Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Brooks Lee, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50/55 | 35 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Despite a few notable alumni – like Ozzie Smith or Mike Krukow or Mitch Haniger – Cal Poly San Luis Obispo is far from a baseball hotbed. The Big West Conference school has produced just one player taken before the third round since 2015 (Spencer Howard). In normal circumstances it would have been a bit odd for Brooks Lee, a likely top prospect in the 2019 draft, to withdraw his name from consideration due to his unusually strong commitment to the Mustangs, but this wasn’t exactly a normal circumstance. Lee’s father, Harry, just happened to be the Head Coach of Cal Poly’s baseball team – and an alumnus of the school. A tremendous athlete since entering San Luis Obispo High School, Lee, a switch-hitting shortstop, was limited to just a pair of contests during his freshman collegiate season – courtesy of a combination of injury (hyper-extended knee) and a pandemic. But after torching the Northwoods League competition that summer, Lee continued to swing a hot bat during breakout follow up season in 2021. In 55 games, the California native posted a whopper of a slash line, .342/.384/.626, with plenty of extra-base firepower: 27 doubles, three triples, and 10 homers. And he didn’t stop hitting that summer as he split time between Team USA’s national squad (.306/.342/.444) and the Cape Cod League (.405/.432/.667). Last season Lee continued to do what he’s always done: hit. In a career best 58 games, he slugged .357/.462/.664 with 25 doubles, one triple, and 15 homeruns. He also swiped three stolen bases in four total attempts. Minnesota selected him in the first round, 8th overall, and signed him to a big $5,675,000 million deal. Lee split his debut between the Complex League, Cedar Rapids, and Wichita, hitting an impressive .303/.389/.451 with six doubles and four homeruns in 139 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only nine Division I hitters batted at least .350/.450/.650 with at least a 1.5 walk-to-strikeout ratio and a walk rate north of 15% in season (min. 275 PA): Andrew Benintendi, Nick Gonzales, Seth Beer, James Ramsey, Peyton Burdick, Jameson Fisher, Tyler Locklear, Chase Chambers, and Brooks Lee.
Lee will have no issues sticking at the most important infield position. Explosive, agile, quick. He may not contend for an annual Gold Glove, but he’s going to provide value on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively speaking, he’s a tough at bat, fighting off pitcher’s pitches and capitalizing on mistakes. More power from the right side and more of a slashing approach from the left. Great bat speed. Great baseball instincts. He may have the highest floor among all prospects in 2022 draft.”
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Marco Raya, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: For a team that’s generally viewed as a well-run organization, the Twins have had some real stinker draft classes in recent years. Take, for example, their 2020 class. Limited to just five rounds due to the COVID-pandemic, Minnesota owned a quartet of picks: #27, #59, #128, and #158. Their first pick, former UNC bopper Aaron Sabato, has failed to his weight in two seasons in pro ball – literally. Former Tennessee outfielder Alerick Soularie, their second selection, has barely hit Sabato’s 230-pound weight. And their final pick, Hawaiian outfielder Kala’i Rosario, whiffed 136 times in only 419 plate appearances in Low-A last season. That leaves the success of the franchise’s entire draft class resting solely on the slight framed shoulders of Marco Raya. A product of United South High School, Raya was only one of the team’s 2020 Draft Class that didn’t debut in 2021; a wonky shoulder forced him to sit out the entire year. Finally healthy in 2022, Raya made 17 starts and a pair of relief appearances with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels, throwing 65.0 innings with an impressive 76-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished his debut showing with a 3.05 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, and a 3.45 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 19-year-old hurlers posted a 28% to 30% strikeout percentage with a 7.5% to 9.5% walk percentage in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Hunter Harvey, Joey Wentz, Tyler Robertson, Benino Pruneda, and – of course – Marco Raya.
