Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects for 2023

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1. Corbin Carroll, CF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
60	55	60	60	55	70

Background: The opening round of the 2019 draft may prove to be one of the stronger ones in recent memory. The top overall pick, Adley Rutschman, is already a star and may be a perennial MVP candidate – barring injury. Bobby Witt Jr. became the fifth rookie in baseball history to slug 20 homeruns and swipe 30 bags in a season, joining Mike Trout, Devon White, Tommie Agee, and Mitchell Page. Andrew Vaughn posted a 111 OPS+ last season for the White Sox. Riley Greene, Nick Lodolo, and George Kirby turned in solid, sometimes impressive debuts. That doesn’t even count Toronto ace Alek Manoah or current Top Prospects Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Daniel Espino, or Anthony Volpe. And then there’s Corbin Carroll, who may be the best overall hitter among the entire group. A product of Seattle-based Lakeside School, Arizona drafted the pint-sized dynamo with the 16^th overall pick that summer, signing him to a deal worth a hefty $3,745,500. The toolsy centerfielder has proven to be worth every penny – and so much more. Carroll turned in an impressive debut in 2019, splitting time between the stateside rookie league and Hillsboro, batting an aggregate .299/.409/.487 in 42 games. The 5-foot-10, 165-pound outfielder got off to a monster start in High-A two years ago, mashing .435/.552/.913 through a week of games before a shoulder injury forced him under the knife and knocked him out for the remainder of the year. Last season Carroll showed no ill effects as he moved through Double-A in dominant fashion and continued showcasing his five tools in Triple-A. The former prep star appeared in 32 games with the Diamondbacks as well, hitting .260/.330/.500. He finished his time in the minor leagues with an aggregate .307/.425/.611 with 22 doubles, eight triples, 24 homers, and 31 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his minor league production surpassed the league average mark by 57%.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work with Amarillo, consider the following:

• Since 2006, only five 21-year-old hitters tallied at least a 160 wRC+ in any Double-A league (min. 250 PA): Mookie Betts, Mike Moustakas, Austin Hays, Oswaldo Arcia, and – of course – Corbin Carroll.

Carroll can impact the game in every facet:

• He’s a plus defensive centerfielder.

• He owns a plus hit tool and profiles as a consistent .300 big league hitter.

• He’s going to be a consistent 20-homer threat.

• Plus speed.

• Above-average patience.

If there was one prospect that could ascend to the level of Mookie Betts, it’s Corbin Carroll. He’s going to be a .300/.360/.480-type big league hitter and a cornerstone for the Diamondbacks’ franchise for years to come.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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2. Jordan Lawlar, SS

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
40/50	55	60	55	50	70

Background: The first time the Diamondbacks owned the sixth pick in the draft they selected Texas A&M ace Barret Loux, grabbing the right-hander directly ahead of Matt Harvey and several picks in front of Chris Sale. Loux, of course, washed out of the minor leagues just five years later. The second – and most recent – time Arizona had the sixth overall pick they made sure not to miss, drafting Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas product Jordan Lawlar. Once named the Jackie Robinson Perfect Game Player of the Year, Lawlar put on a clinic of offensive prowess during his first full season in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound infielder opened the year up with Visalia, but after mashing .351/.447/.603 through 44 games, the front office bumped him up to Hillsboro. And he continued to beat up the High-A competition (.288/.385/.478). So the player develop regime pushed the then-19-year-old burgeoning star up to the toughest minor league level, Double-A, for a 20-game cameo. Lawlar finished the year with an aggregate .303/.401/.509 with 18 doubles, seven triples, 16 homeruns, and 39 stolen bases. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production smashed the league average mark by 38%. The front office sent the toolsy shortstop into the Arizona Fall League. And, of course, he passed with flying colors as he slugged .278/.469/.528.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Low-A, his longest stint last season, consider the following:

• Since 2006, only eleven 19-year-old hitters tallied 160 wRC+ mark or greater in any Low-A league (min. 200 PA): Byron Buxton, Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Joey Gallo, Eloy Jimenez, Bo Bichette, Jarred Kelenic, Jaff Decker, Brennen Davis, James Wood, and – of course – Jordan Lawlar.

