Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. J.R. Ritchie, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55/60 | 55/60 | 55 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: Arms, especially high school arms, have an absurdly high attrition rate. Back in 2016, though, the Atlanta Braves selected teenage pitchers with their first three picks, nabbing Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller – all coming off the board within the first 44 selections. And, surprisingly, all three young men would make it to the big leagues – with varying degrees of success. Six years later the reigning World Series champions took a similar path through the opening rounds of the draft. The Braves opened up their draft class by selecting two-way prospect Owen Murphy, who will eventually convert into a full time hurler, with the 20th overall pick. Fifteen selections later they grabbed Bainbridge High School ace J.R. Ritchie. And then circled back around to the prep ranks for right-hander Cole Phillips. Ritchie, the Washington Gatorade Player of the Year winner following his junior season, was nearly unhittable during his senior campaign with the Spartans: he batted .468 with four homeruns and struck out a whopping 74 batters – against just three free passes – in only 35.1 innings of work. Prior to the draft Ritchie was committed to UCLA. After signing with the club for nearly $2.4 million, Ritchie tossed 14.1 innings in the low levels, striking out 14 against five free passes. He surrendered just three earned runs.
Scouting Report: Quality three-pitch mix: a low- to mid-90s fastball, an upper 70s / low 80s curveball, and a promising changeup. Ritchie’s heater will sit in the 92- to 93-mph range and will touch several ticks higher on occasion. There’s considerable projection left on the offering as he begins to fill out, as well as his lack of pitching experience over his final two seasons with Bainbridge; he tossed fewer than 60 innings between his junior and senior campaigns. Ritchie reportedly throws two separate breaking balls – a curveball and a slider – but they appear to be one in the same, an above-average pitch that will flash plus at times. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander also throws a sneakily good changeup that is sure to garner a lot of whiffs in the professional ranks. It doesn’t bend like Pedro Martinez’s changeup, but it seemingly stops halfway to home plate for a bathroom break before easing its way into the catcher’s glove. There’s some #3-type upside here. Very, very savvy pick by the Braves.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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2. Cole Phillips, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 55 | 45 | 55 |
Background: Cole Phillips, a 6-foot-3, 200-pound right-hander, was destined to become the next big, hard-throwing prospect to come out of Texas. It’s practically what the state is known for. After committing to Baylor University as a sophomore, Phillips’ big league potential seemed to be growing before reaching a bubbling crescendo throughout his senior year at Boerne High School. Through his first 23.1 innings of work, his punched out 42 hitters – 60% of the outs he recorded came via the whiff. And, according to a variety of reports, the wiry righty reached back touched a scorching 101 mph during a March 10th game against Corpus Christi Ray. A little more than two weeks later Phillips’ world would come crashing down. In the midst of a perfect game, on a 1-2 pitch, Phillips tore the UCL in his coveted right elbow – an injury, of course, that necessitates Tommy John surgery. It should be noted, though, that the 18-year-old with a bulldog mentality stayed in the game to strike out the next hitter. On three straight sliders. Regardless of the injury, Atlanta drafted him in the second round, 57th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,497,500 – an agreement that saves the ball club $2,500. He did not appear in an affiliated game after joining the organization.