Immediately blown away with Raya’s combination of poise, pitchability, command, and deep repertoire. It isn’t hyperbole: Marco Raya may be one of the most underrated pitching prospects in the minor leagues entering 2023. The wiry right-hander was sitting 94- to 95-mph during a late season start last year, showing strong command with his plus heater. But that’s not even half the story. Raya features a pair of plus breaking balls: a low 80s, Jose Berrios-like curveball and mid-80s, horizontally darting slider. Again, that’s not the entire story either because the young right-hander with just over 60 innings of professional experience features an upper-80s, above-average changeup. Raya has several questions that he’ll need to address in the coming years, all of which surround holding up to the rigors of starting and maintaining velocity. But there’s a very high ceiling here, without question. He’s going to shoot up a lot of prospect lists by midway 2023. And he’s one of my favorite prospects heading into the year. Don’t. Sleep. On. Him.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 60 | 55/40 | 80 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: Touted as the “next Eddie Rosario” at the time of his signing. The ball club inked the Santiago, Dominican Republic native to massive free agency deal in early July 2019, handing the international free agent a hefty $2.5 million bonus to join the American League Central Division franchise. Rodriguez would have to wait a while before making his professional debut, though, thanks in large part due to the COVID pandemic. Two years ago the front office brain trust sent the 5-foot-10, 210-pound outfielder to the Complex League – though the results were mediocre, at best, as he batted a .214/.346/.524 while posting a whiff rate of nearly 37%. Last season, Rodriguez was in the midst of a massive breakout before a torn meniscus in early June forced him to miss the remainder of 2022. The injury occurred as he was sliding into third base feet-first on June 8th. He finished the year with a .272/.493/.552 slash line with five doubles, three triples, nine homeruns, and 11 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production crushed the league average threshold by an unfathomable 96%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been 638 instances in which a 19-year-old received 175 plate appearances or more in any Low-A league. Emmanuel Rodriguez’s 196 wRC+ ranks as the greatest total among the group. And just for comparison’s sake, here’s the top five 19-year-old hitters (in descending order):
- #1. Emmanuel Rodriguez (196 wRC+)
- #2. Oscar Taveras (190 wRC+)
- #3. Jarred Kelenic (181 wRC+)
- #4. Byron Buxton (176 wRC+)
- #5. Javier Baez (170 wRC+)
Needless to say, but Rodriguez was in rarified company after just a couple months in Low-A. The toolsy centerfielder owns incredible offensive potential, showcasing present plus in-game power, above-average speed, and plus-plus patience at the plate. Rodriguez, by the way, owns the highest walk rate among all 19-year-old hitters with at least 175 PA in Low-A since 2006. Smooth, easy left-handed swing that should allow for his borderline red flag strikeout numbers to decline in the coming years. Rodriguez also plays with a bit of swagger, a touch of cockiness – which is good. He could pop in a large way in 2023.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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4. Royce Lewis, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: At the onset of his career, Lewis seemed destined for superstardom. The JSerra Catholic High School product went atop the 2017 draft, ahead of Hunter Greene, who had already donned the cover of Sports Illustrated; ahead of Golden Spikes Award winning Brendan McKay; and ahead of Braves young ace Kyle Wright, who tallied 21 wins last season. And Lewis immediately hit the ground running as soon as he joined the Twins’ organization, hitting an aggregate .279/.381/.407 between the old Gulf Coast and Midwest Leagues. Minnesota sent their prized prospect back to Low-A to begin the 2018, but after torching the competition to the tune of .315/.368/.485, the front office bumped him to High-A. And he held his own as a 19-year-old (.255/.327/.377). Then the wheels started to come off the Lewis Express. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound shortstop looked abysmal during his return to Fort Myers (.238/.290/.376) and he was completely overwhelmed during his surprising promotion up to the minors’ toughest level – Double-A (.231/.291/.358). Lewis, like all minor leaguers, would lose the 2020 due to the COVID pandemic. But then he would miss the entire 2021 season recovering from a torn ACL surgery. Finally healthy, at least temporarily, he returned to action in early April as the St. Paul Saints penciled him in as their #2 hitter. The former top pick turned back the clock to better times and immediately started hitting, putting together an impressive .310/.430/.563 through 24 games before Minnesota promoted him up to the big leagues. And he continued to hit for a couple weeks before being sent back down in mid-May. By the end of the month, though, he had hit the disabled list and eventually underwent a second ACL surgery. The former prep star hit .313/.405/.534 with St. Paul in 34 games.
