Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Nolan Jones, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 50/60 | 35 | 70 | 50 | 70 |
Background: The Indians have had several notable second round selections sprinkled throughout their storied history: Albert Belle, who looked like a surefire Hall of Famer before injuries derailed his career; Jason Kipnis, who just left the ballclub after nine years and a pair of All-Star appearances; sweet-swinging first baseman and three-time All-Star Sean Casey; southpaw Neil Heaton, who cracked the 1990 N.L. All-Star roster; World Series winning manager John Farrell; and former cult hero Herbert Perry. Most recently, the club added a couple of high profile second round draft picks in Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman. Taken with the 55th overall selection four years ago and signed to an above-slot deal, Jones began to turn some heads after a solid showing in the New York-Penn League during his first full season in the organization as he slugged a hearty .317/.430/.482 as a 19-year-old. The silky smooth, lefty-swinging third baseman continued to impressive the following season, 2018, as he moved into Low Class A and eventually up to High Class A; he batted .283/.405/.466 with 21 doubles and 19 homeruns. Last year, the Holy Ghost Prep High School product opened the season up with dramatic flair as he returned to the Carolina League, going 3-for-6 with a double and pair of RBIs on Opening Day. He would spend slightly more than three months with the Lynchburg Hillcats, hitting an impressive .286/.435/.425 with 20 extra-base knocks. Jones was promoted up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, in early July for the remainder of the year. And, of course, he didn’t miss a beat as he slashed .253/.370/.466 in 49 contests. He spent the fall with the Mesa Solar Sox, going 12-for-60 with p air of doubles and four homeruns.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s reason for concern with Jones moving forward, the same thing that plagued [Lonnie] Chisenhall as well: he’s showing some massive platoon splits; Jones batted .341/.450/.506 vs. RHP and .214/.352/.381 vs. LHP. At first blush Jones looks like a safe, high-ceiling hitter, but he’s more volatile than most realize. I ultimately think the smooth-swinging lefty figures out southpaws enough to ward off any platoon talk.
Scouting Report: Jones’ lengthy, red flag raising history of platoon splits continued once again and, frankly, it showed zero signs of improvement in 2019. The former second round pick slashed a scorching .312/.439/.497 vs. right-handers, but cobbled together a paltry .151/.324/.274 against southpaws. And what’s more concerning: he whiffed in 35.3% of his plate appearances against lefties. So now the good, well, great news: his batted ball data is off the charts. According to FanGraphs, Jones’ average exit velocity was 92 mph last season, tied for the seventh highest mark among the 285 hitters where data is available. His peak exit velocity was 114 m ph, tied for third best among the group. Incredibly patient approach at the plate, Jones, who walked in nearly 18% of his plate appearances last season, is just beginning to tap into his plus in-game power potential. As I stated in last year’s Prospect Digest Handbook, the platoon rates are quite concerning and he remains more volatile than most realize, I ultimately think Jones figures it out. All-Star potential with a ceiling of a Trevor Story-type player (.300/.370/.560).
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2020
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2. George Valera, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 50/60 | 40 | 60/55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: One of the bigger names on the international market three years ago, the club signed the Queens, New York native for a hefty $1.3 million after moving to the Dominican Republic. Valera, though, had his professional debut abruptly cut short courtesy of a broken hamate bone two years ago. But despite appearing in just six rookie league games – as well as suffering an injury that typically saps a hitter’s power – the front office bumped the 5-foot-10, 160-pound outfielder up to the New York-Penn League to begin 2019. And, of course, he struggled a bit as he hit a power-driven .236/.356/.446 with seven doubles, one triple, eight homeruns, and six stolen bases (in eight attempts). Valera also appeared in half-of-a-dozen games in the Midwest League. His overall production in the New York-Penn League, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a surprising 32%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: When Valera connects it’s a loud audible crack off the bat.
