Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Brice Matthews, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: One of the bigger “popup” prospects in the 2023 draft class, Matthews, a wiry 6-foot, 190-pound middle infielder, was a moderately touted prospect coming out of Atascocita High School. Prep Baseball Report ranked him as a Top 100 prospect in the state of Texas. And he quietly put together a rock solid freshman campaign at the University of Nebraska: he slugged .273/.381/.462 with eight doubles, one triple, five homeruns, and seven stolen bases in 39 games. Matthews’ sophomore campaign with the Cornhuskers was pretty much a repeat performance: appearing in 45 games with the Big-10 Conference squad, he hit .261/.379/.446 with eight doubles, seven homeruns, and 12 stolen bases. But things all came together for the Texas-born infielder in 2023 as he set career bests in doubles (11), triples (two), homeruns (20), and stolen bases (20) en route to mashing .359/.481/.723. He finished the year with a 53-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Astros of Houston selected him with the 28th overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $2,478,200. Matthews spent the majority of his debut in Low-A, hitting a paltry .217/.373/.367 with six doubles and four dingers in 33 games.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only three Big 10 hitters hit at least .350/.470/.700 in a season (min. 250 PA): Nick Cimillo, Brock Vradenburg, and – of course – Brice Matthews.
The problem for Matthews, at least in the early part of his collegiate career, has been abysmal whiff rates. The 6-foot, 190-pound shortstop swung-and-missed 28.2% of the time as a freshman and that mark slightly increased the following year (28.9%). But he took several noticeable steps forward during his junior campaign, posting a 20% K-rate in a career best 54 games. The tools are in place to be a solid contributor at the big league level: surprising power, above-average speed, and solid glove. It’s all going to come down to the hit tool.”
I had a late second / early third round grade on Matthews.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Jacob Melton, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Heading into the trade deadline last summer, the Astros decided to go all in for another Championship run – which ultimately proved to be future Hall of Famer Dusty Baker’s last ride. In doing so, the front office dipped into their already thin farm system and dealt away their top prospect, Drew Gilbert, along with teenage first baseman / outfielder Ryan Clifford – making former Oregon State grinder Jacob Melton their de facto top draft pick from their 2022 draft class. An absolute monster at the plate during his final two years with the Beavers, Melton, who left college as a career .364/.428/.660 hitter, continued to swing a hot stick during his abbreviated pro debut in 2022, slugging .324/.424/.578 with 19 games with Fayetteville. The front office bounced the toolsy center fielder up to High-A at the start of the year and even though the numbers took a considerable step back as he hit .244/.338/.454. He finished out the year in the fires of Double-A. Overall, he batted a respectable .245/.334/.467 with 17 doubles, one triple, 23 homeruns, and a whopping 46 stolen bases (in 53 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by 16%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Low end starting material who likely demolishes the low levels of the minor leagues.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only six 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a 20% to 22% strikeout rate. Those six hitters: Jacob Heyward, Yasel Antuna, D.J. Burt, Daniel Sweet, Alex Isola, and – of course – Jacob Melton.
The tools have always been evident with Melton: Above-average power, plus speed, the ability to handle an up-the-middle position. But the actual hit tool may prove to be his undoing, which is a tale as old as time. His work – or struggles – against fellow lefties is particularly damning. The former second rounder batted a paltry .182/.308/.346 against southpaws last season. Melton faced a steady stream of breaking balls, especially late in the season, and he did a solid job of handling them. Jordan Luplow-type vibes as solid platoon / bench bat. He should be ready in the next year or two. He’s one of those guys that may burst onto the scene and looked otherworldly before fading back to earth.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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3. Julio Robaina, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 40 | 45 |
Background: Signed by the Astros near the end of the 2017 season for a fairly sizeable bonus ($220,000), Robaina, a native of San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba, showed glimpses of promise during his first two seasons in pro ball – though they were often plagued by poor command / control. But the 5-foot-11, 170-pound southpaw looked rejuvenated when minor league action return to work in 2021: he posted an impressive 88-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.0 innings between Fayetteville and Asheville. A year later, with just 32.1 innings of High-A under his belt, Robaina moved up to the fires of Double-A – though he finished the season a little crispy. He walked a staggering 61 hitters en route to tallying a 6.81 ERA. Unsurprisingly, Houston sent him back down to Double-A for another crack at the minor’s toughest level. This time, though, he proved to be up to the challenge. Making a career best 26 appearances, Robaina tossed 116 innings with 114 whiffs and 48 free passes. He finished the year with a 3.18 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, and a 4.70 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old hurlers that posted a 22% to 24% strikeout percentage with a 9% to 11% walk percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 100 IP): Frankie Montas, Kyle Wright, Jorge López, Wily Peralta, and – of course – Julio Robaina.
