Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Gavin Cross, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Continuing the trend of 2022 Top Draft Prospects with strong bloodlines to professional baseball, Cross’s father, Adam, squeezed in three minor league seasons in the mid-1990s with the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves. The elder Cross was speedy infielder with doubles power and little offensive upside. Gavin Cross, on the other hand, is a potential five-tool outfielder and a potential Top 5 pick heading into the 2022 Draft. A product of Tennessee High, where he set the state record for stolen bases with 40 during his junior season, Cross got off to a tremendous start to his collegiate career – until COVID prematurely cut the season short. He would slug .369/.409/.385 in 16 games with the Hokies. The next season, 2021, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder added a new dimension to his offensive repertoire: power. And he was nearly unstoppable. In 57 games, Cross batted .345/.415/.621 with 13 doubles, five triples, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped nine bags in 13 attempts. He spent part of the ensuing summer leading Team USA’s collegiate squad in batting average (.455) and slugging percentage (.879) while tying for the team lead with four homeruns. Last season Cross continued to dominate the competition, slugging .328/.411/.660 with career bests in doubles (14), triples (eight), homeruns (17), and stolen bases (12). Kansas City selected him in the first round, ninth overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5,200,400. Cross mashed .312/.437/.633 with seven doubles, two triples, eight homeruns, and four stolen bases in 29 games during his debut – all but three coming with the Fireflies of Columbia.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, five ACC hitters met the following criteria in a season (min. 250 PA): bat at least .320/.400/.650 with a double-digit walk rate and a strikeout rate between 13% and 15%. Those five hitters: Brendan McKay, James Ramsey, Drew Ellis, Tanner Schobel, and – of course – Gavin Cross.
Virginia Tech doesn’t exactly have a strong track record of producing big league talent, the best being Joe Saunders and Chad Pinder. And the ACC Conference School has produced just one first round pick – Joe Saunders – since 1989. Cross has solid power to all fields, but his nitro zone is down and in. He should be able to handle tough lefties. Strong ability to adjust mid-pitch for offspeed offerings and still barrel up the ball. Watching game tape from 2022, it’s amazing how many of his dingers were off of offspeed pitches. Above-average speed. Decent glove if he stays in center. Very sound prospect. The Guardians won’t have a shot at drafting him, but he’s a very typical Cleveland prospect. Pittsburgh and Miami seem like logical landing spots.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Cayden Wallace, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/60 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
ackground: Heading into the 2022 MLB Draft, only one former Greenbrier High School product has trekked a road into professional baseball: Paxton Wallace, who’s seeing some time in the low levels of the Angels organization. Paxton happens to be the older brother of Cayden, one of the nation’s best bats in this year’s draft class. A dynamic middle-of-the-lineup force during his prep career, the younger Wallace brother batted .514 with six dingers as a junior. And, despite playing in eight games before the pandemic-imposed shutdown, he was named Arkansas Gatorade Player of the Year. Wallace put together a rock solid showing as a true freshman for the Razorbacks, hitting .279/.369/.500 with 11 doubles and 14 homeruns in 60 games for the SEC conference squad. He spent the summer handling the Cape Cod League pitching with aplomb, batting .290/.352/.468 with five doubles and a pair of homeruns in 18 games with the Bourne Braves. Last season, the young sophomore set career bests in nearly every offensive category, including: batting average (.298), on-base percentage (.387), slugging percentage (.553), doubles (20), triples (one), homeruns (16), stolen bases (12), and RBIs (60). Kansas City snagged him in the second round, 49th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,697,500. Wallace slugged .294/.369/.468 with seven doubles, three triples, two homeruns, and eight stolen bases in 27 games with Columbia.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only six SEC hitters posted an OPS total between .920 and .960 with a strikeout rate between 15% and 20% and a walk rate north of 11% in a season (min. 275 PA): Dominique Thompson-Williams, Tyler Keenan, Ryan Tella, Max Kuhn, Sikes Orvis, and – of course – Cayden Wallace.