Scouting Report: That loud audible crack I mentioned in last year’s Handbook turned out to be some phenomenal exit velocities in 2019: it averaged a whopping 91 mph with a peak of 107 mph. That’s as an 18-year-old squaring off against competition that averaged three years his senior. There’s some big time, plus power potential and well above-average patience mix in. And his strikeout rate last season in the NYPL, 27.7%, barely moves the needle in terms of concern. He was (A) 18-years-old, (B) coming off of a semi-serious injury), (C) limited to six games in rookie ball, and (D) jumped an entire level. There’s some massive, massive upside here. He’s going to be one of the biggest breakout prospects in 2020. Remember the name.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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3. Daniel Espino, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 60 | 45/50 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: Near the late 1990s and early 2000s a 6-foot-3, 229-pound high school-aged hurler captured the sheer imagination of the baseball world every time he toed the rubber. Blessed with ability to unfurl lightning bolt after lightning bolt from his Zeus-ian right arm, Colt Griffin’s fastball would sit – comfortably – in the upper 90s, often times touching triple digits – a rarity now a days, but practically unheard of then. The Kansas City Royals drafted the highly touted youngster with the ninth overall pick in the 2001 draft. Five seasons later he could retire from professional baseball after plateauing in Class AA. Roughly a decade-and-a-half later another massive Texas-born hurler shot up the draft charts as one of 2014’s biggest helium guys on the back of his ability to touch triple-digits. But since the Marlins selected righty Tyler Kolek with the second overall pick that year, he’s been limited to just 163.2 career innings. Enter: Fireballer Daniel Espino, who touched triple-digits with his heater as a junior for Georgia Premier Academy. Espino’s earned a bevy of awards and recognitions, including:
- 2019 Perfect Game Preseason All-American
- 2019 Perfect Game High School Showdown All-Tournament Team
- 2018 Perfect Game High School Showdown Tournament Most Valuable Pitcher
- 2018 Perfect Game Preseason All-American
- 2018 Perfect Game High School Showdown All-Tournament Team
- 2018 Perfect Game National Showcase
- 2018 Perfect Game All-American Classic
- Perfect Game Top Right-Handed Pitcher
But despite notoriety, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound hurler’s stock tumbled a bit in last June’s draft, falling all the way down to the Indians at the 24th overall pick. The ballclub signed him to a deal worth $2.5 million. Espino, who was previously committed to play at Louisiana State University, made nine brief appearances between the Arizona Summer and New York-Penn Leagues during his debut, posting a 34-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 3.80 ERA in 23.2 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Espino prior to the draft last season:
“Easy plus-plus velocity with a wipeout slider, and a knee-buckling curveball. Espino’s fastball shows incredible late action and both breaking balls grade out as plus. He’ll also mix in a rare below-average changeup, though I only witnessed the upper 80s offering once. He shows solid feel for pitching, especially considering his ability to overpower his peers with one pitch. The major knock on the wiry hurler – seemingly – is his long arm action. But his mechanical fluidity, athleticism, and flexibility alleviates a lot of my concerns, personally. Espino’s the best pitching prospect in a weak class – by a wide margin. Of course, there’s concern and risk associated with any hard-throwing youngster but Espino’s ceiling is incredibly high.”
Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Tyler Freeman, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/70 | 40/45 | 40 | 40/45 | 50 | 60 |
Background: At some point in the near future Indians fans are going to look back and realize the impact the second rounds of the 2016 and 2017 drafts had on the organization. The club, of course, drafted top prospect Nolan Jones four years in the middle of the second round. And they followed that up a year later by selecting prep shortstop Tyler Freeman with the 71st overall pick. A product of Etiwanda High School, the speedy, slashing 6-foot, 170-pound infielder immediate made an impact during his debut in the Arizona Summer League as he batted .297/.364/.414 with nine doubles, a pair of homeruns, and five stolen bases. But, perhaps most impressive, he fanned just 12 times. The following year Freeman raised expectations even higher as he slugged a scorching .352/.405/.511 with 29 doubles, four triples, two homeruns, and 14 stolen bases as a 19-year-old in the New York-Penn League. His production that year, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 89%. Freeman opened up last season with Lake County, but after batting .292/.382/.424 in 61 games with the club’s Midwest League affiliate he moved up to High Class A in the second half. In total, the young shortstop hit an impressive .306/.368/.410 with 32 doubles, five triples, three homeruns, and a 19 stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Freeman’s such an odd, fascinating prospect: he has a shot at developing a plus-hit tool to go along with matching speed and average power – all wrapped up at a premium position, whether he settles in at second base (likely) or stays at shortstop. It’s a recipe for a long, successful big league career. But here’s where it gets weird: he doesn’t walk and he rarely, if ever, strikes outs. Expect his walk rate to climb into the 5.5% to 6.0% range as he squares off more advanced pitching in the Midwest League.
