Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Hunter Brown, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 65 | 60 | N/A | 45 | 60 |
Background: As difficult as it may be for some to admit, but the Astros are nearing the tail end of their incredibly dominant, drama filled dynasty run – unless the front office somehow outmaneuvers the rest of baseball. For years the farm system was a lifeline to the big league club which continued to breathe life into their run of six-straight American League Championship appearances and two World Series crowns. But that pipeline of youth is going to slow to a drip in the coming the years. The Houston Astros have gotten every ounce of talent that it could ring out of the system – though there are a few standouts that will likely make a lasting impact in the coming years. Like Hunter Brown. A fifth round pick out of Wayne State University, home to veteran reliever Anthony Bass, Brown rocketed through the Astros’ farm system with very few speedbumps. The former Warriors ace made a brief 12-game, 23.2-inning debut with Tri-City in 2019. And once minor league baseball returned from its COVID-imposed break, Brown jumped straight into Double-A and closed out the year with 11 appearances in Triple-A. The 6-foot-2, 212-pound wickedly talented right-hander finished his first full season with 100.1 innings of work, striking out 131 and walking 50 to go along with an aggregate 4.04 ERA. Last season the hard-throwing hurler was able to hone in on the strike zone for the first extended period since high school during his time with Sugar Land. He averaged 11.4 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with a sparkling 2.55 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, and a 3.59 xFIP. Houston called up their top prospect in early September for the stretch run. And he was magnificent. He posted a 22-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while surrendering only a pair of earned runs in 20.1 innings.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage of at least 30% with a walk percentage been 8% and 11% in a season in Triple-A (min. 75 IP): Tyler Glasnow and Hunter Brown.
Two pitches into each outing and it is crystal clear that Brown’s arsenal belongs near the top – or atop – a contender’s rotation. It’s filthy. It’s deep. Often times it almost looks unfair for those unfortunate souls that dig in against him. Plus fastball sitting in the mid-90s with late, explosive action – particularly up in the zone. A hard, late tilting low-90s slider with vertical movement. It’s a second plus offering, a true swing-and-miss pitch. His curveball can be hellacious, a hammer like it was gifted from Thor. At its best, it’s a third plus offering. But it’s inconsistent and he’ll struggle finishing it at times. He’ll also mix in a rare – very rare – split finger fastball, utilizing it as a changeup (note: I’ve never seen it across multiple seasons, but Baseball Savant showed that he threw it just seven times during his debut with Houston). Brown’s fastball command up-ticked last season. Now, though, it’s all about finding a spot in the Astros’ crowded rotation.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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2. Drew Gilbert, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: A legend coming out of Stillwater High School, the 5-foot-9, 185-pound center fielder / pitching ace did a little bit of everything for the Ponies – including leading them to the Minnesota state title as a junior. During that epic championship performance, the little left-hander dazzled Minnetonka for seven shutout innings, racking up 15 punch outs. Gilbert was practically unhittable during his senior campaign as well, surrendering one earned run in 49 innings to go along with 97 strikeouts. He also batted a scorching .370 with 16 RBIs and eight stolen bases. After a little flirtation from the Red Sox in the late rounds, the Minnesota-born prospect packed his bags and headed to the land of the Volunteers – where he would become a key cog in one of the best collegiate teams in history. As a two-way player his first two seasons, Gilbert’s performance was filled with highs and lows: he battled control / command issues as a part-time reliever and hit a mediocre .274/.341/.437 as a center fielder during his sophomore season. Last season, though, the pint-sized dynamo focused solely on hitting. And he put together a record performance. In 58 games for the SEC Conference powerhouse, Gilbert slugged .362/.455/.673 with career highs in doubles (21), triples (four), homeruns (11), and RBIs (70). He also swiped four bags (in six attempts). Houston snagged him in the opening round, 28th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2,497,500. He appeared in just 10 games between the Complex League and Low-A, hitting .313/.405/.531 with three extra-base hits.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only three SEC hitters have batted at least .360/.450/.650 in a season (min. 225 PA): Brent Rooker, Sonny DiChiara, and – of course – Drew Gilbert.
