New York Mets Top 10 Prospects for 2023

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1. Francisco Alvarez, C

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Background: The 2018-19 international free agency class may go down as one of the best in recent seasons. Notable prospects include: Marco Luciano, Diego Cartaya, Noelvi Marte, Orelvis Martinez, Jairo Pomares, Kevin Alcantara, Malcom Nunez, and – of course – a young Venezuelan backstop by the name of Francisco Alvarez, who narrowly cracked the Top 10 list by several major publications at that time. New York signed the stocky catcher to a massive $2.3 million deal. And immediately Alvarez (A) proved that the bonus was a significant bargain and (B) established himself as one of the best catching prospects in the minor leagues. The 5-foot-11, 233-pound backstop blitzed through his debut in the Gulf Coast League by slugging .462/.548/.846 in seven games and continued to mash during his extended look in the old Appalachian League as well, batting .282/.378/.443 – at the age of 17. Once minor league baseball returned from its COVID-induced absence, Alvarez shredded the Low-A competition to the tune of .417/.567/.646 over 15 games before earning a trip up to High-A for the remainder of the year. The then-19-year-old finished the season with a .272/.388/.554 slash line. Last season Alvarez continued his barrage on minor league arms as he moved through Double-A, Triple-A, and even squeezed in five games with the Mets as well. Alvarez finished the year with an aggregate .260/.374/.511 minor league slash line with career bests in doubles (22) and homeruns (27). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 36%. He went 2-for-12 with a double and a dinger in his 14-plate appearance cameo in the Bigs as well.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

With Metropolitan fans screaming in frustration due to the offensive punchless duo of Tomás Nido and James McCann, who’s been incredibly disappointing after signing a massive free agency deal two years ago, the calls for Alvarez to take over the reins have grown audibly and virtually loud, but…

Alvarez has the makings of a middle-of-the-lineup thumper, showcasing above-average power and projecting for 35 or so dingers at his peak. Plus patience at the plate. His strikeout rates have ballooned up the past two seasons, going from low-20% early in his career to slightly above the mid-20%. But there’s little concern that the swing-and-miss issues will be a problem in the coming years given the demand of his position and level of competition. For example, over his remaining 80 plate appearances in Double-A, Alvarez fanned just 12 times – or 15% of the time. In terms  of big league ceiling, think: .285/.380/.500 with 30 to 35 homeruns.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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2. Brett Baty, 3B / LF

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5555/6035605070

Background: In the not too distant past the Twins’ farm system sported arguably the top two prospects in baseball – dynamic, tools-laden centerfielder Byron Buxton and power-hitting third baseman Miguel Sano. It was a rarity that one system could contain that much potential big league value wrapped up in their top two minor leaguers. The prospect statuses of the Mets’ dynamic duo of Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty certainly rivals that of Minnesota’s from years past. New York selected Baty in the opening round, 12th overall, just one selection after the Blue Jays snagged budding ace Alek Manoah. The young third baseman, who was on the older side for a prep player that year, showed some offensive prowess during his debut between the Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and New York-Penn Leagues that summer, hitting a power-oriented .234/.368/.452 in 51 games. And after minor league action returned to normal following its COVID absence, Baty shredded the High-A and Double-A competition two years ago, slugging .292/.382/.473 with 22 doubles, one triple, 12 homeruns, and six stolen bases in only 91 games. Last season the lefty-swinging top prospect appeared in 95 minor league games, most of which were with Binghamton, mashing .315/.410/.533 with 22 doubles and a career high 19 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a staggering 58%. He also batted a paltry .184/.244/.342 in 11 games with the Metropolitans as well. 

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters sported a 155 to 165 wRC+ with a 9% to 12% walk rate in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Daulton Varsho, who’s quietly become one of the better, more underrated big leaguers over the past two seasons, Dylan Cozens, and – of course – Brett Baty.

Baty continued adding to his impressive resume as he torched the toughest level in the minor leagues – Double-A. He still hasn’t fully tapped into his plus-power potential, but it’s coming, in a large way. The baby-faced prospect has plenty of room on his lean frame to fill out as he continues to mature. Gorgeous left-handed swing with enough power to slug homeruns off his front foot during mid-pitch adjustments. What makes Baty so effective is his willingness to take the outside pitch the other way. There’s superstar status, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him carve out a better career than presumed top prospect Francisco Alvarez (due to the rigors of catching). There’s the potential to develop into a perennial .300/.380/.500-type hitter. 