Scouting Report: First: his walk rate did climb a bit during his stint in the Midwest League, jumping all the way up to 6.6%. Second: let’s taka e a look at Freeman’s production in High Class A through a historical lens. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to post a 125 to 135 DRC+ with a sub-15% strikeout rate in the Carolina League (min. 250 PA): Neil Walker, who owns a career 106 DRC+ at the big league level; Cheslor Cuthbert, a below average big league bat; and – of course – Tyler Freeman.
The batted ball data is about average, maybe a touch better given his age and level of competition: his average exit velocity was 86 mph last season. But, surprisingly, he doesn’t put the ball on the ground nearly as much as you’d think; roughly just 43% of the time in 2019. The bat speeds average, but he excels at indiscriminately shooting the ball where it’s pitched. The hit tool is going to determine whether he develops into an above-average starter or a super-sub type of player. There’s a chance it develops into a 70-grade and he’s currently profiling as a Kevin Newman-type bat: .310/.350/.430 with double-digit stolen bases.
Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2020
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5. Triston McKenzie, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60 |
Background: It’s been a rough couple of years for the long time top prospect. McKenzie missed the opening couple months of the 2018 season due to a forearm strain. And another major injury – a severe upper back strain – forced the ballclub to shut him down in early March last year. Just as the snake-bitten hurler was on the mend and set to return to action, a strained pectoral shut him down for the remainder of the year. Injuries in back-to-back years not only cost the skinny right-hander precious development time, but it also likely kept him from making his highly anticipated debut. Prior to the 2018 season, the former first round selection was coming off of an incredibly dominant showing in the Carolina League as he averaged 11.7 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings with a 3.46 ERA in 25 starts as a 19-year-old. According to reports at the start of Spring Training, McKenzie’s fully healthy for the 2020 season.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: McKenzie’s fastball is a lot like Miracle Whip – it’s got that tangy zip. It’s a lively mid-90s offering thrown with a surprising amount of ease that plays up even more due to his long limbs. He complements the plus-pitch with a hellacious, knee-buckling curveball and a changeup that flashes above-average. McKenzie pitches off his fastball as well as any young arm in the minor leagues, throwing it to all four quadrants equally well. Barring any injury – or injuries – McKenzie has the chance to develop into a strong #2-type arm.
Scouting Report: The Indians rotation isn’t quite what it at the start of the 2019 season. Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer were traded. And Mike Clevenger will miss some significant time as he recovers from a surgical procedure to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. Meaning: despite missing half of 2018 and all of 2019 due to injuries, there’s a non-zero chance that McKenzie makes 10 or so appearances with the Tribe throughout the year. He’s lost a little of the prospect luster he once owned, but at least last year’s lengthy stay on the disabled list wasn’t a result of a arm injury.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2020/2021
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6. Ethan Hankins, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 50/55 | 55 | 45/50 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: There was a time when Hankins looked like a potential early first round pick. He owned the size – he stands an imposing 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds – with the requisite plus-plus fastball. But a stiff shoulder caused the Geogria-born hurler to tumbled towards the back of the first round; the Tribe drafted him with the 35th overall pick two years ago and signed him to an above-slot deal worth $2,246,022. After an abbreviated debut in rookie ball, Hankins opened last season in the New York-Penn League. And he was…dominating. In eight starts and one relief appearance with the Mahoning Valley Scrappers, the burly righty fanned 43 and walked just 18 to go along with a 1.40 ERA in 38.2 innings of work. Hankins made five additional starts in the Midwest League at the end of the year, fanning 28 and walking 12 in 21.2 innings. For the year he averaged 10.7 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings with a 2.55 ERA.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Hankins has a little of swagger on the mound. And I like that. With clean, repeatable mechanics his control/command should be no worse than average. Hankins has the potential to ascend towards the top of a big league rotation with the floor as a #4 – barring any injury setbacks.