Wallace made some mechanical tweaks between his solid freshman and standout sophomore seasons with the Razorbacks. He’s standing more upright, with his hands lower and closer to his body. Despite slugging a career best 16 homeruns in 2022, Wallace is just beginning to scratch the surface of his prodigious homerun power. Solid base runner. Plus-power potential. Average hit tool. Wallace is a young college bat for his class, so there’s some added projection. He looks like a back-of-the-first round type talent Oakland (#19), Toronto (#23), and Milwaukee (#27) seem like ideal landing spots.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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3. Angel Zerpa, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: During the 2016 summer, the Royals could have invested $10,000 in limitless ways – upgrade a concession stand or two, or maybe use the funds towards a fan appreciation night. Instead the front office did the wise thing: they convinced a stocky southpaw from Valle de la Pascua, Venezuela to join the organization. A small pittance, even by standards several decades ago, Zerpa dominated the foreign rookie league the following summer, tallying a tidy 1.84 ERA in 63.2 innings – though he barely missed any bats (39 punch outs). The team pushed him stateside and Zerpa continued to hold his own and saw a modest uptick in his strikeout rate as well. The next season, 2019, Zerpa continued his slow trek through the minor leagues as he moved up to the Appalachian and Pioneer Leagues and – once again – he saw a jump in his whiff numbers as he averaged a career best 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Then the club unleashed him on full-season action in 2021. And Zerpa blitzed through High-A, Double-A, Triple-A, and he managed to squeeze in a brief 5.0-inning start in The Show. Last season, despite missing more than a month due to a knee injury, the 6-foot, 220-pound southpaw recorded a 69-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71.2 innings between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He tossed another 11.0 innings with Kansas City, striking out and walking a trio.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have eleven 22-year-old hurlers that posted a 24% to 26% strikeout percentage with 6.5% to 8.5% walk percentage in any Double-A league (min. 60 IP): Alex Cobb, Anibal Sanchez, Brian Moran, Brian Shaffer, Fernando Hernandez, Jackson Kowar, Juan Gutierrez, Luke Jackson, Mitch Talbot, Trevor Stephan, and Ángel Zerpa.
Low three-quarter slinger that unfurls a 93- to 95-mph fastball that plays up do to his release point. He’ll complement the plus offering with a pair of above-average offspeed pitches: a mid-80s, horizontally darting slider and a mid-80s, firm changeup. Zerpa’s ability to command the strike zone with all three pitches makes him the safest bet in the Royals’ system to reach their potential. #4-top ceiling.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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4. Carter Jensen, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 40/50 | 40/35 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Jensen and right-hander Ben Kudrna were supposed to be roommates at Louisiana State University. Instead, they joined the same organization, just 35 picks apart, and spent the entirety of 2022 playing for the Fireflies of Columbia. The 78th overall pick two years ago, Kansas City signed the lefty-swinging teenage backstop to a deal worth slightly more than $1 million. Jensen, who happened to grow up a stone’s throw from Kauffman Stadium, turned in an impressive debut in the Complex League as he slugged .281/.388/.404 with four extra-base hits in 19 games. Last season, though, was a completely different story. Appearing in 113 games with the club’s Low-A affiliate, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound backstop batted a lowly .227/.363/.382 with 24 doubles, two triples, 11 homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in 14 total attempts). As measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production last season topped the league average mark by a surprising 13% — thanks in large part due to his bloated walk rate (17.1%) and thump.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 18-year-old hitters posted a 108 to 118 wRC+ mark with a strikeout rate between 20% to 22% in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Gleyber Torres, Wendell Rijo, Jeisson Rosario, and – of course – Carter Jensen.
