Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Blake Mitchell, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 45/50 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Outside of young arms, the catching position – particularly – high school-aged catchers come with a tremendous amount of risk. And you don’t have to look any further than the opening round of the midsummer draft. Since 2015, a span of eight classes, big league organizations used a first round selection on teenage catchers just seven times – including one on Tyler Soderstrom, Oakland’s top prospect who splits time between first base and behind the dish. The other players are: Harry Ford (2021), Joe Mack (2021), Drew Romo (2020), Anthony Siegler (2018), Bo Naylor (2018), and Tyler Stephenson (2015). Last season, there were only two teenage backstops to go in the first round: Blake Mitchell and Ralphy Velazquez. Standing 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, Mitchell sparkled during his COVID-abbreviated sophomore season at Sinton High School, slugging .447/.627/.500 in 15 games. The lefty-swinging catcher returned with a vengeance in 2022, mashing .465/.589/.949 with 17 doubles, five triples, and seven homeruns in 37 games. He also captured his first Texas Gatorade Player of the Year. He spent part of the summer playing – albeit struggling a bit – on Team USA’s 18U squad, batting .133/.435/.467. He also tossed 3.2 innings, recording six punch outs against three free passes. Last season was much the same for the promising receiver: he slugged .452/.691/.806 with 15 doubles and six homeruns in 41 games for the Sinton Pirates. He was named the 2022-23 Gatorade Player of the Year for the second time, as well. He also finished his amateur career with 19 appearances on the mound, tallying a 0.69 ERA across 50.2 innings with 96 whiffs and 20 walks. Kansas City drafted the young catcher in the opening round, 8th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4,897,500. Mitchell batted .147/.423/.177 in 13 Complex League games.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Simple left-handed swing that’s geared more towards line drives and gap shots than moon shots. The problem with Mitchell, though, is that he tends to get underneath the ball more frequently than expected due to the length of his swing. His bat speed and athleticism have allowed him to compensate at the amateur level, even at national showcases and tournaments, but there may be some struggles immediately after turning pro. Loud contact when he barrels it, though. Behind the plate, Mitchell projects as an above-average defender with quick movements, agility, and a cannon for an arm (he touched the high-90s as a hurler).”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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2. Mason Barnett, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The Royals have a pretty lengthy, well-established pipeline going from the baseball fields at Auburn University straight to their minor league ballparks. Since selecting their first Tiger in 1982 (shortstop Doug Gilcrease), the franchise has nabbed 12 total players from the program. Most famously being, of course, Bo Jackson, a fourth round pick by Kansas City in the 1987 draft; two rounds later they would select right-hander Tom Gordon, by the way. While Jackson made an indelible mark on the game – and sports in general – the Royals’ earliest draft pick from the school is 2022 third rounder Mason Barnett. An erratic hurler for the SEC-based school, Barnett made stops with Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas in 2023, throwing 114.2 innings while averaging 10.8 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.30 ERA and an even better 3.23 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The problem for Barnett is that everything about him screams future reliever: max effort hurler, below-average command, stocky build. Kansas City will give him a couple years to carve out a spot in the rotation, but he’s ultimately going to slide into a relief role.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, five 22-year-old arms posted a 26.5% to 28.5% strikeout percentage with a 10% to 12% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 75 IP): Sean Manaea, Kyle Bradish, Adam Macko, C.J. Van Eyk, and Mason Barnett.