Scouting Report: As part of The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook, I noted that Lewis’ massive leg kick was creating timing issues at the plate as he often failed to get his front foot down in time to begin his swing. Fast forward a few seasons and Lewis has eliminated the leg kick in favor of a more traditional stride. Last season – at least before the major injury – was a major success for the former first rounder as he showed an improved ability to consistently barrel up the baseball. Above-average pop. Solid patience and contact rates. His glove looked decent enough to stay at shortstop, but a second ACL issue may force him to the hot corner or an outfield position. Regardless of the position, he’s still profiling as an impact bat at the game’s pinnacle level. He looks to be a .280/.350/.450 type hitter. I don’t think a move to first base should be taken off the table either. The club has to find a way to keep him healthy and his bat in the lineup.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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5. Connor Prielipp, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 70 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: A product of Wisconsin-based Tomah High School. Prielipp was nearly unhittable – both literally and figuratively – during his final two seasons with the Timberwolves. The well-built left-hander hurled 52 innings during his junior campaign – with the opposition failing to score in 51 of those frames. He would finish his third high school season with a laughably low 0.27 ERA with a whopping 97 punch outs. For those counting at home: he allowed one earned run, the result of the lone extra-base hit he surrendered that year. Prielipp, a projected top pick in the 2019 draft, captured the Wisconsin Gatorade Player of the Year after an equally dominant showing during his senior season: He posted a “bloated” 0.85 ERA across 49 innings of work while racking up a mind-boggling 118 strikeouts (against just five free passes). Again, for those counting at home, 80.2% of the outs accumulated during his mound work came via the punch out. The Red Sox took a late round flier on the lethal lefty, though he would eventually head to the University of Alabama. A year later – as a true freshman – he was named the Tides’ Opening Day starter. He was magnificent across four starts, posting a 35-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio without surrendering a run – earned or unearned – in 21.0 innings of work. After that, though, COVID prematurely forced the end of what promised to be a dominating campaign. Prielipp came back strong for a trio of games during the 2021 season, fanning 12 and walking one in seven innings, before he succumbed to Tommy John surgery. Finally healthy, Prielipp chose not to pitch during the 2022 season, opting, instead, to throw bullpens for Major League clubs. He would finish his collegiate career with a 0.96 ERA, averaging 15.1 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Minnesota would select him in the second round, 48th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,825,000.
Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:
“Prior to the injury, Prielipp showed an above-average, low 90s fastball, sitting in the 92 mph range and touching a tick higher. He complements the 55-grade offering with an elite mid-80s slider, arguably the best in this year’s class – a genuine swing-and-miss offering. He’ll also mix in a low 80s changeup. Even going back to his days at Tomah High School, Prielipp always had a knack for making consistent pitcher’s pitches, showcasing an above-average – maybe even plus – ability to command the strike zone. There’s some Reid Detmers feel to Prielipp. He won’t be an ace, but he could be a very competent mid-rotation caliber arm – assuming the arm won’t give him any issues in the future.”