The problem with viewing Jensen’s overall production (113 wRC+) just in terms of Weighted Runs Created Plus is that it hides the fact that he actually didn’t really hit that well and a lot of his production came from his swollen walk rates. BUT…on the other hand, Jensen made some important adjustments over the season’s final months leaving plenty of hope for a bright future. The lefty-swinging backstop batted a putrid .166/.284/.325 over his first 47 games. Beginning on June 12th through the remainder of the year – a span of 66 games – he batted .272/.417/.424 with 17 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns. If Jensen can repeat his second half, he’ll be one of the ten best catching prospects in the game within a year. A lot of risk here, though.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate toHigh
MLB ETA: 2025
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5. Maikel Garcia, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: One of the more under-the-radar prospects in the entire Kansas City farm system. Garcia, a cousin of former Royal Alcides Escobar, struggled through his first two seasons in pro ball as he barely hit his weight in the Dominican Summer League in 2017 and during his stateside debut the following year. But the 6-foot, 145-pound infielder quietly pieced together a solid showing in the old Appalachian League in 2019 as he batted .286/.353/.373 with 13 extra-base hits in 55 games. After minor league ball returned from its COVID-induced hiatus, Garcia continued to hit as he moved through Low-A and later on into High-A in 2021. He finished the season with an aggregate .291/.380/.405 slash line with 21 doubles, seven triples, four homeruns, and 35 stolen bases (in 41 total attempts). Last season Garcia continued his blitz through the system as he appeared in 78 games with Northwest Arkansas, another 40 in Omaha, and he squeezed in nine games with the parent company. The 6-foot, 145-pound shortstop slugged .285/.359/.427 with career bests in doubles (34), homeruns (11), and stolen bases (39) during his minor league tenure. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 6%. Garcia went 7-for-22 during his big league debut as well.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been three 22-year-old hitters that posted a 100 to 110 wRC+ with a 10% to 12% walk rate and a 14% to 18% strikeout rate in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Tucker Barnhart, David Cooper, and – of course – Maikel Garcia.
Garcia falls into the fringy starting caliber tier of shortstop prospects. Above-average hit tool, below-average power, above-average speed, and a solid glove at a premium infield position. Scouting reports tend to favor Garcia’s defensive abilities, but he’s typically graded out as average-ish. He has the potential to be a .275/.330/.400 hitter. He could be a key cog, a mainstay on rebuilding team – like the Royals. But the organization likely won’t be hard-pressed to find a suitable replacement.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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6. Tyler Gentry, LF / RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The Royals, under the captainship of Dayton Moore, put an emphasis on pitching, termed the “currency of baseball.” So it’s not surprising that the club used only two of their six picks in the COVID-limited 2020 draft on hitters. They selected Baylor shortstop Nick Loftin with their second first round pick and then swung back around and grabbed Alabama outfielder Tyler Gentry two rounds later. Taken with the 76th overall pick that summer, Gentry spent his freshman season at baseball hotbed Walters State Community College, hitting .379 with 32 extra-base hits in only 64 games. And the 6-foot-2, 210-pound outfielder immediately made an impact after transferring to the Tide. He slugged .310/.378/.552 in 2019, and got off to a scorching start the following year (.429/.554/.750) before COVID prematurely ended it. Gentry made his professional debut two years ago, hitting a respectable .259/.395/.449 in 44 games with Quad Cities. Last season, the former SEC masher upped the production level to a new stratosphere as he split time with Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas. He batted an aggregate .326/.422/.542 with 22 doubles, one triple, 21 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 52%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Double-A (min. 300 PA): 140 to 150 wRC+, a 19% to 21% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Jason Donald, Darnell Sweeney, and Tyler Gentry.