For those counting at home: Montas has been a solid starter at the big league level; Wright paced all of Major League Baseball with 21 wins in 2022; López flopped as a big league starter but transformed into an All-Star, although erratic, reliever; and Peralta was once an above-average starter before struggling and eventually finding a home in the bullpen.
One of the more underrated pitching prospects in the game, not because his ceiling is extraordinarily high, but because he’s going to be a surprisingly serviceable big league arm. Standard four-pitch mix: low-90s heater, average curveball, above-average slider, and a 55-grade changeup. He’s never going to be an extreme strike-thrower, but Robaina did live around the zone frequently last season. Astros ace Framber Valdez looked similar at this point in his career, though he had a little more velo on his fastball. He has a non-zero chance to develop into an Eduardo Rodriguez-type starter. It may be a bit of a longshot, but I really like Robaina.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CU | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50/55 | 40/45 | 45 |
Background: After beginning his collegiate career at Texas Christian University and wrapping it up at Louisiana-Lafayette, Arrighetti has become a bit of a darling pitching prospect within the Astros’ severely depleted farm system. The former sixth round pick turned in a rather dominant first full season in pro ball two years ago, reaching Double-A for a handful of starts, and finishing with an impressive 152-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 106.2 innings of work. Last season, Arrighetti – once again – found himself splitting time between two levels: Double-A and Triple-A. He tossed a career-high 124.2 innings, averaging 10.2 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings to go along with an aggregate 4.40 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s tracking like a reliever unless something pops – either added velocity or command.
Scouting Report: Two years ago Arrighetti featured a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. Last season, the former sixth rounder added a fifth weapon to his repertoire: an upper-80s cutter. Arrighetti’s heater is notable for its spin (about 2300 rpms) and vertical break (about 17 to 19 inches). It’ll sit it in the 91- to 93-mph range and touch a tick or two higher on rare occasions. The velocity between his above-average slider and curveball is only a couple miles-per-hours. Average curveball (75- to 77-mph), above-average slider (79- to 81-mph), and a workably average changeup. Arrighetti’s cutter may end up proving to be his best secondary weapon, sitting in the mid- to upper-80s and will show some significant vertical break. The problem, though, is that his feel for the zone waivers. He’s going to be a big league pitcher at some point in 2024, barring any injury, but he’s probably best suited a relief gig / spot-starter role.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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5. Joey Loperfido, 1B/2B/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: JoeyLoperfido represented a first for the Astros: when the front office selected him in the seventh round three years ago he became the organization’s first – and only – draft pick from Duke University. A four-year starter with the Blue Devils – three-and-a-half thanks to COVID – Loperfido was impressively dominant during his redshirt junior campaign, slugging .374/.474/.612 with 19 doubles, three triples, eight homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases. After a disastrous debut showing with Fayetteville in 2021, Loperfido found his stroke and mashed .316/.408/.492 between his stints with Fayetteville and Asheville, belting out 25 doubles, four triples, 12 homeruns, and 32 stolen bases. Last season, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound defensive vagabond blitzed through another brief stint in High-A before impressing during his 84-game cameo in Double-A. He spent the last month or so in Triple-A. Overall, Loperfido slugged .278/.370/.510 with 27 doubles, three triples, and a career best 25 homeruns to go along with 27 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by 25%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 24-year-olds met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 138 to 148 wRC+ with a 21% to 23% strikeout rate and a double-digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Blake Tekotte, John Raynor, and – of course – Joey Loperfido.
