Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Austin Martin, SS/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 40/45 | 50 | 65 | 45/55 | 60 |
Background: It was a deal that didn’t seem like a possibility heading into the season last year. Minnesota was coming off of back-to-back playoff appearances. The organization had several players finish high in the 2020 awards, including: Nelson Cruz coming in sixth in the MVP award voting, Kenta Maeda was the Cy Young runner-up, and after winning the AL Manager of the Year in 2019, Rocco Baldelli finished in the top 5 a year later. Yet, almost unimaginably the Twins faltered, fell out of the playoff race and were forced to deal away some of the team’s veterans – and fan favorites – as the trade deadline approached. Minnesota acquired young right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin from Toronto for All-Star right-hander Jose Berrios, who would eventually sign a mega-deal with his new team. Martin, the fifth overall pick and the second bat taken in the 2020 draft, was a dynamic sparkplug for one of the premier collegiate programs in the country, Vanderbilt University. The shortstop/center fielder left the school with a .368/.474/.532 triple-slash line. Last year, his professional debut, the 6-foot, 185-pound hitter spent the season with both organization’s Double-A affiliates, hitting an aggregate .270/.414/.382 with 18 doubles, two triples, five homeruns, and 14 stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by an impressive 28% – not bad for a debut showing in the minors’ most challenging level.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three Double-A hitters met the following criteria in a season with one organization (min. 350 PA): 123 to 133 wRC+ total, a walk rate of at least 12%, and a strikeout rate between 19% and 22%. Those three hitters: Alex Avila, Michael Reed, and Charcer Burks. Martin’s production places him squarely among the group, as well.
Just one season into his career, barely removed from being considered one of the best amateur bats in the country, Martin has seemingly gathered a small – or perhaps not so small – faction of doubters. His defensive position seems to be a bit unsettled, as he continues to split time between shortstop and center fielder; he’s striking out more frequently than many thought; and, of course, he’s not flashing a ton of power. So let’s break it down point-by-point:
- According to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, Martin’s graded out as slightly below average at shortstop and slightly above-average at center field. Personally, he’s probably more valuable at shortstop and isn’t that far away from being a solid defender.
- He’s fanned in 19.9% of his plate appearances. So? Who gives a shit? We live in a time where teams live with 30+% K-rates. And he closed out the year by whiffing only five times in his final 16 games. Plus, let’s not forget he went from an abbreviated college season to a delayed debut and right into the most challenging level in minor league baseball. So, again, who gives a shit? It’s less than 20%.
- He’s never going to be a 20-homer guy. But I’m confident he’s going to top out around 12- to 15-dingers in a full season. His average exit velocity, per FanGraphs, was a stellar 90 mph.
Martin may never be a star. But he’s going to be a very good player on a championship caliber team.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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2. Jordan Balazovic, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: A tremendous find, as well as a tremendous job by the organization’s player development program. The club drafted the 6-foot-5, 215-pound right-hander out of St. Martin SS prep school, located in Mississauga, Ontario, in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. Since then Balazovic has moved through the organization’s minor league chain like a shark’s fin through water. Last season the then-22-year-old hurler spent the entirety of the year battling – and impressing – in the minor’s most challenging level, Double-A. In a career high 20 starts, Balazovic tossed 97.0 innings, averaging 9.5 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He finished his fifth professional season with a 3.62 ERA, 3.91 FIP, and a 4.28 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: After his phenomenal showing in 2019, Balazovic’s ceiling now resides – comfortably – in the #3-type starting pitcher.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 90 IP): 23% to 25% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 8% and 10%. Those five hurlers: Zack Wheeler, Jordan Zimmerman, Wily Peralta, Jorge Lopez, and – of course – Mr. Jordan Balazovic.
- For those counting at home: Per FanGraphs, Wheeler’s tallied more than 21 wins above replacement in his career, Jordan Zimmerman was worth more than 25 WAR in his career, and both Peralta and Lopez have had long, slightly above replacement level careers.