So let’s expand that a bit. Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only two Division hitters batted at least .360/.450/.650 with a strikeout and walk rate between 12% and 14% in a season (min. 225 PA): Hunter Dozier and – of course – Drew Gilbert.
Likely the strongest arm among any non-pitching prospect coming out of the collegiate class, Gilbert’s fastball in high school reached upwards of 97 mph. Cut from a similar cloth as consensus Top 20 big league prospect Corbin Carroll, Gilbert packs a wallop in a deceivingly strong frame. He’s pure muscle and athleticism. Above-average hit tool, lightning quick bat, and does not get cheated. Above-average hit tool, good patience, 50-grade power with maybe a little more in the tank, and above-average speed. Gilbert could be the complete package. Gritty. Gamer.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Yainer Diaz, C / 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 30 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The Cleveland Guardians own a nearly spotless track record when it comes to trading. Sure, the occasional stinker of a deal slips through the organization’s fingers, but – by and large – their unheralded front office is incredibly astute when it comes to evaluating their own talent. Yainer Diaz may prove to be one of the deals that haunt the franchise. Acquired along with the “Spin Doctor” Phil Maton for offensive deficient defensive wizard Myles Straw near the trade deadline two years ago, Diaz rocketed up prospect charts with his phenomenal showing between both organizations that season. He batted an aggregate .324/.362/.527 as he spent time between Low-A and High-A. And last season the young Dominican backstop was even better. Splitting time between Corpus Christi and Sugar Land, the 6-foot, 195-pound catcher / part-time first baseman mashed .306/.356/.542 with 22 doubles, four triples, 25 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Diaz’s overall production topped the league average threshold by an impressive 21%.
Scouting Report: Diaz answered the most important question facing him last season – how will he handle more advanced pitching. The answer: with aplomb. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Double-A (min. 250 PA): 115 to 125 wRC+, 14% to 16% strikeout rate and a 7% to 9% walk rate. Those five hitters: A.J. Pollock, Jake Goebbert, Miguel Negron, Jared James, and – of course – former Guardians farmhand Yainer Diaz.
Houston continued the trend of bouncing Diaz between catcher and first base last season in an effort to keep his potentially potent bat in the lineup. High contact approach, despite his blossoming power. He’s not going to ever be mistaken for Mike Hargrove or Kevin Youkilis at the plate. But there’s a solid chance he develops into a .280/.335/.430-type hitter.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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4. Jaime Melendez, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 30/40 | 55 |
Background: Much of the talk surrounding electric sub-21-year-old arms in Double-A last season was centered on Miami’s burgeoning ace Eury Perez, 19, and San Francisco’s Kyle Harrison, 20. And deservedly so. But lost in the discussion was Houston’s talented – yet diminutive – right-hander Jaime Melendez. Signed out of Puebla, Mexico for a $195,000 in 2019, the 5-foot-8, 190-pound youngster rocketed through three levels during his first full season in pro ball two years later. Melendez shredded the Low-A East competition for six appearances, continued to miss a promising number of bats during his 11-game cameo with Asheville, and settled in nicely for three brief outings with Corpus Christi. Last season the now-20-year-old righty spent the entirety of the year with Corpus Christi, throwing a career high 73.2 innings of work, averaging 12.95 strikeouts and a whopping 6.2 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 5.01 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and a 4.25 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been 35 hurlers that tossed at least 70 innings in Double-A during their age-20 season. Melendez’s strikeout rate, 12.95 K/9, and his strikeout percentage, 32.52%, rank as the second best total.
Now the bad news…
- His walk rate, 6.23 BB/9, and walk percentage, 15.64%, are the worst among the aforementioned group.