As expected, Lawlar’s defense is fringy average, but it’s decent enough to keep him at the most important position on the infield dirt. But when it comes to Lawlar it’s not really about the leather, is it? Patient approach. Above-average hit tool and power with plus speed. Incredible bat speed with enough natural loft that Lawlar may eventually creep into 30-homer territory. He’s entering his age-20 season with Double-A experience on his resume. He has a significant chance of claiming the big league club’s shortstop gig some point late in 2023. Lawlar’s profiling like a .280/.360/.460 hitter with average defense.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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3. Druw Jones, CF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
55	50/60	70	50	70	70

Background: The legend of Druw Jones does not begin with Druw, nor does it begin with his 10-time Gold Glove winning father Andruw. No. The legend begins on the island of Curacao with Henry Jones. According to an article by Jennifer Frey in The Washington Post in October 1996, the elder Jones, a gifted centerfielder, is still bantered about in baseball circles. And legend has it, or at least according to a 2002 article in ESPN the Magazine, Henry fractured his foot from an acrobatic catch on the outfield wall and was told that he would miss six weeks. He was standing back in centerfield, the land of Joneses, less than two weeks later. Like Mutt Mantle did to Mickey, Henry molded Andruw into a dynamic, generational talent. One so gifted in the outfield that he would eventually become the greatest defensive centerfielder in history en route to winning those 10 Gold Gloves. Signed by the Braves for a paltry $46,000 in early July in 1996, Andruw would become just the second Curacaoan to sign with a big league franchise. The first, of course, was “Bam Bam” Hensley Meulens. Enter: Druw Jones, the next in line to don the family crown as a generational centerfielder. The youngest Jones, by the way, captured the Perfect Game National Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021. A product of Georgia-based Wesleyan High School, Druw slugged a scorching .570/.675/1.026 during his final amateur season, belting out seven doubles, three triples, and 13 homeruns. He also knocked in 39 RBIs and swiped 32 stolen bases. He also went 10-1 on the mound as well. Arizona happily selected the toolsy 6-foot-4, 180-pound outfielder with the second overall pick last July, signing him to a massive $8,189,400 deal. Prior to make his debut Jones underwent the knife to repair a torn posterior labrum in his left shoulder. He’s expected to make a full recovery.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft analysis:

“Tremendously gifted with the work ethic to match. Jones rocketed a ball to the opposite field (right field) during the Georgia State Championship game that posted an exit velocity of 106. He’s a genuine five-tool player, much like his father was during his 10-year prime. The sound off of the younger Jones’ bat is like an explosion. Simple, low maintenance swing. Plus power potential generated with natural loft and tremendous bat speed. Above-average hit tool. Above-average arm that’s improved through a quick release from center field. Like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jones will forever be compared to his father. The young center fielder doesn’t possess the sheer power of his old man, but he’s more fleet of foot.”

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2026

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4. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP

FB	CB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
55	50	55/60	60	60	55

Background: The Bellarmine University ace opened some eyes up during his strong debut showing two years ago. A fifth round pick in 2020, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound righty essentially moved from the Great Lakes Valley Conference and accrued some Double-A experience within a year. Pfaadt made 22 starts with Visalia, Hillsboro, and Amarillo that season, throwing 131.2 innings with a fantastical 160-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a solid 3.21 ERA. And you know what? The former Bellarmine Knight continued that level of dominance as he split the 2022 season between Amarillo and Reno. Pfaadt would average an otherworldly 11.7 strikeouts and a miniscule 1.8 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.83 ERA and a 4.21 FIP. For his career, the big right-hander is averaging 11.4 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings with a 3.56 ERA.

Scouting Report: Not only did Pfaadt capture the minor league strikeout leader crown, his 218 punch outs were the most in minor league baseball since at least 2006, the first season in which FanGraphs data began. With respect to his work in Double-A in 2022, consider the following:

• Since 2006, since 2006 only two 23-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in any Double-A league (min. 100 IP): Taylor Widener, a former Arizona farmhand, and Brandon Pfaadt.