I noted in the 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook that Balazovic was the prospect I most looked forward to scouting. And nothing changed over the past two years either – except the fact that he’s gotten better. Plus mid-90s fastball. Hellacious, knee-buckling curveball. An average, late moving slider. And a split-change that’s really, really come along way, moving from average to above. There’s some genuine #2-type potential. And I think the command actually creeps into above-average territory at some point as well.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Jose Miranda, IF/OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 35 | 45+ | 50 | 60 |
Background: Fun fact Part I: across all affiliated minor league levels, there were 377 hitters that received at least 400 plate appearances last season. Fun Fact Part II: Of those 377 qualified hitters, Miranda’s total production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was ranked as the fourth highest – at 58% above the league average level. Needless to say, the defensive vagabond had quite the showing in 2021. Splitting time between Wichita and St. Paul, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound infielder – and sometimes outfielder – slugged a robust .344/.401/.572 with career highs in doubles (32) and homeruns (30). He also finished the season with a solid 74-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio as well.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three hitters have met the following criteria in a Triple-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): a total wRC+ of at least 150 wRC+ with a sub-17% strikeout rate. Those three hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Adam Eaton, and, of course, Mr. Jose Miranda.
- For those counting at home: Nimmo’s been 26% better than the league average offensive line during his career and Eaton’s topped the threshold by 9%, as well.
Not bad comps. The batted ball data, according to FanGraphs, is average. And Miranda certainly benefited from spending half the year at two different hitter-friendly confines; though he did bat a hearty .330/.389/.564 on the road. The power’s a completely new skill – and one that is typically the last to develop. I watched all of Miranda’s homeruns. And I’m convinced the power is legit. He was mashing some absolute bombs – all around the diamond. He uncorked an opposite field shot that looked like a jam-job against a St. Louis affiliate that might not have landed. His batted ball profile hasn’t changed dramatically, so it’ll be interesting to see how big leaguers pitch him. But Miranda’s one of the most – if not the most – underrated prospect in the baseball.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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4. Royce Lewis, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/55 | 45/55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: It’s been a rough couple of seasons for the former top pick. Taken with the first overall selection in the 2017 draft, the JSerra Catholic High School product battled through an absurdly disappointing 2019 season in which he hit a disappointing .238/.289/.376 in 94 games in High-A and continued to flounder after the club promoted him up to Double-A as well . He finished the year with a .236/.290/.371 slash line – though he did rebound during his 22-game stint in the Arizona Fall League. Lewis, like all minor leaguers not on the taxi squad, lost a season of develop as the country reared from the pandemic. And then the 6-foot-2, 200-pound tools-laden shortstop missed the entirety of 2021 as he recovered from a torn ACL in his right knee. The injury, according to reports at the time, say it’s unclear on how exactly it happened. Per an article by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, “the injury only presented as slight soreness in the knee until Lewis underwent an MRI exam as part of a physical at Spring Training.” Assuming the minor league season starts on time, the duration between his last stint in the Arizona Fall League will be roughly 950 days earlier.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The problem isn’t necessarily his swing, per se. It’s this massive leg kick that’s creating issues. Sometimes he’s late getting his foot down. Sometimes it seems as if his weight is leaning too forward. It’s just…bad. I went back and watched old tape from 2018. The leg kick was still prevalent. But the competition of his talent was such that he was able to succeed in spite of it. Lewis possesses the intangibles that made him the top pick in the draft. I think he needs to alter his lower half, rather than the whole swing.
