Cleveland Guardians: Top 10 Prospects for 2022

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Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. George Valera, OF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
45/5555/6550705560

Background: Born in Queens, New York, Valera and his family moved to the Dominican Republic during his early teenage years. A short while later Cleveland signed their eventual top prospect to a hefty $1.3 million deal. After a brief six-game debut in the Arizona Summer League in 2018, Valera looked battled through an up-and-down showing with the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in the New York-Penn League the following season. He hit .236/.354/.446 with seven doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns in 46 games as an 18-year-old. He also appeared in six games with the Lake County Captains in Low-A as well, going 2-for-23 with a triple. Last season, with the return of minor league ball from their COVID-imposed shutdown, the 5-foot-11, 185-pound outfielder burst out in a massive way. In an atypical move, at least for the normally conservative front office, the organization’s development program pushed the now-20-year-old straight up to High-A to begin the season. In 63 games he slugged .256/.430/.548 with two doubles, four triples, and 16 homeruns. Valera was bumped up to the minors’ toughest proving ground, Double-A, in late August. And he continued to rake. In 23 games with the Akron RubberDucks, the former international free agent batted .267/.340/.407. After the dust had finally settled on his breakout season, one which many were predicting, Valera hit an aggregate .260/.405/.505 with five doubles, four triples, and 19 homeruns. He also swiped 11 bags in 16 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Valera’s production topped the league average threshold by a staggering 48%.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: That loud audible crack I mentioned in [The 2018] Handbook turned out to be some phenomenal exit velocities in 2019: it averaged a whopping 91 mph with a peak of 107 mph. That’s as an 18-year-old squaring off against competition that averaged three years his senior. There’s some big time, plus power potential and well above-average patience mix in. And his strikeout rate last season in the NYPL, 27.7%, barely moves the needle in terms of concern. He was (A) 18-years-old, (B) coming off of a semi-serious injury, (C) limited to six games in rookie ball, and (D) jumped an entire level. There’s some massive, massive upside here. He’s going to be one of the biggest breakout prospects in 2020. Remember the name.

Scouting Report: Consider the following: 

  • Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in High-A with one organization (min. 250 PA): at least a 160 wRC+ total and a strikeout rate between 19% and 23%. Those four hitters: Christian Yelich, Corey Seager, Jay Bruce, and – of course – Mr. Breakout George Valera.
  • For those counting at home: Yelich, winner of the 2018 NL MVP award, owns a career 132 wRC+; Seager, the 2016 ML Rookie of the Year, also owns a 132 wRC+ mark in his career; and Bruce, the consensus #1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2008 season, retired with a 106 wRC+ mark.

Something, something, something – you’re only as good as the company you keep, right? And if that’s the case, George Valera is really, really good. And just for fun, here’s his numbers prorated for a full 162-game campaign: nine doubles, eight triples, 36 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases. Again, he was playing against vastly older competition. And he did so while (A) improving his strikeout rate tremendously, (B) leaping up from short-season ball, and (C) spent roughly a month in the minors’ true proving ground, Double-A. Valera handles lefties and righties equally well, owns one of best eyes / approaches at the plate in the minor leagues, and is just tapping into what should be plus in-game power. He hits laser beams as well and as hard as any prospect. Throw in an above-average glove in a corner outfield spot and Valera has the makings of the best homegrown everyday player since Francisco Lindor. And he could develop into the best homegrown bat since, dare I say, Manny Ramirez. In terms of big league ceiling, think .280/.420/.600.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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2. Brayan Rocchio, 2B/SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
45/5555/6550705560

Background: Apparently talent comes in bunches when it comes to the Guardians. By now, it’s all but cemented that their 2016 draft class is historic, at least in terms of the franchise, but their 2017 international free agent class could be special as well. As noted by MLB Pipeline, the front office added the likes of George Valera, the club’s best prospect, Brayan Rocchio, Aaron Bracho, Jhonkensy Noel, and emerging infielder Jose Tena as part of their massive haul. Hailing from Caracas, Venezuela, Cleveland signed the young switch-hitting Rocchio to a deal that barely spilled over into six figures. And it’s proving to be quite the bargain. The 5-foot-10, 170-pound middle infielder ripped through the foreign and domestic rookie leagues during his debut, batting .335/.390/.442, and he spent the entire 2019 season battling the New York-Penn League as an 18-year-old. Last season, despite appearing in just 69 games above rookie ball, Rocchio opened up with Lake County and finished it with Akron. In total, he slugged .277/.346/.460 with 26 doubles, five triples, 15 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the average mark by 20% – not bad for a 20-year-old squaring off against older pitching. 