Everything about Barnett looked better in 2023: velocity, effort to generate that velocity, control, slider, changeup, performance. Simply put: you could make the argument – and one that I happen to agree with – that Barnett is the best pitching prospect in the system. The former Auburn Tiger’s heater was touching upwards of 97 mph. His slider was hellacious, at times showing traditional shape and movement, and at other times it was more sweeper-like. His changeup showed considerable improvement, so much so, in fact, that I’ve bumped it up to a 55. It has tremendous velocity separation and some swing-and-miss ability. His curveball is loopy, too loopy actually, and he should just scrap it all together. He has the best shot in the system to settle in as a league average arm.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Ben Kudrna, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: The first of two local boys the front office selected in the 2021 midsummer draft (the other being Carter Jensen). Kudrna wouldn’t make his debut until the following season, posting an artificially solid 17-game stretch with the Columbia Fireflies. The former second rounder tallied a 3.48 ERA across 72.1 innings, despite averaging just 7.6 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings. Last season, perhaps unsurprisingly, the front office sent the 6-foot-3, 175-pound right-hander back to the Carolina League for some additional seasoning. His ability to miss bats saw a solid uptick, even if the command / control stagnated: he averaged 9.2 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings across 14 appearances. The front office would eventually bump Kudrna up to the Midwest League for eight final starts. He tallied a 34-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40.1 innings with the Quad Cities River Bandits. He finished his sophomore season with a 4.22 ERA, averaging 8.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s athletic enough and lives around the zone enough to project his command as average.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only seven 20-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 60 IP): 23% to 25% strikeout percentage with a 9.5% to 11.5% walk percentage. Those seven hurlers: Jhoan Duran, Emilio Vargas, Tony Santillan, Charlie Neuweiler, Henry Baez, Layonel Ovalles, and – of course – Ben Kudrna.
Kudrna looked much stronger, better built last season than he had in years past. So it’s not surprising that he showed a little more oompf on his fastball than in years past as well, touching as high as 96 during a start I scouted. And, to be frank, his entire repertoire looked better, something that more closely aligns with his former second round draft status. Above-average fastball, a matching slider, and his changeup, which he tends to rely on, adds a third 55-grade offering to his arsenal. The command is improving, but it’s still a 45 that’ll flash 50 during parts of a game. There’s backend potential here. I’m starting to become a Kudrna believer.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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4. Frank Mozzicato, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 65 | 50 | 35/40 | 45 |
Background: There may have been more surprising picks in draft history. And there may have been more controversial picks in draft history. But former Royals General Manager Dayton Moore certainly opened some eyes, turned some heads, and caused pretty much everyone to sit up and say, “Hmm…I didn’t see that coming.” Needless to say, it was quite the shock when KC selected East Catholic High School ace Frank Mozzicato in the opening round, seventh overall, three years ago. And, yes, he signed a reasonably cheap contract: $3.55 million, essentially saving the organization $2 million that could be spread around the rest of the draft. But – to be fair – that plan basically failed given the general state of the farm system. The front office would keep Mozzicato out of action until the following season, 2022, deciding at that point to push the young lefty up to the Carolina League for the start of his career. He would finish his debut campaign with an impressive amount of punch outs (89) and a concerning number of walks (51) in only 69.0 innings of work. Unsurprisingly, the front office sent their former first rounder back to Columbia to begin his sophomore season. Mozzicato responded with a tidy 3.04 ERA across 56.1 innings, averaging 13.6 strikeouts and a (still terrible, but improving) 5.4 walk rate. He made nine final starts with Quad Cities in the Midwest League, posting another concerning 45-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36.2 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Spinning a plus curveball is an inherent ability. It can’t be taught. You can either do it, or you can’t. And Frank Mozzicato can. Beyond that ability, though, he remains raw, a work in progress.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hurlers tallied a 35% to 37% strikeout percentage with one club in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Trevor May, Stephen Gonsalves, Wen Hui Pan, and – of course – Frank Mozzicato. It’s important to note that Mozzicato’s walk percentage, 14.5%, is nearly double that of the other three hurlers in the group.