Prior to the draft, I had a first round grade on the southpaw.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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6. Yunior Severino, 2B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 35 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Severino was inadvertently caught in the Braves’ international free agency scandal several years back and granted another tour on the market. The Twins stepped in and signed the Dominican infielder to large $2.5 million deal in late 2017. Severino’s remained one of the more consistent offensive threats in the minor leagues throughout his career. The 6-foot-1, 189-pound second / third baseman split time between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids two years ago, hitting an aggregate .273/.372/.430 with 29 doubles, two triples, eight homeruns, and a trio of stolen bases. Last season, after appearing in 35 High-A games, Severino returned to work with Cedar Rapids for additional seasoning. He responded with the best half-season of his career, slugging .283/.398/.572 across 46 games, and the front office deemed him ready for the minors’ most challenging test: Double-A. And he maintained his breakout performance as well, hitting .273/.338/.497 in 37 contests with the Surge. Severino finished the year with an aggregate .278/.370/.536 slash line with 17 doubles, two triples, and a career best 19 dingers. His overall production topped the league average mark by 39%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Scouting Report: Severino managed to turn his career high in doubles in 2021 into a career best in long balls last season, despite missing two months due to a thumb contusion at the start of the year. Prorating his output, the young Dominican infielder was on pace for 37 taters over a 162-game schedule. Severino still isn’t elevating the ball with a higher frequency, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can repeat that level of thump in 2023. His strikeout rates tend to fluctuate from red flag to non-concerning. Average defense, but he’s better suited for the hot corner as opposed to the keystone. He’s still tracking like a .255/.310/.440 hitter.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Jose Salas, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 40/45 | 50/40 | 50 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: The Marlins chose the young shortstop to be the Crown Jewel of their 2019 International Free Agency Class, handing Salas a hefty bonus worth $2.8 million. Due to the 2020 COVID season, the 6-foot-2, 191-pound middle infielder wouldn’t make his highly anticipated debut until two years later. But it was worth the wait. Salas smashed the Florida Complex League, slugging .370/.458/.511 through 28 games. And he continued to perform well at the plate during his late-season promotion up to Low-A (.250/.333/.315). Last season, the front office sent their prized Bonus Baby back down to Low-A for an extended look. Salas responded with another promising showing, batting .267/.356/.421 through 61 contests. Miami bumped him up to Beloit at the end of June. He would hit a lowly .230/.319/.340 against the significantly older competition. Salas finished the year with an aggregate .250/.339/.384 with 20 doubles, four triples, nine homeruns, and 33 stolen bases (in 34 total attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 7%. Minnesota acquired Salas, along with veteran right-hander Pablo López and minor league Bryon Chourio, for batting champion Luis Arraez this offseason.
Scouting Report: With respect to his production with Jupiter, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters posted a 118 to 128 wRC+ with an 8% to 10% walk rate and a 19% to 23% strikeout rate in Low-A (min. 250 PA): Nick Franklin, a former consensus Top 100 prospect in the Mariners’ system, Cal Mitchell, and – of course – Jose Salas.
Not quite an elite shortstop prospect, but Salas remains on the outer fringes of the conversation. His overall toolkit isn’t defined by a true standout tool, but rather for its lack of flaws. Salas has a shot to develop an above-average hit tool thanks to his quick bat and above-average bat speed. Plus runner. Average defender. And there’s double-digit homer thump lurking around the corner as well. An extended look at Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2023 isn’t out of the question either.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. David Festa, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: After taking a couple of talented high school kids in the opening round two years ago, the front office ripped off 18 four-year college players over their remaining 19 picks. Festa, the club’s 13th round pick who received a run-of-the-mill $125,000 bonus as the 399th player taken, was a three-year member of Seton Hall’s rotation. The big 6-foot-6, 185-pound right-hander mostly turned in mixed results for the Pirates. He was good, but not great during his freshman season. He got hit pretty hard during his follow up sophomore campaign during the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season. But his work as junior fell somewhere in between as he averaged 8.4 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Festa opened last season up on a tear as he shredded Low-A lumber across five starts before settling in for the long haul with Cedar Rapids. The New Jersey-born behemoth finished the year with 103.2 innings, recording 108 punch outs against only 34 free passes to go along with an aggregate 2.43 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, eleven 22-year-old hurlers posted a 22% to 24% strikeout percentage with a 7.5% to 9.5% walk percentage in any High-A league (min. 75 IP): Deck McGuire, Mat Bowman, Thomas Hatch, Juan Sosa, Camilo Vazquez, Henry Hirsch, Kyle Johnston, Michael Peoples, Taylor Siemens, Domingo Gonzalez, and David Festa.