The former Division II star owns one of the more underrated repertoires in all of the minor leagues. Pfaadt’s fastball will sit comfortably in the 92- to 94-mph range and touch a few ticks higher on rare occasions. The above-average offering has some noticeable carry to it. His slider was wickedly unfair at points in the game and will oscillate between above-average and plus. And his changeup is one of the best in the minors. He’ll also mix in a rare, get-me-over curveball a few times per start as well. What separates Pfaadt from similarly performing contemporaries is his ability to command his entire arsenal. He’s not just a strike thrower, he’s a quality strike thrower. At this point, just three years removed from Division II ball, Pfaadt is knocking loudly on the D-backs’ door. And he just needs a chance to develop into a quality #3-type arm.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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5. Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B / 3B

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
45	50/60	35	50	45/50	50

Background: Part of the club’s 2019 international free agency class. Arizona signed the promising corner infielder for a modest – or relatively modest – $200,000. De Los Santos made his affiliated debut two years later – thanks to the pandemic. And he instantly became of the better low level hitters in the organization. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound first / third baseman slugged .295/.370/.489 in 62 games between the Complex League and Visalia. Last season the front office sent the then-19-year-old back to Low-A, but De Los Santos obliterated the competition through 78 games. He then moved into the Northwest League. That stinted lasted just over a month before he, too, was deemed ready for the minors’ toughest challenge – Double-A. De Los Santos finished his second professional season with an aggregate .306/.348/.499 with 29 doubles, two triples, 22 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, De Los Santos’ overall production topped the league average mark by a solid 18%. The Dominican infielder owns a career .303/.355/.496 slash line.

Scouting Report: Despite a (A) second very solid season and (B) reaching Double-A during his age-19 season, De Los Santos remains one of the more underrated hitting prospects in the game. He’s just beginning to tap into his plus power potential and should become a consistent 25- to 30-homer threat at full maturity. The young slugger has flirted with some problematic strikeout rates – or at least on the lower fringes – so that’s something that will have to be monitored moving forward. He’s a questionable defender at the hot corner, and if he can’t show steady progress in the coming years a permanent move across the diamond is likely. Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): 117 to 127 wRC+, a 22% to 26% strikeout rate, and a 5.5% to 7.5% walk rate. Those three hitters: Javy Guerra, Angel Morales, and Deyvison De Los Santos.

If De Los Santos comes out swinging in 2023, he may be in position to make his big league debut late in the year.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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6. Jorge Barrosa, CF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
50	40	60	50	70	45

Background: In baseball terms, 2017 seems like a lifetime ago. Royce Lewis beat out flame-throwing phenom Hunter Greene for the top overall pick in the midsummer draft. The Houston Astros captured the World Series trophy. Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer were named Cy Young Award winners for their respective leagues. And somewhere on the sports webpages, buried deep, was the announcement that the Diamondbacks signed a toolsy outfielder from Puerto Cabello, Venezuela for $415,000. The speedy switch-hitter has maintained an impressive level of consistency throughout his tenure in the Diamondbacks’ organization. Barrosa batted a solid .279/.373/.389 during his professional debut in 2018. After a struggling a bit during his stint in short-season ball in 2019, the 5-foot-9, 165-pound centerfielder hit .285/.353/.422 as he split the 2021 season between Visalia and Hillsboro. And last season as he appeared in a career best 120 games (110 with Amarillo and 10 with Hillsboro), Barrosa put together a .279/.372/.439 slash line with career bests in doubles (33) and homeruns (13) to go along with two triples and 26 stolen bases. His production in Double-A topped the league average mark by 11%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus.

Scouting Report: Last season there were 12 qualified 21-year-old hitters in any Double-A league. Here’s a ranking, based on Weighted Runs Created Plus, for those 12 hitters, which happens to feature some notable prospects:

1. George Valera (129 wRC+)
2. Anthony Volpe (122 wRC+)
3. Jordan Diaz (120 wRC+)
4. Malcom Nunez (116 wRC+)
5. Brayan Rocchio (114 wRC+)
6. Jorge Barrosa (111 wRC+)
7. Ronny Mauricio (104 wRC+)
8. Jose Rodriguez (103 wRC+)
9. Andy Pages (102 wRC+)
10. Jose Tena (91 wRC+)
11. Liover Peguero (88 wRC+)
12. Felix Valerio (78 wRC+)

Now let’s take a look at how his numbers and peripherals stack up against his peers in recent history. Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters posted a 105 to 115 wRC+ with a 14% to 17% strikeout rate and a double-digit walk rate in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Caleb Grindl and Jorge Barrosa.

