Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Hunter Greene, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | N/A | 60 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: It’s hard – actually almost impossible – to believe that the former first rounder is only entering his age-21 season because it feels like Greene should be a lot older. The thunderbolt-slinging righty was the second overall selection five years ago, being nabbed after the Twins drafted shortstop Royce Lewis. This, of course, was after the teenage phenom graced the cover of Sports Illustrated. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound hurler immediately started making waves as one of the most exciting pitchers not only in the Reds’ blossoming farm system, but in all of the minor leagues. As a wiry, baby-faced 18-year-old, the California native posted an impressive 89-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 68.1 innings in the Midwest League in 2018. Early in 2019, prior to toeing the rubber in an official game, it was announced that the burgeoning ace would require Tommy John surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his expensive right elbow. After minor league baseball returned from the COVID-imposed shutdown, Greene showed little effects from the surgical procedure in 2021. Making a career-best 21 starts between Chattanooga and Louisville, the noticeable thicker, more muscular youngster struck out 139 versus only 39 walks in 106.1 innings of work. He compiled an aggregate 3.30 ERA and a 3.65 FIP.
Snippet from The 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook: If there’s such a thing as an “easy 100 mph” Greene’s name certainly belongs on the short list. Blessed with a lightning-quick arm that allows his fastball to comfortably – and easily – sit in the 97- to 99-mph range with a peak at 102, Greene’s polish differentiates himself from all other hard-throwers.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage between 27.5% and 29.5% in Triple-A with one organization (min. 50 IP): Trevor Bauer, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, and – of course – Hunter Greene.
- For those counting at home: Bauer won the 2020 NL Cy Young award and has tallied nearly 21 bWAR in his career; Berrios is a two-time All-Star in six big league seasons; and Pineda’s totaled nearly 13 bWAR in his career.
The best fastball from a starting pitcher in professional baseball. Greene’s heater sits, like clockwork, in the upper 90s / 100-mph range. And he regularly hit 102 mph during a start in Triple-A last season. The big righty relies mainly on a pair of offspeed offerings: an upper 80s slider with varying tilt and a low 90s changeup with the former being plus, the latter being average. Based on signs relayed from the catcher, Greene also throws a curveball, though I never saw it. Unlike a lot of other hard-throwing phenoms, Green shows an uncanny ability to harness his lightning and generally works around the plate. For now he remains very fastball heavy, so he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher that will challenge hitters early in the count with offspeed pitches.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Nick Lodolo, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 60 | 60 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Since 2010, there have been 72 players drafted out of Texas Christian University. Fun Fact Part II: Of those aforementioned 72 instances, only two of them – Brandon Bailey and Nick Lodolo – were selected in the opening round. Fun Fact Part III: When the Cincinnati Reds drafted Lodolo with the seventh overall pick three years ago, he became (A) the highest drafted player and (B) handed the largest bonus, $5,432,400, in the school’s lengthy history. Standing an imposing 6-foot-6 an 205-pounds, the young left-hander immediately slid into the Horned Frogs’ rotation as a true freshman, showing not only that he belong as a Division I hurler but that he had one of the brightest amateur futures in the country. He would make 17 appearances for the Big12 Conference school that year, throwing 78.2 innings with 72 strikeouts and 28 free passes to go along with a 4.35 ERA. Lodolo raised the ante a bit during his sophomore campaign, averaging 10.9 strikeouts and just 3.3 walks per nine innings in 77.0 innings of work. But he was practically unhittable during his final collegiate season: 103.0 IP, 131 strikeouts, just 25 free passes, and a sparkling 2.36 ERA. After joining the Reds’ farm system, Lodolo ripped through eight brief low-level starts during his debut, posting an unbelievable 30-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 18.1 innings. Last season – just his first full season in professional ball, Lodolo made 13 starts as left shoulder fatigue plagued him. The results, none the less, were immaculate. He struck out 78, walked just 11, and compiled an aggregate 2.31 ERA in 50.2 innings of action.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Lodolo looks like a potential #2/#3-type arm at his peak. A few things to note: During his debut last season, [his] fastball ticked up a bit as it hit – consistently – 95 mph; his slider was 80- to 82 mph; and his changeup was filthy. There’s a nonzero chance he develops three plus pitches.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 38% with a sub-6.0% walk percentage in Double-A (min. 40 IP): Brendan McKay, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Romero, and Nick Lodolo.