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: A slow start to his year, which isn’t surprising, put a damper on his overall numbers. But it’s important to point out that he hit a respectable .271/.329/.403 with five doubles and four homeruns over his 32 games. Short compact swing with the same lightning quickness he displayed the previous year. Very twitchy. A year later, though, I’m not certain on how the power will develop. He’s more of a slasher. His potential plus-glove pushes him up to starter status.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters posted a 130 to 140 wRC+ total with a 6% to 8% walk rate and a 19.5% to 24.5% strikeout rate in Double-A with one organization (min. 200 PA): Cristian Pache and, of course, Brayan Rocchio.

One of the club’s biggest risers up the prospect charts in 2021. There’s a chance for an above-average bat, average power, above-average speed, and a Gold Glove at the infield’s most important position. Beyond Valera, Rocchio represent the highest ceiling bat in the entire farm system. He’s not  a lock of superstardom, but he could be a perennial All-Star.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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3. Daniel Espino, RHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
705060505060

Background: One of the better known high school arms available in the 2019 draft class thanks in large part to social media. The hard-throwing, wickedly talented right-hander was regularly showcased on Rob Friedman’s Twitter account, @PitchingNinja. Born in Panama, Panama, Espino moved to the U.S. and attended Georgia Premier Academy. Long projected as a potential #1 pick, Espino’s stock tumbled as the draft neared with concerns of his long arm action – and, perhaps, from overexposure – and Cleveland happily snagged him with the 24th overall pick three years ago. The AL Central club signed him to a slightly below slot deal worth $2.5 million, saving the club roughly $300,000. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound righty made nine brief appearances between the Arizona Summer and New York-Penn Leagues during his debut, posting a 34-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23.2 innings of work. Cleveland sent their top arm up to Low-A to start the 2021 season. And he dominated. In 10 starts with the Lynchburg Hillcats, he fanned 64 and walked 23 in 42.2 innings of work. And he actually improved during his second half promotion up to High-A Central. In total, Espino finished his first full professional season with a whopping 152 punch outs, the 15th highest mark in the minors, and just 39 free passes. For those counting at home: he averaged 14.9 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Easy plus-plus velocity with a wipeout slider, and a knee-buckling curveball. Espino’s fastball shows incredible late action and both breaking balls grade out as plus. He’ll also mix in a rare below-average changeup, though I only witnessed the upper 80s offering once. He shows solid feel for pitching, especially considering his ability to overpower his peers with one pitch. The major knock on the wiry hurler – seemingly – is his long arm action. But his mechanical fluidity, athleticism, and flexibility alleviate a lot of my concerns, personally. Espino’s the best pitching prospect in a weak class – by a wide margin. Of course, there’s concern and risk associated with any hard-throwing youngster but Espino’s ceiling is incredibly high.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only five 20-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage of at least 35% in High-A with one organization (min. 45 IP): Michael Kopech, MacKenzie Gore, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, and – of course – Daniel Espino.
  • Espino’s 45.1% K% leads the pack by a WIDE margin; Kopech, the runner-up, posted a 40% mark. Espino also posted the second lowest walk percentage among the group.
  • Kopech, Gore, Reyes, and Miller were – at one point – recognized, almost universally, as some of the best prospects in the game.

Insanely talented. Espino attacks hitters with a genuine 80-grade fastball that sits – with ease – in the 96- to 98-mph range and will regularly touch triple-digits during the course of the game. His slider is unfairly good, sitting in the mid-80s but will pump 90 mph when he’s loose and easy. He’ll also mix in a rare, above-average curveball. And his changeup, which was in the 91-mph range, showed improved sink and fade. Espino owns one of the best arsenals in the game. There’s bonafide ace potential, but he’ll need a third option uptick to get there.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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4. Tyler Freeman, IF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
60/703550405555

