Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Jackson Jobe, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 70 | 60 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: At one point in the not so distant past, it seemed like the Tigers had one priority in the opening round of the July draft – right-handed pitchers. From 2013 through 2018, the club owned eight first round selections. Dave Dombrowski and his successor, Al Avila, used six of those picks on righties – Jonathon Crawford, Corey Knebel, Beau Burrows, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Casey Mize. The next two drafts, however, the front office went in a completely different direction, snagging toolsy prep centerfielder Riley Greene and college masher Spencer Torkelson in the first rounds. But some habits prove to be too hard to quit – like taking right-handed hurlers. So the franchise doubled in the opening round in 2021, selecting Jackson Jobe, who was touted as a potential 1 / 1 guy heading into the draft, and University of Texas fireballer Ty Madden. A product of Heritage Hall School, Jobe would eventually agree to a massive $6.9 million deal with the Tigers after being picked with the third overall pick. Detroit held the teenage phenom out for the remainder of the year. Last season, though, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound righty made the most of his first crack at professional ball. Beginning his pro career with the Lakeland Flying Tigers, Jobe made 18 starts with the club’s Florida State League affiliate, posting a 71-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 61.2 innings of work. The front office would bump the farm system’s top hurler up to the Midwest League in late August for another three contests. Jobe would finish the year with 77.1 innings of work, averaging 9.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been five hurlers that met the following criteria during their age-19 season in Low-A (min. 60 IP): 25.5% to 27.5% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage. Those five hurlers: Michael Kopech, Trevor Cahill, Sam Hentges, Randall Delgado, and – of course – Jackson Jobe.
There are very few hurlers – at any age – in the minor leagues that can match Jobe’s arsenal or his spin rate. During his last start of the year the hard-throwing right-hander was pumping 95- to 97-mph with relative ease. His curveball is – firmly – an above-average offering. His slider is like a gift from Steve Carlton or Bob Gibson. And his changeup – which ranks as his third best option – is among the best in the minor leagues. Jobe, like a lot of young fireballers, lacks a strong feel for the strike zone, but shows the athleticism and flexibility that allows it to project to average. If the command can creep up into above-average territory, the sky’s the limit for the former third overall pick.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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2. Colt Keith, 2B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: In what quickly became known as the Spencer Torkelson draft, the front office quietly put together a stout class – despite COVID limiting the draft to just five rounds. Detroit added backstop Dillon Dingler in the second round and lefty-swinging infielder Colt Keith with their final selection. Taken with the 132nd overall pick, Keith wouldn’t make his professional debut until the following season. And he quickly made up for lost time. Splitting time between Lakeland and West Michigan – as well as a couple brief rehab stints in the Complex League – the Biloxi High School product hit an aggregate .286/.396/.393 with eight doubles, five triples, two homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases in only 65 games of work. Last season, in an injury-marred campaign that limited him to just 48 games, Keith slugged a red hot .301/.370/.544 with 14 doubles, three triples, nine homeruns, and four stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 50%. After missing the final four months of the year, Keith made his way to the Arizona Fall League with the Salt River Rafters where he – almost amazingly – slugged .344/.463/.541 in 80 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a 145 to 155 wRC+ with a strikeout rate between 19% to 22% with a walk rate between 9% and 12% in a High-A season (min. 200 PA): Anthony Alford, Clint Frazier, and – of course – Colt Keith.