As loose and easy an arm that’s currently in the minor leagues. Lodolo attacks hitters with an explosive mid-90s fastball that will touch upward of 97 mph on occasion. He’ll complement the plus offering with a plus-slurvy type curveball, an average-ish slider, and a hard, firm changeup that flashes above-average at times. Lodolo’s a fast working, strike-thrower. He’s a slinger like Chris Sale that adds some deception to his already quality arsenal. There’s still quite a bit of projection left considering his brief debut, loss of 2020 due to COVID, and his injury-marred 2021 season.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/55 | 45/60 | 55 | 40 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The club’s signing of the talented teenage infielder barely registered a blip on most radars – or across baseball – but Cincinnati appears to have hit a homerun with their free agent deal with De La Cruz. Inked for only $65,000, a small pittance on the international scene, out of Sabana Grande de Boya, Dominican Republic, the 6-foot-2, 150-pound prospect looked comfortable – if not unremarkable – during his debut in the foreign rookie league three years ago: he batted .285/.351/.382 with 11 doubles, one triple, and a dinger in 43 games. But in one of the more notable breakouts in the 2021 season, De La Cruz ripped through two separate levels. First, he torched the Complex League competition to the tune of .400/.455/.780 for 11 games. Then, he batted .269/.305/.477 with 12 doubles, seven triples, five homeruns, and eight stolen bases in 50 games with Daytona. His overall production in Low-A, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a solid 6%.
Scouting Report: The good news:
- Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 100 and 110 with a sub-6.0% walk rate and a strikeout rate above 28% in Low-A with one organization (min. 200 PA): Jorge Alfaro and Elly De La Cruz.
Long, twitchy, and filled with plenty of projectable tools. De La Cruz is a free-swinger who (A) doesn’t get cheated at the plate and (B) won’t walk much at any point in his professional career. The young Dominican is a premium athlete that’s already providing value on both sides of the ball. The problem, though, is his already problematic swing-and-miss totals; he whiffed in 31.0% of his plate appearances in Low-A. But when he does connect, watch out. Per FanGraphs, his average exit velocity was a stellar 90 mph and his max exit velocity, 112 mph, tied for the sixth highest. There’s superstar potential with a high level of risk. One more thought: Tremendous bat speed with just a flick of the wrist. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .280/.335/.500.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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4. Matt McLain, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: In the ultimate example of betting on oneself, the shortstop spurned the Diamondbacks’ multimillion dollar offer following his selection as the 25th overall pick four years ago, opting to take the collegiate route instead. McLain, a native of Orange, California, vaulted up the drafted charts during his senior prep season in 2018 when he batted .369/.467/.604. And he continued to swing a hot stick as he transitioned into the West Coast League that summer. In 23 games with the Bellingham Bells, the 5-foot-10, 175-pound infielder slugged .291/.370/.442 with six extra-base hits and a 15-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unfortunately, for McLain, though, he struggled mightily during his freshman campaign for UCLA. In 61 games for the PAC12 powerhouse, he hit a lowly .203/.276/.355 with just nine doubles, six triples, and four homeruns. The thump in his bat returned the ensuing summer in the Cape Cod League, slugging .274/.394/.425 in 34 games with the Wareham Gatemen. McLain followed that up with an explosive sophomore campaign during the COVID-shortened campaign: .397/.422/.621. Last season, the junior Bruin sported a .333/.434/.579 slash line with 14 doubles, two triples, nine homeruns, and nine stolen bases. Cincinnati called McLain’s name in the opening round, 17th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4,625,000. The front office – after a two-game cameo in the Complex League – pushed the former Bruin into High-A. He responded by batting .273/.387/.424 with six doubles and three triples. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production in High-A topped the league average mark by a solid 27%.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2012, only four PAC12 hitters met the following criteria: 200+ plate appearances, an OPS between .900 and 1.100, a walk rate between 14% and 18%, and a strikeout rate between 12% and 16%. Those four players are Mitchell Tolman, Alfonso Rivas, Matt Winaker, and Austin Wells. Tolman, Rivas, and Winaker were all selected between the fourth and seventh rounds; and the Yankees selected Wells in the first round, 28th overall, last year.
