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1. Jackson Merrill, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 40/55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: With the parent club in a perpetual state of “win now”, the Padres’ once overflowing farm system is now fairly barren – sans one Samuel Zavala and one young shortstop Enter: Jackson Merrill. Taken during the shortstop-heavy first round of the 2021 draft, Merrill was the ninth of 11 total selections at the position in the opening round. A year later, though, the Severna Park High School product is making the argument as one of the better shortstop prospects in the entire game. Swinging from the left side, Merrill turned in a solid debut with San Diego’s Complex League affiliate two years ago, batting .280/.339/.383 with seven doubles, two triples, and five stolen bases (in six attempts). And his sophomore campaign began in similar fashion. Merrill opened the season up with Lake Elsinore, going 2-for-6 and was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball through the first few weeks of the season (.393/.452/.518). But a freak injury – termed an avulsion fracture in his wrist – knocked him out of commission and he wouldn’t pop back up with the Storm until three months later. An avulsion fracture, by the way, is described as a small piece of bone, which is attached to a tendon / ligament, breaks away from the large part of the bone. Merrill’s incident happened as his wrist was caught in an opposing player’s jersey. Finally healthy in late July, the former first rounder mashed an impressive .335/.397/.513 over his final 35 games. In total, Merrill batted .325/.370/.482 with 10 doubles, three triples, five homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in 13 attempts) during his time with Lake Elsinore.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Low-A league (min. 200 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, an 18% to 21% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% to 9.5% walk rate. Those two hitters: Andrew McCutchen, who’s closing out the tail end of his Hall of Very Good career, and – of course – Jackson Merrill.
Filling in the role that former top prospect C.J. Abrams once held: a talented, young shortstop with the potential for a plus hit tool, though Merrill offers up better power potential and glove. The lefty-swinging Merrill doesn’t show any major platoon splits, as well. Slightly open stance with a picture-esque swing, the young shortstop is only beginning to tap into his above-average in-game power. There’s a chance he could peak in the 20- to 25-HR range. In terms of big league ceiling, think .310/.380/.460.
Ceiling: 5.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Samuel Zavala, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 35/55 | 35/55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: San Diego inked the then-16-year-old outfielder to a hefty $1.2 million deal in mid-January 2021. Less than two years later the dynamic Venezuelan has already earned a long look at Low-A arms. Standing at 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, Zavala debuted with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate just months after joining the organization, batting an impressive .297/.400/.487 with 16 doubles, six triples, three homeruns, and 11 stolen bases in only 55 games. Last season, the front office took the cautious approach – at least temporarily – and sent the young centerfielder to the Complex League. But that stint lasted just 10 games before he was shoved up to full season action for the remainder of the year. Zavala hit a scorching .345/.412/.621 during his limited time in the Complex League. He followed that up with an impressive .254/.355/.508 line with six doubles, two triples, and seven homeruns in Low-A. His production with the Storm, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 18%. He finished the year with an aggregate .272/.366/.530 mark.
Scouting Report: Yes, the sample size is too small to be reliable but – what the hell? – let’s have some fun. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only fourteen 17-year-old hitters accrued at least 125 plate appearances in any Low-A league. Zavala’s overall production, 118 wRC+, was the third best among the group – trailing only Fernando Martinez and Jose Tabata, both of whom were consensus Top 100 prospects for multiple years.
Big leg kick, a la late career Daryl Strawberry, Zavala is looking to do three things in each at bat:
- #1. Hit the ball hard.
- #2. Hit the ball in the air.
- #3. Pull the ball.