Keith went from a line-driving hitter during his first pro season to a legitimate power-hitting bat – albeit one in a smallish sample size. Keith got stronger, began elevating the ball more frequently, and he was able to maintain his similar approach from at bat to at bat. Really good looking, silky smooth swing. Keith shoots the ball all over the diamond without regard. If everything clicks just right – which is a long shot – there’s some Justin Turner / Jeff McNeil upside.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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3. Jace Jung, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: It has to be difficult growing up with an older brother who (A) is a former Big 12 Freshman of the Year and (B) Freshman All-American, and (C) All-American, and (D) Team USA alumnus, and (E) the eighth the overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. Unless, of course, that person is Jace Jung, who has practically gone toe-to-toe with his older brother Josh Jung, a top prospect in the Rangers’ organization. After a solid, COVID-limited true freshman campaign in 2020, the younger Jung, who batted .264/.438/.604 for the Red Raiders, had a massive breakout during his follow up campaign for Head Coach Tim Tadlock. In 56 games for the Big 12 conference school, the lefty-swinging second / third baseman slugged .337/.462/.697 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 21 homeruns. He finished the year with a sparkling 45-to-49 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And then the awards started rolling in:
- Consensus All-American including First Team Honors by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper, the NCBWA, Perfect Game, and the College Baseball Foundation; Big 12 Player of the Year; Unanimous All-Big 12 First Team
The younger Jung also earned a spot on Team USA’s roster, the first Red Raider to do so since his older brother. He would bat a solid .267/.371/.400 for the national squad in 11 games, belting out a double and a dinger. The Texas Tech star maintained status quo during his phenomenal 2022 season as well. In a career best 61 games, Jung batted a scorching .335/.481/.612 with a career best 18 doubles, one triple, and 14 homeruns. He also went a perfect 5-for-5 in the stolen base department as well. Like the previous year, Jung walked more times than he whiffed (59 to 42). Detroit selected the second / third baseman with the 12th overall pick last July, handing him to a deal worth $4,590,300. After signing, Jung appeared in 30 games in High-A with West Michigan, batting .232/.373/.333 with six doubles, one triple, and a dinger. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 6% better than the league average mark.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write up on the 12th overall pick:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, there are only seven instances in which a Big 12 hitter met the following criteria in a season (min. 250 PA): bat at least .300/.450/.600 with more walks than strikeouts: Ivan Melendez (Texas, 2022), Grant Little (Texas Tech, 2018), Jaxx Groshans (Kansas, 2019), Josh Jung (Texas Tech, 2018 and 2019), and Jace Jung (2021 and 2022).
Expanding it out a bit, consider the following:
- Since 2011, only six players met the aforementioned criteria in two separate seasons for any conference in Division 1 baseball: Kyle Schwarber, Adley Rutschman, D.J. Peterson, Tyler Locklear, Josh Jung, and – of course – Jace Jung. For those counting at home Schwarber was the 4th overall pick in 2014; Rutschman was the top pick in 2019; Peterson was the 12th pick in 2013; Locklear, a projected early round pick in 2022; Josh Jung, the 8th overall pick in 2019; and – of course – Jace Jung.
Starting from an abnormal, almost Kevin Youkilis / Cal Ripken Jr.-type hand setup, Jung holds his hands high and lets the bat almost rest at a 45-degree drop away from him. And it creates an odd approach to the zone as well, never really straightening the bat head at any point. It’s a peculiar swing, but it’s short and lightning quick. Jung has above-average power potential, a little bit of footspeed, and he’s had no trouble with better college-age competition. The ceiling is higher if he can stick to second base. Ben Zobrist-type offensive performer.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B / LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/60 | 30 | 60 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: As the draft approaches every season, the inevitable stories pop up on how a player bet on himself by forgoing an earlier opportunity to play pro ball and is projected to be taken significantly higher. Ace Gerrit Cole famously bypassed the Yankees’ offer as the 28th overall pick coming out of high school in 2008 and went #1 overall three years later. Jack Leiter’s strong commitment to Vanderbilt forced teams away from taking him early in the first round as well. The stories are abundant. But not quite like Justyn-Henry Malloy. Highly touted coming out of St. Joseph Regional High School, Malloy attended – arguably – the top baseball program in the entire country: Vanderbilt University. Except he didn’t see the field in 2019. And he didn’t see the field again in 2020, though it’s hard to say just how much COVID impacted that. But either way, though, through two seasons in college he made only 61 trips to the plate and he looked terrible during that time as well. So he transferred to Georgia Tech, morphed into a dominant force by mashing .308/.436/.558, and was drafted by the Braves in the sixth round two years ago. The part-time third baseman / corner outfielder continued to hit during his extended debut in Low-A, batting .271/.388/.434. And he continued to hit – again, throughout the entirety of 2022. Spending time at High-A, Double-A, and (briefly) Triple-A, the 6-foot-2, 212-pound prospec
t slugged .289/.408/.454 with 28 doubles, 17 homeruns, and five stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 36%. Detroit acquired the burgeoning big leaguer, as well as minor league veteran reliever Jake Higginbotham, for All-Star reliever Joe Jimenez.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season (min. 200 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, at least a 14% walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 23% to 27%. Those four hitters: Brett Jackson, Isan Diaz, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and – of course – Justyn-Henry Malloy.