Firing from a high, over the top release, Melendez’s low 90s fastball is particularly effective in the upper half the zone, where he typically lives. His 12-6 curveball is especially effective with his high-spin heater. The young right-hander also owns an above-average changeup as well. There are a lot of parallels with Cristian Javier – though Melendez’s command is a full grade worse than the young Astros starter.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Joe Perez, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50 | 35 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: A striking number of the Astros’ 2017 draft class have already accrued big league time – 12 of the club’s 42 picks have debuted in the bigs. But it’s a class light on stardom or production. Chas McCormick and Josh Rojas, both hovering in the 3.5 WAR range, top the list. Beyond that there’s Jake Meyer (1.7) and a bunch of disappointing stat lines. Perez, the club’s second pick that year, has technically spent time in the big leagues, earning just one at bat. But his struggles to stay on the field, yet again, have continued to chew into valuable development time. The 53rd overall pick six years ago, Perez, who signed for a hefty $1.6 million, underwent Tommy John right around draft time. And he would make his abbreviated debut in the Gulf Coast League the following year, appearing in just four games in the stateside rookie league. The former two-way prep star was abysmal the following season, 2019, hitting an atrocious .188/.246/.365 in 50 games with Tri-City. But things seemed to click for the former Bonus Baby the in 2021 as he slugged .291/.354/.495 in 106 games between Fayetteville, Asheville, and Corpus Christi. Last season, though, Perez’s production took a noticeable step back – particularly in the power department. Hampered by an oblique injury, the Archbishop McCarthy High School product hit .265/.335/.397 in 64 games in his return to Corpus Christi. But he was scorching hot during his eight game cameo in Triple-A, going 14-for-29 with a double and a dinger.
Scouting Report: I’ve been one of Perez’s biggest supporters throughout the years, through the good and bad production lines. So let’s continue to take a deep dive into his production. His bat was frigid during the month of April, hitting just .196/.281/.275 over his first 13 games. Then he hit the disabled list for nearly two full months. Once he returned, Perez batted .282/.348/.427 over his remaining 51 games in Double-A and .306/.378/.451 throughout the rest of the year. There’s average power, average patience, and the hit tool has a chance to be above-average. I still think there’s a chance to be a .270/.340/.430-type hitter (the power may not uptick as I once expected). Perez is a good buy low option, both in terms of future big league employment as well as those that speculate on baseball cards.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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6. Korey Lee, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 45 | 35 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
Background: The franchise’s track record of selecting backstops in the first round is spotty at best. Just two of their 10 selections have turned into meaningful big leaguers (Craig Biggio and Jason Castro) while the others have generally been a disappointment. But the jury’s still out on their latest first round catching expenditure. Taken with the 32nd overall pick out of the University of California, Berkley four years ago, Lee left the Golden Bears after a tremendous junior campaign when he slugged a robust .337/.416/.619 with 12 doubles and 15 homeruns. And after signing with the organization quickly, Lee squeezed in a full season of work with Tri-City during his debut, hitting .268/.359/.371 in 64 games of work. Once minor league baseball returned from their COVID-induced layoff, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound catcher got off to a roaring start in High-A, moved quickly through Double-A, and settled in at Triple-A for the final week-plus of the year. He finished the season with an aggregate .277/.340/.438 slash line. And it seemed that Lee was positioning himself for a prime spot on the club’s big league roster entering 2022. But his bat was as cold as an Ohio April to begin the year and dragged down his overall production. He hit .238/.307/.483 with 20 doubles, two triples, 25 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases in 104 games with Sugar Land. He spent the month of July in the Astros’ lineup, hitting .160/.192/.240 in limited action.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, just three hitters met the following criteria in Triple-A (min. 350 PA): 85 to 95 wRC+ with a strikeout rate between 26% and 30%. Those three hitters: Anthony Alford, a consensus Top 100 prospect several times early in his career; Willy Garcia, and – of course – Korey Lee.