One of the best defensive players at any position in the minor leagues, Barrosa’s glove work and speed guarantees him at least a bench option at the big league level. He’s a potential Gold Glove winner. But Barrosa value isn’t just wrapped up into his spectacular outfield play either. Average hit tool with some added boost due to his speed. Barrosa’s homerun output last year was significantly aided by the team’s home park. With players like Myles Straw and Trent Grisham earning regular playing time – despite their offensive inefficiencies – Barrosa certainly has a spot in the big leagues. He has the potential to be a .260/.310/.390 hitter with plus defense.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2023

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7. Blake Walston, LHP

FB	CB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
55	55	55	50	50	50

Background: The 2019 draft was going to be a pivotal moment for the front office. It had the potential to be a franchise-altering draft class because the organization owned four first round selections and seven among the first 75 picks. After selecting future franchise cornerstone Corbin Carroll with their first pick, Arizona used their next five selections on pitchers – the first of which was on New Hanover High School ace Blake Walston. The 26^th overall pick that summer, Walston breezed through his limited debut in the Arizona Summer and Northwest Leagues. And once minor league action returned following the lost 2020 season, the 6-foot-5, 175-pound southpaw continued to show promise as he blitzed through Low-A in eight starts and handled himself well in 11 games with Hillsboro. Last season Walston returned to High-A for additional seasoning, but after trouncing the opposition for four games the front office deemed him ready for the most important minor league test: Double-A. But the big southpaw got off to a terrible start as he allowed 20 earned runs over his first 14.2 innings of work. After that, though, Walston was able to right the ship – sans one 10-run clunker against the San Antonio Missions. The former first rounder finished the year with a career best 124.0 innings, recording a 137-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 4.79 ERA and a 4.42 FIP.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only five 21-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 100 IP): 23% to 25% strikeout percentage with a 7.5% to 9.5% walk percentage. Those five hitters: Edwin Diaz, Angel Rodon, Grant Holmes, Rony Garcia, and – of course – Blake Walston.

That uptick in heat still hasn’t happened, and as he’s entering his age-22 season it’s becoming more and more unlikely. Walston’s similar to Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis’s young lefty prospect. Both own solid, deep arsenals without a true swing-and-miss offerings. Both command the strike zone well. And both blitzed through the low levels of the minor leagues.  Walston features a 92-93 mph fastball, an above-average offering. His low-70s curveball and low-80s slider are both 55-grades with the former the better pitch. And his changeup his workable enough. Walston’s more known for his lack of holes, rather than his ceiling. #4 / #5 type starter in the future. A solid first half of 2023 will likely put him in position for a late-season call up to Arizona.

Ceiling: 2.0-to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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8. Ryne Nelson, RHP

FB	CB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
60	55	60	50	50	50

Background: The franchise has invested heavily in collegiate arms over the past couple of years. The front office snagged Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry in the first two rounds of the 2019 draft. The following year the organization selected Bryce Jarvis and Slade Cecconi in the opening rounds. And last season the team snagged Mississippi State flame-thrower Landon Sims in the first round and Nate Savino two rounds later. Nelson, the 56^th overall pick four years ago, took a similar path to the big leagues as fellow draft-mate Drey Jameson. Nelson spilt time between Hillsboro and Amarillo two years ago, throwing 116.1 innings while averaging an impressive 12.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 22 starts. Last season, Nelson started 26 games for the Reno Aces, posting a solid 128-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 136.0 innings. Arizona called him up in early September for a three-game cameo. And like Jameson, he was brilliant. Nelson tossed 18.1 innings across three starts, tallying a tidy 1.47 ERA with 16 whiffs and six free passes.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, there have been nine hurlers that met the following criteria during their age-24 season in any Triple-A league (min. 100 IP): 20.5% to 22.5% strikeout percentage and a 7% to 9% walk percentage. Those nine hurlers: Jeff Locke, Gavin Floyd, Jeff Niemann, Cody Martin, Chris Schwinden, Jerad Eickhoff, P.J. Walter, Drey Jameson, and – of course – Ryne Nelson.

