Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Jack Leiter, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50/55 | 70 |
Background: A surefire first round pick coming out of Delbarton School if not for his rock-solid commitment to Vanderbilt. With bloodlines that run deep – his father, of course, is two-time All-Star left-hander Al Leiter, and both his uncle and cousin player in the big leagues as well – the younger Leiter got off to a torrid start to his freshman campaign with Commodores in 2020: in four appearances, three of which were starts, the fireballing right-hander posted a 22-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15.2 innings of work for the SEC powerhouse. And that – truly – proved to be a harbinger of things to come. In his first start of the 2021 season, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound silky smooth hurler fanned eight and surrendered just one hit against Wright State near the end of February. And that string of dominance continued as he held opponents to just one earned run or fewer in each of his next seven starts – including games against Oklahoma State; a 16-strikeout, one walk no-hit affair against South Carolina, Missouri, LSU, and Georgia. Tennessee finally got to the burgeoning ace during his ninth start, plating three runs against him in 6.1 innings of work. Leiter was a bit shaky over his next two starts against Mississippi St. and Florida before righting the ship for four dominant starts against Ole Miss, Kentucky, Ole Miss (again), and Georgia Tech. Leiter ended the year with 18 starts, 110.0 innings of work, a whopping 179 strikeouts, 45 free passes, and a tidy 2.13 ERA. Texas drafted the collegiate ace with the second overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $7,922,000.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft analysis on Leiter:
“First things first, let’s dive into the numbers. Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of SEC pitchers to average at 12 strikeouts per nine innings (min. 75 IP): A.J. Puk, Casey Mize, Asa Lacy, Ethan Small, Zach Thompson, and Mason Hickman, who was the lone player chosen beyond the first round.
Leiter’s current strikeout rate, 14.8 K/9, is the best among the group. Now let’s expand to all Division I arms. Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of Division I hurlers to average at least 14 strikeouts every nine innings with a sub-4.0 walk rate (75IP): Drey Jameson, Ethan Small, and Noah Song.
Again, Leiter production belongs in the group. Prior to the 2019, here’s a snippet of the scouting report I put together for the young righty:
“Polished and poised well beyond his years – something to be expected for a ballplayer coming from a lineage of big leaguers. Leiter attacks hitters with a low-90s fastball that he generally commands well. But it’s his pair of secondary offerings – a hellacious 12-6, knee-buckling curveball and an above-average slider – that easily separates him from his peers. The curveball, a mid- to upper-70s offering, is one of the better breaking balls in the entire draft class. He’ll also mix in a fringy low-80s changeup that shows average potential.”
So let’s update that a bit, shall we?
Leiter’s heater has moved from an above-average to plus offering, going from the low 90s to sitting in the mid-90s and touching triple digits on occasion. His curveball is still one hellacious knee-buckler, the slider is a firm above-average offering. And his changeup has bumped up into the 55-grade territory. Perhaps the most impressive part about Leiter: I watched his early season dominant no-hitter, and he was essentially just using his fastball. He has a chance to be a dominant ace, along the lines of a Max Scherzer, if the command ticks up. I would expect him to be in the big leagues by end of 2022 for a September cup of coffee.”
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Josh Jung, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: There’s going to be quite the rivalry in the Jung household come midseason 2022. Josh’s younger brother, Jace, who also attends Texas Tech, might usurp his lofty draft status. Josh was the eighth overall player chosen in 2019. And Jace is a potential #1 overall pick after his dominating 2021 season. As for his part, the elder Jung is living up to – and perhaps even exceeding – his draft expectations. Splitting time between Frisco and Round Rock last year, the 6-foot-2, 214-pound third baseman slugged a scorching .326/.398/.592 with 22 doubles, one triple, and 19 homeruns. He also stole a pair of bags for good measure as well. His overall production for the year topped the league average mark by a whopping 52%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, which was tied for the 21st best mark among all hitters with at least 300 PAs.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: At his peak, he looks like a .280/.340/.480 type hitter [of big league hitter].