Lee was particularly chilly during the first two months of the minor league season as he batted .203/.256/.387 over his first 40 games. But he caught fire in June (.271/.340/.482) and batted a rock solid .256/.335/.546 over the remainder of his minor league season. The former Golden Bear started selling out for more power in 2022, leading to a precipitous rise in his K-rate. Lee’s tracking like a defensive specialist with low batting average, average power, and near Gold Glove defense. In terms of big league production, think .240/.300/.430.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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7. Ryan Clifford, 1B / LF / RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 40/60 | 35/30 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: It’s not very often that an 11th round draft pick, fresh from high school will crack a club’s Top 20 prospect list – let alone the defending World Champs. But Clifford isn’t exactly the prototypical 11th round pick either. A member of Team USA squads since his preteen days, Clifford was a dominant standout during his time with Crossroads FLEX High School. The first baseman / corner outfielder mashed his way into a commitment with collegiate – and SEC – powerhouse Vanderbilt University. But the Astros were able to sway the hulking slugger away from the prime time lights of the SEC for pro ball with a hefty $1,256,530 deal. The North Carolina native began his career slowly, hitting .222/.440/.389 during his brief stint in the Complex Leagues, before finding his footing with Fayetteville. Clifford would finish the year with an aggregate .247/.426/.390 slash line with five doubles, two homeruns, and pair of stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by an impressive 39%.
Scouting Report: Big, hulking middle-of-the-lineup thumper, Clifford, simply, does not get cheated. The swing is a bit long. And there’s a solid chance he turns into a dead pull hitter. But it’s easy to see why he commanded such a large bonus. He could develop into a 50-grade bat, 60-grade power, and be an OBP monster. He’s raw, though, and he’s going to need time to figure it out.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025
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8. Jacob Melton, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Here’s a little tidbit to consider: South Medford High School has had three former players graduate into professional baseball – Jeff Barry, Steve Bechler, and Andy Larkin. The interesting part: all three have spent some time in the big leagues. Enter: Jacob Melton, a member of the Class of 2018 from the Oregon-based school. Melton shredded the competition during his senior year with the Panthers, batting a scorching .513 with eight dingers and a whopping 33 stolen bases. The dynamic center fielder spent his first season in college with JuCo Linn-Benton – which provided little in terms of competition. In 42 games with the Roadrunners, Melton slugged .365/.436/.617 with 14 doubles, seven triples, and three homeruns. The native Oregonian would transfer to Pac-12 powerhouse Oregon State – though he barely saw the field in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Handed the starting gig after the 2021 season began, Melton slashed a scorching .404/.466/.697 with five doubles, three triples, six homeruns, and eight stolen bases before season-ending shoulder surgery knocked him out in April. Finally healthy, he made the best of his first full season of Division I action in 2022. Playing in a career best 63 games, the 6-foot-3, 208-pound tools-laden center fielder slugged .360/.424/.671 with 22 doubles, four triples, and 17 homeruns. He also swiped 21 bags in 22 total attempts. For his career at OSU, Melton stolen 29 bases and was caught just twice. Houston selected him in the second round, 64th overall, and signed him a deal worth $1 million. Melton appeared in 23 games between the Complex League and Fayetteville, hitting an aggregate .261/.353/.466 with 10 extra-base hits and five stolen bases (in seven total attempts).
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only three Pac-12 hitters batted at least .350/.415/.660 in a season (min. 275 PA): Spencer Torkelson, Jacob Berry, and – of course – Jacob Melton. Melton, by the way, owns the lowest walk rate among the trio, at 8.8%. Torkelson’s was 14.2% and Berry tallied an 11.1%.
Melton did everything well during his brief time on the field for Oregon State: he hit for average and power, ran well and efficiently, and played an up-the-middle position well. The lone knock on the dynamic OSU Beaver: he’s completed four years of college, but he’s just 21-years-old thanks to a later birthday. Dead pull-hitter with phenomenal bat speed. Surprisingly patient, particularly on low offspeed pitches, given his average-ish walk rate. Sees a lot of pitches. Melton needs to improve his ability to use the entire field. Low end starting material who likely demolishes the low levels of the minor leagues.”