Background: Cleveland’s 2017 draft class is pretty fascinating. The savvy front office lost their first round pick as a result of signing Edwin Encarnacion. They missed on their first selection, Quentin Holmes, and their third through seventh round picks have produced zilch other than mostly flameouts. But the team formerly known as the Indians hit big it with their second pick in the second round, Tyler Freeman, as well as their ninth round pick, James Karinchak. And though the jury’s still out on Eli Morgan, he looks to be a solid backend arm. A product of Etiwanda High School, Freeman, who was chosen with the 71st overall pick, put together an impressive debut showing in the Arizona Summer League, batting .297/.364/.414 in 36 games. And that was just a harbinger of things to come. Freeman torched the New York-Penn League the following season, slugging .352/.405/.511 with 35 extra-base hits in only 72 games. And he made quick work of the Midwest and Carolina Leagues in 2019 as well. Last season, as minor league action returned to its work, Freeman opened the year up in the minors’ toughest level, Double-A, and he continued to rake. In an injury-shortened season, the 6-foot, 190-pound infielder batted .323/.372/.470 with 14 doubles, two triples, two homeruns, and four stolen bases in 41 games. Left shoulder surgery curtailed his campaign, though all reports indicate he’ll be back to full health in time for Spring Training.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The hit tool is going to determine whether he develops into an above-average starter or a super-sub type of player. There’s a chance it develops into a 70-grade and he’s currently profiling as a Kevin Newman-type bat: .310/.350/.430 with double-digit stolen bases.

Scouting Report: Freeman is one of the few current minor league prospects that could develop a 70-grade hit tool. Surprisingly, though, his ceiling is largely predicated on his ability to consistently hit for a high average as his other tools lack standout potential. His patience at the plate will oscillate between laughably poor to below-average. But his ability to consistently get plunked with pitches – he’s been hit 56 times in 272 games or roughly once every five games – helps buoy his OBPs. He’s slugged just nine homeruns in 272 career minor league games. And while he has above-average speed, he projects to steal fewer than 20 bags in a season. Defensively, he could very easily get caught in a numbers game with the organization having a bevy of interesting shortstop prospects and Freeman’s always seemed destined for the keystone. In terms of a big line slash line, think: .310/.350/.420.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Gabriel Arias, 3B/SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
505040505555

Background: In one of the bigger selloffs in franchise history, Cleveland shipped away Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger. With each deal adding valuable pieces towards Cleveland’s rebuild. The franchise acquired Gabriel Arias, along with the supremely underrated Cal Quantrill, Joey Cantillo, Austin Hedges, and Owen Miller, from the Padres in exchange for Clevinger, outfielder Greg Allen, and minor leaguer Matt Waldron. Originally signed by the Friars out of La Victoria, Venezuela, for a hefty $1.9 million, Arias was instantaneously placed on the fast track to the big leagues. He debuted in 2017 as a spry, baby-faced 17-year-old, and spent a couple weeks in the Midwest League. He spent all of the following season back in Low-A, though he mainly struggled as he compiled a .240/.302/.352 slash line. But the Padres continued to challenge him and sent him up to High-A for the entirety of 2019. And he raked. In 120 games with Lake Elsinore, the still-teenaged shortstop slugged .302/.339/.470 with 21 doubles, four triples, 17 long balls, and eight stolen bases. Last season, Cleveland had Arias bypass Double-A and sent him directly to Columbus. And he continued to impress. In 115 games with the Clippers, Arias, who can now legally drink, hit .284/.348/.454 with a career best 29 doubles, three triples, 13 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 15%. 

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s quite raw and incredibly athletic, so I wouldn’t rule out a move to the outfield or third base if the power continues to grow. League average, maybe more depending upon how the BABIPs bounce. 

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Triple-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a strikeout percentage between 20% and 23%, and a walk percentage between 7% and 9%. Those two hitters: Joel Guzman and, of course, Gabriel Arias.

As with a lot of prospects last season, especially ones that bypassed an entire level, there was an adjustment period (e.g. slow start) for Arias. He batted a putrid .196/.318/.299 over his first 31 games. But beginning on June 12th through the rest of the season, the 6-foot-1, 217-pound infielder slugged an impressive .313/.359/.505 with 27 doubles, three triples, and 10 homeruns. He has always shown an advanced feel at the plate, but last season he displayed a more patient approach as well, something that he’s only hinted at in the past. There’s 20-homer thump brewing in the bat. Average speed which will result in double-digit stolen bases. And, perhaps the best news, he’s continued to improve his once problematic strikeout rate down to a meager 22% in 2021. Defensively, he’s average at shortstop. Big league ceiling, think: .270/.330/.440.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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6. Nolan Jones, 3B/RF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
4550/6040/35605050