Scouting Report: Jung got off to a late start to the year – he didn’t play his first game until June – so his time at each level was exceptionally long: he appeared in just 43 games in Double-A and 35 games in Triple-A. But the production, though, remained among the best in professional baseball. Solid patience at the plate. Above-average thump combined with strong contact skills. However, per FanGraphs data, Jung’s average exit velocity was pedestrian 87 mph. The .280/.340/480-type ceiling is still tracking.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Cole Winn, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Sandwiched in between a pair of more recognizable pitchers in the middle of the first round four years later. Winn, the 15th overall pick, was taken one pick after Logan Gilbert and before Matthew Liberatore. Despite a lesser known name among casual fans, Winn’s quietly establishing himself as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. After holding his own as a 19-year-old in Low-A in 2019, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound right-hander ripped through the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, for 19 starts before finishing off his dominant season with a pair of games in AAA. In total, he logged 86.0 innings, striking out 107 and walking just 31.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Given the emphasis on his changeup, as well as his 55-grade control/command, I’d expect Crouse’s strikeout percentage to leap several degrees in 2020. Again, there’s some potential #3 caliber status here.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old Double-A arms to post a strikeout percentage of at least 30% with a walk percentage less than 9% in a season (min. 75 IP): Grayson Rodriguez and Cole Winn. That’s it.
- Let’s take it one step further: here’s the list of 21-year-old Double-A pitchers to strikeout out at least 32% of the hitters they faced in season (min. 75 IP): Grayson Rodriguez and Cole Winn.
Plus fastball and changeup combination – which would be enough to guarantee him a spot at the back of a rotation – but Winn mixes in two above-average breaking balls as well. His power slider shows late downward tilt that he locates low-and-away from right-handers exceptionally well. And he’ll flash a 55-grade 12-6 yacker of a curveball too. He’s still refining his command, but it’s taken several leaps forward. He’s going to be a #3-type guy with some potential to uptick if the command continues to improve.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Luisangel Acuna, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Ron Acuna was never a serious big league prospect. Sure, he finished with a nice enough, batting average-inflated MiLB slash line (.282/.330/.364), but he never really flashed enough loud tools to really turn heads. Ron’s son, Ronald, however, is a different story. And Ron’s younger son, Luisangel – who is sometimes known as Jose – is tracking as a better prospect than his old man too. The Rangers signed the younger Acuna for a rather sizeable deal, $425,000, during the 2018 signing period and sent him to the Dominican Summer League the following season. And he ripped through the league’s pitching like a shark’s fin in water: in 51 games, the 5-foot-10, 181-pound middle infielder slugged .342/.438/.455 with 11 doubles, three triples, and a pair of dingers. Last season, the front office aggressively challenged the then-19-year-old by pushing him straight into Low-A. And the results were…promising. In 111 games with the Down East Wood Ducks, Acuna the Younger batted .266/.345/.404 with 15 doubles, three triples, 12 homeruns, and 44 stolen bases (in 55 attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 5%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2011, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 100 and 110 with a walk rate between 9% and 12% and a strikeout rate between 22% and 24% (min. 400 PA): Joe Benson, Daryl Jones, and Luisangel Acuna.
While the production comparisons don’t offer up a ton a ton of future hope – Benson was once a Top 100 prospect and Jones appeared in the 2009 Futures Games – Acuna’s ceiling is considerably higher. After starting the year off on a sour note (he hit a paltry .165/.280/.291 over his first 22 games), Acuna slugged a healthy .281/.354/.406 over his remaining 94 contests. There’s the potential for an above-average hit tool, plus speed, and 15- to 20-homerun pop from a middle infield position.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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5. Justin Foscue, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 40 | 45 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Mississippi State threw a ton of at bats at Foscue during his freshman season in 2018, allowing the then-19-year-old to walk up to the plate 216 times – even though the results were modest, at best. But Foscue’s offensive production exploded during his sophomore campaign with the SEC powerhouse, slugging .331/.395/.564 with 22 doubles and 14 long balls. And he maintained status quo for his 16-game, pre-COVID shutdown campaign the following year as well. Texas would eventually expend the 14th pick in the draft on the second baseman. Foscue made his professional debut last season, hitting an aggregate .275/.371/.590 with 19 doubles, one triple, and 17 homeruns in just 62 games during his injury-marred year.
