Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Andrew Painter, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50/55 | 55 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: The 6-foot-7, 215-pound, hard-throwing right-hander – likely – would have had his choice of any college, but Painter’s recruitment process was rather abbreviated. The University of Miami, according to reports, offered him a scholarship prior to his freshman season at Calvary Christian. But the University of Florida came calling after a camp, which was enough to change his mind. A member of Team USA’s 15U squad in 2018, Painter tied for the team lead in innings pitched (10.0 IP) while recording 13 punch outs, handing out just three free passes, and compiling 0.90 ERA. And, of course, he maintained that level of dominance during the remainder of his high school career. Painter won seven games and lost two to go along with a 1.43 ERA in 53.2 innings as his squad captured the 4A State Championship during his sophomore season. And prior to the pandemic shutdown, the behemoth hurler struck out 33 in 15 innings of work. The 2021 season was just another ordinary campaign of sheer dominance for Painter: in 11 starts, he completed three games, throwing 47 innings with 93 punch outs (17.8 K/9), 15 walks, and a miniscule 0.30 ERA. He finished his high school career with a combined 0.76 ERA in 138.2 innings, while averaging 15.6 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9. The Phillies drafted him with the 13th overall pick last June and signed him to a deal worth $3.9 million. Painter made four brief appearances with the organization’s Florida Complex League, tossing six innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s his pre-draft write up:
“Four average or better offerings with underrated athleticism that allows easy repeatability of his mechanics. Painter’s fastball sits – comfortably – in the mid-90s without a lot of effort. He’ll mix in a pair of breaking balls: an above-average, upper-70s curveball and a solid, low-80s slider. There’s some projection left in the slider that may push it into 55-grade territory. But it’s Painter’s changeup that differentiates him from most high school-aged power pitchers. It’s a mid-80s offering with sink that’s more polished than usual. It’s almost sacrilege to say it, but he’s reminiscent of young Justin Verlander in some ways.”
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate toHigh
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Mick Abel, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 60 | 50 | 40/45 | 60 |
Background: The front office hasn’t generated a ton of value out their first round selections. In fact, their most successful first round pick between 2008 and 2012 was Jesse Biddle, who’s tallied -0.7 Wins Above Replacement during his big league career. They made notable picks in the opening round the next two years, snagging J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola in 2013 and 2014. They missed on Cornelius Randolph in 2015. Mickey Moniak, the top pick in the draft the following year, has been an utter disappointment. And the jury’s still out on Adam Haseley and Alec Bohm. So there’s a lot riding on the club’s three most recent first rounders: Bryson Stott (2019), Mick Abel (2020), and Andrew Painter (2021). The 15th overall pick out Jesuit High School, Abel made his professional debut last season. In an injury-shortened campaign, the 6-foot-5, 190-pound right-hander made 14 starts for Clearwater, throwing 44.2 innings with 66 strikeouts and 27 walks to go along with a 4.43 ERA. He was shutdown in late July with shoulder tendonitis, according to reports.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 19-year-old pitchers in Low-A have thrown at least 40 innings in a season while posting a strikeout percentage north of 33% and walking more than 13% of the hitters they faced: Tyler Glasnow, Cole Ragans, Jeremy Molero, Fabio Martinez, and – of course – young Mick Abel.
In one fell swoop it’s easy to see (A) why Abel was a highly touted prep arm and (B) the sheer amount of risk associated with teenage arms. During an early July start against the Bradenton Marauders, the firebolt-slinging right-hander’s fastball sat anywhere between 94 and 98 mph. He mixed in a plus slurvey-like curveball, and a firm 90 mph changeup. A few reports indicate Abel mixes in a slider and curveball, but it appeared they were one in the same. The command has some ways to go to get to average. The shoulder issue, which was termed as tendonitis, is concerning. Assuming it won’t hamper him in the coming seasons, Abel looks like a viable mid-rotation caliber arm – unless the command ticks up. One final note: he trusts his breaking ball more than most teenagers.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Johan Rojas, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
Background: Arguably the most intriguing prospect in the entire system. Rojas is a dichotomy – of sorts. On one hand he’s just a couple summers removed from signing for a paltry $10,000. But on the other hand Phillies manager – and 15-year big league veteran – Joe Girardi heaped tons of praise on the raw-yet-toolsy center fielder. According to Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer in a late March article last year Girardi summed up his analysis of Rojas rather succinctly, “He’s a plus-plus defender. He’s a plus runner. He has the chance to be a special player. I believe so. I believe there’s Gold Glove potential there.” Now, some of that’s the typical organizational hyperbole. But there’s some truth to Girardi’s assessment. Rojas opened last season in Low-A, hitting a disappointing .240/.305/.374 in 78 games. But after missing a couple weeks in late July / early August, the front office bumped him up to High-A. And he dominated, slugging .344/.419/.563 in 17 games.
