Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Oneil Cruz, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55/60 | 60/50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Originally signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers for a smidgeon under $1 million during the summer of 2015 – which seems so long ago at this point. The Dodgers flipped the gargantuan shortstop, along with right-hander Angel German to Pittsburgh for what amounted to 20.0 regular season and six postseason innings from Tony Watson. And since entering the Pirates’ system Cruz has blossomed into one of the game’s preeminent prospects. After a disappointing first stint in Low-A between both organizations in 2017, Pittsburgh sent the 6-foot-7, 230-pound teenager back down to the South Atlantic League for a do-over. This time, though, he proved up to the task. In 103 games with the West Virginia Power, Cruz slugged .286/.343/.488 with 46 extra-base knocks. He also torched the High-A competition and looked comfortable against Double-A pitching in 2019. Last season, Pittsburgh continued their slow-and-steady approach with the burgeoning star as they sent him back down to Double-A for additional seasoning. In an injury-interrupted 2021, Cruz hit .292/.346/.536 with 15 doubles, five triples, 12 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games with Altoona. He also appeared in six games with the Indianapolis Indians, going 11-for-21. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 58%. A mild forearm strain forced him to miss roughly six weeks during the middle of the year.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Cruz is just beginning to tap into his massive, plus power potential. There’s 30- to 35-homer thunder brewing in his bat. Above-average speed, OK-ish contact rates, above-average defense, and proven production against significantly older competition. Ke’Bryan Hayes is the long term answer at the hot corner. So Cruz will have to beat out former top prospect Cole Tucker for the starting shortstop gig. He could – and should – become a full fledged star, a potential face of the franchise. At his peak, Cruz looks like a .280/.350/.480-type hitter.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters posted a 130 to 140 wRC+ with a 6.0% to 9.0% walk rate and a 22.5% to 24.5% strikeout rate in Double-A with one organization (min. 250 PA): Aaron Cunningham, Neftali Soto, and Oneil Cruz.
The elephant – or maybe giraffe – in the room, of course, is Cruz’s 6-foot-7 frame. Per the invaluable Stathead on Baseball Reference, only four shortstops appeared in at least 100 games in a season who were 6-foot-4: Carlos Correa, Andy Fox, Cal Ripken Jr., and Corey Seager. However, there has never been a shortstop that was 6-foot-5 or taller to appear in at least 100 games at the position in a season. Cruz is two inches taller than that. Offensively speaking, the young Dominican showed improved contact rates, above-average speed with his long, galloping strides, and his in-game power continues to improve. Defensively, is average-ish at the infield’s most important position. One more final thought: the lefty-swinging Cruz handles southpaws and right-handers equally well. He’s still tracking like a .280/.350/.480-type hitter, though there’s obviously more value if he can stick at shortstop instead of moving to the outfielder.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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2. Henry Davis, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 45/30 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: A projected first round pick entering the 2021 season, Davis carried his breakout, COVID shortened sophomore showing into a dominant junior campaign for the Louisville Cardinals. A 6-foot-1, 220-pound backstop out of Bedford, New York, Davis was a four-year letterman at Fox Lane High School en route to earning some national recognition: Perfect Game ranked the young power hitter as the 231st best prospect in the 2018 Class, as well as naming him the New York Player of the Year. Undrafted as a prep player, Davis stepped into Louisville’s lineup as a true freshman without missing a beat: in 45 games for the ACC powerhouse, he slugged .280/.345/.386 with five double, three homeruns, and a solid 18-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Davis’ production exploded during his shortened sophomore campaign, hitting a scorching .372/.481/.698 while fanning just four times in 52 plate appearances. And he was able to carry nearly an identical slash line through his final season in college. In a career high 50 games for Head Coach Dan McDonnell, Davis battered the competition to the tune of .370/.483/.663 with nine doubles, 15 homeruns, 10 stolen bases, and a stellar 31-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Pittsburgh drafted the promising catcher with the top pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $6.5 million, saving the club nearly $2 million to spend elsewhere. Davis appeared in just eight games during his debut, batting .308/.387/.808.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“A late addition to the potential #1 overall pick conversation, Davis has been the best backstop in college baseball – by a wide margin. Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2019, only four ACC hitters have matched the following criteria (min. 175 PA): .360/.460/.630 with a double digit walk rate and a sub-14% strikeout rate. Those four hitters are James Ramsey, Will Craig (of defensive blunder fame), Seth Beer, and Adam Haseley – all of whom were first round selections that never truly panned out. Henry Davis’ offensive production in 2021 would make him the fifth player in the group.