Scouting Report: There’s – literally – nothing to report on at this point. Hopefully Lewis’ recovery doesn’t impede any of his explosiveness.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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5. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 |
Background: An on-the-go top prospect over the past couple of seasons. The Mets drafted the well-built right-hander out of Kempner High School in 2018. A little more than a year later New York flipped the former second round pick, along with Anthony Kay, to the Blue Jays for All-Star right-hander Marcus Stroman. Woods Richardson made it two years in Toronto’s farm system – with one of those years via the COVID-shutdown – before he was dealt away to Minnesota, along with Austin Martin, for two-time All-Star right-hander Jose Berrios. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound righty struggled through his worst professional season to date in 2021. Splitting time between both organizations’ Double-A affiliates, Woods Richardson tossed only 53.1 innings of work, fanning 77 but walking a whopping 34. He finished the year with an unsightly 5.91 ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Absolute bulldog that would make peak Orel Hershiser pause for a double take.
Scouting Report: Still intimidating hitters with his bulldog mentality; the problem for Woods Richardson was his declining command last season. The 2021 campaign started out on impressive footing – he posted a 48-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 30 innings – but after a disastrous start against Bowie at the end of June his season turned. Over his final eight games, split evenly between both organizations – he walked 23 and fanned 29 in 23.1 innings of work. The promising youngster has always shown a solid feel for the strike zone, so the Twins were wise to bet on the past, as opposed to the present. With regard to his repertoire, Woods Richardson’s fastball sat in the 91- to 93-mph range. He complements the above-average offering with a matching mid-70s curveball, a rare average, low-80s slider, and a plus-changeup. There’s #3/#4-type potential, assuming the command bounces back.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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6. Jhoan Duran, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Minnesota’s system was hit pretty hard with arm injuries – particularly right elbow woes, though shoulder issues popped up as well. Most notable minor leaguers to succumb to wonky arms: Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Josh Winder, and Jhoan Duran. A gas-throwing right-hander built like a tight end, Duran first tasted Double-A success two years ago – as a baby-faced 21-year-old. And he figured to play a role in the Twins 2021 plans, at least at some point in the year. But just 16 innings into his debut with the St. Paul Saints, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound hurler’s season prematurely ended. He finished the year with a disappointing 22-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For his career, the former Arizona farmhand is averaging 8.9 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings with a 3.99 ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some upper rotation caliber potential as long as he doesn’t take the Brusdar Graterol route.
Scouting Report: Reports indicate, at least for the time being, that Duran was able to avoid any type of surgical procedure – which is ideal, of course. But call me skeptical. These things never seem to work out well in the end. Heading into the 2020 season I had Duran showing a plus-plus fastball and a pair of plus offspeed pitches: a power curveball and a devastating changeup. If he can prove the elbow is up to the task, he may find himself as a late-inning arm for the Twins in 2022.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2022
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7. Matt Canterino, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Houston-based Rice University has the stigma of chewing through arms like a tank tread over terrain. And, unfortunately for the Twins, Canterino’s 2021 season looks like another cautionary tale. The 2019 second round pick got off to a blazing start to the year, posting a 35-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio while surrendering just a pair of earned runs over his first 18.0 innings. Then the arm issues popped up – for the first time that season. What was termed as a right-elbow strain shelved Canterino in late May and he wouldn’t come off the disabled list until early August. Upon his return, the 6-foot-2, 222-pound hurler made one dominant three-inning start against the Peoria Chiefs and then hit the DL with a strained right elbow – again. He finished the year by averaging 17.6 strike outs and just 1.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a laughable 0.78 ERA in 23.0 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Canterino increases his effectiveness through a lot of mechanical deception. It’s difficult to describe, but there’s a slight pause in his windup, very herky-jerky. Because Canterino throws strikes and sports two plus breaking balls, he’s likely going to quickly chew through the low levels of the minor leagues, so his first test likely won’t happen until he reaches Class AA. #4/#5-type potential.