Scouting Report: A thick lower half that looks like he can squat a Buick without breaking a sweat, Hankins can run his plus-plus heater up towards the upper-90s and maintain 95-mph heat late into games. At times it looks like Hankins is merely playing catch with his battery mate, and I’ll look up and he’s touching 96. His average curveball shows a nice shape and has the makings of an above-average pitch with a bit more refinement, something the Indians do exceptionally well (see: Shane Bieber). His 79- to 80-mph slider is tightly wound, an above-average offering. Hankins’ 88- to 89-mph changeup doesn’t shoe a lot of deceptive, though there’s some arm-side run to it. The fastball and fastball command suggest a mid-rotation caliber ceiling, something along the lines of #3/#4. But his changeup needs to tick up for that to happen.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Brayan Rocchio, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 35/40 | 45 | 45+ | 55/60 | 55+ |
Background: The Indians front office hit a homerun on the international market three years ago as they added the likes of George Valera, Aaron Bracho, and – of course – Brayan Rocchio. A 5-foot-10, 150-pound switch-hitter from Caracas, Venezuela, Rocchio ripped through the foreign and stateside rookie leagues during his debut two years ago as he slugged a hearty .335/.390/.442 with 12 doubles, four triples, two homeruns, and 22 stolen bases (in 35 attempts). Rocchio spent his sophomore professional season as one of the younger players in the New York-Penn League. In 69 games with the Mahoning Valley Scrappers, the then-18-year-old middle infielder batted .250/.310/.373 with 12 doubles, three triples, five homeruns, and 14 stolen bases in 22 attempts. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 7%.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Needless to say, but I really like Rocchio moving forward. His glove is a bit raw at shortstop, but should develop enough to keep him at the position. Rocchio has impressive bat speed, perhaps among the top five in the system. His line drive stroke should allow him to spray the ball all over the field with average-ish power. Rocchio’s poised to be one of the bigger breakout prospects in 2019. He has the ceiling as a .290/.330/.440-type hitter. He’s one of the names you haven’t heard, but will.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 18-year-old hitters posted a DRC+ between 102 and 112 with a sub-20% strikeout rate in the New York-Penn League (min. 200 PA): Cito Culver, a first round pick by the Yankees who flamed out, and Brayan Rocchio.
Solid, though far from elite batted ball data last season. Rocchio’s average exit velocity was 85 mph and his peak exit velocity was 102 mph. A slow start to his year, which isn’t surprising, put a damper on his overall numbers. But it’s important to point out that he hit a respectable .271/.329/.403 with five doubles and four homeruns over his 32 games. Short compact swing with the same lightning quickness he displayed the previous year. Very twitchy. A year later, though, I’m not certain on how the power will develop. He’s more of a slasher. His potential plus-glove pushes him up to starter status.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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8. Cody Morris, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Originally taken by the Baltimore Orioles in the 32nd round coming out of Reservoir High School in 2015. Morris, instead, headed to the University of South Carolina to square off against the stiff SEC competition. The real surprise: the Orioles drafted the promising right-hander despite the need for Tommy John surgery, which would eventually keep him out of commission until the 2017 season. After two years in the school’s rotation, the Indians drafted the 6-foot-5, 222-pound right-hander in the seventh round of the 2018 draft. The Indians held big righty out of action until last season. Morris made his professional debut in the Midwest League, posting an impressive 56-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45.0 innings of work. The former Gamecock made another 11 starts in the Carolina League with the Lynchburg Hillcats, fanning 55 and walking 17 in 44.0 innings of work. Overall, Morris finished the year by averaging 11.2 strikeouts and just 2.7 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.35 ERA.
