Connor Phillips: One of the Better Starting Pitching Prospects You’ve Never Heard Of

“You could make the argument – and a rather convincing one – that he’s one of the better starting pitching prospects most people haven’t quite discovered.” – The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook.

By all accounts the 2020 MLB Draft was more of a crapshoot than the typical year. COVID completely wrecked the high school season and limited college teams to less than two dozen games. So it’s not surprising that (A) most teams, particularly early in the draft, slanted towards older prospects with more of a track record and (B) that there have been more busts than usual.

While the jury’s still out on Emerson Hancock, the sixth overall pick that year, the Seattle Mariners did unearth a gem in the latter part of the second round – McLennan Community College hurler Connor Phillips. And, likewise, Cincinnati did incredibly well by acquiring Phillips as the Player to be Name Later in the Jesse Winker / Eugenio Suarez swap.

Phillips, a stout 6-foot-2, 209-pound right-hander, has shredded the Double-A competition through his first eight starts in 2023. Spanning 36.1 innings of work, he’s fanned 65 hitters – which currently ranks second at the level and third among all minor leaguers – to go along with a dazzling 2.93 xFIP.

I scouted Phillips’ most recent start, a dandy of a gem against the Biloxi Shuckers, and here’s what I saw:

Phillips’ fastball / slider combo, which I praised in this year’s Handbook, continues to overwhelm hitters – even at the minors’ most challenging level.

His fastball was working consistently in the 94- to 95-mph range, particularly later in the game, but touched as high as 97 mph. The Shuckers, Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate, could not square up the plus heater as it generated a 45% Called Strike Plus Whiff rate (CSW) on 60 total offerings. (Note: Two of his 93 offerings were missed.) Perhaps the most telling statistic from the game was that just two of his 60 fastballs (including 48 strikes) were put in play.

Phillips’ slider is firm, showing late tilt that completely confounded hitters. And just like I noted in the Handbook this offseason, the former second rounder is (A) hesitant to throw his plus, low 80s curveball and (B) has basically shelved his strong changeup.

There’s still the floor of a dominant backend big league reliever with the ceiling as a very good #3. But Phillips’ command, which is a 40 (even on good days), has ways to go. And even on those days where he’s filling up the strike zone, he’s rarely hitting his spots.

Like Kansas City’s Frank Mozzicato, I think Phillips has done enough this year to push him into Top 100 Prospect status.