If Loperfido was two years younger he’d be a Guy because he hits a lot of important checkboxes: decent hit tool, above-average power, above-average speed, surprisingly effective defensive versatility. But he’s now entering his age-25, which limits his ceiling somewhat. Good looking swing and a willingness to shoot the ball the other way, Loperfido’s never battled swing-and-miss issues until his abbreviated stint in Triple-A. There’s definite big league value to be had here, and he figures to be a useful role piece – especially with his versatility – for the contending Astros in 2024. Ben Zobrist-lite.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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6. Zach Dezenzo, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: As much as it pains a former Buckeye like myself to say, but The Ohio State University has failed to produce a whole lot of baseball talent throughout the years. Beyond Nick Swisher, the ultimate Bro, and the supremely underrated Dave Burba, only three other Buckeyes have accrued more than 1.0 WAR in their career: Cory Luebke (2.4 WAR), Bill Sharp (1.9), and Barry Bonnell (1.7). Houston grabbed Dezenzo in the 12th round two years ago after strong seasons in 2021 and 2022. Dezenzo, a career .281/.362/.538 hitter with the Buckeyes, turned in a solid, albeit abbreviated, debut in Low-A that summer, hitting .255/.342/.402 in 28 games with Fayetteville. Last season, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound infielder looked like the second coming of Ted Williams during his blitz through High-A, slugging .407/.474/.628 with 11 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns in only 31 games. Houston bumped him up to Double-A for the remainder of the year. He batted an impressive .257/.339/.486 with 12 doubles, one triple, 14 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases in only 63 games with Corpus Christi. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 14% above the Double-A league average.
Scouting Report: Just for fun, here are Dezenzo’s stats with Corpus Christi prorated for a full 162-game season: 36 doubles, three triples, 36 homeruns, and 41 stolen bases. Not too shabby for a recent 12th round pick who signed for just $125,000. Here’s how his numbers stack up against his recent peers:
Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters posted a 110 to 120 wRC+ with a 27% to 30% strikeout rate and an 8.5% to 10.5% walk rate. Those three hitters: Edwin Diaz, Carlos De La Cruz, and Zach Dezenzo.
A big hulking third baseman that won’t get cheated at the dish. Dezenzo has easy plus raw power and it may even get to that point during games as well. He’s surprisingly athletic for a player of his size (6-foot-4 and 220 pounds). He plays a passable third base, but he’s likely going to end up across the diamond at some point. The hit tool is a 40, maybe a 45 if you squint hard enough. There’s some potential here as a J.D. Davis-type potential. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .240/.320/.440.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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7. Luis Baez, LF/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35/40 | 60 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 45 |
Background: While most organization’s value youth, particularly when it comes to acquiring talent, the Astros have always been one to buck any trends – especially when it comes to international free agents. Cristian Javier, one of the club’s workhorses over the past couple years, didn’t sign his first pro contract until he was 18-years-old. And Jose Urquidy, forever an unsung hero, was poached off the international market during the same signing period as a geriatric 20-year-old. So it’s not surprising that the front office spent the largest portion of their international free agency capital on 18-year-old Luis Baez late January of 2022. Baez would make his debut a few months later in the foreign rookie league, manhandling the unrefined competition to the tune of .305/.351/.552 while sporting an alarming 25.2% whiff rate. Last season, the club sent the 6-foot-1, 205-pound outfielder to the Complex League where he showed a better feel with the bat across a couple weeks (.271/.434/.661). Baez, though, would spend the majority of the year with Fayetteville, batting a mediocre .239/.324/.413 with 13 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns. His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, still topped the league average mark by 8%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s definite risk here, but he’ll go as far as the actual hit tool carries him.
Scouting Report: The bat speed looks significantly better than it did two years ago, though his contact rate slightly worsened during his abbreviated 41-game stint in Low-A (26.8%). The power’s easy to dream upon, especially for a 19-year-old sporting plus thump, but the hit tool is going to be a river he’s going to have to navigate through. He’ll pound a fastball, but looks very susceptible to breaking balls low-and-away. The power’s going to play, but the hit tool may not.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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8. Jaime Melendez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 40/45 | 45 |
Background: Along with Julio Robaina, Melendez adds another intriguing arm to a depleted Houston farm system. Signed out of Puebla, Mexico for slightly less than $200,000 four years ago, the diminutive right-hander has displayed the consistent ability to (A) miss a ton of bats on the back of his explosive mid-90s fastball and (B) issue free passes like nobody’s business. In his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League months after signing, the 5-foot-8, 190-pound youngster fanned 39 and walked 16 in only 28.1 innings of work. By the end of 2021 he was up in Double-A for a brief cup of coffee. He finished that year with a 90-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 58.0 innings (14/9 and 5.1 BB/9). The following year, 2022, Melendez was – once again – back in Double-A missing bats and issuing walks as 20-year-old. Last season, the Mexican-born hurler was limited to just three appearances before hitting the DL with inflammation of the sacroiliac joint and missed the remained of the year. He did pop back up with the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, throwing 3.2 innings with three punch outs and – of course – six free passes. He surrendered a pair of earned runs during his brief stint as well.