Fundamentally sound in the field, McLain is more sturdy than flashy – though his arm is an above-average tool, allowing him to make difficult throws in the hole or on the move. Offensively, it’s a similar story. McLain is an advanced college bat without a true standout. There’s a little bit of thump, enough to belt out eight to 12 homeruns in a full season. He runs well. And he profiles as a .270/.280-type hitter. In a college class lacking premium bats, McLain’s likely to hear his name in the opening half of the draft, though he’s a high floor/low ceiling type prospect.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Jay Allen, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45/50 | 55 | 50 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: A dynamic three-sport athlete during his tenure at Florida-based John Carroll High School. Perfect Game ranked the 6-foot-3, 190-pound outfielder as the 5th best outfielder and 20th best high school prospect in the country in 2021. A University of Florida commit, Allen was snagged by the Cincinnati Reds with the 30th overall selection last June, agreeing to a deal with the NL Central Division franchise for a slightly above-slot deal worth $2.4 million. The speedy center fielder batted .363/.500/.588 during his final prep campaign, belting out eight doubles, two triples, and a pair of homeruns. He also went a perfect 22-for-22 in the stolen base department as well. The teenage outfielder appeared in 19 games with the Reds’ Arizona Complex League affiliate, slugging .328/.440/.557 with three doubles, one triple, three homeruns, and 14 stolen bases (in 15 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Allen overall production topped the league average threshold by a staggering 59%.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my post-draft write-up:
“Cincinnati hasn’t shied away from premium high school talent in the opening round of the draft in recent years; the front office has used six of their 12 first round selections on prep players since 2016. Defensively, Allen has all the skills to remain in center field: plus speed, above-average arm, and a strong glove. Quick bat but not a lot of current thump. The power grades out as a 45 now, but should blossom into a solid average offering. Allen shows an underrated ability to fight off tough pitches and puts together solid at bats. He has an inconsistent hitch in his swing that needs to be cleaned up.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Bryce Bonnin, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | N/A | 50 | 55 |
Background: Coming from an athletic family, Bonnin’s father and two brothers were collegiate athletes. The Cubs selected Bonnin in the 26th round coming out of Barbers Hill High School in 2017. The hard-throwing right-hander, though, opted to take the collegiate route and headed to the SEC to play for the Arkansas Razorbacks. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound hurler would make just 11 appearances as a true freshman, throwing 19.0 innings with 16 strikeouts and 12 free passes. Bonnin would pop up briefly in the Cape Cod League and then reappear on the mound the following season throwing seeds for Texas Tech. The Texas native, who transferred to be closer to home, immediately moved in the Red Raiders’ rotation – though he continued to battle some control demons. He averaged 9.1 strikeouts and 6.3 walks per nine innings across 13 starts and a pair of relief outings. Bonnin’s 2020 season got off to an interesting start: he struck out 27, walked just six, but put together a 7.36 ERA in 14.2 innings before the COVID shutdown. Cincinnati selected him in the third round, 84th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $700,000. Last season the righty blitzed through three separate levels, starting in the Complex League for a quick start and finishing the season off with a three-game cameo in High-A. In total, he tossed 47 innings with a whopping 71 strikeouts and just 17 free passes. He compiled an aggregate 2.87 ERA and a sparkling 3.15 FIP.