Scouting Report: I scouted two of Canterino’s six appearances. He was as dominant – if not more dominant – than any other minor league hurler I saw in 2021. The fastball’s sneaky quick, a 55-grade, but what it lacks in sheer velocity, it makes up with in explosiveness. There were a ton of late hacks by solid minor league bats. His curveball would be the best offering for a lot of hurlers. It’s an easy plus-pitch. But it’s not even Canterino’s best breaking ball. His late-tilting, hard-biting slider is. It’s a borderline plus-plus pitch that’s death to left-hander hitters. His changeup bumped up from a below-average to better-than-average offering too. There’s plenty of arm-speed deception with fade and velocity difference. Canterino showed the talent to slide into the upper part of rotation. But I think the injuries are going to be a constant in his career.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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8. Yunior Severino, 2B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50 | 35 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: A bit of collateral damage from the Braves’ international free agency scandal several years back. Severino originally signed with the Atlanta for a hefty $1.9 million, but after he was granted free agency in 2017 the Twins swooped in and offered the switch-hitting infielder an even larger bonus: $2.5 million. The 6-foot-1, 189-pound second / third baseman, who got to keep the original bonus Atlanta handed him, split time between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids in 2021. In a combined 98 games, he batted .273/.372/.430 with 29 doubles, two triples, eight homeruns, and three stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average production line by a solid 22%.
Scouting Report: Severino’s overall numbers (.245/.347/.393) with Fort Myers in Low-A are skewed significantly by a poor May. He batted a lowly .194/.306/.290 through his first 17 games with the Mighty Mussels. From June 1st through the end of his tenure with the club he hit .263/.362/.431. And he upped the ante even further once he got to High-A (.321/.414/.493). There’s the potential to develop 20-homer pop, but he needs to elevate the ball more frequently. Solid patience, but not enough to compensate for some bloated swing-and-miss tendencies. He’s raw defensively, though likely better suited for third base. He could be a solid complementary player, something like a young Eduardo Escobar (.270/.335/.490).
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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9. Joe Ryan, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Maybe we’ll look back on the summer of 2020, not as the return of minor league baseball from its COVID-induced hibernation, but as the Summer of Substance. Grip, tackiness, sticky stuff. Substance. And Joe Ryan, mid-round pick out of California State University, Stanislaus, made one hell of an observation as he pitched for Team USA last year. As quoted by Hannah Keyser of Yahoo! Sports, Ryan remarked: “It’s the best ball in the world. They need this ball over in America. It is amazing. It’s perfect. I love throwing with it, all the pitchers love throwing it.” In terms of his on-field work stateside, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound right-hander made 14 appearances between Tampa Bay’s and Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliates, throwing 66.0 innings, recording an impeccable 92-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He made five starts with the Twins as well, averaging 10.1 strikeouts and just 1.7 walks per nine innings. Minnesota acquired Ryan with Drew Strotman for future Hall of Famer Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: If a secondary pitch – or two – ticks up or if he shows an increased level of confidence in them, Ryan has the ceiling as a #4-type arm.
Scouting Report: It takes some gumption to (A) trade with the Tampa Bay Rays, (B) acquire an arm from said trade, and (C) not get absolutely fleeced. As for Ryan, his fastball looked like it lost a bit of life, and half of a grade, during his 2021 summer of dominance. It was in the low-90s in Minnesota. But…he found the strike zone with unparalleled consistency. His curveball’s a slow, loopy low-70s offering. His changeup is nothing special. But his slider does as a second above-average offering. He’s 26 and destined for a #4/#5-type starting gig.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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10. Noah Miller, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/50 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The younger brother of Cleveland infielder prospect Owen Miller. The younger Miller would eventually best his older brother’s draft status by two rounds. Noah, a commit to the University of Alabama, was taken with the last pick in the supplemental first round, 36th overall, and signed to a deal worth $1.7 million – more than a million dollars more than Owen received from the Padres three years earlier. For his debut, the Ozaukee High School product batted a disappointing .238/.316/.369 with three doubles, one triple, and a pair of long balls in the Florida Complex League. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 15% below the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Simple, low maintenance swing from both sides of the plate. He’s more geared towards shooting line drives around the diamond, but can occasionally put a jolt into one. He’s not fast, but quick. He’s not strong, but twitchy. He reminds me of a young Cole Tucker. Miller profiles as a low ceiling / high floor type of prospect.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