The former collegiate reliever has really separated himself from the club’s collection of high round, high octane hurlers in the system. Nelson still works exclusively from the stretch, but features a mid-rotation starter’s repertoire. Mid-90s, plus fastball. Above-average, upper 70s, 12-6 bending curveball. A lethal mid-80s slider. And a rare, average-ish changeup. Nelson’s fastball is lively, explosive, especially from his over-the-top release. But he’s too reliant on the offering and needs to do a better job changing speeds. The former 2019 second round pick has #4-type potential. And beyond Pfaadt, he’s the likeliest Arizona arm to reach his potential / ceiling. There may be more in the tank given his strictly relief background in college.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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9. Landon Sims, RHP

FB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
65	70	N/A	50	50

Background: A product of South Forsyth High School, Sims combined with 2021 first rounder Will Bednar to form the backbone of Mississippi State’s championship title run two years ago. The duo blanked the Vanderbilt Commodores on a combined one-hitter to capture the school’s first ever championship. Sims, a two-sport star during his prep career, was featured on countless clips on the internet for his intimidating mound presence and plus-plus fastball-slider combination. A burly 6-foot-2, 227-pound right-hander, Sims began his collegiate career in dominating fashion with the pandemic the only thing capable of slowing him down. In 13.0 innings of work out of Mississippi State’s pen, he struck out an impressive 23 and walked seven to go along with a 3.46 ERA. He followed it up with a crescendo of fireman brilliance in 2021. Making a career best 23 appearances, he averaged 16 strikeouts and just 2.4 walks per nine innings while tallying a 1.44 ERA. Last season the school converted the shutdown stopper into a full-time starting pitcher. And the results were magnificent – at least, momentarily. Sims posted a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 15.2 innings of work, along just two earned runs across his first three starts. After that, though, he would hit the disabled list with a wonky elbow, eventually succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Arizona took a calculated gamble and drafted him in the opening round, 34^th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2,347,050.

Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:

“Mid- to upper-90s fastball that Sims commands exceptionally well to both sides of the plate. The borderline plus-plus offering has tremendous late life and it’s practically unhittable up in the zone. He’ll complement the offering with the class’s top slider, unquestionably a plus-plus, elite breaking ball. He’ll also mix in a reportedly average changeup (I didn’t see one in 2022). Sims has the prototypical bulldog mentality and demeanor to be an elite big league closer a la Brian Wilson. And prior to the injury, he seemed to be on the precipice as a potential legitimate starting ace. Whichever team drafts the flame-throwing right-hander, the temptation to fast-track him to the big leagues (by putting him back in the bullpen) will be there. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Washington or Houston take a gamble on him.“

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2025

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10. A.J. Vukovich, 3B / OF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
40/45	50	55/40	45	50	50

Background: The 2020 draft class will be interesting to look back on in a decade or so. Not only because it was limited to just five rounds, but also because all the potential prospects had very little updated data / scouting reports due to the pandemic. One thing is certain, though: Baltimore and Arizona had their eyes on a pair of high profile, high upside high school third baseman late in the draft that year. Baltimore would snag Colby Mayo with the second over pick in the fourth round, and Arizona would choose A.J. Vukovich 16 selections later. Both third basemen would eventually command the two highest bonuses handed out in the fourth round that summer, $1.75 million and $1.25 million, respectively. A product of East Troy High School, Vukovich turned in an impressive debut two years ago as he slugged .272/.320/.446 in 92 games between Visalia and Hillsboro. The front office brass sent their big fourth round investment back down to Hillsboro for a longer, more extended look in 2022. And the 6-foot-5, 210-pound infielder / part-time outfielder maintained status quo. Appearing in 106 games with the Hops, the Wisconsin-born Vukovich slugged .274/.308/.451 with 26 doubles, two triples, 15 homeruns, and 35 stolen bases (in only 39 total attempts). Vukovich’s overall production in High-A, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 7%. He spent the final couple of weeks playing well in Double-A, going 13-for-44 with a pair of long balls.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 102 to 112 wRC+, a sub-5.0% walk rate, and a 22% to 25% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Alexfri Planez and A.J. Vukovich.

The young third baseman, who is now moonlighting as an outfielder, takes an aggressive approach at the plate. And while his K-rates haven’t been an issue, his lack of patience at the plate has severely limited his offensive production in the minors thus far. Vukovich has breezed through the low levels and acquitted himself nicely in a brief debut in Double-A – at the age of 20 – and he’s potentially positioned himself as a late season call up in 2023. Average hit tool, above-average power that he’s just beginning to tap into. Solid glove at third base or in the outfield. There’s some starting potential here. But the question is whether he can do enough to buoy his low walk rates.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.