Let’s start with the positive: Mozzicato’s showed some improvement in a couple key areas – fastball velocity and the quality of his changeup, the importance of latter can’t be overstated. Mozzicato’s heater was topping 93 in each of the four games I scouted, which is a tick or two higher than when I saw him the previous year. It’s still a fringy average offering, but – again – it’s improving. His changeup consistently seemed to catch the Low-A hitters off guard, specifically in the number of swings-and-misses the pitch generated. The curveball is still a dandy, a genuine difference maker that’s strong enough to get him up to the big leagues, even if it is on a temporary basis. Mozzicato has plenty – and I mean PLENTY – of room on his wiry frame to fill out. Adding strength is key, but that’s actually secondary to him finding a stronger feel for the strike zone. Still, though, lefties that can miss bats and spin a breaking ball like him don’t grow on trees.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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5. Cayden Wallace, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 45/50 | 50/40 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: In what turned out to be one of Dayton Moore’s final acts as President of Baseball Operations, the front office grabbed a couple of college bats with their first two picks in the 2022 draft, opting for Virginia Tech outfielder Gavin Cross with the ninth overall pick, and then circling back around to nab Arkansas third baseman Cayden Wallace 40 selections later. One of the younger college prospects available in the draft that summer, Wallace spent only two seasons with the Razorbacks, leaving the school as a .289/.379/.528 hitter in 127 games. And the 5-foot-10, 205-pound third baseman hit the ground running during his professional debut, slugging .294/.369/.468 in 27 games with the club’s Low-A affiliate. But his follow up campaign last season wasn’t nearly as productive or impressive. Kansas City bounced the former second rounder up to the Midwest League at the start of 2023; Wallace responded with a decent .261/.341/.431 slash line in 97 contests. He would appear in another 33 contests in the minors’ toughest level: Double-A. He batted .236/.300/.362 with Northwest Arkansas. His aggregate slash line, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 6% above the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Wallace is a young college bat for his class, so there’s some added projection.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a 21% to 23% strikeout rate, and a 9% to 11% walk rate. Those three bats: Tyler Stephenson, Travis Swaggerty, and Cayden Wallace.
There’s really nothing that screams standout tool for the former second rounder: the swing is a bit long and likely curtails his hit tool in the 45-grade territory; the power’s in the same neighborhood, but I think there’s a little more in the tank; he can play the hot corner sufficiently, but he’ll never be confused for Brooks Robinson; he can run decently, but he’s not a burner. Add it all up and he’s tracking more like a low-end starter than anything else. On the positive side, the typical college player would only be entering their first full season in the minors and Wallace has already spent significant time in Double-A.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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6. Blake Wolters, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | N/A | 50 | 45 |
Background: Under the captainship of former General Manager and President of Baseball Operations Dayton Moore, the Royals put a strong emphasis on pitching. Over the past decade or so the club used first or second round picks on arms like Foster Griffin, Brandon Finnegan, Nolan Watson, Ashe Russell, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato, Jonathan Bowlan, Alec Marsh, Ben Hernandez, and Ben Kudrna, among others. After Moore’s dismissal, his former right-hand man, J.J. Picollo, assumed the reins. And his 2023 draft slanted towards hurlers, snagging pitchers in the second (Blake Wolters), third (Hiro Wyatt), and four rounds (Hunter Owen). A big, burly two-sport, two-way star during his prep career at Mahomet-Seymour High School, Wolters, who was a standpoint basketball player, earned the Gatorade Player of the Year award for the state of Illinois in 2023. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound athlete batted .440 with nine homeruns and 39 RBIs at the plate. And he posted a 0.43 ERA across 48.2 innings of work on the mound, fanning 106 hitters against just 14 free passes. He allowed just 13 base knocks. Kansas City selected him in the second round last July, 44th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.8 million – nearly a million dollars above the recommended slot bonus. He did not make his professional debut last season. He’s likely ticketed for Low-A.