Not overly promising, let’s expand the criteria to all Division I hitters. Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2019, only 13 DI hitters batted .360/.460/.630 with a walk rate between 11% and 15% and a strikeout rate between 10% and 14% (min. 175 PA): Pete Alonso, Josh Jung, Kody Hoese, Andrew Vaughn, D.J. Peterson, David Kerian, Grant Little, Effrey Valdez, Kevin Kaczmarski, Trenton Moses, Mason Katz, Andrew Moritz, and Cameron Cannon.
An old school throwback that refuses to wear batting gloves at the plate, Davis has always shown an advanced approach at the plate – as evidenced by his stellar peripherals. The Louisville standout starts from a modified crouch and generates plus bat speed thanks to his core and lower body. He’s a perennial 20-homerun threat. Defensively, he unfurls a howitzer on potential thieves with the accuracy to match. In terms of upside think: .270/.340/.450.”
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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3. Roansy Contreras, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
Background: Signed by the Yankees for $250,000 in early July 2016, the wiry right-hander would make his unheralded debut the next season, splitting time between the foreign and domestic rookie leagues with modest results (5.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9). Contreras started to come into his own as an 18-year-old in 2018 as he shredded the New York-Penn League competition and mowed down the South Atlantic League hitters, averaging 8.5 strikeouts and just 3.0 walks per nine innings between affiliates. The Peralvillo, Dominican Republic, native would spend the entirety of the 2019 season working out of the Charleston RiverDogs’ rotation, missing a handful of bats (7.7 K/9) as he continued to throw plenty of strikes (2.4 BB/9). After missing the 2020 season due to the COVID-imposed shutdown, the Yankees dealt the wiry 6-foot, 175-pound righty to the Pirates, along with Canaan Smith-Njigba, Miguel Yajure, and Maikol Escotto in exchange for a healthy Jameson Taillon. Contreras spent the majority of last season with Altoona in Double-A, though he did make one start with Indianapolis and another brief, three-inning appearance with the Pirates. He finished the minor league season with 82 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 58.0 innings of work. Like Oneil Cruz, Contreras missed several weeks due to a forearm strain. Following the season, the young right-hander made five starts with the Peoria Javelinas in the AFL, throwing 14.0 innings with 18 punch outs and four walks.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: An interesting low lever arm developing for the Yankees – though I’d bet he’s more likely ticketed as a trade chip rather than a member of the club’s big league roster. Contreras attacks hitters with a loose-armed 93- to 94-mph fastball, an above-average curveball, which he’ll vary the velocity and shape; and a changeup that flashes 55. The line between a solid backend starting pitcher and Jeanmar Gomez isn’t extraordinarily large, but Contreras looks like a contender to take the multiple-inning relief route. The stuff’s solid and he throws strikes. But there’s not one true swing-and-miss offering.
Scouting Report: Though I predicted his impending status as a trade chip two years ago, his once-destined status as a #5-type starting pitcher looks to be underestimated by several margins. Contreras was the first pitcher I scouted in the 2021 season where I was actually in awe in his improved, oft-dominant repertoire. His fastball went from 94-mph all the way up to 97 mph last season. His curveball bumped up from above-average to plus. His changeup found consistency and went from flashing 55 to being a 55-grade offering. He also added a hard 89-mph slider/cutter as well. Perhaps the best part about Contreras emergence as a legitimate, across the board Top 100 prospect: he’s throwing a larger number of quality strikes. He doesn’t possess a true bonafide ace level ceiling, but he’s going to settle in quite nicely as a strong #2.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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4. Liover Peguero, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 40/50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
Background: Originally signed by Arizona for a shade under $500,000 five years ago. The DBacks would eventually flip the Dominican middle infielder, along with former first rounder Brennan Malone and international bonus money to the Pirates for Starling Marte and cash prior to the 2020 season. Prior to the lost COVID 2020 season, Peguero split time between the Pioneer and Northwest Leagues, batting an aggregate .326/.382/.485 in 60 games. Last season, like a lot of the club’s better prospects, he was challenged with aggressive assignments by the Pirates’ front office. And Peguero shined. Brightly. The then-20-year-old shortstop slugged .270/.332/.444 with 19 doubles, two triples, and 14 homeruns. He also swiped 28 bags. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 8%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The offensive numbers in the opening portion of the year are a bit misleading. The Pioneer League tends to inflate numbers quite a bit. But…Peguero’s batted ball data was nothing short of phenomenal. According to FanGraphs, the then-18-year-old posted an average exit velocity of 90 mph with a peak of 105 mph. Solid speed, glove, and a hit tool that could climb to a 55-grade. Arizona’s front office seems determined to push Peguero aggressively through the system as long as he proves himself at a level over a reasonable amount of time. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Pirates take a similar approach. Very intriguing upside.