Malloy takes a saber-slanted approach at the plate, walking at an elite clip in his minor league career, mashing mammoth homeruns, and – of course – there’s a bit of swing-and-miss to his game as well (he fanned in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in Double-A last season). But here’s the interesting tidbit: when he swings, he doesn’t miss frequently. Despite a K-rate north of 25% in Double-A, he had a swinging strike percentage of just 9.7%. Plus power potential that’s just beginning to show up in games. And the hit tool may develop into an above-average weapon in the coming years. There’s a lot to like on Malloy. And he’s just beginning to scratch the surface of his talent. And if Malloy’s taught us anything, never – ever – bet against him.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Ty Madden, RHP
| FB | CB | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Heading into the 2021 draft there were some whispers that Ty Madden, the Texas-born right-hander missing plenty of bats with Longhorns, might be a potential Top 10 selection. He was – and is – the prototypical Detroit Tigers pitching prospect – big, right-handed, hard-throwing – and likely would have only caused a few ripples in the media if the front office used the third overall pick on the big hurler. And it seemed almost impossible that Madden, who averaged 10.8 strikeout per nine innings during his junior campaign, would be available when the ballclub from Motown came up for a second selection. But he was. And Detroit didn’t hesitate to snag him with the 32nd overall pick. Madden, who signed for $2.5 million, made his professional debut last summer, opening the year up in West Michigan, but quickly got promoted up to Double-A by early August. The former University of Texas ace finished his freshman professional season with 122.2 innings, racking up 133 strikeouts and just 38 free passes to go along with an aggregate 3.01 ERA.
Scouting Report: Madden attacks hitters with a solid four-pitch mix – fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup. But unlike a lot of pitchers equipped with a mid-90s fastball, the big right-hander relies heavily on his quality secondary offerings, particularly his plus curveball and improved upper 80s changeup. Madden continues to throw quality strikes, which wasn’t the case early in his collegiate career. A year after the draft, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound hurler still has the makings a #3-type arm. He’s just one step closer to accomplishing it.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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6. Reese Olson, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
Background: It was the kind of deal that the Brewers don’t make very often, particularly under the captainship of former GM David Stearns. But the Tigers definitely pulled one over on the Brew Crew’s savvy front office. A day before the trade deadline two years ago, Detroit sent lefty reliever – and former consensus Top 100 prospect – Daniel Norris to Milwaukee for right-hander Reese Olson. Drafted in the 13th round out of North Hall High School in 2018, Reese put together one of the best Double-A showings in 2022. After capping off his 2021 campaign with a five-game cameo in Erie, the 6-foot-1, 160-pound righty made 25 starts (and one relief appearance) with the SeaWolves, throwing a career best 119.2 innings of work, striking out an impressive 168 and walking 38. He trailed Double-A leader Kai-Wei Teng by one punch out and tied for the seventh most in the minor leagues. Olson set the SeaWolves’ single season strikeout record as well, passing Seth Etherton.