Big time power potential that easily will turn into plus in-game power. Zavala turned on an offspeed pitch from sidewinding lefty Liu Fuenmayor that was easily six inches inside and kept his hands inside enough to hit a titanic dinger in late August. Zavala battled some swing-and-miss issues during his stint in Low-A, though it’s not concerning given his age and level of competition. Patient approach. Throw in some above-average defense at a premium position and it’s clear that Zavala is primed to become a contender for Top Prospect in all of baseball (even if he will eventually move into a corner position). Big league ceiling: .280/.370/.580.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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#3 Dylan Lesko, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 70 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Buford High School is no stranger to quality big league prospects. Such luminaries like Joey Bart and Brandon Marsh, both consensus Top 100 prospects during their professional careers, have walked through the school’s hallowed halls. Connor Bennett, a 34th round pick by the Reds in 2015, and Jake Burnette, a seventh-round pick by the Pirates in 2011, earned hefty six-figure bonuses as well. Dylan Lesko, a firebolt-slinging right-hander, became the earliest drafted player in school history, as well as easily surpassing Brandon Marsh’s $1 million bonus too – despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in late-April. And there’s good reason why. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound right-hander rocketed up into a separate stratosphere during his junior campaign, posting a barely-there 0.35 ERA with a videogame-esque 112 punch outs in only 60 innings of work. He finished the year with a perfect 11-0 record en route to capturing the Gatorade Player of the Year award, the first time a junior had done so. The big righty was committed to Pitcher University – a.k.a. Vanderbilt University. But the Padres had other plans, selecting him with the 15th overall pick last July, signing him to a massive $3.9 million deal.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Prior to the Tommy John surgery, Lesko owned an electric arsenal – perhaps tops in the country among amateurs. Mid-90s fastball with explosion, sitting in the 93- to 95-mph range. He’ll complement the plus offering with an above-average, upper 70s curveball, though it showed some slurvy tendencies at times. His third pitch, a wickedly devastating changeup, may be the best in the country. Sitting in the low-80s with hard tumble and fade, it’s a genuine swing-and-miss pitch. Lesko commands the zone well – with all three pitchers. There’s #2-type potential. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Mets use one of their two first round picks on the hard-throwing, recovering teenager.”
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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4. Robby Snelling, LHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: An All-America boy cut from the cloth of yesteryear. Snelling, seemingly, did everything during his time at McQueen High School. The big southpaw left his head baseball coach Brian Nelson spewing every conceivable positive adjective, according to the Nevada SportsNet (dated 06/03/2022): “Robby Snelling’s work ethic is truly amazing. His composure on the mound is very impressive. He strives to be the best and he always leads by example. He is truly wise beyond his years and I couldn’t be prouder of his maturity and growth as a young man.” His grades are perfect, maintaining a GPA of 4.26. An outside linebacker, Snelling captured Northern Nevada’s large-class football player of the year. And he capped off his impressive prep resume in big fashion on the diamond. Snelling posted a perfect 8-0 win-loss record, tallying a tidy 0.56 ERA while fanning an unfathomable 146 strikeouts in just 62.1 innings of work – a Nevada single-season state record. For those counting at home: more than 78% of the outs while he was pitching were strikeouts. Snelling was committed to collegiate powerhouse Louisiana State University prior to the Friars selecting him with the final pick in the first round last July, signing him to a deal worth an even $3 million.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Big tree trunk legs, like he was crafted in the left-handed likeness of Tom Seaver. Supremely athletic, but maxed out physically. Snelling, unlike former top prospect Hunter Greene, won’t be gaining much bulk in the early stages of his professional career. He already has the build of a ten-year veteran power pitcher. Bulldog mentality. Low- to mid-90s above-average fastball. His curveball can get slurvy at times, but shows some late tilt, movement. He’s incredibly confident in throwing the breaking ball at any point. Average changeup. There’s some Mike Hampton-type potential.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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5. Eguy Rosario, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 45 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: One of the San Diego’s more slowly developing prospects. Rosario, who’s been a part of the organization since 2015, had a spectacular debut showing in the Dominican Summer League a year later, mashing .346/.423/.472 in 53 games and he continued to swing a hot stick during his seven game cameo in the stateside rookie league as well. Then his bat cooled significantly over the next two seasons. The Dominican-born infielder cobbled together a disappointing .206/.296/.278 across 50 games in the Midwest League before getting demoted – though he did rebound during his stint in the Arizona Summer League (.282/.363/.422). The following season, 2018, Rosario was pushed up to High-A and, well, the results were atrocious. He hit .239/.307/.363. And, for some reason, the club bounced the struggling youngster up to Double-A for a three-game cameo; he promptly went 2-for-11 with five strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, Rosario found himself back in High-A to start the 2019 season. And – finally – his bat showed some signs of life. He hit .278/.331/.412 across 122 games with Lake Elsinore. From that point on Rosario’s production has remained a steady constant. He slugged .281/.360/.455 in 114 games against the minors’ challenging environment – Double-A. Last season the 5-foot-9, 150-pound infielder moved up to the final stop in the minors, posting .288/.368/.508 with career bests in doubles (34) and homeruns (22) to go along with four triples and 21 stolen bases. His overall production with the El Paso Chihuahuas, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 16%. Rosario also squeezed in seven games with San Diego, too, going 1-for-5.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Triple-A (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, 9.5% to 11.5% walk rate, and an 18% to 20% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Ian Stewart, Daniel Robertson, Wladimir Balentin, and – of course – Eguy Rosario.