Scouting Report: Wolters saw a significant spike in velocity from his junior to senior seasons, adding five miles-per-hour to his fastball. Throwing consistently in the mid-90s now, the big righty’s heater simply overpowered the prep opposition. He complemented the plus heater with an above-average, low 80s slider. He’ll mix in a rare, average-ish changeup according to reports (Note: I did not see one in game tape). Kansas City paid Wolters like a first round pick, but he lacks the polish of a typical prospect taken that early. There’s #4-type potential.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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7. Nick Loftin, IF/OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Here’s an undeniable fact: Dayton Moore’s track record with first round picks is spotty, at best. Sure, he hit on Mike Moustakas (2007) and Eric Hosmer (2008) during the first years of his tenure at the helm. And, sure, he struck gold with Bobby Witt Jr., the best pick of his GM career, in 2019. He also squeezed in Sean Manaea halfway through his Royals stint too. But beyond that, there’s a lot of disappointment: Aaron Crow, Christian Colon, Kyle Zimmer, Bubba Starling, Hunter Dozier, Foster Griffin, Brandon Finngean, Nick Pratto, Kris Bubic, Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson, and Asa Lacy, among others. The majority would eventually make the big leagues – which is always the goal – but the overall impact is typically negligible. Unfortunately, Nick Loftin is heading down that path – though he’s faring better than his fellow 2020 draft-mate Asa Lacy. Taken with the 32nd overall pick four years ago, Loftin spent the majority of last season squaring off against the International League competition: he hit .270/.344/.444 with 13 doubles, 14 homeruns, and six stolen bases (in 10 total attempts). His overall production with Omaha, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, fell 4% below the league average mark. Kansas City called him up as soon as the calendar flipped to September. He would bat an impressive, though unsustainable, .323/.368/.435 in 19 games.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He still profiles as a low end starting option, but his versatility, contact skills, and speed are best suited for a super-sub role which he already seemed destined for.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been five (5) 24-year-old hitters that posted a 90 to 100 wRC+ mark with a 12% to 14% strikeout rate with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Mauricio Dubón, Todd Cunningham, David Lough, Luis Durango, and – of course – Nick Loftin.
Loftin remains an intriguing older, upper level prospect. He’s an extreme contact bat that rarely misses inside the strike zone and – at times – can actually impact the baseball. His max Exit Velocity with Omaha last season was a surprising 109.9 mph, though his average exit velo was just 87.7 mph. He’s a solid glove man around the infield dirt, which only aids in his overall value. He could be a super-sub on a contending team, but likely carves out a full-time gig in Kansas City for the foreseeable future.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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8. Gavin Cross, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/40 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: About a year-and-a-half removed from the 2022 draft and it’s abundantly clear just how jam-packed with premium talent the first round was. Jackson Holiday looks like a stud. Termarr Johnson looks like a franchise cornerstone, even if his hit tool wasn’t as advanced as everyone thought. Cade Horton’s been everything the Cubs could have hoped for. Brooks Lee and Jace Jung look sturdy. Zach Neto’s already accrued 1.6 Wins Above Replacement in only 84 big league games. Jett Williams is a sparkplug. Justin Crawford, Spencer Jones, Drew Gilbert, and Robby Snelling are all excelling too. That’s not to say there aren’t swings-and-misses (Elijah Green, Jacob Berry), but there was a lot of talent available. Unfortunately for Royals fans, it’s beginning to look like the organization may have come up empty handed, despite holding tightly onto the ninth overall pick. Kansas City opted for Virginia Tech masher Gavin Cross with their first pick. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound centerfielder was coming off of back-to-back monster seasons in the ACC: he slugged .345/.415/.621 as a sophomore and followed that up a .328/.411/.660 slash line. So it’s easy to see why he garnered the early round draft status. And he immediately looked like a potential piece to build around during his debut too, batting .293/.423/.596 in 26 games with the Columbia Fireflies. Then the wheels fell off the damn Gavin CrossExpress. The front office brass sent the toolsy outfielder to the Midwest League at the start of the year, hoping, obviously, he’d blitzed through High-A, and – at the very minimum – look rock solid in Double-A. But Cross looked abysmal in the Midwest League: appearing in 94 contests, the former Hokie hit .206/.300/.383 with 21 doubles, three triples, 12 homeruns, and 23 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 9% below the league average mark.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Watching game tape from 2022, it’s amazing how many of his dingers were off of offspeed pitches. Above-average speed. Decent glove if he stays in center. Very sound prospect.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 85 to 95 wRC+, a double digit walk rate, and a 26.5% to 28.5% whiff rate. Those four bats: Francisco Del Valle, Francisco Hernandez, Evan Marzilli, and Gavin Cross.