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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3. Kodai Senga, RHP

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Background: Even with the history of high profile Nippon Professional Baseball players defecting to the Major Leagues, the arrival – and press – of Kodai Senga rivals those of Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani, Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Seiya Suzuki, and Ichiro. A supremely gifted, triple-digit touching fire-baller, Senga left an indelible mark on the NPB throughout his eleven-year career. Drafted as a developmental prospect by the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks as a 17-year-old in 2020, the 6-foot, 178-pound right-hander would make his professional debut two seasons later, setting in motion a streak of dominance that saw him post four sub-2.00 ERA campaigns and 10 seasons in which he finished with an ERA below 3.00. Senga burst onto the seen as a baby-faced 19-year-old in 2012, posting a sparkling 1.68 ERA across 112.2 innings – though his peripherals were mediocre, at best, as he averaged a lowly 6.7 strikeouts and just 4.5 walks per nine innings. But his strikeout rate exploded the following season as he was shifted to the Hawks’ pen: he posted an 87-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58.1 innings of work. His season would come to a premature end due to a “left flank” injury. Senga returned to the bullpen the following season, continuing his dominance by averaging 11.2 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. But, once again, he dealt with an injury that prematurely curtailed his season. A right shoulder issue knocked him out of commission in mid-June. Senga continued to deal with a right shoulder issues in 2015, as well, though he was able to break the 100-inning threshold for the first time since 2015. The wiry hurler was able to shed the injury woes over the next several seasons, logging at least 121.0 innings of work between 2016 and 2020 while averaging more than a strikeout per inning to go along with some wavering command issues. A left ankle issue put a temporary pause on his newly found ironman streak two years ago, limiting him to just 84.2 innings. In his final campaign for the Hawks, Senga averaged 9.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings while winning 11 games and tallying a 1.94 ERA in 144.0 innings of work. New York signed the Japanese ace to a five-year, $75 million in mid-December. Senga would leave the NPB with numerous accolades, including: three-time All-Star, five-time Japan Series Champion, two-time Mitsui Golden Glove winner, two-time strikeout leader, and the 2020 Pacific League ERA champion.

Scouting Report: Working consistently in the 94- to 96-mph range, Senga’s fastball famous reached 102 mph during the 2017 World Baseball Classic. But his most famous offering is termed the “Ghost Fork”, a ruthlessly diving forkball that shows ungodly tumble and is nearly impossible to hit when he’s ahead in the count. He’ll also mix in a plus slider and an above-average curveball. Senga is the front-runner to capture the National League Rookie of the Year award. He’s has the makings of a #3-type starting pitcher with the potential to average 10.5 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. The question, though, is whether his past injury woes will chew into his playing time. One more thing to watch: NPB’s baseball is slightly smaller than MLB’s ball, so there may be an adjustment period with his Ghost Fork.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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4. Alex Ramirez, OF

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5540/55555040/5560

Background: Aggressively pursued by the club on the international market three years ago. New York convinced the toolsy outfielder to sign with the ball club for a hefty $2.1 million in early July 2019. Ramirez, a native of Santo Domingo, wouldn’t make his debut until the 2021 season – in large part due to the pandemic. Still, though, the Mets’ brass had no qualms about sending the then-18-year-old outfielder straight into Low-A without any prior professional experience. Ramirez responded by batting a respectable .258/.326/.384 with 15 doubles, four triples, five homeruns, and 16 stolen bases. Last season, in a bit of an atypical move, the player development engine sent the young prospect back down to Low-A for additional seasoning. This time, though, Ramirez’s talents were on full display as he slugged .284/.360/.443 with 13 doubles, six triples, six homeruns, and 17 stolen bases. He spent the second half of the season performing well in High-A (.278/.329/.427). Ramirez finished the year with an aggregate .281/.346/.436 line with 30 doubles, seven triples, 11 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases – though he was thrown out 16 times. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the average threshold by a rock solid 19%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a High-A season (min. 225 PA): 100 to 110 wRC+, 5% to 8% walk rate, and a 20% to 24% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Eguy Rosario, Anthony Gose, Wendell Rijo, and – of course – Alex Ramirez. 