Scouting Report: Like his counterpart Josh Jung, Foscue didn’t come close to logging a full season of action in 2021. But just for fun, here’s Foscue’s stats prorated for a full 162-game season: 50 doubles, three triples, and 44 homeruns. Not too shabby… On the other hand, the majority of Foscue’s production occurred during his 33-game stint with Hickory in High-A and his numbers took a noticeable downward turn in Double-A as well. Foscue is a quasi-hybrid of the Rangers’ Nick Solak and Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe. Expect Foscue to be a .270/.330/.450-type of bat.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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6. Aaron Zavala, 3B/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 40/45 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Highly decorated coming out of South Salem High School, Zavala was named: Oregon 6A Player of the Year in 2018, USA Today’s All-USA Oregon Team, and Greater Valley Conference Player of the Year. The 6-foot, 193-pound infielder/outfielder looked comfortable in the box for the Pac12 powerhouse during his true freshman season in 2019: he batted .273/.356/.338 with nine doubles and a pair of stolen bases in 43 games. The lefty-swinging Zavala’s production took a massive leap forward during his COVID-shortened campaign the following year, slugging .418/.493/.491 in 15 games for the Ducks. And the OBP Machine carried that momentum over into a career 2021 season. Appearing in 55 games, Zavala slugged .392/.525/.628 with 14 doubles, three triples, nine homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. He finished the year with an impressive 31-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Texas snagged him in the second round, 38th overall, and signed him to a well below-slot deal worth $830,000. Zavala appeared in 22 games with the club’s Arizona Complex League and Low-A squads, hitting an aggregate .293/.419/.400.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of Pac12 hitters to slug at least .380/.500/.600 in a season (min. 200 PA): Adley Rutschman (twice) and Andrew Vaughn (twice).
Zavala, of course, met the aforementioned criteria during his under-the-radar dominant 2021 season. An on-base machine that can play a couple positions, run a bit, and flash average-ish power. Sounds like a promising big league prospect. Zavala’s a little miscast as a right fielder because he doesn’t have the traditional thump, but could carve out a career as a super-utility guy. Good arm. Lightning quick bat that’s geared towards line drives and plenty of doubles. There’s some Adam Eaton to Zavala’s game.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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7. Evan Carter, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45/50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Elizabethton High School has been home to exactly two professional ballplayers: Ricky Carriger, a right-hander taken by the Braves in the 11th round of the 1975 draft, and Evan Carter, a center fielder selected by the Rangers in the second round two years ago. Handed a hefty $1.25 million deal, Carter made his professional debut with the Down East Wood Ducks in Low-A. In an injury-shortened season, Carter batted an OBP-driven .236/.438/.387 with eight doubles, one triple, two homeruns, and 12 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 38%. A back injury cropped up and prematurely ended his season in mid-June.