Scouting Report: Let the level of intrigue quietly simmer, nearing a boiling point. After an absolutely abysmal start the year in which he batted an awful .184/.231/.281 through his first 26 games, Rojas’ production exploded. He slugged a scorching .296/.368/.476 with 12 doubles, three triples, 10 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases (in only 34 attempts). And the analytics support Girardi’s defensive assessment: according Baseball Prospectus, Rojas saved 3.6 FRAA in 96 games. The swing still needs a bit of work; it’s a bit robotic as times. But it’s simple. 20-homer potential? Check. Plus speed? Check. Rojas could be the club’s best prospect within in a year.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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4. Hans Crouse, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: A second round out of Dana High School in 2017. Crouse, who signed for $1.45 million, was in the midst of a breakout season before the Rangers dealt the lanky right-hander to Philly near the trade deadline last season. He was acquired along with veterans Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, as well as cash, for Spencer Howard, Kevin Gowdy, and Josh Gessner. Crouse made a combined 20 minor league starts between both organizations last season, throwing 85.0 innings with 98 strikeouts and 34 walks to go along with a 3.28 ERA. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound righty made a pair of brief starts with the Phillies at the end of the season, throwing seven innings with just two punch outs and seven walks.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Given the emphasis on his changeup, as well as his 55-grade control/command, I’d expect Crouse’s strikeout percentage to leap several degrees in 2020. Again, there’s some potential #3 caliber status here.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two other 22-year-old Double-A arms met the following criteria in a season with one organization: 75 IP, a strikeout percentage between 28% and 31% and a walk percentage between 9% and 11%. Those two arms: Touki Toussaint and Mike Minor.
Twenty-two-year-old pitchers with (A) three above-average pitches and (B) success at Double-A are pretty rare. Crouse works exclusively from the stretch, which is becoming more en vogue these days. His fastball, during a late season Double-A start, was sitting in the 92-94 mph range and peaked at 95. His slider shows some hard, sweeping cutter-like movement. And his upper 80s changeup is deceiving, an equalizer. He throws plenty of strikes and may eventually see an uptick in command, going from average to above-average. Crouse has some #3/#4-type upside.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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5. Bryson Stott, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 50+ | 50 | 50 |
Background: Only two players from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas were taken higher in the June amateur draft than Bryson Stott, the 14th overall pick in 2019. Matt Williams, member of the Hall of Very Good, was plucked out the school with the third overall pick in 1986, a few selections ahead of right-hander Kevin Brown and 500 Homerun Club member Gary Sheffield. And Donovan Osborne, the 13th pick by the St. Louis Cardinals in 1990 – who was snagged a few picks in front of Hall of Famer Mike Mussina. Stott, a lefty-swinging shortstop, blitzed through three levels during his second professional minor league season, going from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. Stott slugged an aggregate .299/.390/.486 with 26 doubles, a pair of triples, 16 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: I was a little pessimistic about Stott’s future heading into the draft – mainly the power, which showed up significantly better than I expected. There’s some Hunter Dozier type production here.
Scouting Report: With regard to his largest single level stint in 2021 (Double-A), consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hitters in Double-A met the following criteria in a season (min. 300 PA): post a wRC+ between 125 and 135, a walk rate between 9% and 11% and a strikeout rate between 20% and 24%. Those four hitters: Forrest Wall, Matt Curry, Jason Vosler, and – of course – Bryson Stott.