Festa’s stint in the Florida State League lasted all of five starts, spanning 24.0 innings. His first game was on April 9th and moved up to High-A in mid-May. But the big 6-foot-6, 185-pound right-hander with tons of moving arms and legs clearly left an impression on the opposition. Florida State managers named his plus slider as the league’s best breaking ball, which is saying something. Combine that mid-80s offering with mid- to high-90s heat and an above-average changeup, and it’s clear that the Twins unearthed a potential big league starter in the late rounds of the draft. Festa’s more of a strike-thrower than a command guy, but there’s a #4-type ceiling here.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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9. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The promising right-hander’s been passed around like a bad side dish at Thanksgiving throughout his young career. Taken by the Mets in the second round of the 2018 draft as part of the same class that added Jarred Kelenic to the fold, Woods Richardson’s stay in the Big Apple lasted barely a year before he was packaged along with Anthony Kay for veteran hurler Marcus Stroman. Nearly two years to the day Toronto shipped the 6-foot-3, 210-pound righty to Minnesota as part of the package for another veteran hurler – José Berríos. And, for the most part, Woods Richardson has moved from stop to stop without showing a significant downtown in production – sans his 2021 campaign where he battled control / command demons. Last season, though, the Sugar Land, Texas native regained his previous strike-throwing ability as he posted – arguably – his finest season to date. Making 16 appearances with Wichita and another seven starts with St. Paul, Woods Richardson tossed a career best 107.1 innings, averaging 9.6 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings. He finished the minor league season with a sparkling 2.77 ERA. He capped the year with one big league start against the Tigers, throwing five innings and allowing a pair of earned runs.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 70 IP): 26% to 28% strikeout percentage with an 8% to 10% walk percentage. Those three hurlers: Tommy Hanson, Tyler Clippard, and Simeon Woods Richardson, the oft-traded right-hander.
There’s usually a reason – or at least a driving factor – as to why a consensus Top 100 prospect would get traded multiple times in such a short span (see: Andy Marte). And Richardson’s loss of velocity has to be the culprit. Coming out of high school, Woods Richardson would regularly touch the mid-90s with the heater. Now, though, his fastball is sitting in the 89- to 91-mph. He succeeds with guile, above-average command, and three solid or better secondary weapons. His changeup shows arm side run and fade with solid velocity separation, making it a plus offering. He’ll mix in a curveball and slider with the former being the better option. The Twins have indicated that they’ll work with their promising right-hander to regain the lost mph this offseason. At worst, he’s a backend starter with the ceiling as a #3.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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10. Edouard Julien, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 35/45 | 50 |
Background: The Twins’ 2019 draft class will forever be known for their gigantic swing-and-miss on shortstop Keoni Cavaco. Taken with the 13th overall pick and signed to a hefty $4 million bonus, Cavaco owns a disappointing .224/.276/.346 career slash line. The team selected Cavaco just ahead of the likes of Corbin Carroll and George Kirby. The emergence of Edouard Julien helps ease the disappointment in their top pick. Taken in the 18th round, 539th overall, and signed to a well above-slot bonus worth nearly $500,000, Julien essentially made the leap from the SEC in 2019 to Fort Myers in 2021 without missing a beat. He would slug an aggregate .267/.434/.480 between his time with the Mighty Mussels and the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Last season the front office sent the lefty-swinging infielder straight into the fire of Double-A and Julian walked away smelling like roses, not like burnt ash. Appearing in 113 games with the Surge, Julian slugged a career best .300/.441/.490 with 19 doubles, three triple, 17 homeruns, and 19 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, smashed the league average threshold by 44%. He also continued his dominance in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .400/.563/.686 in 21 games with Glendale.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 23-year-old hitters posted a 140 to 150 wRC+ with a 22% to 26% strikeout rate in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Casey Gillaspie, Kala Ka’aihue, Joe Benson, Kyle Kubitza, and – of course – Edouard Julien. It’s certainly worth pointing out that:
- (A) each member of the group had bloated walk rates and all but Benson walked in more than 14% of their plate appearances during the time frame listed above and
- (B) the first four members of the aforementioned group never developed into tangible big league bats, despite their minor league performances.
Julien played defense like a sieve was attached his hand, posting some well below-average metrics at the keystone. And the bat may not even be enough to compensate for the negative value that he may bring to the table. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him man first base or designated hitter in the coming year because the defense is that bad. Offensively speaking, Julien takes a well-rounded approach at the dish, showcasing an above-average hit tool, 45-grade power, a smattering of speed, and an incredibly patient approach at the plate. He did struggle against southpaws last season (.210/.373/.276), but performed well enough against them during his debut (.244/.409/.422) to suggest it shouldn’t be an ongoing issue as he continues to accrue plate appearances. He could be a .280/.360/.415 hitter in the right big league environment, but there’s more risk here than most realize. He feels like a poor man’s Max Muncy.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
