ERA in 75.1 innings of work. He lost roughly six weeks dealing with a fairly severe oblique injury midseason.
Scouting Report: Above-average or better on each of his four offerings. Jarvis’s heater sits in the 93- to 96-mph range. He’ll mix in a pair of above-average breaking balls: a mid-80s slider and a slightly slower curveball. Last, and certainly not least, is his fantastical changeup, a true swing-and-miss plus offering that borders on plus-plus. Jarvis’s command can be touch-and-go at times, which will ultimately limit his ceiling as a #3/#4-type arm.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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10. Ryne Nelson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A full-time reliever with just five starts on his resume during his time at the University of Oregon. Arizona eyed a different plan when they selected the hard-throwing right-hander in the second round three years ago. Immediately the front office began stretching the former part-time closer out as a starting pitcher. And last season Nelson, who stands a wiry 6-foot-3 and 184 pounds, tossed 116.1 innings between Hillsboro and Amarillo – nearly 10 innings more than his three-year collegiate career at the Pac 12 powerhouse. Making a combined 22 starts, eight in High-A and the other 14 coming a level up, Nelson struck out a whopping 163 and walked just 40 to go along with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. For those counting at home: he averaged an impressive 12.6 strikeouts and just 3.1 walks per nine innings. Not bad for a former reliever.
Scouting Report: Arizona has really cornered the market on hard-throwing former collegiate arms. And there’s quite a bit to like about the group as a whole. And the organization’s player development has done a tremendous job crafting Nelson, a former reliever, into a viable starting pitching candidate. As expected, his fastball lost a tick or two as he transitioned, but it’s still sitting comfortably in the mid-90s with plenty of late, explosive life. He mixes in a couple of above-average breaking balls with a workable changeup. The organization has a strong collection of these types of arms, but they need to drag their development across the finish line.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