Scouting Report: My immediate thought when I watched Bonnin carve up the lower levels of the minor leagues: “Oh, man, he looks like Kevin Brown during his Padres and Marlins heyday.” Lean, but muscular with 75% of his weight carried in his lower half. Bonnin, like Brown or nowadays Johnny Cueto, twists his lower half before moving toward the plate. Two plus pitches: a mid- to upper-90s heater that sits 96 and touches 99 and a hellacious, knee-buckling, bowel-locking slider. The problem for the now-strike-throwing right-hander: he’s primarily a two-pitch pitcher. Reports indicate he’ll mix in a changeup, but I never saw one. After averaging more than 13 punch outs per nine innings last year, that should tell you all you need to know about the quality of his fastball / slider combo. There’s legitimate mid-rotation caliber potential here, but it’s imperative that he learns to lean on a third option – be it a curveball, cutter, or changeup. With that being said, there’s definite reliever risk, but outside of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, he has the highest ceiling of any arm in the system.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024
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7. Jose Torres, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 40 | 45 | 60 | 50 |
Background: A native of Guayubin, Dominican Republic, Torres opened quite a few eyes during his prep career at Calvert Hall College High School: after batting .402 and knocking in 44 runs, the Brewers took a late round flier on the toolsy shortstop three years ago – though he would eventually head to N.C. State. Torres, who joined former Brewers top prospect Troy Stokes Jr. as the two most recent picks from the prep school, got off to an impressive start to his collegiate career. In 17 games, prior to the pandemic-induced shutdown, the 6-foot, 171-pound shortstop slugged .333/.369/.533 with three doubles and three homeruns – though he managed to walk just three times against 20 punch outs. Last year, just his first full season in college baseball, Torres cobbled together a .289/.343/.533 slash line, belting out 12 doubles, three triples, and 10 homeruns to go along with five stolen bases. He finished the year with a 39-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cincinnati selected him in the third round, 89th overall, and signed him to a below slot deal worth $622,500. He appeared in 28 professional games, 25 of which were in Low-A, hitting an aggregate .333/.387/.590 with four doubles, four triples, and five homeruns. He also swiped seven bags in nine total attempts.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of ACC hitters to hit between .280/.330/.500 and .300/.360/.520 with a strikeout rate north of 16% and a walk rate below 6.5% in a season (min. 200 PA): Willie Abreu, a 2016 sixth rounder out of the University of Miami.
A below-average hit tool and surprising pop from a middle infield position. Torres’ inability to work the count is also a limiting factor in his projected ceiling – though his defensive ability will help buoy his future. Soft, quick hands, an above-average or better throwing arm, and cat-like agility at shortstop, Torres could – potentially – develop into a perennial Gold Glove winner. At the plate, his swing is a bit long and the bat speed isn’t overwhelming. In terms of ceiling think: Nick Ahmed’s 2019 season with the Diamondbacks when he hit .254/.316/.437 and tallied 2.3 fWAR.”
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Michael Siani, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 35/45 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 50 |
Background: The front office looked around at each other, collectively shrugged, and pushed their proverbially chips to the center of the table in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. The cost? Two million big ones. Cincinnati signed prep center fielder Michael Siani to the hefty seven-figure bonus, the largest amount handed to a fourth rounder since the Nationals paid the same amount to convince A.J. Cole to bypass his collegiate opportunities in 2010. Siani, for his part, turned in a promising debut in the Appalachian League that summer, hitting a league average-esque .288/.351/.386 with six doubles, a trio of three-baggers, and a pair of long balls. The club sent the baby-faced teenager to the Midwest League the following year and the results were…a bit disappointing. He batted .253/.333/.339. Last season, as minor league action returned to normal, Siani was pushed up to High-A – where the numbers continued to disappoint. In 97 games with the Dayton Dragons, the 6-foot-1, 188-pound outfielder cobbled together a .216/.321/.327 with just 23 extra-base knocks. His overall production was 15% below the league average threshold, per Weighted Runs Created Plus. Siani also appeared in 14 games with the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League, slugging .300/.451/.450 in 51 plate appearances.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s so damn good [defensively], in fact, that he could hit .220 and still carve out a starting gig in center field for a championship contending big league team.