Scouting Report: One of the best repertoires in the entire system. When he’s healthy Melendez’s explosive-laden heater will sit in the 95- to 96-mph range and touch a tick or two higher occasionally as well. The plus offering generates a lot of late swings (and misses), suggesting some very good ride. He’ll mix in an above-average power curveball (85 mph) and an equally hard slider – with the former the better offering. Melendez’s curveball is more up-and-down and his slider darts more east-and-west. He’ll also mix in an above-average changeup, which may be his best secondary weapon. Beyond the command issues the 5-foot-8, 190-pound right-hander has an uphill battle to convince the powers-that-be that he can remain in the rotation. I’m still bullish on his potential to at least replicate Cristian Javier’s 2021 with Houston: 27 relief appearances, nine starts, 101.1 innings, 11.5 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Kenedy Corona, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 45 | 60 | 50 | 70 | 45 |
Background: This one’s been a long time coming. The Metropolitans signed the Venezuelan outfielder all the way back in 2019 for the insignificant sum of $10,000. But the best part: he was an elderly 19-years-old. Eight months after joining New York, he was dealt away to the Astros as part of the package for veteran outfielder Jake Marisnick. It would take Corona another three-plus years to get up to Double-A. But, surprisingly, the 5-foot-10, 184-pound outfielder looks respectable at the dish with Corpus Christi last season. He batted .244/.325/.449 with 21 doubles, four triples, and career bests in homeruns (22) and stolen bases (32). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by one percent. Following the year, Corona was (A) added to the Astros’ 40-man and (B) was named a 2023 Minor League Rawlings Gold Glove winner. He appeared in seven games with Mesa in the AZL, hitting .240/.296/.320 with a pair of doubles.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A season (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, 25% to 27% strikeout rate, and a 9% to 11% walk rate. Those three hitters: Denny Almonte, Michael Crouse, and – of course – Kenedy Corona.
So let’s start with the leatherwork: the Gold Glove was definitely legitimate. Per Clay Davenport’s metric, Corona was a plus-10 in center field and a plus-4 in right field. Elite defense, the type that will keep him on big league radars regardless of the offensive performance – which is good because, let’s be honest, the bat isn’t going to add a whole lot of value. Questionable hit tool that may wind up in Myles Straw territory. Corona, though, does have plus speed and average pop to help buoy his value. The total package is enough that even if he hits .220/.290/.380 he could be a solid contributor overall.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Alonzo Tredwell, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 45 |
Background: Mater Dei High School’s had more than a few notable players walk through their hallowed halls, including: Mike Hessman, the all-time homerun leader in the minor leagues, Ryan McMahon, veteran reliever Sergio Santos, who was a converted shortstop, by the way, and former Yankees infielder Bob Meacham. But none of those aforementioned big leaguers could stand up to Alonzo Tredwell – at least physically, speaking. The young right-hander, who missed part of his prep career recovering from Tommy John surgery, stands a towering 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds. The massive hurler spent his first year with UCLA working out of the club’s pen, posting a dominating 62-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a tidy 2.11 ERA and saving six games in 47.0 innings of work. Last season, the Bruins transitioned Tredwell into a full-time starting gig – at least until another injury prematurely knocked him out of commission in early May. Making nine starts for the Pac-12 powerhouse, Tredwell struck out 51 hitters (against just 12 walks) in 45.1 innings of work. Undisclosed back and rib injuries forced him to miss the remaining several weeks of the season. Houston selected the mammoth righty in the second round, 61st overall, and signed him to a deal worth a smidgeon below $1.5 million.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Tredwell throws a surprising amount of strikes for someone his height. But the velocity isn’t as overpowering as expected. The big right-hander’s heater typically works in the 92- to 93-mph range, though his frame helps add a little bit on the back end. His 12-6 curveball, which sits in the upper 70s, is his best secondary offering. He’ll also feature an average low 80s slider and an average mid-80s changeup. Unless his fastball finds another consistent gear, it’s not going to be overpowering in the minors.”
Ceiling: 1.0 to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