Scouting Report: One of the more underrated arms in the entire minor leagues. And he’s exactly the type of pitcher the Indians have excelled at developing. Morris shows an impressive four-pitch arsenal: his fastball sits in the 93- to 95-mph range and peaked as high as 97-mph during one of the games I saw. His upper-70s curveball buckled a few knees and his Bugs Bunny-esque changeup adds a pair of strong, above-average offerings. He’ll also mix in a decent, average-ish slider as well. The Indians’ brass monitored Morris’ workload rather closely last season, limiting him to just 89.0 innings and allowing him to surpass just 90 pitches in an outing just once. Morris is likely ticketed for a brief return back to High Class A, but he should spend some significant time in the Eastern League as well. Sneaky, sneaky upside. #4-type ceiling.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2021
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9. Bo Naylor, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50/55 | 40/35 | 50 | 50+ | 50+ |
Background: The younger brother of Padres first baseman/corner outfielder Josh Naylor, Bo joined his brother as a fellow first rounder when the Indians called his name at the 29th overall pick two years ago. The younger Naylor acquitted himself nicely during his debut in the Arizona Summer League as he batted a solid .274/.391/.402 with three doubles, three triples, and a pair of homeruns. The front office bumped the lefty-swinging backstop up to the Midwest League for the 2019 season. And unsurprisingly, his numbers took a bit of a hit. In 107 games with the Lake County Captain, Naylor batted .243/.313/.421 with 18 doubles, 10 triples, 11 homeruns, and seven stolen bases. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, the young catcher’s overall production was 2% below the league average mark.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: Naylor’s got a chance to not only outperform his older brother, but also develop into a better-than-average big league catcher.
Scouting Report: The foundation is in place to develop into a better-than-average backstop: above power with the potential to jump into 55-grade territory, a surprising amount of speed, solid hit tool, and a slightly better-than-average glove at a premium position. Not shockingly, Naylor got off to a bit of a slow start as he jumped up to Low Class A last season, batting a lowly .214/.313/.321 over his first 32 games. But once he got his feet underneath of him, he slugged a solid .254/.313/.460 over his final 75 games. Very good athlete. Naylor’s offensive ceiling should settle in the neighborhood of Travis d’Arnaud’s 2019 season in which he batted .251/.312/.433.
Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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10. James Karinchak, RHP
| FB | CB | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 80 | 40 | 50 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Bryant College, which is located in Smithfield, Rhode Island, has produced just 23 draft picks since 1976. Fun Fact Part II: only two of the players – Keith MacWhorter, a 15th round pick by the Dodgers in 1976, and James Karinchak – have cracked a big league roster. A ninth round pick in 2017, Karinchak, the 282nd overall player chosen, began his rapid ascent to the big leagues two years ago as he sprinted through three separate levels in dominant fashion: he averaged a mindboggling 15.0 strikeouts and 6.7 walks per nine innings in 42 games between the Midwest, Carolina, and Eastern Leagues. Last season the hard-throwing reliever battled an early hamstring issue that put him on the deal for roughly two months. But when he was healthy, he was unbelievably dominant. In 30.1 innings between Akron and Columbus, the 6-foot-3, 230-pound hurler struck out an unbelievable 74 hitters – an average of 22.0 strikeouts every nine innings. Twenty-two. Karinchak also made a brief, five-game cameo with the Indians down the stretch as well, fanning eight and walking just one in 5.1 innings of work.
Scouting Report: The level of production far surpassed absurdity that it deserves a newly minted word in the English language. Karinchak struck out 59.2% of the minor league hitters he faced last year. In other words: 74 of the 125 batters he faced off against resulted in a punch out. Two plus-plus pitches: an explosive upper-90s that’s practically unhittable at the top of the strike zone and the filthiest curveball I’ve ever seen in my entire life. The control/command, of course, is problematic , but his high strikeout frequency and lack of hits surrendered help negate it. He’s going to be a 2.0-plus win reliever. If you’ve never seen Karinchak pitch, you’re definitely missing something spectacular.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