Scouting Report: Just for fun, here’s Carter’s numbers prorated for a full 162-game season: 41 doubles, five triples, 10 homeruns, and 61 stolen bases. Yeah…that’ll play, kid. Carter has a little Brandon Nimmo in him – both owning incredible patience at the plate. The Rangers’ young center fielder walked in more than 23% of his plate appearances and posted a sub-20% K-rate as well. It’s an aggressive statement but Carter could find his way into the Top 100 as early as 2023.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Ezequiel Duran, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 |
Background: It was a tough pill to swallow, not only for Joey Gallo but also for Rangers fans, when the club sent the long time fan favorite to the Yankees for a package of four minor leaguers: Ezequiel Duran, Glenn Otto, Josh Smith, and Trevor Hauver near the trade deadline last July. Texas also included Joely Rodriguez to complete swap. Hailing from San Juan de la Manguana, Dominican Republic, the offensive-minded infielder began to open eyes as a 20-year-old playing for Staten Island three years ago: he slugged .256/.329/.496 with 12 doubles, four triples, and 13 homeruns for New York’s short-season affiliate. Duran spent the entirety of last year in High-A, hitting an aggregate .267/.342/.486 with 22 doubles, six triples, 19 homeruns, and 19 stolen bases between both organizations’ affiliates. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 18%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: In terms of ceiling, he looks like a late career Ian Kinsler.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old High-A hitters met the following criteria in a season (min. 400 PA): wRC+ total between 113 and 123, a strikeout rate north of 27%, and a sub-10% walk rate. Those four hitters: Jesse Franklin, Taylor Sparks, Ibandel Isabel, and – of course – Mr. Ezequiel Duran.
Similar to current Rangers prospect Bubba Thompson in a lot of ways. Duran flashes an impressive combination of power and speed from an up-the-middle position, but it’s hampered by his problematic contact issues. The silver lining: when he does make contact it’s typical loud and hard. Per FanGraphs data, Duran’s average exit velocity was an impressive 92 mph with a peak of 109 mph. And to put that into terms: top prospects like Bobby Witt Jr., Marco Luciano, Julio Rodriguez, and Joey Bart showcased the same average and peak exit velocities as well. Duran’s a boom-bust guy. And there’s really no in between either. Double-A in 2022 will likely determine which path he’s headed down.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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9. Thomas Saggese, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: California-basedCarlsbad High School can claim that seven of their alums have made it to professional ranks, and two of those players even played in the big leagues: four-time All-Star third baseman Troy Glaus and 11-year veteran Greg Dobbs. The school’s most recent alum, Thomas Saggese, may add his name to the big league list as well. Unearthed in the fifth – and final – round of the 2020 draft, the Rangers handed the twitchy infielder an $800,000 bonus – the fourth highest for any player chosen that round. Despite no minor league season that year, the Rangers aggressively pushed the mid-round pick straight up to Low-A last season to begin his career. And it was totally the right move. Appearing in 73 games with the Down East Wood Ducks, Saggese slugged a hearty .256/.372/.463 with 14 doubles, three triples, 10 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 27% better than the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters in Low-A met the following criteria in a season (min. 250 PA): wRC+ between 122 and 132, a walk rate of at least 10% and a strikeout rate greater than 27%. Those four hitters: Khalil Lee, Braxton Davidson, Alex De Jesus, and Thomas Saggese.
The 29% k-rate is concerning, yes, but let’s take a look at his production. During the first 30 games of his 2021 season – and remember he didn’t play much in high school or any in pro ball last season due to COVID – Saggese batted a lowly .217/.327/.413 with a hefty 38% punch out rate. Beginning on July 15th through the end of the year he slugged .287/.394/.509 while whiffing in just a quarter of his plate appearances. I’m betting big on the latter numbers. There’s some low end starting potential here, but it’s years away.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Owen White, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The Rangers went with highly touted high school arms with their first two selections in the 2018 draft, first taking Cole Winn with the 15th overall pick then snagging White 40 selections later. Unfortunately for White, he’s on the Cole Ragans development path. White missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Then he had to sit out the following year due to the COVID shutdown. And then he missed the majority of last season due to a fractured hand. The 6-foot-3, 199-pound right-hander made eight starts with Down East in Low-A, averaging an impressive 14.6 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He made an additional four starts with the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League as well, posting a 19-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.1 innings of work.
Scouting Report: If you really think about it, prior to White’s debut in 2021 his last meaningful baseball game was played three years earlier – as a high school kid. And despite the long layoff, his feel for the strike zone was surprisingly sound. He attacks hitters with a straight mid-90s fastball, an above-average curveball, and a changeup that requires work. There’s some reliever risk given his lack of a solid third option. It’s important to remember his lack of development time. If the changeup ticks up to average White looks like a backend innings gobbler.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