Background: The club’s 2016 draft class will forever be known for adding Aaron Civale (third round), Shane Bieber (fourth), and Zach Plesac (12th) into the fold. But it wasn’t initially recognized as such. In fact, the storyline was largely built around the club’s first round gamble of Will Benson, who signed a below-slow deal, and the addition of Nolan Jones in the second round, who immediately became one of the club’s better minor league hitters. A consensus Top 100 prospect for several years, Jones looked poised to play a major role in the club’s 2020 or 2021 seasons. Instead, Jones – like the majority of minor leaguers – lost a year of development due to the 2020 COVID-imposed shutdown. And he struggled, for the first time in his career, in Triple-A in 2021. In 99 games with the Columbus Clippers, the lefty-swinging third baseman / right fielder hit a mediocre .238/.356/.431 with 25 doubles, one triple, 13 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 13%.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Jones’ lengthy, red flag raising history of platoon splits continued once again and, frankly, it showed zero signs of improvement in 2019. The former second round pick slashed a scorching .312/.439/.497 vs. right-handers, but cobbled together a paltry .151/.324/.274 against southpaws. And what’s more concerning: he whiffed in 35.3% of his plate appearances against lefties.  

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hitters posted a 108 to 118 wRC+ with a strikeout percentage between 29% and 31% in Triple-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): Chris Shaw, Deivy Grullon, Wilkin Ramirez, and Nolan Jones.

Jones has always flirted with concerning strikeout rates throughout his career, but it’s largely been overlooked because he’s consistently hit – and hit well. Last season, though, he didn’t – at all. Or did he? Jones got off to a slow start to the year, batting a paltry .172/.310/.269 over his first 28 games. He also whiffed in nearly 39% of his plate appearances. But after making some adjustments, the former second rounder rebounded to slug .262/.374/.492 over his remaining 71 contests – including a more manageable 26.5% K-rate. He also posted a strong 132 wRC+ during that time as well. And for the first time in forever, the lefty-swinging Jones didn’t struggle against southpaws either. Most will glance at his final line and chalk it up as a disappointment campaign. But it wasn’t. Defensively, he plays third base like a right fielder. He’s still a dark horse candidate for a breakout at the big league level in 2022. Big league line: .260/.360/.450.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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7. Jhonkensy Noel, 1B/3B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
50/5560304545/5050

Background: Oh, you know, just another one of the club’s international free agents signed during the 2017 period that’s starting to pay big dividends. Thanks to a later birthday, Noel would make his organizational debut the following season at just 16-years-old. And he held his own by batting .243/.357/.431 with 11 doubles and 10 homeruns in 64 games in the foreign rookie league. Noel would spend the following season, 2019, in the stateside rookie league and he continued to hit: .287/.349/.455. Last year, with the return to minor league action, Noel opened the year up hotter than Pete Rose’s gasoline suit trouncing through hell. In 38 games with the Lynchburg Hillcats, the 6-foot-1, 180-pound corner infielder bashed the competition to tune of .393/.426/.693 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. The club bounced him up to High-A in mid-August for another 26 games, most of which involved Noel hitting. Overall, the Dominican-born slugger put together an aggregate .340/.390/.615 with 14 doubles, one triple, and 19 homeruns. His production topped the league average mark by a whopping 61%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus. An ankle sprain knocked him out of commission from more than a month.

Scouting Report: In the running for the single most underrated prospect in baseball entering the 2022 season. Noel was incredibly dominant during his breakout campaign last year, showing tremendous power potential, a future 55-grade hit tool, and the ability to absolutely annihilate baseballs. But perhaps the most impressive part of his season: a fair number of his long balls were hit off of offspeed pitches, allowing him to put on full display his ability to adjust mid-pitch. He might own some of the best pure raw power in the game; it’s on the same level of Franmil Reyes. Defensively, he’s still seeing significant time at the hot corner, but once he fills out he’s all but destined to slide over to first base. One more strong showing in 2022 and Noel will be a consensus Top 100 prospect. Big lower half. Big time helium potential.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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8. Jose Tena, SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
5040/4550455050