Scouting Report: Consider the following comparison:
| Season | Name | Team | Level | Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | K% | BB% | K-BB% |
| 2011 | Matt Moore | TB | AA | 22 | 102.1 | 11.52 | 2.46 | 4.68 | 32.75% | 7.00% | 25.75% |
| 2022 | Reese Olson | DET | AA | 22 | 119.2 | 12.64 | 2.86 | 4.42 | 33.07% | 7.48% | 25.59% |
That 2011 season by Moore, of course, was the one that vaulted him up as one of the top few prospects in the minor leagues – Baseball America ranked him #1, as did MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus had the big lefty listed as #2 overall. Olson arsenal’s three-pitches deep, each having at least a 55-grade. Olson’s fastball sits in the 93 – to 95-mph range. He’ll feature a plus slider that shows an equal blend of sweep and downward bite. And the young right-hander also possesses one of the best changeups in the minors as well, throwing in the 87- to 89-mph range with plenty of sink and fade. Olson showed an above-average curveball in prior years, but it looks like he may have scrapped it all together. The former late rounder Bonus Baby has battled command issues throughout the early parts of his career, but he was able to hone in on the strike zone with significantly improved command in 2022. There’s legitimate #3 / #4-type potential here. Olson’s one of the few starting pitching prospects – and potential big leaguer – that can pitch backward – despite possessing a mid-90s fastball.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Wilmer Flores, RHP
| FB | CB | SL/CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Arguably the best undrafted free agent signing following the five-round, COVID limited draft three years ago. Detroit unearthed the talented and underrated right-hander after less than a dozen innings at Arizona Western College. Since then Flores has rocketed through the low levels of the minor leagues and shot up prospect charts. The burly right-hander made a trio of brief appearances in the Complex League to begin his career in 2021, and spent the remainder of his debut dominating the Low-A Southeast League competition. Last season, the Venezuelan-born right-hander zipped through six appearances with West Michigan and continued to confound the competition at Double-A, the minors’ toughest challenge. Flores would end his sophomore campaign with 103.1 innings of work, recording a whopping 130 strikeouts against just 23 free passes. He tallied an aggregate 2.79 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage between 26% and 29% with a sub-8% walk percentage in a season in Double-A (min. 75 IP): Matt Manning, Brett Cecil, Logan Allen, and – of course – Wilmer Flores, the 2020 undrafted free agent.
Two years later and it’s hard to fathom why more teams weren’t in on Flores. The well-built right-hander features a solid four-pitch mix. He locates his fastball, which was sitting in the 93- to 95-mph range in a late season contest against Bowie, incredibly well and appears to cut it in on lefties at times as well. His best secondary pitch is a big bending, 12-6 curveball that he’ll add and subtract on, throwing it anywhere from the low 70s to 80 mph. He’ll lean heavily on his slider / cutter. There’s a little bit of a wrinkle to it, but it generated a lot of awkward swings. Reports indicate he’ll mix in below-average changeup, but I didn’t personally see one. There’s #4-type upside here thanks to his command and three solid pitches.
Ceiling: 2.5- to3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Kerry Carpenter, LF / RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 35 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Let’s play a game, OK? The practically unknown Kerry Carpenter spent the opening few months in Class AA, the most difficult challenge for a minor leaguer, at the start of 2022. Where did his overall production rank (min. 250 PA)? Fourth best. He spent the next two months playing for the Toledo Mudhens. Where did his overall production rank at that level (min. 100 PA)? Fifth. Eventually the Tigers called him up in mid-August for the remainder of the year. Where did Carpenter’s production rank among all MLB rookies (min. 100 PA)? Tenth. Needless to say, it was quite the breakout campaign for the former Virginia Tech Hokie. Taken all the way back in the 19th round in 2019, Detroit coaxed the lefty-swinging corner outfielder to sign for a paltry $125,000. Carpenter, a former JuCo transplant, ripped through the Gulf Coast League and appeared for a cup of coffee in short season ball. Then…he disappeared thanks to the lost COVID season. Detroit challenged him in 2021, sending him directly up to Double-A. And you know what? He handled himself well, batting .262/.319/.433 with 24 doubles, one triple, and 15 homeruns. The front office kept him back down in Double-A to begin last season. And he mashed. He mashed in Triple-A. And he kept on hitting in the big leagues. Carpenter slugged an aggregate .313/.380/.645 with 27 doubles, one triple, 30 homeruns, and three stolen bases in the minor leagues. And he hit .252/.310/.485 with four doubles, one triple, and six homeruns with the Tigers.