Thick lower half. Crouched stance, slightly open. Rosario’s surge in homeruns also happens to coincide with spending half of his time planning in El Paso’s bandbox of a stadium. He hit .336/.414/.594 with 13 homeruns in 66 home games. And he batted .239/.322/.416 with nine homeruns in 66 road games. San Diego’s been grooming him as potential utility option, bouncing him between second base, shortstop, and third base – a trend that continued last year.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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6. Victor Lizarraga, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50/55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: San Diego signed the California-born right-hander on the international free agency market early in 2021, handing the 6-foot-3, 180-pound right-hander a hefty $1 million deal. Lizarraga made his debut with the club’s Complex League affiliate a few weeks later, making 11 starts while averaging 10.5 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings. Last season, the talented youngster made the move up to full season action, showing promise against the significantly older competition. Making 19 starts and one relief appearance, Lizarraga tossed 94.1 innings, recording 95 punch outs and 34 walks. He finished the year with a 3.43 ERA, a 4.19 FIP, and a 4.96 xFIP. For his career, the lanky righty is averaging 9.4 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only twenty-six 18-year-old hurlers have thrown at least 75 innings in any Low-A league. Of those 26, only two posted a strikeout percentage between 22.5% to 24.5% and a walk percentage between 7.5% to 9.5%. Those two hurlers: Bryan Mata and Victor Lizarraga.
Significantly better than his debut showing, particularly late last season. Lizarraga’s fastball seemed to grow some legs over the past year, easily blowing it by several hitters late in the game. His curveball went from flashing a 55-grade to consistently showing above-average depth and shape. And his changeup, which I didn’t see in 2021, showed some promise as a potential third above-average weapon. It’s firm with a little bit of arm side run, but it caught several hitters out on their front foot. Lizarraga’s drifting in that quasi-starter territory, showing some traits as a potential backend arm but a lot of his success now is coming from his pitchability / guile.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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7. Adam Mazur, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: For a brief moment in time, Woodbury High School, tucked away on the outskirts of Minneapolis, had two prominent ballplayers walking through their hallowed halls. Max Meyer, a 34th round pick by the Twins in 2017, would head to the University of Minnesota and three years later become the third overall pick in the draft. And Adam Mazur, a much less heralded hurler coming out high school, spent two years at South Dakota State before transferring to Iowa and eventually becoming a second round pick in 2022. Standing a wiry 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, Mazur was limited to just four starts during the COVID-impacted 2020 season at South Dakota State, throwing 20.1 innings with 18 strikeouts, 12 walks, and a 5.75 ERA. His sophomore campaign was much the same as well, posting an 88-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68.0 innings across 12 starts. But things seemed to click for Mazur that summer, though, and he found his groove in the Cape Cod League. Making six – mostly dominant – starts with the Wareham Gatemen, the right-hander averaged 10.6 strikeouts and just 1.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a 1.55 ERA. And after transferring to the University of Iowa, he was able to carry that momentum into earning Big 10 Pitcher of the Year in 2022. Mazur would cap off his collegiate career by averaging 9.4 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings in 15 starts for the Hawkeyes, winning seven and losing just three times. He signed with the Padres for $1.25 million as the 53rd overall pick.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2015, six Division I pitchers have averaged between 9.3 and 9.6 strikeouts and 2.75 and 3.25 walks per nine innings in a season (min. 90 IP): Kris Bubic, Konnor Pilkington, Connor Noland, Brendan White, Jared Reklaitis, and – of course – Adam Mazur.