Arguably the most athletic player in the entire Mets’ system. There’s superstar potential brewing in the supremely gifted outfielder. Whether everything comes together just right is to be determined. He could be one of the larger breakout candidates in 2023. He’s raw, but the tools are too good to ignore. Plus bat speed, above-average speed, plus-power potential. And despite squaring off against significantly older competition, Ramirez made serious strides in chewing down his strikeout rate to a solid 22.1% last season. With the ball club in a “win now” mode, it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams seek him as the centerpiece of a mid-season deal as soon as 2023. Do not sleep on him. Big time potential.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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5. Kevin Parada, C

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Background: Georgia Tech’s churned out an impressive amount of high end talent throughout the years, sending the likes of Kevin Brown, Mark Teixeira, Nomar Garciaparra, Charlie Blackmon, and Jay Payton to the big leagues. But the ACC conference school’s catching pipeline is even more impressive: Jason Varitek, a twice-drafted first rounder (1993 and 1994), made three All-Star appearances and earned a Gold Glove; Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick in 2007, is a four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner; and, Joey Bart, the second overall pick in 2018, is still trying to find his way in the big leagues. The next big Yellow Jacket catching prospect to hear his name called in the opening round: Kevin Parada. A product of Loyola High School, Parada, who was a three-year letter winner, got off to an impressive start to his collegiate career: in 52 games with the ACC powerhouse, the 6-foot-1, 197-pound backstop slugged .318/.379/.550 with 20 doubles, two triples, and nine homeruns. The California native spent the ensuing summer splitting time with Team USA (.400/.500/.520 in 10 games) and the Chatham Anglers in the Cape Cod League (.250/.344/.321 in nine games). Last season Parada, the consensus top catching prospect in the draft class, continued his assault on the opposition. In 60 games he slugged a scorching .361/.453/.709 with 10 homeruns, one triple, and 26 homeruns – the sixth best total among all Division I hitters. New York drafted him in the opening round, 11th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5,019,753. The 6-foot-1, 197-pound backstop split time between the Complex League and St. Lucie, hitting .275/.455/.425 with three doubles and a homerun in 13 games.  

Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:

“Consider the following:

  • Since 2011, only six Division I hitters slugged at least .350/.450/.700 with a strikeout rate between 8% and 12% in a season (min. 275 PA): Andrew Benintendi, Nick Gonzales, Kody Hoese, D.J. Peterson, Tyler Locklear, and – of course – Kevin Parada, who – by the way – owned the lowest walk rate among the group (9.86%).Benintendi was the seventh overall pick in 2015; Gonzales was the seventh player chosen in 2020; Kody Hoese was nabbed by the Dodgers in the latter part of the 2019 first round; and Peterson was 12th pick in 2013. Locklear will be an early round pick in 2022.

In a similar vein as fellow top prospect Jace Jung, Parada has an interesting – perhaps, odd – timing mechanism at the start of his stance. He tilts the bat nearly straight down his back and nearly covers his face with his lead arm. As the pitcher moves through the windup he’ll get in a move traditional stance. Big time power potential. Solid contact rates. And the ability to drive solid offspeed pitches. Parada doesn’t walk a whole lot, but he should hover around the 7% mark in the professional ranks. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .260/.320/.460 with 20 homeruns.”

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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6. Jett Williams, SS

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Background: Rockwall-Heath High School doesn’t have a particularly lengthy track record of sending prospects into the professional ranks. Just three players – former big league right-hander Jake Thompson (a second round pick by the Tigers in 2012), Canaan Smith-Njigba (a fourth round pick by the Yankees in 2017), and Cole Stilwell (a 38th round pick by the Astros in 2018) – have been drafted out of the Texas-based prep school. Another pair of hurlers – Tyler Ivey and Drew VerHagen – would graduate from Rockwall-Heath, go onto to successful college careers, and become early round selections. Jett Williams, a diminutive pint-sized shortstop, easily surpassed the club’s most notable alums draft statuses. Standing just 5-foot-8 and 175-pounds, Williams was an offensive dynamo during his four-year prep career. After batting .310 as a true-freshman, the middle infielder slugged .346/.460/.519 with a trio of triples and a dinger as a sophomore. He followed that up with a stellar junior campaign: .347/.514/.723 with five doubles, nine triples, five homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. Williams batted a scorching .427 during his final season for the Hawks, who won 35 games and lost just six times. Originally committed to Texas A&M, Williams de-committed and pledged his allegiance to Mississippi State University. New York selected him in the first round, 14th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3.9 million. He appeared in 10 Complex League games, hitting .250/.366/.438.

Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:

“Small in stature but strong. Quick and agile on defense with enough arm to stay at the position. Williams has the potential to be a borderline Gold Glove winner at either side of the keystone – if he’s moved as a professional. Lightning quick bat with surprising pop for a sub-6-foot hitter. Williams has some Nick Madrigal potential as a hitter: strong, borderline incredible bat-to-ball skills with plus speed. He’s going to be a doubles machine that will run into 15 or so homeruns at peak maturity. Bulldog. Gamer.”

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2026

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7. Mark Vientos, 1B / 3B / LF

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Background: Always a bridesmaid, but never the bride. Vientos has been locked behind a litany of the system’s top prospects throughout the years, including current guys like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Alex Ramirez or past notables like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Andres Gimenez, Pete Alonso, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith. But Vientos, a second round pick by the club all the way back in 2017, has continued to plod along the minor league ladder, meticulously climbing each rung, step by step, showing progress all along the way. Vientos’ breakout season came two years ago as he mashed .281/.352/.581 with 18 doubles and a career best 25 homeruns in only 83 games between Binghamton and Syracuse. Last season the corner infielder appeared in 101 games with the club’s Triple-A affiliate, slugging .280/.358/.519 with 16 doubles, one triple (which tied a career best), and 24 homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 29%. Like Alvarez and Baty, Vientos appeared in a handful of games of the big league club, going 6-for-36 with a double and a homeruns in 16 games.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ with a 27% to 30% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Yoan Moncada and – of course – Mark Vientos. Moncada owns a career .253/.334/.425 slash line in 643 big league games.

A more contact oriented hitter during the early parts of his minor league career, Vientos has traded consistent contact for more power the past couple of seasons. He’s been on pace for 43 homeruns every 162 games since the start of 2021, but has whiffed in nearly 29% of his plate appearances during the same period. Fringy-average defense at the hot corner, so his eventual home may be a combination of first base / designated hitter / leftfield in the coming years. Vientos is profiling like a .250/.320/.460-type hitter.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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8. Blade Tidwell, RHP

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Background: Tidwell famously teamed with Ryan Weathers, the seventh overall pick in the 2018 draft, to give the Loretto Mustangs a lethal one-two punch atop their vaunted rotation for a couple of seasons. And while the hard-throwing right-hander’s watched his former teammate earn an extended look with the Padres, Tidwell continued to make his case as any early round pick in 2022. A star on both sides of the ball during his prep career, Tidwell earned a bevy of awards and recognition throughout his teenage years, including: 2019 Tennessee Class A Mr. baseball, 2020 Most Valuable Pitcher at the Perfect Game 18U Battle of the Southeast, and 2020 Perfect Game Preseason All-Americaand All-Southeast Region Selection. The outlet named the big hurler as the 22nd best right-hander in the nation, and the third overall player in the state. COVID, though, prematurely ended his senior campaign after just one game. After going undrafted, Tidwell packed his bags and headed to SEC powerhouse Tennessee – which is hardly Plan B. The 6-foot-4, 207-pound hurler made 18 starts for the Volunteers in 2021, throwing 98.2 innings with 90 strikeouts and 34 walks to go along with a 3.74 ERA. The big righty made a trio of brief appearances for the Stars squad on Team USA, tossing an additional seven innings with nine strikeouts and four walks. Last season began on a bit of a sour note for Tidwell: he missed the opening month-and-a-half dealing with right shoulder soreness and then made a couple of short relief outings once he did make it back to action for the nation’s top team. Tidwell would eventually make four relief appearances and nine starts for the Volunteers, posting a dominating 51-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39.0 innings of work. He finished his sophomore season with a 3.00 ERA. New York snagged him in the second round last July, 52nd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1.85 million. He struck out 11 and walked 7 during his 9.1-inning debut.

Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:

“Despite being a draft-eligible sophomore, Tidwell’s already 21-years-old – the typical age of a junior. The right-hander’s arsenal is highlighted by a mid- to upper-90s heater with plenty of explosive, late life. He’ll complement the plus offering with a trio of offspeed pitches: an average upper-70s curveball, a 55-grade mid-80s slider, and an upper-80s changeup. Tidwell’s command took a step forward during the 2022 season, particularly late in the year. There’s some mid-rotation caliber upside with the floor of a dominant backend reliever. The early season shoulder woes, though, are concerning and would likely push him down into a second round grade if I were interested in drafting him.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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9. Ronny Mauricio, SS

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Background: Another of the club’s high profile, big dollar free agent signings off the international market. New York signed the toolsy, lightning quick bat of Mauricio for a massive $2.1 million. And the club, like they do with a lot of their top youngsters, instantly placed Mauricio on the fast-track to the big leagues. The switch-hitting shortstop spent time in the Appalachian League as a 17-year-old, logged a full season in the old South Atlantic League a year later, and reached Double-A during his age-20 season. Last season, the then-21-year-old San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic native registered a full stint with Binghamton. Appearing in a career best 123 games, Mauricio slugged .259/.296/.472 with career bests in doubles (26), homeruns (26), and stolen bases (20) to go along with a pair of three-baggers. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by just 4%. For his minor league career, Mauricio is sporting a .261/.300/.424 slash line through 404 games spanning four seasons.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, just five 21-year-old hitters posted a 100 to 110 wRC+ with a sub-6.0% walk rate in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Dustin Fowler, Leury Garcia, Josh Vitters, Edinson Rincon, and Ronny Mauricio.

The question has never really been about the tools, but rather is Mauricio (A) willing to walk enough to compliment his value or (B) hit enough to compensate his lack of patience? To this point the answer has been a resounding no and no. Known for his plus-bat speed, the Dominican infielder owns above-average in-game power, above-average speed, a 40-grade hit tool, and enough leather to stick at the infield’s most premium position. But the ceiling remains severely limited due to his terrible approach at the plate.

  • Since 2015, there have been 136 instances in which a qualified hitter walked 5.5% of the time or fewer in a season. Barely 41% of those instances did the hitter post a league average or better offensive season (100 wRC+ or better).

Mauricio’s tracking like a .260/.310/.440 type hitter, but the hit tool has to creep up at least another half-grade for that to happen. 

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2023

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10. Nick Morabito, CF

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5045/5050505050

Background: An interesting little tidbit: Only one former Gonzaga College High School player appeared in a Major League game – right-hander Tom Cantwell, who played a handful of games with the Cincinnati Reds all the way back in 1909 and 1910. And Cantwell, for those that may find it interesting, had two outings at the end of his first season in which he squared off against John McGraw’s vaunted New York Giants club and the other coming against Zack Wheat’s Brooklyn Superbas. Gonzaga College High School went nearly two full decades between draft picks, last sending first baseman Victor Hamisevicz into the Montreal Expos’ system in 2003. Fast forward 19 years and outfielder Nick Morabito heard his name called at the back of the second round by the New York Mets. The District of Columbia Gatorade Player of the Year in 2022, Morabito capped off his amateur career by slugging .545/.644/1.119 with 10 doubles, six triples, and 12 homeruns. The Mets signed him to a deal worth an even $1 million, roughly $125,000 above the recommended slot bonus. He struggled during his brief debut in the Complex League, though, hitting .091/.167/.136 with just one double in 24 plate appearances.  

Scouting Report: Morabito has some solid bloodlines into the game of baseball. Brian, his father, played college ball at James Madison University. And his personal hitting coach, Uncle John, spent a year in the White Sox’s organization after being drafted in the 36th round in 1987. Very simple, easy to maintain swing. Morabito holds his hands close to his body, fully relaxed, before the pitcher begins his motion. Really good looking swing that’s long through the zone and should allow him to continue to spray the ball all over the field. Solid pop, plus runner. He was a shortstop in high school, but likely shifts over to the keystone or center field.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2026

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.

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