One of the top performing bats since entering the minor leagues two years ago, Gentry has (A) handled aggressive assignments by the club without missing a beat and (B) managed to improve his once problematic swing-and-miss rate at each stop along the way. Broad-shouldered with above-average in-game power and an average hit tool. Gentry possesses some Kole Calhoun-type offensive potential – .260/.340/.440 with 20 homeruns. The former centerfielder will add some value on the defensive side of the ball, as well.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Asa Lacy, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 40 | 55 |
Background: After spending the majority of his freshman season in the Aggies’ bullpen, Lacy established himself as one of college’s preeminent hurlers in 2019 as he averaged an impressive 13.2 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings across 15 starts. Lacy, who’s always battled some command demons, seemed to have figured it out during the 2020 COVID-abbreviated season, though, as he posted an immaculate 46-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.0 innings of work. The Royals, an organization driven by acquiring young pitching, saw enough of the 6-foot-4, 215-pound southpaw and decided he was worthy of the fourth overall pick that summer, drafting him ahead of several notable collegiate arms like: Emerson Hancock, Reid Detmers, and Garrett Crochet. But almost immediately things seemed to be off with the enigmatic left-hander. During his debut showing the former Texas A&M ace lost all feel for the strike zone and his season prematurely ended in late July courtesy of a barking left shoulder. He would finish his disappointment campaign with 79 strikeouts and a whopping 41 walks in only 52.0 innings of work. Kansas City sent him to the Arizona Fall League in hopes of getting him some additional innings, but the results were largely the same: 7.2 IP, 15, and 6 walks. With a renewal of hope eternal at the start of every season, Lacy’s 2022 season was actually worse than the year before. Just two starts into the time with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the big lefty hit the disabled list for two months thanks to a back issue. He would make four – largely – disastrous outings in the Complex League before being shuffled back up to Double-A in mid-July. The front office would limit his outings to two or fewer innings, but it didn’t matter. He was a train wreck. Lacy finished his sophomore season in Double-A with more walks (25) than innings pitched (20). Not to mention an 11.25 ERA.
Scouting Report: The year actually started off a decent footing, at least in terms of Lacy’s previous strike-throwing issues. He walked “only” five hitters across 9.2 innings. But after he hit the disabled list all hell broke loose for the former first rounder. Lacy’s command – if you’re being generous – is a 20 on the 20-80 scouting scale. The fastball command is particularly alarming. He’s consistently missing to away to the first base side of the plate and any inside offerings barely cross the halfway point on the plate. Meaning: there’s some serious mechanical flaws going on that’s inhibiting him from working the other way of the dish. Plus fastball sitting in the 94- to 97-mph range. Plus mid- to upper-80s slider. Plus changeup. He was showing a plus curveball in previous years, but seems to have scrapped the bender last year. It’s still an elite arsenal, which is why I’m not ready to jump off the Lacy Bandwagon, but the organization is clearly doing him no favors. I’d love to what he could do in Tampa or Cleveland or Los Angeles or Seattle.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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8. Ben Kudrna, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 45/50 | 50 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Part of the club’s plan in selecting prep lefty Frank Mozzicato with the seventh overall pick was to spread the significant savings around – or in a best case scenario, to another highly touted prospect that slipped during the draft. The club ended up saving $1,884,900 with the Mozzicato signing and turned around and signed Ben Kudrna to a deal that went $1,267,700 beyond the recommended slot value. Kudrna, who was one of two local boys snagged by the Royals that year, made his debut with the Columbia Fireflies last summer. Making 17 starts for the club’s Low-A affiliate, the 6-foot-3, 175-pound righty tossed 72.1 innings while averaging 7.6 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 3.48 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and a 5.02 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been ten 19-year-old hurlers that posted an 18.5% to 20.5% strikeout percentage with a 9.5% to 11.5% walk percentage in any Low-A league (min. 70 IP): Max Fried, Zach Davis, Genesis Cabrera, Junior Fernandez, Reese Olson, Ricardo Sanchez, Carlos Perez, Robinson Ortiz, Zach Phillips, and – of course – Ben Kudrna.
