School: Wake Forest University; Class: Junior
Position: RHP; B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2; Weight: 200
Previously Drafted: N/A
High School: North Stanly High School
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 55 |
Background: Surprisingly, or perhaps not, Wake Forest hasn’t produced a whole lot of notable – or valuable – big league talent in its history. Former second rounder Erik Hanson tops the list of most valuable former Demon Deacons, earning more than 20 Wins Above Replacement (BR) in his 11-year career. And then there’s a massive drop off. Mike MacDougal, the former hard-throwing reliever / closer, and crafty soft-tossing right-hander Dave Bush, both of whom tallied less than 4.0 WAR in their respective big league careers, ranks second and third on the list.
Beyond big league value, the ACC-based school hasn’t produced many early first rounders in their history either – just one Deacon, Kyle Sleeth, was taken among the top 10 picks in the midsummer draft.
Rhett Lowder could be poised to join Sleeth.
Lowder, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander, was a dynamo on the mound during his time at North Stanly High School. And if it wasn’t for COVID prematurely ending his senior season, Lowder may have heard his name called during the 2020 Draft. He would fan 27 hitters (against just one free pass) in only 13.2 innings during his final season.
Despite that, as well as being named the 12th best prospect in North Carolina, Lowder didn’t garner a whole lot of attention from large programs. He ended up choosing Wake Forest over smaller baseball schools like UNCW, Appalachian State, and Campbell.
But Lowder immediately flashed some serious upside as a freshman – despite an ERA bloated north of 6.00. He would average 10.4 punch outs and just 2.9 walks per nine innings across 12 starts and a pair of relief appearances. His sophomore season saw a major regression back to the norm on his ERA (3.08) as he continued to miss bats (9.5 K/9) and limit walks (2.4 BB/9).
But the native North Carolinian took the final step towards collegiate stardom during his junior campaign.
Through his first 17 starts, the big righty averaged 10.9 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings to go along with a dazzling 1.92 ERA and a perfect 15-and-0 record.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only six (6) ACC hurlers average fewer than 2.0 walks and more than 10.0 punch outs per nine innings in a season (min. 90 IP): Danny Hultzen, Tyler Wilson, Luke Weaver, Charlie Barnes, Parker Messick, and – of course – Rhett Lowder.
Very impressive three pitch mix: 93- to 94-mph, above-average fastball, a plus upper-80s slider, and an above-average power changeup sitting in the upper 80s. Not only does Lowder command the zone well, earning a plus grade, but he commands it well with all three pitches – which allows them to play up. He’s one of the safer picks in the college draft class, showing a high floor with the mid-level ceiling – something along the lines of a good #4-type hurler.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
Grade: First Round