Scouting Report: Prior to the injury Phillips owned – arguably – the best arsenal in an admittedly weak class of hurlers. Plus, plus fastball that not only touched triple digits, but would regularly sit in the upper 90s. He complements the offering with a knee-buckling, almost unfair slider with plenty of late, hard tilt. He’ll also mix a rare, underrated changeup with good fade that should serve him well in the professional ranks. Very wise gamble by the Braves who drafted an arm that could have been on par talent-wise with Andrew Painter, the 13th overall pick in 2021.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Owen Murphy, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Owen Murphy did a little bit of everything during his time at Riverside Brookfield High School: the prep athlete opened up his career as the starting quarterback as a freshman, starred at wide receiver the next year, and moved back to the QB spot the following season. On the diamond, he excelled at shortstop and on the mound for the Bulldogs. Murphy’s baseball production exploded during the 2021 season as tallied a tidy 0.33 ERA with 97 punch outs in 42.1 innings of work to go along with a .453 batting average, six doubles, four triples, and nine homeruns at the plate. And, somehow, the mercurial two-way phenom raised the bar even high during his senior campaign. Murphy struck out 137 – against just four free passes – in 58.1 innings while tallying a nearly impossible 0.12 ERA. He also tossed an improbable four no-hitters during the season. At the dish, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound prospect batted .548 with 18 long balls and 75 RBIs. He easily captured the Illinois Gatorade Player of the Year. He left Riverside Brookfield as the school’s record holder for season (.548) and career (.470) batting average, career RBIs (130), career homeruns (30), best season ERA (0.12), and career ERA (0.54). Atlanta selected Murphy in the opening round, 20th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2,556,900. He appeared in five games between the Complex League and Low-A, throwing 12.0 innings with a 17-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Scouting Report: Immediately after selecting Murphy in the opening round last July, the organization indicated that the infielder / right-hander could begin his professional career as a two-player. That lasted approximately one day before the front office reneged and told him the mound was his future. Murphy shows a quality four-pitch mix: low- to mid-90s fastball, a 12-6 bending, average curveball, a tightly wound slider that flashes above-average at times and a workable changeup. Murphy doesn’t possess an elite arsenal. But it’s deep enough. And he commands it – generally – well. There may be a little more in the tank in terms of velocity. Murphy looks like a #3/#4-type arm. Prior to the draft I had a second round grade on him.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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4. Braden Shewmake, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 45 | 40 | 45 | 60 | 50 |
Background: Knownfor his sweet lefty swing and above-average glove-work throughout his tenure in College Station. Shewmake had the look, the feel as a fast moving, get-to-the-big-league-quickly type of player that could anchor the left side of an infield with good, not great value. He was as consistent as they come at the plate, hitting .323/.381/.487 in 188 games with the Aggies, with power (72 extra-base knocks) and speed (32 stolen bases). And he had the awards to back it up too, like: All-SEC First Team (2018), First Team All-American (2017), Freshman All-American (2017), and SEC Freshman of the Year (2017). Shewmake even spent two summers on Team USA’s National squad. He was a surefire first rounder with a pedigree and a history of production. He was supposed to move quickly. And, on the onset, that’s exactly what the 6-foot-4, 190-pound shortstop did. He ripped through the Low-A competition by hitting .318/.389/.473 through 51 games and Atlanta immediately shipped him up to Double-A, the true proving ground. But he struggled to the tune of .217/.289/.217 in 17 games. But still, though, in his first half season of pro ball Shewmake accrued time at the most trying level. Minor League Baseball would miss the entire following year due to COVID, so Shewmake was sent back to Double-A for another go round, a longer look at hurlers that will throw offspeed pitches where they want, when they want. And he was miserable. He batted a putrid .228/.271/.401 in 83 games with Mississippi. Atlanta pushed the aging prospect up to Triple-A at the start of 2022. And in an injury-shortened season, Shewmake hit .259/.316/.399 with 14 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and nine stolen bases. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 11% below the league average mark. Shewmake’s campaign ended in early August courtesy of a leg injury after a gruesome collision with Travis Demeritte.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 24-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Triple-A league (min. 300 PA): 85 to 95 wRC+, 6.5% to 8.5% walk rate, and 17.5% to 20% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Zack Cozart, Matt Reynolds, Scott Schebler, and – of course – Braden Shewmake.
Plus glove at the most important position on the infield, Shewmake’s defense alone comes close to justifying giving me a shot at the starting gig – if there weren’t better options available, which happens to the case in Atlanta. The hit tool has been a complete disappointment and the power hasn’t shown up as consistently as expected either. Shewmake runs a little bit and will take the occasional walk. Like Cozart, Schebler, and Reynolds, Shewmake is likely to spend several years at the big league level, maybe even earning the a starting gig for a couple years in the right situation.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Ambioris Tavarez, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40/55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: One of the club’s big international free agency expenditures two years ago, Atlanta signed the San Cristobal, Dominican Republic native to a hefty seven-figure bonus – $1.5 million, to be exact. As reported by MLB.com, the wiry middle infielder underwent the knife for thoracic outlet syndrome and wouldn’t make his affiliated debut until early August last season. Tavarez was able to squeeze in 17 games with the club’s Complex League team, hitting a respectable .277/.304/.385 with four doubles, one homerun, and three stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Quick and agile on defense, Tavarez should have no issues sticking at shortstop – as long as the arm hasn’t degraded too much due to the thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Lightning bat speed that projects for above-average power, especially once his 6-foot, 198-pound frame begins to fill out. Tavarez could be one of the bigger breakout prospects in 2023, not only in the Braves’ system, but in all of baseball.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2026
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6. Jared Shuster, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 70 | 55 | 45 |
Background: It’s readily apparent that the Braves’ 2020 draft class is a win – a BIG win – thanks to the emergence of last year’s National League Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider. And that doesn’t even account for Bryce Elder’s contributions either. Anything the front office gets from any of their remaining picks is simply icing on the cake. Atlanta drafted Shuster in the opening round, 25th overall, that year after a mostly frustrating career with the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. But the front office gambled on his dominance in the Cape Cod in 2019, as well as his four-game showing with the ACC Conference squad in 2020. Shuster debuted with the club’s High-A affiliate two years ago, but after 15 strong appearance he was bumped up to Double-A to close out his successful campaign. Last season the 6-foot-3, 210-pound southpaw made 25 starts and two relief appearances between his stints with Mississippi and Gwinnett, averaging 9.4 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He tallied an aggregate 3.29 ERA and a 3.99 FIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hurlers posted a 29% to 31% strikeout percentage in any Double-A league (min. 75 IP): Bobby Miller, Andrew Abbott, Alexander Guillen, and – of course – Jared Shuster. Atlanta’s young lefty owns the best walk percentage, 6.23%, among the group.