Scouting Report: As I speculated in The 2020 Handbook, the Pirates aggressively challenged the young shortstop. And his bat proved ready for the test. The power output is a bit misleading, though. The young infielder took full advantage of the Grasshoppers’ incredibly hitter-friendly confines – particularly in the homerun department as he slugged 10 of his 14 dingers at home. There’s a chance for an above-average hit tool, plus speed, and strong defensive contributions. The power is likely going to rest around the 15- to 17-homerun mark.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Perhaps not surprising given the pall of COVID hanging over a mostly lost season, the 2020 Draft opened up with seven straight collegiate picks with the Pirates making the last of those selections when the nabbed New Mexico State University star infielder Nick Gonzales. The only player chosen before the fourth round in school history, Pittsburgh signed the slugging second baseman / shortstop to a deal worth $5,432,400 – the full recommended slot value. A prolific hitter throughout his entire tenure with the Aggies, Gonzales batted .347/.425/.596 as a true freshman, followed it up with a scorching .432/.532/.773 slash line during his sophomore campaign, and looked unstoppable during his 16-game cameo as a junior (.448/.610/1.155). Last season, his first taste of pro ball, the front office pushed the 5-foot-10, 195-pound prospect straight up to High-A to begin his march towards The Show. In 80 games with the Greensboro Grasshoppers, Gonzales slugged .303/.385/.565 with 23 doubles, four triples, 18 homeruns, and seven stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average threshold by a whopping 50%. The former New Mexico Star thumper also appeared in 19 games with the Peoria Javelinas, batting .380/.483/.549.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in High-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 145 to 155 wRC+, a 26% to 28% strikeout rate, and a 9% to 12% walk rate. Those three hitters: future Hall of Famer Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Wagner, and – of course – Nick Gonzales.
There are a couple important factors to consider:
- Gonzales stepped right into High-A with essentially 16 games in between his sophomore and debut professional seasons.
- He fractured a finger diving back to a base and missed – roughly – five weeks of action. Upon his return from the disabled list he batted a lowly .152/.222/.318 over his first 16 games. After that, though, he slugged .335/.430/.625 over his remaining 56 games.
- The Greensboro Grasshoppers’ home ballpark, First National Bank Field, is very friendly to hitters. And it shows in his home/road splits: .322/.393/.673 vs. .265/.373/.435
Gonzales flirted with some questionable swing-and-miss numbers throughout the season – he whiffed 27.4% of his total plate appearances – but he showed steady improvement as he adjusted to minor league pitching. He whiffed in 31.2% of his plate appearances in May, June, and July, but posted a 25.1% mark in August and September. Very solid toolkit and tracking to be an above-average big leaguer. Think: .290/.350/.450.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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6. Quinn Priester, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55/60 | 60 | 60 | N/A | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: Pittsburgh has been incredibly deft at drafting high school arms in the first round over the past several years – though getting them to sign is an entirely different dilemma. Since 2016, the club drafted Nick Lodolo, Shane Baz, Gunnar Hoglund, and Quinn Priester in the opening round, failing to sign Lodolo and Hoglund in 2016 and 2018. Priester, the 18th overall pick in 2019, signed for a hefty $3.4 million deal. A product of Cary-Grove High School, the 6-foot-3, 175-pound right-hander turned in an impressive debut as he made stops in the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues. Last season, the player development engine aggressively assigned the then-20-year-old straight up to High-A, despite throwing just four innings above rookie ball. And Priester proved to be not only up for the task, but also one of the game’s better pitching prospects. In 20 starts with the Grasshoppers, the hard-throwing hurler punched out 98 and walked just 39 to go along with a 3.04 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and a 4.26 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Showing easily repeatable, almost effortless mechanics; Priester attacks hitters with a deadly combination of a lively low- to mid-90s fastball and a sharp, late-breaking curveball – both grading out as plus pitches. His heater will show some solid arm side run at times as well. Reports indicate that he’ll mix in a changeup at times, though he’s mainly a two-pitch hurler at this point. As with a lot of young arms, his third pitch – the changeup – hasn’t been used frequently.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, seven 20-year-old hurlers posted a 23% to 25% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage in High-A with one organization (min. 75 IP): Kyle Muller, Troy Patton, Jesse Biddle, Johnny Barbato, Dan Cortes, Omar Poveda, and Quinn Priester.