Crafty right-hander that was able to hone in on the strike zone after two mostly disappointing seasons at South Dakota State University. Mazur features a standard four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. The wiry right-hander’s above-average fastball sits in the low 90s, touching a couple ticks higher at times. His frame size may limit his ability to consistently touch the mid-90s as he moves into the rigors of professional ball. His best secondary weapon is a genuine swing-and-miss slider, easily a plus pitch. He’ll also mix in an average curveball and changeup. Mazur’s more of a strike-thrower rather than a command guy. He’s the type that will dominate the low levels quickly, before struggling – maybe temporarily – in the mid-levels of the minor leagues. #5-type arm. I had a late second / early third round grade on him.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Henry Williams, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Background: Each team sets a level of risk that they’re willing to go up to, but not surpass for every decision – free agency, trades, and – of course, the draft. And one has to wonder just how high that bar was last July when they selected talented, yet injury plagued right-hander Henry Williams in the third round, 91st overall, and signed him to an $800,000. An unheralded prospect coming out of Darien High School, Williams made just one – disastrous – start during his 2020 season, throwing just two-thirds of an inning, allowing one run and walking three. Then COVID cancelled the rest of the year .The 6-foot-5, 200-pound righty opened his sophomore season up as Duke’s Saturday starter. And he began the year on a tear. He struck out 45, walked just 10, and tallied a 3.65 ERA across 37.0 innings of work. But an injury – termed as “tightness” – forced him out the remainder of the year. Then he would succumb to Tommy John surgery during the winter and miss the entirety of 2022. Still, though, the Padres saw enough and took the third round plunge.
Scouting Report: During an interview with Scott Ericson (CT Insider), Williams remarked that the Padres were one of just three teams interested in him coming out of high school – so it’s not overly surprising, per se, that the Friars took the risk of drafting the little used hurler last July. According to reports, Williams was featuring a mid-90s fastball, a solid, sometimes plus slider, and a decent changeup. He’s now entering nearly two full years without logging any mound time, so it’ll be interesting to see what he’s bringing to the party.
Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell
Risk: Too Soon to Tell
MLB ETA: N/A
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9. Efrain Contreras, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 40/45 | 45 |
Background: A solid, under-the-radar signing out of Ciudad de Juarez, Mexico, five years ago. San Diego added the talented, stout right-hander to their farm system on a $50,000 deal. Contreras wouldn’t make his professional debut until the following season, 2018, but blitzed through three levels, going from foreign rookie league to the stateside rookie league, and settling in for a pair of games in the old Northwest League. Contreras continued to show promise – despite his aggressive assignments – and averaged a noteworthy 9.9 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings across 23 starts and a pair of relief outings with Fort Wayne in 2019. But his right elbow flared up during the 2020 COVID season and he eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery and knocked him out for the entirety of 2021. Finally healthy last year, Contreras made 17 starts in High-A, throwing 53.1 innings with 64 strikeouts and 25 free passes. He finished his comeback season with a 5.74 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and a 4.35 xFIP. The 5-foot-10, 225-pound righty also made another five appearances with Peoria in the Arizona Fall League as well, averaging 7.9 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings.
Scouting Report: Portly. Contreras’ waistline continues to expand. During his 2019 season the young 5-foot-10 right-hander was weighing 210 pounds. Last season, though, he was tipping the scales at a hefty 225 pounds. Contreras shows an above-average, low-90s heater, a plus curveball, and an average changeup. His curveball’s particularly wicked, showing plenty hard downward bite. There’s some backend starting potential, but he’s going to prove his command will return and that he can take the ball consistently every fifth day.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Daniel Montesino, 1B / OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 30/50 | 45/55 | 50/40 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: One of the club’s big signings on the international scene two years ago. The Padres signed Montesino to hefty seven-figure deal, making the then-16-year-old an instant millionaire. The wiry, yet strong first baseman / corner outfielder turned in a dynamic showing in the Dominican Summer League. He mashed .316/.444/.490 with 13 doubles, four triples, four homeruns, and eight stolen bases. His overall production in the foreign rookie league, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a herculean 60%. He missed the entirety of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Scouting Report: Since Montesino missed the entirety of last season, here’s his scouting report heading into 2022:
“Montesino just looks like a future run producer at the big league level. Lean but muscular. Well-built but not stocky. The Venezuelan first baseman / corner outfielder shows almost a picture-esque left-handed stroke. Plenty of bat speed. Good natural loft. Montesino already began tapping into his above-average, maybe even plus-power potential in the Dominican Summer League. His bat and pop will have to carry him through the minor leagues, because he won’t be providing any value on the defensive side of the ball.”
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