Scouting Report: A tremendous find by the Tigers’ scouting department, unearthing a gritty, potential league average starting outfielder all the way back in the draft. Carpenter has a simple setup at the plate, little movement, quiet. He unleashes an uppercut swing and doesn’t complete a normal follow though, in the traditional sense. But the power is undeniable. It’s legitimate 25- to 30-homer thump, at any level. He’s not going to walk very frequently, and there’s some swing-and-miss to his game, but the defense is passable enough in either corner outfield spot. He also doesn’t show any platoon splits either. His showing as a rookie, .252/.310/.485, seems like a reasonable baseline moving forward. Very Randal Grichuk-esque type potential.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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9. Cristian Santana, 3B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 50/55 | 50/40 | 50 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: The front office pulled out all the stops – and then some – to sign the Dominican infielder in early 2021, handing the 17-year-old a hefty $2.95 million – a club record. Detroit sent the 6-foot, 165-pound teenager to the Dominican Summer League a few months later to begin his debut, where he showed gobs of promise. In 54 games, Santana batted .269/.421/.521 with 12 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and 12 stolen bases (in 19 total attempts). Last season the front office sent the then-18-year-old straight up to the Florida State League. In 80 games with the Flying Tigers of Lakeland, Santana batted a saber-friendly .215/.379/.366 with 13 doubles, nine homeruns, and 10 stolen bases. Despite the poor Mario Mendoza-esque batting average, Santana’s overall production topped the league average mark by 23%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 18-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 118 to 128 in a season in Low-A (min. 300 PA): Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames, Gary Sanchez, Jomar Reyes, T.J. White, and Cristian Santana. Of those six players Santana’s strikeout rate, 25.9%, was only lower than Gary Sanchez (27.1%) and T.J. White (27.2%). Santana’s batting average, .215, was – by far – the worst in the group. The runner up, Sanchez, batted .256.
Santana was particularly awful during five weeks of the season, hitting .149/.289/.284 – which is to be expected given (A) his previous level of competition and (B) his age. He promptly disappeared from the Flying Tigers’ lineup and popped back up in Low-A on June 9th. From that point through the remainder of the year he batted .241/.412/.398. His production during that point? A scorching 45% better than the league average. Santana’s interesting because a lot, a lot of his value is tied to his impeccable patience at the plate (he walked in nearly 16% of his plate appearances in 2022). He already shows average power and projects to be a perennial 20-homer threat. Solid speed. His glove is underwhelming. So there’s a lot riding on his bat. The ingredients to be a superlative player are clearly in place, but they’re being swirled around like a tornado. If they land in place, watch out… He could be a sleeper pick to be a Top 100 Prospect by the end of 2023.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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10. Parker Meadows, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Let’s play a game. How many players from the second round of the 2018 draft class made it to the big leagues by the end of the 2022 season? The answer: eight. Just eight of the 35 players taken in the second round have accrued big league experience on their pro resumes. Question #2: Who are the three most valuable players from the second round (in terms of bWAR)? The answer: Ryan Jeffers (1.9 bWAR), Alek Thomas (1.5), and Nick Sandlin (1.5). The point: It takes a long time – longer than many likely understand – for even a high round pick to make their way through the minors and establish themselves as a viable big leaguer. Now let’s talk about Parker Meadows. The first selection in the second round that year, Meadows, the younger brother of Tigers outfielder Austin Meadows, looked solid during his professional debut as he hit .290/.377/.476 between brief stints in the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues. And then things went south – for quite a while. The lefty-swinging outfielder batted an abysmal .221/.296/.312 in Low-A in 2019. He followed that up with an aggregate .210/.292/.331 slash line in 2021, most of which occurred in High-A. Meadows opened last season back up in High-A, but would earn a promotion up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, just two weeks later. In 113 games with the West Michigan Whitecaps, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound prospect slugged an impressive .275/.354/.466 with 21 doubles, six triples, 16 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases (in 19 total attempts). His overall production in Double-A, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 23%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Double-A (min. 400 PA): 118 to 128 wRC+, a sub-20.0% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those four hitters: Kurt Suzuki, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Nevin, and – of course – Parker Meadows.
The tools were always in place for Meadows – speed, above-average power, solid contact rates, defense, no major platoon issues (surprisingly). Except now, though, Meadows is actually barreling up the baseball. He’s not likely going to be a star – though, again, the tools are there – but Meadows’ resurgent 2022 season all but guarantees him several looks at the big league level. There’s plenty of skepticism, but one more similar season and Meadows could be a fringy average starter.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