The Hunter Dozier comparison, which I noted two years ago, still seems close enough: Stott may trade some long balls in for some added notches on his batting average. He looks like a low end starter/bench option at this point. But as a quasi-silver lining for Phillies fans: three of the next four college shortstops taken after the former UNLV star – Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Logan Davidson – have all been disappointments.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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6. Logan O’Hoppe, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 30 | 45 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: St. John Baptist has produced four professional ballplayers. Fun Fact Part II: Two of those players, John Habyan and Joe Palumbo, made the big leagues. O’Hoppe, the fourth and latest St. John Baptist High School product, was unearthed in the late, late rounds of the 2018 draft. A 6-foot-2, 185-pound backstop out of New York, O’Hoppe, the 677th overall pick in 2018, earned a nice $215,000 bonus. After signing he simply put together one of the better professional debuts that summer, slugging a hefty .367/.411/.532 with 13 extra-base hits in the Gulf Coast League. His production cratered during his promotion up to short season the following year, but came roaring back in 2021 as he rocketed through three separate levels. O’Hoppe slugged an aggregate .270/.331/.458 with 19 doubles, two triples, 17 homeruns, and six stolen bases between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old High-A hitters to post a wRC+ total between 105 and 115, a walk rate between 7% and 9%, and a strikeout rate between 15% and 20% (min. 350 PA): Max Kepler, Abiatal Avelino, Logan Watkins, Juan Portes, Orlando Martinez, Joe Rizzo, and Logan O’Hoppe.
One of the most underrated catching prospects in the minor leagues. O’Hoppe offers up some interesting, tantalizing potential as a power-oriented backstop who won’t kill a team on defense. And, perhaps, the best news: he makes consistent contact. I think there’s 20- to 25-homer pop brewing in the bat.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Francisco Morales, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 45 | 40 | 45 |
Background: Justanother example of the organization reaching deep into their pockets and handing out a big six-figure bonus on the international free agent market. Morales, who signed on the dotted line for slightly more than $700,000 in 2016, turned in a promising debut the following summer as he posted a 44-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41.1 innings of work in the Gulf Coast League. He spent the next two summers ripping through short season ball and Low-A while racking up promising strikeout totals mixed in with a touch of wavering control. The front office refused to pump the proverbial breaks on his development – despite missing the 2020 season thanks to COVID – and bumped him straight up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, to begin the year. And the results were…not great. Morales continued to miss a tremendous amount of bats – he averaged nearly 12 punch outs per nine innings – but the command/control ballooned to an a career-high (6.5 BB/9). He made two final appearances with Lehigh Valley in Triple-A to cap off his fourth professional season.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some intriguing #3-type potential, maybe more if his changeup becomes a consistent weapon. One final thought: the front office is likely going to start aggressively challenging Morales next season.