Priester handled himself like a 10-year veteran as he navigated the waters of the hitter friendly confines of First National Bank Field, home to the Grasshoppers. Low- to mid-90s fastball, plus curveball, and a newly minted above-average / flashing plus slider. But over the course of a couple games, I never saw Priester’s rumored changeup. There’s more in the tank on the fastball; last season, particularly late in the year as it sat in the 93 mph range. There’s the making of a very good #3-type hurler with some added helium if everything breaks the right way.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Michael Burrows, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: For all their flaws, particularly before the club’s current GM Ben Cherington took over the captain’s chair in 2019, the Pirates have done a fairly solid job of finding impressive talent well beyond the opening round of the draft. In the conversation as the organization’s best late rounder in recent seasons, Pittsburgh unearthed the flame-throwing right-hander in the 11th round, 324th overall. The front office handed him a big $500,000 bonus to forgo his college career and join the organization. The 2018 draft pick made his debut that summer with in the Gulf Coast League, posting a barely-there 0.64 ERA with nine punch outs and four free passes in 14.0 innings of work. Burrows would spend the following season with West Virginia in the New York-Penn League, averaging 8.9 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Last year the 6-foot-2, 183-pound hurler jumped all the way up to High-A. And he dominated in an injury-shortened campaign. In 13 starts, spanning 49.0 innings, Burrows struck out 66 and walked just 20 to go along with a 2.20 ERA. He missed roughly two months with an oblique injury. He did pop up with the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Summer League, fanning 16 and walking five in 15.1 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 33% with a 9% to 11% walk percentage in High-A with one organization (min. 45 IP): Matt Moore, once viewed as the game’s preeminent pitching prospect, Ben Hornbeck, and – of course – Michael Burrows, the former 11th round pick.
If he isn’t my favorite minor league pitching prospect, he’s awfully close to the top of the list at this point. Burrows brings a pair of wickedly overpowering plus pitches to the table: a mid-90s fastball that has as much late life as a greasy jalapeño popper rubbed in your eyes and his power, mid-80s curveball will haunt you like an ex-girlfriend. He’ll mix in an upper-80s, almost too-firm changeup. There’s reliever risk here. But if the changeup comes around, he’s going to be a wipe big league arm. If I were to select one pitcher that comes from an unknown, under-the-radar to reach Shane Bieber territory it would be Michael Burrows.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Jared Jones, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: Like a lot of the organizations owning early selections in the 2020 draft, the Pirates honed in on older, more experienced (read: with more reliable track records) players. The franchise selected a pair of college stars with the 7th and 31st overall picks (Nick Gonzales and Carmen Mlodzinski), but ventured into the prep ranks in the second round, grabbing hard-throwing right-hander Jared Jones – their lone high school pick in the five-round limited draft. Standing 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds, the club signed the La Mirada High School product to a deal worth $2.2 million – roughly $500,000 above the recommended slot bonus. The former University of Texas commit made his anticipated debut with the Bradenton Marauders last season, posting a staggering 103-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 66.0 innings of work. For those counting at home: that’s 14 whiffs every nine innings across 15 starts and three relief outings. He finished the year with a 4.64 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hurlers posted at least a 33% strikeout percentage with a 9% to 12% walk percentage in Low-A with one organization (min. 60 IP): Grayson Rodriguez, the best pitching prospect in the game, Kyle Harrison, and – of course – Jared Jones.