Background: Part of the same international draft class that added George Valera and Brayan Rocchio to the fold. Tena, who signed with Cleveland for $400,000, continued to his steady march through the low levels of the minor leagues. The lefty-swinging infielder performed well during his professional debut in the foreign rookie league in 2018, batting .313/.367/.410 as a 17-year-old. The organization pushed the San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, native stateside the following year. And the more advanced, mostly teenage, pitching proved to be little competition for Tena as well; he slugged .325/.352/.440 with 14 extra-base hits in only 44 games. Last season, Tena leapt over Low-A and landed comfortably in High-A Central, where the average pitcher was three years his senior. In a career best 107 games with the Captains of Lake County, the 5-foot-10, 160-pound shortstop hit .281/.331/.467 with 25 doubles, two triples, and 16 homeruns. He also swiped 10 bags in 15 attempts. His overall production topped the league average mark by 15%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus. Tena spent the weeks after the season dominating the Arizona Fall League pitching to the tune of .387/.467/.516.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a 110 to 120 wRC+ with a strikeout percentage between 24% and 28% and a single digit walk rate in High-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): Anderson Tejeda, Charlie Fermaint, and Jose Tena. 

The power surge last season was unexpected. After all, Tena slugged two homeruns in 95 games between 2018-19 and belted out 16 in 107 games with Lake County. But don’t buy into that just yet, though. Per Baseball America’s ballpark factors, Lake County’s home field, Classic Park, is the single most homer-friendly place in High-A Central. And that’s only backed up by the fact that he hit 11 homeruns in 56 games at home vs. five dingers in 54 games on the road. The lefty-swinging Tena hits lefties and righties equally well. He doesn’t walk a lot, shows above-average speed, and plays an average shortstop.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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9. Gavin Williams, RHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
705550N/A5050

Background: Impressive career statistics coming out of Cape Fear High School in 2017, Williams, a four-year letterman, threw a total of 132.0 innings for the North Carolina high school, tallying a tidy 1.06 ERA with 212 strikeouts against 74 walks and a 18-1 win-loss record. The Rays drafted the behemoth right-hander in the 30th round, 889th overall, in the 2017 draft. Williams, of course, opted to take the collegiate route, heading to the American Athletic Conference to play for East Carolina. He spent the entirety of his freshman season working out of the Pirates’ bullpen, throwing 15.2 innings of 1.15 ERA-ball. And he also appeared in four disastrous – albeit brief – games in the Cape Cod League that summer as well. ECU stretched the 6-foot-6, 238-pound hurler out during his sophomore season as he tossed 49.1 innings between the rotation and pen. And he was only able to add a couple of appearances to his collegiate resume during the COVID-shortened campaign in 2020 as well. Fast forward to the 2021 season and Williams, the former late round pick, emerged as a Day 1 draft selection as he averaged 14.4 strikeouts against just 2.3 walks per nine innings in 15 appearances. Cleveland selected him in the first round, 23rd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.25 million, saving the club roughly $700,000. He did not appear in an affiliated game after signing.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:

“Consider the following:

Not bad company. Not. At. All.

Big, big time heater that can touch triple digits on occasion – an easy 70-grade offering. An above-average mid- to upper-70s curveball, a decent little slider that shows some sweeping depth. And he’ll mix in a solid changeup, according to reports (the changeup is the only offering I didn’t see). Williams showed a surprising amount of strikes during his final season with ECU. And even though he’s now in his fourth collegiate season, he’s still only 21. There’s some reliever risk here, but there’s also some mid-rotation caliber potential.” 

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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10. Bryan Lavastida, C

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
5545/5050/40505050

Background: Another example of the club’s tremendous scouting – and development – acumen. Cleveland unearthed the blossoming backstop in the 15th round out of Hillsborough Community College four years ago. After moonlighting as a backstop in college, the Guardians immediately converted the 6-foot, 200-pound JuCo star into a full time backstop and, as they say, the rest is history. Lavastida put together a solid showing in the Arizona Summer League in 2018, batting .292/.415/.367, and shredded the New York-Penn League competition the following year (.335/.408/.483). Last season, the Florida-born prospect continued his assault on minor league pitching as he moved through High-A, passed the Double-A test, and even spent a few weeks in Triple-A. Lavastida finished the year with an aggregate .289/.380/.456 slash line, belting out 19 doubles, one triple, nine homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 24 attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 29%.  

Scouting Report: An advanced bat that has a long tracked of well above-average offensive performances in the minor leagues. Lavastida owns an above-average hit tool and a solid eye at the plate. His power is currently a 45-grade, though it’s likely to bump up into average territory in the coming year(s). Above-average bat speed with incredibly quick hands, Lavastida needs to elevate the ball more frequently to take advantage of his raw power. His defense, according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, is average – though he’s never going to be mistaken for Ivan Rodriguez when it comes to controlling the running game. He looks like a low end starting backstop, but there may be more in the tank.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com

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