Scouting Report: Morales’ listed frame size – 6-foot-4 and 185-pounds – is (A) either wrong or (B) deceiving. Because the Venezuelan-born right-hander looks like he could play either tight or power forward. The big righty attacks hitters with a hyper-focused two-pitch mix: a mid-90s fastball with riding life and a knee-buckling slider with 12-6 break. He’ll – rarely – mix in a rare, underdeveloped changeup as well. Along with lacking a consistent third offering, Morales lack of command almost immediately pushes him into some type of future relief role – unless he seems a major uptick in the next year or two.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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8. Ethan Wilson, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A rarity in high school, at least to my knowledge, Wilson lettered in baseball five times during his career at Andalusia High School. The toolsy outfielder cracked the varsity team’s lineup – for the first time – as an eighth grader. And the 6-foot-1, 210-pound corner outfielder also lettered in football four times and basketball twice. Wilson rattled off a senior season for the ages during his final campaign for the Alabama high school: he also tossed 2,388 yards and aired it out for 29 touchdowns while rushing for 783 yards and another 12 TDs while quarterbacking the football team. Impressive enough, sure, but he led the baseball team to a Class 4A state championship while hitting .529 with 10 homeruns and posting a 12-0 record with a 0.65 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 62 innings on the mound. And that just proved to be a harbinger of things to come. Wilson torched the competition during his freshman season at South Alabama, slugging a robust .345/.453/.686 with 16 doubles, four triples, and 17 homeruns. He was named 2019 Collegiate Baseball Co-Freshman of the Year, Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year, Sun Belt Freshman of the Year, and First-Team Freshman All-America (Collegiate Baseball, Baseball America, and National Collegiate Writers Association). Wilson’s production took a noticeable downturn during his 18-game pre-pandemic sophomore season: .282/.329/.465. And he completed his junior campaign with a triple-slash line somewhere in between: he hit .318/.419/.528 with 13 doubles, four triples, and eight homeruns. The Phillies drafted him in the second round, 49th overall, and signed him to a deal worth slightly more than $1.5 million. He made his professional debut in Low-A, hitting a paltry .215/.282/.374 with four doubles, two triples, three homeruns, and two stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Let’s take a look at Wilson’s dynamic freshman season:
- Between 2011 and 2020, there were only 28 instances in which a Division I hitter – in any conference – met the following criteria (min. 250 PA): hit .340/.440/.670 with a walk rate great than 12% and a sub-18% strikeout rate.
Obviously, the production han’ts quite been back up to the level. But Wilson’s been one of the better bats in college baseball in 2021. Consider how his production stacks up against recent Sun Belt hitters:
- Between 2011 and 2020, only four Sun Belt Conference hitters batted .300/.400/.500 with a sub-10% strikeout rate and a double-digit walk rate (min. 225 PA): Tyler Hannah, Jeremy Patton, Logan Pierce, and Ryan Bottger.
Obviously, it’s not stellar company. But Wilson has a three-year (or two-plus-year) track record of success. Short and stocky, but not quite the typical power associated from a corner outfielder position. Wilson makes a uniform look good though. Not in love with the swing, it’s a bit long and his toe tap might cause some timing issues in the professional ranks. Wilson looks like a tweener: the tools aren’t enough to scream big league left fielder and his lack of positional versatility keeps him from a fourth outfielder role.”
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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9. Jordan Viars, 1B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50/60 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A University of Arkansas commit, Viars, according to reports, was an under-the-radar pick by the Phillies last June. Taken in the third round, 84th overall, and signed to an above-slot bonus worth $747,500. Viars was also the second Arkansas commit to be drafted in 2021 as well. After signing the first baseman / left fielder, who’s built like a brick shithouse, turned in a solid debut showing in the Florida Complex League: he slugged .255/.406/.468 with one double, three homeruns, and two stolen bases in 22 games. He finished his debut with as a solid 12-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 32%.
Scouting Report: Big time raw power, though he didn’t flash much in-game pop during his debut, Viars has 25-homer potential. He’s shown a willingness to work the count and an ability to shoot the ball the other way. Above-average bat speed. Viars could shoot up a lot of prospect lists in the next year or two.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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10. Adam Leverett, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Since 2000 Gordon State College in Barnesville, Georgia, has produced a total of three draft picks: Grant Mullen, a 34th round pick in 2000, Datren Bray, a 19th round pick in 2018, and Adam Leverett, who was snagged in the 15th round three years ago. A wiry, yet strong 6-foot-4 and 190-pound right-hander, Leverett, who signed for a $150,000, rocketed through three separate levels during his second professional season, bouncing from High-A to Double-A and eventually up to Triple-A. In total he tossed 85.1 innings between the three levels, striking out 90, walking 31, and tallying a 3.48 ERA.
Scouting Report: The conversation starts, focuses on, and ends with Leverett’s changeup. It’s filthy. It’s arguably my favorite pitch in the entire minor leagues. It dives. It fades. It has fantastic velo separation. And it’s thrown with phenomenal arm speed. Not to be outdone, Lverett’s fastball is an above-average offering that he locates well. And he’ll mix in a tightly wound average curveball. There’s some backend rotation potential here, especially if he sees an uptick in his curveball.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