A really, really promising arm that remains incredibly underrated – despite the dominant showing in 2021. Plus, mid-90s heater that sits – comfortably – in the 94- to 95-mph range. A wicked, hard biting 80-mph curveball. A decent little slider that sits in the mid-80s. And an average changeup. The command will likely climb into the 45-grade area in the next 12 to 24 months. The arsenal screams mid-rotation caliber arm, but he needs a more reliable third option if the command doesn’t move into above-average territory.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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9. Tahnaj Thomas, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | 60 | 55 | 40/45 | 60 |
Background: It was the exact type of deal the perpetually rebuilding Pirates needed to make. They shipped off a serviceable, albeit flawed, big league bat in Jordan Luplow, as well as Max Moroff, in exchange for replacement level utility infielder Erik Gonzalez, right-hander Dane Mendoza, and lottery tick Tahnaj Thomas. And that gamble is beginning to payoff for Pittsburgh. Signed out of Freeport, Bahamas, for $200,000 by Cleveland in 2016, Thomas began to blossom in his first season in the Pirates’ organization. In 48.1 innings with the Bristol Pirates, he averaged 11.0 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Last season, despite not throwing a single inning in full season ball prior to the year, Thomas was pushed all the way up to High-A. In 16 starts with the Grasshoppers, he posted a 62-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 60.2 innings. He finished the season with a 5.19 ERA, 6.49 FIP, and a 5.80 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Explosive plus- to plus-fastball with riding, late life. A curveball that may eventually climb into 60-grade territory. And he’ll mix in a changeup, though I didn’t see one. Throw in some improving control / command and Thomas is quietly becoming a legitimate pitching prospect. The wiry right-hander may see another slight uptick in velocity as he gains experience and strength. This is a bit of an aggressive ranking, but he could eventually settle in as a mid-rotation caliber arm with the floor of a high-leverage relief arm.
Scouting Report: There’s always been reliever risk with Thomas. And that was only reinforced after his up-and-down showing in High-A. Thomas’ fastball was sitting – with ease – in the 97- to 100-mph range. He curveball went from a strong 55-grade to a hellacious, knee-buckling bender that haunts hitters’ nightmares. And his changeup, which I didn’t see in 2019, is an above-average, legitimate third weapon. The problem, of course, is command – though it’s not as bad as his 5.2 BB/9 would suggest. After issuing 25 free passes in his first 25.1 innings, Thomas coughed up just 10 free passes over his remaining 35.1 innings. Very high ceiling, even higher risk.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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10. Bubba Chandler, SS RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50/55 | N/A | N/A | 50 | 50 |
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 30/55 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: This isn’t exactly your older brother’s Pirates. And the oft-downtrodden franchise reminded everyone of that fact last July. After selecting Louisville backstop Henry Davis (and signed him to a well below slot deal), Anthony Solometo, and Lonnie White with their first three selections, Pittsburgh took a calculated gamble and picked two-sport phenom Bubba Chandler with the 72nd overall pick. Committed to the Clemson University as both a football and baseball player, the Pirates convinced the quarterback/pitcher/shortstop to bypass any collegiate glory for a hefty $3 million bonus – the equivalent money of a mid- to late- first round draft pick. Ranked as the 19th best quarterback in the country, Chandler, a four-star recruit, punched out 96 hitters in just 44.2 innings as a senior, posting a 1.25 ERA. According to reports, he also batted .411 with 41 runs, 35 RBIs, 12 doubles, and eight homeruns.
Scouting Report: First off, the organization intends on keeping their prized third rounder on both sides of the ball – a la Shohei Ohtani – at least at the beginning stages of his journey. But watching Chandler hit and pitch, it’s immediately clear that his future’s on the mound. It’s not that he’s a bad hitting prospect, but the swing is long – particularly from the left side and it needs a lot of seasoning. Also, it has too much of an uppercut. Unfortunately, I only saw limited game tape of Chandler pitch, but the talent is clear: plus fastball, two solid breaking balls, and a workable changeup. He did not toe the rubber in a Pittsburgh affiliate uniform, so watching him pitch will be a high priority in 2022.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