Being a local kid, the Royals had plenty of looks on the teenage right-hander over the years. Heading into the draft, Kudrna was sporting a fastball, slider, changeup mix. But he’s added a fringy curveball during the offseason. The fastball didn’t look as lively, though he generally commands it well. His slider is average, but he seems to prefer the newer breaking ball. And his changeup is – arguably – his best offering. He’s athletic enough and lives around the zone enough to project his command as average in the coming years.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Nick Loftin, IF / OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The Royals opened up their 2020, COVID-limited draft class by selecting a pair of notable collegiate players – Asa Lacy, who was taken with the fourth overall pick, and Nick Loftin, who was chosen 28 picks later. A consistent star at Baylor University during his three-year tenure, Loftin left the Big 12 school as a .311/.370/.479 hitter in 122 games, belting out 34 doubles, five triples, and 14 stolen bases during that time. After signing with Kansas City for an even $3 million, the 6-foot-1, 180-pound infielder / outfielder turned in a quietly solid debut with Quad Cities two years ago as he batted .289/.374/.464 with 22 doubles, five triples, 10 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases (in only 13 total attempts). Last season the front office sent the Texas-born first rounder into the fires of Double-A, and he came out a little singed but ultimately passed the minors’ most important test. He hit a league average .270/.354/.421 in 90 games with Northwest Arkansas. The front office brass bounced Loftin up to Omaha in early August for the remainder of the season. Loftin finished his sophomore professional season with an aggregate .254/.333/.403 with career bests in doubles (24), homeruns (17), and stolen bases (29). His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 9% below the league average mark – thanks to his struggles in Triple-A.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been seven 23-year-old hitters that met the following criteria in a season in Double-A (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, 11% to 15% strikeout rate, and a 9% to 12% walk rate. Those seven hitters: Rafael Ortega, Brad Emaus, Mike Baxter, Jamie Hoffman, Evan Frey, Stephen Alemais, and – of course – Nick Loftin.
For the first time in his career, Loftin struggled with contact issues – at least for him – during his 38-game tenure in Triple-A, so it’s not surprising that his numbers tanked. Kansas City continues to bounce him around the diamond, as well as having him spend time at second and third bases, shortstop and – for the first time – he played left and center fields. He still profiles as a low end starting option, but his versatility, contact skills, and speed are best suited for a super-sub role which he already seemed destined for. He’s going to be a .260/.330/.400 hitter at the game’s pinnacle level, running into enough fat fastballs to slug eight- to 10-homeruns.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 65 | 50 | 35/45 | 45 |
Background: The Royals’ selection of the East Catholic High School left-hander has to be near the top for biggest draft surprises – certainly in recent memory, and maybe of all time. Not entirely an unknown commodity heading into the 2021 draft, but definitely not one that was supposed to hear his name called at the opening of the first round. The Royals, though, fell in love with the lanky left-hander’s curveball and snagged him with the eighth overall pick that summer, signing him to a well below-slot deal worth $3,547,500 – bonus money equivalent to somewhere around the 16th or 17th slot. Mozzicato rocketed up the organization’s draft chart after a spectacular senior season as he averaged nearly 22 punch outs per nine innings. The 6-foot-3, 175-pound southpaw would make his highly anticipated debut with the Columbia Fireflies last season. He would make 19 starts with the organization’s Low-A affiliate, throwing 69.0innings with 89 strikeouts and 51 walks. He finished the year with a 4.30 ERA, a 4.74 FIP, and a 4.36 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been ten 19-year-old hurlers that met the following criteria in any Low-A league (min. 60 IP): 28% to 30% strikeouts percentage with a walk percentage north of 14%. Those 10 hurlers: Ken Giles, Hector Santiago, Aiden McIntyre, Andrew Lee, R.J. Freure, Tony Locey, Carlos Jimenez, Deylen Miley, Ryan Cardona, and – of course – Frank Mozzicato, the surprise early first round pick.
Spinning a plus curveball is an inherent ability. It can’t be taught. You can either do it, or you can’t. And Frank Mozzicato can. Beyond that ability, though, he remains raw, a work in progress. His fastball, an average offering, was sitting in the upper 80s / low 90s during a late season start. His changeup, which he’s surprisingly reliant upon, is a solid average pitch. Mozzicato shows an impressive willingness to change speeds, but he seems to reserve his best offering – that gorgeous deuce – only to put hitters away when he’s ahead in the count with two strikes. It’s imperative for Mozzicato and his future big league aspirations, that he can consistently throw the bender for strikes – when he’s ahead and behind in the count. 35-grade command that likely creeps into 45-grade territory. Kansas City left themselves open for a lot of criticism when they selected the prep southpaw – especially with the likes of Benny Montgomery, Brady House, Harry Ford, and Andrew Painter still on the board. And right now, Mozzicato’s done nothing to dispel that criticism.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