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Justin Dirden, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The 2020 draft class provided an abundance of opportunity for savvy organizations, allowing clubs to sign an unlimited amount of undrafted prospects for the rather paltry sum of $20,000. The five-round limited draft greatly affected fifth year seniors – like Justin Dirden. A product of SE Missouri State courtesy of Jefferson Junior College, which in turn was courtesy of East Carolina. Dirden, a Missouri native, was an absolute force to be reckoned with during his first season with the Redhawks, mashing a Ruthian .340/.437/.665 with 19 doubles, one triple, 16 homeruns, and nine stolen bases in only 57 games. And his 2020 season started off even better. He slugged an otherworldly .414/.471/.900 with three doubles, two triples, and nine homeruns in only 17 games. He continued to produce at well above-average levels since joining Houston’s system as well, hitting .274/.397/.537 in 82 games between Fayettevlile and Asheville two years ago. And last season was much the same. In 124 games between Corpus Christi and Sugar Land, the 6-foot-3, 209-pound outfielder mashed .302/.384/.558 with 40 doubles, five triples, 24 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by an impressive 35%. Not bad for an undrafted, fifth year senior.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 24-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ north of 150 with a strikeout rate between 21% and 25% in Double-A (min. 350 PA): Russ Canzler, Ryan Goleski, Fernando Perez, Corey Brown, Taylor Jones, and Justin Dirden.
Evan Gattis is kind of the unofficial poster boy for older, surging power bats. And while there are several similarities between the duo, Dirden’s strikeout rate is leaps and bounds worse than Gattis’ during his minor league stint. Miscast as a centerfield, though he’ll provide positive value at either corner outfield spot, Dirden is fairly toolsy, showing solid speed, a 50-grade bat, above-average power, and decent patience at the plate. On a rebuilding team, Dirden would likely be handed a spot in the lower third of a lineup to see what he can do. On the Astros, well, that’s not likely to happen. There’s some lower end starting potential here. Ceiling: .250/.310/.450.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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10. Miguel Ullola, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55/60 | 60 | N/A | 30/40 | 55 |
Background: Tell me if you’ve heard this story before: Houston took a gamble on an older international prospect and said prospect is showing serious potential. Enter: Miguel Ullola. A native of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, the Astros signed the wiry right-hander to a deal worth $75,000 in mid-January two years ago. The 6-foot-1, 184-pound hurler made just 10 appearances between the club’s Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League affiliates a few months later, throwing just 24.1 innings with 38 punch outs and 21 free passes to go along with a 4.07 ERA. Last season Houston sent the hard-throwing youngster to Fayetteville. And Ullola showcased an impressive ability to miss bats as well as the strike zone. He averaged a staggering 15.0 strikeouts and a whopping 6.9 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a – shocking – 3.25 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and a 3.92 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 20-year-old hurlers have posted a strikeout percentage north of 33% in any Low-A league (min. 70 IP): Matt Moore, Seth Corry, Pedro Avila, Max Lazar, Juan Carela, and – of course – Miguel Ullola.
Now the fun starts…
- #1.Of those six hurlers, only one has posted a strikeout percentage of at least 34.5% – Miguel Ullola.
- #2. Here’s the list of hurlers at any age, in any level, that posted a strikeout rate of at least 38% in any year since 2006: Grayson Rodriguez (AA), Cristian Javier (AA), MacKenzie Gore (A+), Tyler Glasnow (AAA), Ryan Murphy (A), Joe Boyle (A+), Dahian Santos (A), Anthony Slama (A+), Darwin De Leon (R), Will Klein (A+), and Miguel Ullola (A)
- #3. Ullola struck out an incredible 38.3% of the hitters he faced.
There’s the potential for an elite arsenal with three plus offerings: a mid-90s, explosive, riding fastball; a hellacious curveball, and a wickedly darting slider. The problem, of course, is whether Ullola can find the strike zone with any type of consistency. He’s still only entering his age-21 season and barely has a year-and-a-half of pro ball under his belt. He could have the highest ceiling of any arm in the system if everything clicks.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