The mid-90s heat that Shuster was pumping during his final collegiate season is still nowhere to be found. Instead, he continues to operate in the 90- to 92-mph range but the average offering plays up considerably due to his plus-plus changeup. The offspeed offering shows tremendous velocity separation, roughly 13 or so mph in difference. It’s arguably the finest in the minor leagues. He’ll also mix in an average, horizontally darting slider as well. He’s a command guy. And he needs to be a command guy to succeed. There’s backend starting potential with the floor of a solid reliever.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55/60 | 45/50 | 35/45 | 45 |
Background: Texas-based Colleyville Heritage High School’s produced an influx of minor league talent over the past couple years, including Alex Scherff, an over-slot fifth rounder by the Red Sox in 2017; Bobby Witt Jr., the second overall pick in 2019, and, most recently, A.J. Smith-Shawver. Taken by the Braves in the seventh round and handed a deal worth nearly $1 million two years ago, Smith-Shawver turned in a rollercoaster debut with the club’s Complex League affiliate that summer, posting a 16-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 8.1 innings of work. Last season the Braves’ brass bounced the 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander up to Augusta for his first crack at full season action. Smith-Shawver made 17 starts with the GreenJackets, averaging an impressive 13.5 punch outs and 5.1 free passes per nine innings. He finished the season with a 5.11 ERA, a significantly better 3.53 FIP, and a 3.84 xFIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 33% with a walk percentage of at least 12% in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Tyler Glasnow, Ronan Kopp, and A.J. Smith-Shawver.
A two-sport star during his days at Colleyville Heritage High School, Smith-Shawver was dubbed “the best-kept secret in the state” by the school’s football coach after leading the team to a big win over Midlothian. Unsurprisingly, the former star quarterback owns one of the best arms in the Braves’ farm system with his fastball touching as high as 98 mph. But he commands the offering, as well as the rest of his arsenal, poorly. Smith-Shawver’s slider has the potential to be a plus weapon, but inconsistency issues have made it unreliable at this point in his career. He’ll also mix in a rare, fringy changeup. There’s as much potential as any hurler still in Atlanta’s farm system, but it’s going to come down to developing command and a reliable third offering. His athleticism should allow his feel for the strike zone to improve in the coming years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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8. Blake Burkhalter, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Alabama-based Northview High School’s had a few professional ballplayers walk through their hallowed halls, including a pair of former big leaguers in Gabe Gross, a first round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2001, as well as Clint Robinson. Right-hander Blake Burkhalter could – potentially – become the third to join the list. A 6-foot, 204-pound reliever for the entirety of his collegiate career, Burkhalter made a brief, four-game cameo out of Auburn’s bullpen during his COVID-shortened 2020 freshman season. He would finish the year with three walks, three strikeouts, and a 2.08 ERA in 4.1 innings of work. The scrappy hurler – with wavering control – dominated the SEC competition the following year as he posted a sparkling 1.71 ERA across 21.0 innings of work, striking out 30 and walking 16. He spent the ensuing summer playing for the Alexandria Aces in the Cal Ripken Collegiate Baseball League. He would throw another 16.0 innings, posting a dominating 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Finally moved into Auburn’s closer’s role, Burkhalter honed in on the strike zone like never before. In 46.1 innings, the hefty righty saved 16 games while posting an immaculate 71-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For those counting at home, that’s 13.8 strikeouts and just 1.4 walks per nine innings. Atlanta selected him at the back of the second round, 76th overall, and signed him to a well-below slot deal worth $647,500, saving the club more than $200,000. He posted a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 4.2 debut innings.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work as a pitcher during his sophomore season, consider the following:
- Since 2011, there have been a total of 106 instances in which a Division I hurler averaged at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 40 IP). Of those 106 instances, only two pitchers – Nick Jones and Blake Burkhalter – averaged fewer than 1.5 walks per nine innings.