A consensus Top 100 Prospect entering last season, Cross – to be completely frank – proved a lot of people wrong, including myself. He looked awful at the plate for the majority of the season. Here’s the thing with Cross: he can absolutely punish stuff middle-in, but he looks very vulnerable on anything on the outside half of the plate, particularly slow stuff. He’ll swing through those or just beat them into the ground. It seems – and feels – way too early to completely disregard Cross as a potential solid big league bat, but he’s definitely giving off J.J. Bleday vibes.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Carter Jensen, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35/40 | 45 | 40/30 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Kansas City’s shot callers opted to take the local route as part of the 2021 draft plan, nabbing Blue Valley Southwest High School ace Ben Kudrna in the second round and then following up with backstop Carter Jensen, a Park Hill High School star, a round later. Signed for a little more than a million dollars, Jensen was not only one of the youngest players in the entire draft, but also looked rock solid during his 19-game debut in the Complex League that summer as well. He batted .281/.388/.404 with a 20-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio between the club’s Gold and Blue rookie league affiliates. But Jensen’s offensive production took a significant step backward during his first exposure to full season action in 2022. He would cobble together a depressingly ineffective .227/.363/.382 slash line. Last season, the front office didn’t stray from his development plan and sent him up to High-A, hoping that the then-19-year-old’s bat would begin to show a heartbeat. It didn’t. Appearing in a career best 116 games with the Quad Cities River Bandits, Jensen hit a lowly .211/.356/.363 with 20 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and (a surprising) 11 stolen bases (while only getting thrown out one time). His overall production, as calculated by FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, still managed to come in 9% above the league average mark.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The lefty-swinging backstop batted a putrid .166/.284/.325 over his first 47 games. Beginning on June 12th through the remainder of the year – a span of 66 games – he batted .272/.417/.424 with 17 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns. If Jensen can repeat his second half, he’ll be one of the ten best catching prospects in the game within a year. A lot of risk here.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters posted a 105 to 115 wRC+ mark with a walk rate of at least 12% with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): Daniel Fields and Carter Jensen. It definitely needs be noted that Jensen’s walk rate (18.5%) is roughly 50% higher than that of Fields (12.6%).
Jensen’s never going to be that swell of a hitter. The swing is too long and he seems exploitable on the outer half of the plate. There’s enough power to keep pitchers honest, but he’s likely going to be capped around 15 homers. He plays a passable catcher, but won’t provide a net positive value with the glove. His lone plus skill is his ability to find first base. He’s tracking like a backup or a low end starter.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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10. Hiro Wyatt, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50/55 | 55 | 55/60 | 45 | 45 |
Background: The bonuses the Royals handed out for their early round draft picks last season resembled a sinusoidal wave: they went way under-slot on their first pick (Blake Mitchell), quickly followed that up with a well-above slot bonus for their second pick (Blake Wolters), then went below the recommended value for Carson Roccaforte, and – of course – handed Hiro Wyatt a hefty $1.5 million pact, which came in around $900,000 above the recommended slot. A product of Staples High School, Wyatt captured the Gatorade Player of the Year Award for the state of Connecticut after his dominating senior campaign. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound right-hander struck out a whopping 90 batters (against just 10 free passes) in only 41.2 innings of work. He finished the year with a tidy 0.67 ERA. The New York-born top prospect also batted .359 with a trio of triples across his first 20 contests as well. He did not make his professional debut last season.
Scouting Report: Heading into the draft, a lot of the talk on Wyatt surrounded his above-average / sometimes-flashing-plus slider. It’ll sit in the upper 70s / low 80s with plenty of horizontally darting movement. And while it profiles as a very strong secondary offering, his changeup was seemingly overlooked. Thrown with tremendous arm speed, Wyatt generates some air-bending fade on his wickedly sneaky change-o’-pace. Above-average fastball in the low- to mid-90s. Wyatt has a very easy motion without looking like he’s maxing out on every pitch. There’s some backend rotation upside with a middle relief floor.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