Scouting Report: Depending on the month, Siani looked like a top prospect or a fringe minor leaguer. He batted .273/.375/.509 and .258/.337/.427 during the months of June and August, but cobbled together slash lines of .177/.293/.190, .173/.295/.235/, and .208/.321/.313 the other three months of the year. And a deep dive into his peripherals doesn’t help clear the cloudy waters either. He walked at career best 12.3% of the time, but whiffed a career worst 25.2% of his plate appearances. He swiped a ton of bases, 30 in 40 attempts, but his trademark defense seemed to regress. Then during the Fall League he (A) walked more than he struck out, (B) consistently barreled the ball, and (C) handled himself against some of the better pitching prospects in the minor leagues. Physically, Siani looks thicker, more muscular. He has the tools to be an average or better big league center fielder, but he lacks the consistently. It’s like his baseball development is going through puberty and he’s still trying to find out who he actually is.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Tyler Callihan, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 50 | 45/35 | 50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: After snagging Texas Christian ace Nick Lodolo in the first round of the 2019 draft, Cincinnati selected three straight middle infielders: Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan, and Ivan Johnson. Callihan, the 85th overall pick that year, signed quickly and got in a full season of development with the Greeneville Reds in the Appalachian League. He batted an OBP-deficient .250/.286/.422 with 10 doubles, five triples, and five homeruns. The lefty-swinging infielder also appeared in five games with the Billings Mustangs as well, going 8-for-20. Last season the Florida native began the year off on a strong note, hitting .299/.351/.437 with eight extra-base hits through his first 23 contest. But his elbow flared up and eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery. Prior to the injury, his overall production was 13% better than the league average threshold, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Here’s what’s already apparent: impressive power, perhaps even approaching plus power down the line; decent glove; very little patience at the plate; and a the hit tool is underdeveloped.
Scouting Report: The 2021 season had the makings of a potential breakout campaign for the former prep star: he was flashing solid power, walking nearly twice as frequently as he did during his debut, and handling the transition to full season action with relative ease. Simple, smooth left-handed stroke that’s reminiscent of former first baseman Mark Grace. If the progress Callihan showed during his abbreviated 2021 season carries over into 2022, as well as no major injury setbacks, it’s not out of the question for him to start the year in High-A. Defensively, after splitting time between the hot corner and the keystone during his debut, Callihan showed a lot of promise and improvement as he played solely at second base. He’s got the feel as a late blooming type, like D.J. LeMahieu.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Austin Hendrick, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35 | 50/60 | 40 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The opening portion of the 2020 draft was chock full of high end talent with the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Max Meyer, Asa Lacy, Emerson Hancock, Nick Gonzales, Robert Hassell, Zac Veen, Reid Detmers, and Garrett Crochet all hearing their names within the top 11 selections. And that doesn’t include #2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad, who’s battled myocarditis since entering the minor leagues. The 12th pick two years ago, Austin Hendrick, has been beyond abysmal as a professional. A product of West Allegheny High School, located in Imperial, Pennsylvania, Hendrick made his debut last season with the Daytona Tortugas, hitting a paltry .211/.380/.388 with 16 doubles, seven homeruns, and four stolen bases in 63 games. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, still managed to top the league average threshold by a shockingly solid 19%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Only three-year-old hitters posted a 115 to 125 wRC+ total with a strikeout rate north of 33% in Low-A with one organization (min. 250 PA): Lawrence Butler, Trenton Kemp, and – of course – Austin Hendrick.
In terms of overall production, Hendrick was quite valuable for the club’s Low-A East affiliate thanks to his otherworldly 19% walk rate. But where there’s good, there’s typically bad. And a 1970s era Cadillac could be driven through the hole in Hendrick’s swing – sideways. He whiffed in nearly 38% of his plate appearances last season. His overall production was torpedoed by an awful showing in June when he batted .122/.308/.244. But even during May, July, and August, he was whiffing 36% of the time. You look at the swing and see plus power and matching bat speed, something along the lines of a young Clint Frazier, but the swing-and-miss issues are practically insurmountable.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