Burkhalter features a three-pitch mix: a mid-90s fastball, sitting in the 95- to 96-mph range, a power cutter in the upper 80s to low 90s, and a tumbling mid 80s changeup. Used only as a reliever for the past three years, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Braves convert the former Tiger into a starting pitcher – where he would have the ceiling as a #4-type arm. Despite it being an under-slot signing, it’s incredibly savvy by the 2021 World Series Champs.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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9. Spencer Schwellenbach, SS / RPH
| FB | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Background: A dynamic two-way player during his amateur days at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach captured the John Olerud Award after hitting .284/.403/.459 with 12 doubles, one triple, six long balls, and nine stolen bases as the team’s shortstop and posting a barely-there 0.57 ERA with 34 punch outs, eight walks, and 10 saves as the their closer. Atlanta selected the part-time infielder / reliever in the second round two years ago, signing him to $997,500 deal as the 59th overall player chosen. Schwellenbach, a native of Saginaw, Michigan, immediately underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entirety of the 2022 season. Reports indicate that he’ll be back on the mound at the start of the 2023 season.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Schwellenbach immediately after the 2021 draft:
“A late-rising prospect because Schwellenbach was a virtual unknown on the mound prior to the 2021 season. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound right-hander features a mid-90s fastball, which averaged in excess of 2300 RPM. His plus slider sits in low- to mid-80s with wipeout movement that will miss plenty of bats and averaged more than 2500 RPM. Schwellenbach will mix in an incredibly underrated low 80s change with hard downward movement as well. As a hitter, Schwellenbach shows a 45-grade bat, tremendous on-base ability and decent power. Atlanta will likely look to stretch Schwellenbach out as a starting pitcher.”
Fingers crossed that Schwellenbach doesn’t have any setbacks in the coming months.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Roddery Munoz, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 55/60 | 40 | 50/55 | 45 |
Background: What’s better than one Munoz? Two, of course. Atlanta signed Roddery Munoz in mid-June, 2018 for the paltry sum of $30,000. Nearly one year to the day the organization swung back around and agreed to a deal with his twin brother, Rolddy. Roddery would appear in 10 games in the foreign rookie league the summer he signed his deal, posting a problematic 17-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.0 innings of work. So it wasn’t shocking that he found himself back in the foreign rookie league for another do over the following year. While the results were improved – 9.7 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 – they remained disappointing for a 19-year-old in the lowest levels of pro ball. Two years later, thanks to the lost COVID season, Munoz posted some interesting numbers in his limited stint with Augusta, averaging 10 K/9 and just 3.3 BB/9. And he was able to carry that momentum forward into 2023. The burly 6-foot-3, 210-pound right-hander made 19 starts with Rome and another three with Mississippi in his most successful season to date. He tossed a career best 100.1 innings, recording 119 punch outs, 42 free passes, and a 4.66 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been eight 22-year-old hurlers that met the following criteria in a High-A season (min. 75 IP): 26% to 28% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage. Those eight hurlers: Greg Holland, Rogelio Armenteros, Taylor Widener, Buddy Baumann, Victor Castaneda, Ryan Bergert, Mason Hickman, and Roddery Munoz.
Very, very good fastball / slider combination. Munoz attacks hitters with a mid- to upper-90s heater with plenty of late, explosive life. The type of fastball that avoids trouble even if it’s over the heart of the plate. His slider sits in the 87- to 89-mph range and will touch the low 90s on occasion. It’s hard with late, downward bite. He’ll mix in a rare 89- to 91-mph changeup, but only because he’s forced too. Atlanta currently has him stretching out as a starter, but the lack of a third option all but guarantees a trip to the bullpen. He’s a strong candidate to develop a splitter / split-change. There’s some Brusdar Graterol type bullpen potential here.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
